An updated presentation of the short head theory which is kind of the opposite of the long tail theory.
The update includes the short head of mobile apps and 2 new rules of the short head.
The short head in general -
The long tail theory from the early days of the internet (2000+) claimed that “our culture and economy is increasingly shifting away from a focus on a relatively small number of “hits” (mainstream products and markets) at the head of the demand curve and toward a huge number of niches in the tail.”
The short head proves otherwise - in the last several years we have moved towards an even smaller number of mega-hits!
The present is not selling less of more - it is selling much more of much less!
This is the short head - http://www.theshorthead.com/
2. n’t think it’s realistic to try and topple ‘Titanic’ off its perch
I don’t think it’s realistic to try and topple ‘Titanic’ off its perch
James Cameron, Dec 2009
4. 18 movies ever have reached 1 billion dollars until today.
13 of them were released in the last 6 years
Rank Title Studio Worldwide Year^
1 Avatar Fox $2,782.3 2009^
2 Titanic Par. $2,186.8 1997^
3 Marvel's The Avengers BV $1,518.6 2012
4 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $1,341.5 2011
5 Iron Man 3 BV $1,215.4 2013
6 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $1,123.8 2011
7 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King NL $1,119.9 2003^
8 Skyfall Sony $1,108.6 2012
9 The Dark Knight Rises WB $1,084.4 2012
10 Frozen BV $1,072.4 2013
11 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $1,066.2 2006
12 Toy Story 3 BV $1,063.2 2010
13 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides BV $1,045.7 2011
14 Jurassic Park Uni. $1,029.2 1993^
15 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $1,027.0 1999^
16 Alice in Wonderland (2010) BV $1,025.5 2010
17 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey WB $1,017.0 2012
18 The Dark Knight WB $1,004.6 2008^
5. Also most of all times weekend opening records are from
the last several years
6. The #1 rule of the Short Head:
Hits are now Mega-hits
7. The #2 rule of the Short Head:
The long tail is dead
24. You’re at the point
right now where a
studio would rather
invest $250 million in
one film for a real shot
at the brass ring, than
make a whole bunch
of really interesting,
deeply personal —
and even maybe
historical — projects
that may get lost in the
shuffle because there’s
only 24 hours”.
26. Every Avenue is a pop
punk band from
Marysville, Michigan.
established in 2002.
228,000 likes on Facebook,
Millions of views on YouTube
27. One of the fastest growing artists in touring.
From 11 tour dates they had in 2007, to 140 in 2010
28. “Industry has a lot to do with things…
The industry is tough, especially for a
band like us, a rock band right now.
We’re not bitter about it or anything
like,“Fuck the music industry”, that’s
the last thing we’re thinking.We’re all
continuing to do music”
Few months ago they decided to break up.
29. This is what has happened to the live music shows
revenues throughout the years …
30. “The music industry is a microcosm of what is happening
in the U.S. economy at large. We are increasingly
becoming a “winner-take-all economy,” a phenomenon
that the music industry has long experienced....The
lucky and the talented – and it is often hard to tell the
difference – have been doing better and better, while the
vast majority has struggled to keep up.
These same forces are affecting the music industry.
Indeed, the music industry is an extreme
example of a “super star economy,” in
which a small number of artists take
home the lion’s share of income.”
Prof. Alan Krueger
31.
32. The #4 rule of the Short Head:
If there is a long tail we might find
it… but that is about it
37. “For t-shirts I think we’re probably still
close to that 20% of the shirt produces
80% of the revenue... Our business
is certainly driven by hits…
That being said, we still have a nice
benefit from having a big catalog to
take advantage of the long tail as
well…”
Josh Abramson, CEO
47. 40% of Apps earned less than 100$ per
month from ads, another 30% earned
more than 100$ but less than 500$ per
month. 2% earned more than 20,000$
, Sep 2012
48. Less than 0.01 Percent of
Consumer Mobile Apps Will Be
Considered a Financial Success
by Their Developers
, Sep 2012
68. Social proof
We assume that the people around us know better
and therefore by imitating what they are
doing/buying/watching/wearing/listening to
we believe that we behave correctly
69. ”Want to hear something
weird? Always.”
Howfunnyisitwithoutthefakelaugh?
70. positive social influence increased the
likelihood of positive ratings by 32%
and created accumulating positive
herding that increased final ratings by
25% on average.
The science magazine, a research of Lev Muchnik, Sinan Aral and Sean J.Taylor
71. What does it say about the “wisdom of
the crowds” if the crowd is not really a
crowd but a small group of people
who spoke first and a big group of
people that followed and accepted
what the first group said?
74. Diffusion of innovations
Professor Everett M. Rogers
A theory that explains how innovations
(new stuff) are being spread through
the communication channels over time
and among the members of a social
system
75. Bass diffusion model
Professor Frank Bass
The adoption as a function of external influence such as PR etc (p)
and internal influence meaning word of mouth between those who
have adopted and those who might adopt (q)