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Michael Moe, CFA
Founder, GSV Asset Management
@michaelmoe
Finding the Next Facebook
Every day in
America 1,100
new businesses
are formed.
Source: Gallup, U.S. Census Bureau
Every day in
America 1,300
businesses fail.
Source: Gallup, U.S. Census Bureau
In 2014, Venture
Capitalists invested in
4,356 companies.
Source: NVCA, PwC
In 2014, just 115 venture-
backed companies went
public….
Source: Thomson Reuters, NVCA
…and that was the best
year since 2000.
Source: Dow Jones Venture Source, Fenwick & West
20% Chance Company
Survives First 3 Years
What kind of nut
would start a
business?
Name that “Nut”
Lost job in ’32
Defeated in race for State
Legislature in ’32
Failed in business ‘33
He had a nervous
breakdown in ’41
Defeated in races for:
Congress in ‘43
Senate in ‘55
Vice President in ‘56
Senate in ‘58
And the answer is…
Teachers told him he was
“too stupid to learn anything”
Fired from his first two jobs for
lack of productivity
Thomas Edison
$272 Billion Market Cap
He was fired by a newspaper editor
because he "lacked imagination
and had no good ideas"
Launched film studios in 1920 and
1921… both went bankrupt
$195 Billion Market Cap
$233 Billion
Market Cap
“In order to earn better than a
‘C’, the idea must be feasible.”
-Yale professor response to a
paper he submitted in 1965
Whatever it Takes
Wilson turned FedEx’s last $5,000
into $27,000 at the Black Jack table
$49 Billion Market Cap
Howard Schultz
CEO, Starbucks
$82 Billion Market Cap
Dyslexic
Turned down by 53 banks for a
business loan
Founded 8 Billion Dollar
Businesses
The Power of Growth
Top 25 Stocks
2005 - 2015
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24
25
Median Stock CAGR
31%
Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
Median EPS CAGR
39%
Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
Median P/E, 2005
36x
Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
Median Market Cap, 2005
$361 million
Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
Conclusion
1) Focus on Companies
with the Highest Growth,
not the Bargain Basement
Conclusion 2
2) Focus on Small
Companies — SIZE
FORGES AN ANCHOR
“People may bet
on hourly wiggles
of the market but
it’s the earnings
that waggle the
wiggle long term.”

-Peter Lynch
$0.00$
$1.00$
$2.00$
$3.00$
$4.00$
$5.00$
$6.00$
$7.00$
$8.00$
$0$
$20$
$40$
$60$
$80$
$100$
$120$
$140$
Feb00102005$
Aug00102005$
Feb00102006$
Aug00102006$
Feb00102007$
Aug00102007$
Feb00102008$
Aug00102008$
Feb00102009$
Aug00102009$
Feb00102010$
Aug00102010$
Feb00102011$
Aug00102011$
Feb00102012$
Aug00102012$
Feb00102013$
Aug00102013$
Feb00102014$
Aug00102014$
Feb00102015$
Apple 

2005-2015
Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
Stock Price CAGR: 36%
EPS CAGR: 55%
StockPrice
EPS
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Dec-31-2004
Jun-30-2005
Dec-31-2005
Jun-30-2006
Dec-31-2006
Jun-30-2007
Dec-31-2007
Jun-30-2008
Dec-31-2008
Jun-30-2009
Dec-31-2009
Jun-30-2010
Dec-31-2010
Jun-30-2011
Dec-31-2011
Jun-30-2012
Dec-31-2012
Jun-30-2013
Dec-31-2013
Jun-30-2014
Dec-31-2014
Monster 

2005-2015
Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
Stock Price CAGR: 47%
EPS CAGR: 37%
StockPrice
EPS
$0.00$
$0.50$
$1.00$
$1.50$
$2.00$
$2.50$
$3.00$
$3.50$
$4.00$
$4.50$
$5.00$
$0$
$100$
$200$
$300$
$400$
$500$
$600$
Dec-31-2004
Jun-30-2005
Dec-31-2005
Jun-30-2006
Dec-31-2006
Jun-30-2007
Dec-31-2007
Jun-30-2008
Dec-31-2008
Jun-30-2009
Dec-31-2009
Jun-30-2010
Dec-31-2010
Jun-30-2011
Dec-31-2011
Jun-30-2012
Dec-31-2012
Jun-30-2013
Dec-31-2013
Jun-30-2014
Dec-31-2014
Netflix 

2005-2015
Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
Stock Price CAGR: 39%
EPS CAGR: 35%
StockPrice
EPS
$0.00$
$5.00$
$10.00$
$15.00$
$20.00$
$25.00$
$30.00$
$35.00$
$40.00$
$0$
$200$
$400$
$600$
$800$
$1,000$
$1,200$
$1,400$
$1,600$
Dec03102004$
Jun03002005$
Dec03102005$
Jun03002006$
Dec03102006$
Jun03002007$
Dec03102007$
Jun03002008$
Dec03102008$
Jun03002009$
Dec03102009$
Jun03002010$
Dec03102010$
Jun03002011$
Dec03102011$
Jun03002012$
Dec03102012$
Jun03002013$
Dec03102013$
Jun03002014$
Dec03102014$
Priceline 

2005-2015
Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
Stock Price CAGR: 47%
EPS CAGR: 54%
StockPrice
EPS
Growth
Double-Edged Sword
Where would you rather
invest $100K?
High Octane Fund
Year 1 Up 100%
Year 2 Down 30%
Steady Eddy Fund
Year 1 Up 20%
Year 2 Up 20%
YEAR 1 YEAR 2
Return Value Return Value
High
Octane
100%
Steady
Eddy
20%
Start
$100K
YEAR 1 YEAR 2
Return Value Return Value
High
Octane
100% $200K
Steady
Eddy
20% $120K
Start
$100K
YEAR 1 YEAR 2
Return Value Return Value
High
Octane
100% $200K (30%)
Steady
Eddy
20% $120K 20%
Start
$100K
YEAR 1 YEAR 2
Return Value Return Value
High
Octane
100% $200K (30%) $140K
Steady
Eddy
20% $120K 20%
Start
$100K
YEAR 1 YEAR 2
Return Value Return Value
High
Octane
100% $200K (30%) $140K
Steady
Eddy
20% $120K 20% $144K
Start
$100K
Down To Break Even
-10% 11%
-30% 43%
-50% 100%
-70% 333%
-90% 1000%
Breaking Even
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1/2/90
1/2/91
1/2/92
1/2/93
1/2/94
1/2/95
1/2/96
1/2/97
1/2/98
1/2/99
1/2/00
1/2/01
1/2/02
1/2/03
1/2/04
1/2/05
1/2/06
1/2/07
1/2/08
1/2/09
1/2/10
1/2/11
1/2/12
1/2/13
1/2/14
1/2/15
NASDAQ 2000: 5,000
Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
1
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1/2/90
1/2/91
1/2/92
1/2/93
1/2/94
1/2/95
1/2/96
1/2/97
1/2/98
1/2/99
1/2/00
1/2/01
1/2/02
1/2/03
1/2/04
1/2/05
1/2/06
1/2/07
1/2/08
1/2/09
1/2/10
1/2/11
1/2/12
1/2/13
1/2/14
1/2/15
NASDAQ 2000: 1,200
Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
2
1
-76%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1/2/90
1/2/91
1/2/92
1/2/93
1/2/94
1/2/95
1/2/96
1/2/97
1/2/98
1/2/99
1/2/00
1/2/01
1/2/02
1/2/03
1/2/04
1/2/05
1/2/06
1/2/07
1/2/08
1/2/09
1/2/10
1/2/11
1/2/12
1/2/13
1/2/14
1/2/15
NASDAQ Today: 5,000
Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
3
2
+417%
1
If you were a consultant
for a month, how would
you prefer to be paid?
$10,000 per week…
…or 1 PENNY on day 1,
doubling every day?
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31
$10,000
$0
$10K
¢1
Day 1
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31
$10,000$10,000
$0$0 ¢31
$10K
Day 5
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31
$20,000
$10,000$10,000
$10$0$0 $10
$20K
Day 10
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31
$20,000$20,000
$10,000$10,000
$328$10$0$0 $328
$20K
Day 15
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31
$30,000
$20,000$20,000
$10,000$10,000 $21,000
$328$10$0$0
$21K
$30K
Day 21
$0
$5,250,000
$10,500,000
$15,750,000
$21,000,000
Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31
$40,000$30,000$20,000$20,000$10,000$10,000
$21,474,836
$21,000$328$10$0$0 $40K
$21 millionDay 31
Compound
interest is the
eighth wonder
of the world.
He who
understands
it, earns it…
…he who
doesn’t, pays it.
Rule of 72
Interest Rate Years to Double $1 in 30 Years
3% 24 $2.43
6% 12 $5.74
9% 8 $13.27
12% 6 $29.96
15% 5 $66.21
25% 3 $807.79
Rule of 72
Island of Manhattan, 1626
Island of Manhattan, 1626
Bought for
$24…

Good deal?
Island of Manhattan, 1626
Value Today at
5% Annual
Return

$4 billion
Island of Manhattan, 1626
Value Today at
7.5% Annual
Return

$36.9 trillion
Island of Manhattan, 1626
Value Today at
10% Annual
Return

$275
quadrillion
2000 2015
$0.04
$7.03
Cost of Computing (per MM transistors)
Source: Deloitte
2000 2015
$0.02
$4.77
Cost of Storage (per GB)
Source: Deloitte
1990: $20K										Today: $1
Source: Deloitte
Moore’s Law
Source: Intel
Global Internet Users (billions)
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
3.0
2.2
1.5
1.0
0.7
0.3
0.1
21% CAGR
Source: Internet Live Stats
2.1B Smart Phone Users
Source: Strategy Analytics
2012 2013 2014 (P) 2015 (P) 2016 (P) 2017 (P)
270
225
180
140
100
70
Android and iOS App Downloads (billions)
Source: Gartner
31% CAGR
Human Genome
Project 1990
Cost to Map Genome in
2003: $100M
Source: NIH
Cost to Map Genome in
2015: $100
Source: NIH, 23andMe, GSV Asset Management
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013
Moore’s Law in Solar - Swanson’s Law
Costs decline has enabled solar to reach grid parity
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Source: Facebook, World Bank
Population Size
1.4B 1.24B1.35B
Market Cap: $245 Billion
Tweets per Day
500M
Source: Statistic Brain, GSV Asset Management
Source: Google
1 Billion Viewers Watching

6 Billion Hours Per Month
586 Million
Minutes
Talking 

Per Day
Source: Wall Street Journal
Total Number of Twitter Accounts
[INSERT]Source: Facebook
64 Billion
WhatsApp
Messages
per Day
Total Number of Twitter Accounts
[INSERT]
700 Million Snaps per Day
Source: SnapChat
None of These
Companies
Existed Before
9/11
Total Unicorns, 2000: 1
Source: Fortune
Total Unicorns, Today:
97
Source: Wall Street Journal
UBERcorns… $10B+
Source: Wall Street Journal
Bubble vs. Boom
NASDAQ Top 10: 2000
Company P/E
Microsoft 57x
Cisco 127x
Intel 43x
Oracle 103x
Sun Microsystems 85x
Dell 57x
MCI Worldcom 22x
Chartered Semiconductor 53x
Qualcomm 123x
Yahoo! 418x
Source: Barron’s
NASDAQ 100 P/E 2000: 105x
Source: CNN Money
NASDAQ Top 10: 2015
Company P/E
Apple 15x
Google 19x
Microsoft 16x
Facebook 30x
Amazon NM
Intel 14x
Gilead Sciences 11x
Cisco 13x
Comcast 17x
Amgen 17x
Source: Barron’s
NASDAQ 100 P/E 2015: 19x
Source: GSV Asset Management
Median Time to IPO
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
3 Years
Median Time to IPO
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
3 Years
Today:
7 Years
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
$18M
Median Annual Revenue at IPO
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
$18M
Median Annual Revenue at IPO
Today:
$68M
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
370 million
(6%)
Internet Access
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
370 million
(6%)
Internet Access
Today:
3.1 billion
(43%)
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
60 million
(1%)
Broadband Access
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
60 million
(6%)
Today:
2.3 billion
(32%)
Broadband Access
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
180 million
(3%)
PC Penetration
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
180 million
(3%)
PC Penetration
Today:
1.4 billion
(20%)
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
740 million
(12%)
Mobile Phone Penetration
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
740 million
(12%)
Mobile Phone Penetration
Today:
5.2 billion
(73%)
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
Smart Phone Penetration
2000:
0
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
Today:
2.1 billion
(28%)
Smart Phone Penetration
2000:
0
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
0
App Downloads
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
0
Today:
140+ billion
App Downloads
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
6%
Digital Natives in Workforce
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
6%
Digital Natives in Workforce
Today:
35%
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
1.4 billion
Global Middle Class
Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune
2000:
1.4 billion
Global Middle Class
Today:
2.5 billion
Old Global Innovation Map
London
“Risk isn’t my cup
of tea.”
New York City
“If it’s such a good
idea, why hasn’t it
been done already.”
Minneapolis
“Looks promising…
Let’s test it.”
San Francisco
“Can I write you a
check?”
Shanghai
“Great idea. Now it’s
my idea.”
New Global Innovation Map
Austin
Boston
Chicago
Sao Paulo
Mumbai
Shanghai
Dubai
Global Silicon Valley
ImagiNation
Blackberry Apple
$70$70
2007 Market Cap: Apple vs. Blackberry
Source: Capital IQ, GSV Asset Management
Blackberry Apple
$730
$5
2015 Market Cap: Apple vs. Blackberry
Source: Capital IQ, GSV Asset Management
Founded: 1921
Founded: 2009
Market Value: $41 Billion
St. Peter ’s Sq uare : 2 0 0 5
St. Peter ’s Sq uare : 2 0 1 3
Founded: 1888
Market Value: Bankrupt
Founded: 2011
Market Value: $16 Billion
Founded: 1957
Market Cap: $8 Billion
Founded: 2008
Market Value: $13 Billion++
Megatrends
Social-Mobile
Cloud+BigData
Marketplaces
Sustainability
EducationTechnology
Investment Themes
PEOPLE PRODUCT
POTENTIALPREDICTABILITY
Megatrends
EvaluationOwnership
4Ps
DCF, P/S
Datapoints + Milestones
Growth Drives Enterprise Value
Themes
Ranking of Companies
Underwriting Investment
Confirmation, On Track
Megawinners
Industry
Ten Commandments
Company
Valuation
Short Term
Long Term
Identifying and Investing in the Stars of Tomorrow

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