Fix What Matters
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Fix What Matters

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A deep look inside real-world vulnerability, remediation and breach stats.

A deep look inside real-world vulnerability, remediation and breach stats.

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Fix What Matters Fix What Matters Presentation Transcript

  • Fix What Matters Ed Bellis & Michael Roytman
  • Nice To Meet You • CoFounder Risk I/O About Us Risk I/O • Former CISO Orbitz • Contributing Author: Beautiful Security • CSO Magazine/Online Writer • Data-Driven Vulnerability Intelligence Platform • DataWeek 2012 Top Security Innovator • 3 Startups to Watch - Information Week • InfoSec Island Blogger • 16 Hot Startups - eWeek Ed Bellis • Naive Grad Student • Still Plays With Legos • Barely Passed Regression Analysis • Once Jailbroke His iPhone 3G • Has Coolest Job In InfoSec Michael Roytman
  • Starting From Scratch “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.” -Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, 1887
  • Starting From Scratch
  • Starting From Scratch Academia! • GScholar! • JSTOR! • IEEE! • ProQuest! InfoSec Blogs! • CSIOs! • Pen Testers! • Threat Reports! • SOTI/DBIR! ! Twitter! • Thought Leaders (you know who you are)! • BlackHats! • Vuln Researchers! Primary Sources! • MITRE! • OSVDB! • NIST CVSS Committee(s)! • Internal Message Boards for ^! Text CISOs
  • Data Fundamentalism Don’t Ignore What a Vulnerability Is: Creation Bias (http://blog.risk.io/2013/04/data-fundamentalism/) Jerico/Sushidude @ BlackHat (https://www.blackhat.com/us-13/briefings.html#Martin) Luca Allodi - CVSS DDOS (http://disi.unitn.it/~allodi/allodi-12-badgers.pdf):
  • Data Fundamentalism - What’s The Big Deal? ”Since 2006 Vulnerabilities have declined by 26 percent.” (http://csrc.nist.gov/groups/SNS/rbac/documents/vulnerability-trends10.pdf) “The total number of vulnerabilities in 2013 is up 16 percent so far when compared to what we saw in the same time period in 2012. ” (http://www.symantec.com/content/en/us/enterprise/other_resources/b-intelligence_report_06-2013.en-us.pdf)
  • What’s Good? Bad For Vulnerability Statistics: NVD, OSVDB, ExploitDB, CVSS, Patches, Microsoft Reports, etc, et al, and so on. Good For Vulnerability Statistics: Vulnerabilities.
  • What’s Good?
  • What’s Good?
  • What’s Good?
  • What’s Good?
  • What’s Good?
  • What’s Good?
  • Counterterrorism Known Groups Surveillance Threat Intel, Analysts Targets, Layouts Past Incidents, Close Calls
  • What’s Good?
  • Uh, Sports? Opposing Teams, Specific Players Gameplay Scouting Reports, Gametape Roster, Player Skills Learning from Losing
  • InfoSec?
  • Defend Like You’ve Done It Before Groups, Motivations Exploits Vulnerability Definitions Asset Topology, Actual Vulns on System Learning from Breaches
  • Work With What You’ve Got: Akamai, Safenet ExploitDB, Metasploit NVD, MITRE
  • Add Some Spice
  • Show Me The Money 23,000,000 Vulnerabilities! Across 1,000,000 Assets! Representing 9,500 Companies! Using 22 Unique Scanners!
  • Whatchu Know About Dat?(a) Duplication Vulnerability Density Remediation
  • Duplication 0 225,000 450,000 675,000 900,000 1,125,000 1,350,000 1,575,000 1,800,000 2,025,000 2,250,000 2 or more scanners 3 or more 4 or more 5 or more 6 or more
  • Duplication - Lessons From a CISO We Have: F(Number of Scanners) => Number of Duplicate Vulnerabilities We Want: F(Number of Scanners) => Vulnerability Coverage Make Decisions At The Margins! <---------Good Luck! 0 25.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
  • Density Type of Asset ~Count Hostname 20,000 Netbios 1000 IP Address 200,000 File 10,000 Url 5,000 Hostname Netbios IP File Url 0 22.5 45.0 67.5 90.0
  • CVSS And Remediation Metrics 0 375.0 750.0 1125.0 1500.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average Time To Close By Severity OldestVulnerability By Severity
  • CVSS And Remediation - Lessons From A CISO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Remediation/Lack Thereof, by CVSS NVD Distribution by CVSS
  • The Kicker - Live Breach Data 1,500,000 ! Vulnerabilities Related to Live Breaches Recorded! June, July 2013 !
  • CVSS And Remediation - Nope 0 1750.0 3500.0 5250.0 7000.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Oldest BreachedVulnerability By Severity
  • CVSS - A VERY General Guide For Remediation - Yep 0 37500.0 75000.0 112500.0 150000.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 OpenVulns With Breaches Occuring By Severity
  • The One Billion Dollar Question Probability(You Will Be Breached On A Particular Open Vulnerability)? 1.98% =(Open Vulnerabilities | Breaches Occurred On Their CVE)/(Total Open Vulnerabilities)
  • I Love It When You Call Me Big Data RANDOMVULN CVSS 10 CVSS 9 CVSS 8 CVSS 6 CVSS 7 CVSS 5 CVSS 4 Has Patch 0 0.01000 0.02000 0.03000 0.04000 Probability AVulnerability Having Property X Has Observed Breaches
  • Enter The Security Mendoza Line Wouldn’t it be nice if we had something that helped us divide who we considered “Amateur” and who we considered “Professional”? http://riskmanagementinsight.com/riskanalysis/? p=294 Josh Corman expands the Security Mendoza Line “Compute power grows at the rate of doubling about every 2 years” “Casual attacker power grows at the rate of Metasploit” http://blog.cognitivedissidents.com/2011/11/01/intro- to-hdmoores-law/ Alex Hutton comes up with Security Mendoza Line
  • I Love It When You Call Me Big Data RandomVuln CVSS 10 Exploit DB Metasploit MSP+EDB 0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 Probability AVulnerability Having Property X Has Observed Breaches
  • Be Better Than The Gap
  • I Love It When You Call Me Big Data Spray and Pray => 2% CVSS 10 => 4% Metasploit + ExploitDB => 30%
  • Thank You Follow Us Blog: http://blog.risk.io Twitter: @mroytman @ebellis @riskio We’re Hiring! http://www.risk.io/jobs