Simulación de Incendios

1. Operational simulation of forest fires Santiago Monedero & Joaquín Ramirez Maths & Fire Zaragoza 15/06/09 Ingeniería del territorio http://www.tecnosylva.com

2. p resentation outline 2. Models 5. FFDSS GIS implementation 3. Rothermel implementation 4. Operational approach GIS 1. Introduction

5. Basic equations: Local Radiation Radiation Diffusion depends on temperature Wind effects: Depends not only on wind but also on flame tilt There is no explicit Radiation term u: temperature e: enthalpy y: fuel amount G(u): Multivalued operator for moisture f(u,y) reaction function (Arrenius type) Vertical temperature loos

6. Basic equations: Local Radiation Wind effects: Inside radiation term r u: temperature e: enthalpy y: fuel amount G(u): Multivalued operator for moisture r Explicit radiation Multivalued operator Moleding radiation and moisture content in fire spread L. Ferragut, M. Asensio, S. Monedero Commun. Numer. Meth. Engng 2007; 23 :819–833 Published online 19 October 2006 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/cnm.927 Radiation and moisture method presented in:

10. Rothermel Implementation mdt moisture Fuel V average Rothermel (Behaveplus) ROS Cost layer= time = L/ROS Rate of Spread Implemented based on Rothermels, Albini paper Time evolution Implemented based on an enhaced Esri’s Pathdistance function (Where the time variable is the accumulative cost) With no extra hard work we obtain: graphs for homogeneus conditions like BehavePlus Potencial risk analysis like FlamMap

11. FireLAB evolution : FSPro, FPA 1 fire Several fires 1 meteo scenario hundreds of meteo scenarios FARSITE FSPro FPA FlamMap

13. High resolution fuel models

14. Fuel parameters OOA InfoGIS: SAD en Incendios Forestales

15. USERS ASSESSMENT RESULTS: Fuel Parameters

17. Firelab Wind models Comparation of a Farsite simulation for low and high wind resolution (in white the actual perimeter of the fire). Reference: The impact of high resolution wind field simulations on the accuracy of fire growth predictions (B. Butler, J. Forthofer, M. Finney)

18. Firelab Wind models

19. High Definition Wind Simulacion por FIRETEC. Referen ia: J. L. Winterkamp, R. R. Linn, Jonah J. Colman, William S. Smith M.I Asensio, L. Ferragut, J. Simon, (2005). "A convective model for fire spread simulation." Applied Mathematical Letters 18, pp. 673-677, 2005 Initial model presented on: Enhaced with punctual Wind value assimilation

22. Synergies spread Graphs Risk Rothermel Physical FEM Wind Spread

24. InfoSIM schema 19-20 October 2006, Page Fire Platform Meeting

27. Integration of InfoSIM inside InfoGIS: InfoSIM

28. Results example InfoSIM

29. Comparing with reality InfoSIM

30. Operational results: real time HR 3D GIS

31. Input s - Outputs Propagadores de Incendios Forestales - Nationwide spatial database - HR fuel data – next steps: LIDAR ¡ - HR firebreaks: BCN25 - Formats -Raster -Vector - Imagery (MODIS NDVI) -Generic GIS, 3D OGC KML and FIRELAB ( Farsite) -Generation of graphics, reports, (same as Farsite, Behaveplus & Flammap) INPUTS OUTPUTS

32. SIGYM (METEOGRID) Integration of METEO GIS input data

33. motor de cálculo Propagadores de Incendios Forestales - Simulaciones Condiciones variables en el tiempo Humedad vivo Hora Humedad Muerto Viento Modulo Viento dirección 1 2 3 8 8 9 10 10 11 30 90 150 60

34. Firebraks trea tment Propagadores de Incendios Forestales 0 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Anchura (metros) 0 R0 ROS = ROS 0 * Parameter_firebreak Null value: No effect High values : Low width, high effect

35. c alculation engine Propagadores de Incendios Forestales - Adustment regional/ local factor (Farsite) ROS = ROS * Parametro_fuel - Fuel Model Inputs Rothermel Albini Custom Burgan Changes fuel behaviour,dep. experience Comb 1 1 2 0.3 3 0.6 4 0.8 11 1.7

36. c alculation engine Propagadores de Incendios Forestales - 3 different “pathdistance” temporal evolution -Pathdistance standard 8 y 16 directions -Pathdistance 12 autoselecctable directions

37. Analisys modules Propagadores de Incendios Forestales - Post-análisis (like Farsite) Fuel surface / time Perimeter / time – for operation plans Expansion speed (Vx,Vy) Velocidad del “centro de masas” del incendio Comparation with real perimeters - Pre-análisis (like BehavePlus) ROS, Flame length, intensity depending on Moisture1, moisture10, moisture100 Moisture live, wind & slope

38. Aut omated anali sys Propagadores de Incendios Forestales - Capacity of extinction automated calculations Configurable ROS, FL,Intensity – Eficiency (vs real data) + + - Risk Indexes ROS FL Intensity

39. Operati onal use: UME 3 Level CPX December 16th-17th 2008, Page Final Review - Toulouse TOA analisys Cofrentes CPX UME Level 3 exercise (Valencia, Spain, april 2008)

40. Time for operational propagation tools ¡