1. Look Asia Project
January 2012

2. Analysis
Oil Consumption - World and Asia
Oil Production - World and Asia
Oil Refinery
Crude Oil Export Direction Shift – Colombia
Necessity of The Project from Korea’s Standpoint
Necessity of The Project from Colombia’s
Standpoint
Outlook for Colombia’s Oil to Access Asian
Market

3. Oil Consumption - World and Asia
 World oil consumption and production - 85m b/d (’08) projected to rise to 112m b/d (‘35) –
increase of 31%↑
 Changing ratio of oil consumption by region between 2008 and 2035
 Asia (25%→43%), N. America (24%→27%), Europe (21%→21%)
 China occupies 10% of world oil consumption (’08) but is projected to rise 15% (’35)
 India projected to have highest annual growth rate of 3.5% of any country (up 1% world)
Prospects of Oil Consumption of Asia (’08-’35) (m b/d)
Consumption of Oil by
Region in 2025 Growth
2008 2015 2025 2035
Rate(%)
N. America 7.8 12.1 15.6 16.9 2.9%
Asia China
(3.8) (8.1) (10.8) (11.6) (4.2%)
25.8% Japan 5.0 4.3 4.7 4.5 -0.4%
38.5%
Korea 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 0.7%
3.0 3.8 5.7 7.5 3.5%
20.0% India
Europe (2.1) (2.8) (4.6) (6.4) (4.2%)
Total 13 17.5 22.5 25.1 0.01%
Source : IEA (International Energy Outlook, 2011) * ( ) indicates the volume of oil imports
Look Asia Project 3

4. Oil Production - World
 Oil production by region projected in 2035 - OPEC (47%), N. America and Europe (each
21%)
 Highest annual growth rate in Mid. America is projected to rise by 2.9% (1% for the world)
 Estimated growth rate by Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) employing macro historical
data
 Korea (2.08%), China (4.3%), Japan (-1.7%), India (3.7%), USA (-1.2%)
Projection of Oil Production by region (2008-2035) (m b/d) Oil Consumption Trends
Annual 16000
2008 2015 2035 growth 14000 China
rate(%)
12000
OPEC 35.6 38.6 46.9 1.0%
10000
N. America 15.0 16.7 21.1 1.3% USA
8000
Europe 17.8 18.4 21.0 1.1% 6000 India
Asia 8.7 8.6 9.3 0% 4000 Korea
Mid. America 7.4 9.1 12.5 2.9% 2000
Japan
Others 1.2 1.9 1.2 0% 0
Total World 85.7 93.3 111.2 1%
Source : IEA (International Energy Outlook, 2011)
Look Asia Project 4

5. Oil Refinery
 Ecopetrol of Colombia owns 5 refinery facilities, Barrancabermeja refinery is the biggest
producing 250,000 b/d
 Refinery capacity is 296,000 b/d - refined oil was 291,000 b/d in 2010 (utility ratio is 87%)
 The capacity over oil consumption is 99% in 2010 and 127% in 2015
 Therefore additional oil refinery facility is not required
 It is planned to expand refinery capacity
 Barrancabermeja from 205,000b/d in 2012 →250,000 until 2013
 Cartagena from 80,000b/d to 165,000b/d
(Unit: thousand b/d)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f
Oil
Consumption
288 279 296 300 307 315 324 331
Refinery
capacity
291 291 291 291 336 421 421 421
Source: Ecopetrol, BMI

6. Crude Oil Export Direction Shift - Colombia
 Shift in export direction from USA to Asia driven by
 Stagnant oil consumption in USA and increasing US imports from Canada
 Rapid growth of oil consumption in Asia (Korea, China and India)
 Evidence of shift since 2008
 Exports ratio 2008 (USA: 81%, Asia:1%) vs 2010 (USA: 74%, Asia: 9.3%)
USA
Annual growth
rate of 2008 - 2035 0.4%
consumption
2008 81%
Asia Exports ratio of
2010 74%
Colombia’s oil
2035 ?
Columbia
Korea+China+Japan+India
Annual growth
rate of 2008 - 2035 2.1%
consumption
2008 1%
Exports ratio of
2010 9.3%
Colombia’s oil
Look Asia Project
2035 ? 6

7. Outlook for Colombia’s Oil to Access Asian Market
 Predicted that oil production increase from 786,000 b/d (2010) to 1,000,000 b/d (2015)
 Identified oil reserves 6.7 billion barrels in Llanos and Putumayo basins
 Possible production of oil 980,000 b/d (2012)
 Plan to construct Pacific Pipeline
• 1,400km from Llanos basin to Tumaco port
• Pipeline capacity 450,000 b/d
2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
NE Asian Imports 1,355.4 1,511.4 1,773.0 2,081.0 2,329.9 2,597.6
Increasing Rate 156 417.6 725.6 974.5 1,242.2
Share (%) 28.8 10.8 6.2 4.6 3.6
Unit : 10,000 b/d

8. Necessity of The Project from Korea’s Standpoint
 Korea, is ranked 5th in the world importation of oil and necessary to engage in
exploration overseas
• Too high dependency of oil imports from Middle East (82%) → Need to diversify
• Policy for an oil hub of East Asia with favorable ports and oil reserves facilities
• Perception of Korean Gov’t on overseas oil development → Strong policy drive of
the Gov’t
 Advantage of oil hub in East Asia(China,  Lack of investment experience in South
Japan and India) America
 Appropriate oil logistics  Expensive transport cost due to long
infrastructure(storage facility and ports) distance
 Know-how of overseas infrastructure S W
construction)
O T
 High growth of oil demand in East Asia  Large-scale overseas’ oil development of
 Need for oil imports diversification China
 Increasing interest of Colombia in oil  Continuous instability of socio-politics of
exports to Asia South America
Diversification of Oil Imports and Development of Overseas’ Oil

9. Necessity of The Project from Colombia’s Standpoint
 Colombia ranked 4th in South America in terms of oil production
• Abundant oil reserves (1.9 billion barrels) only 20% of total territory explored
• Pursuing strong policy for oil industry as a core industry with high growth rate
• Growing interest in in exporting oil to Asia market due to decline in oil exports to USA
 High economic growth rate (6% since 2009)  Unstable domestic security
 Abundant oil resource (1.9 billion barrels)  Delay in project process due to complicated
 Strong policy for oil industry assessment
 Growing interest in exporting to Asian market  Demand of Consortium with local companies
 Difficulties in financing
S W
O T
 Expanded investment in infrastructure due to  Intermittent guerrilla attacks on oil infrastructure
political stability  Frequent earthquakes in Andes mountains
 Abundant investment capital due to increasing
infra funds
Infrastructure Establishment for Diversifying Exports Countries