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Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update - Alex Körner, François Cuenot - International Energy Agency (IEA) - Transforming Transportation 2013 - EMBARQ and The World Bank

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Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update - Alex Körner, François Cuenot - International Energy Agency (IEA) - Transforming Transportation 2013 - EMBARQ and The World Bank

  1. 1. Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update First Results!!   Presented at Transforming Transportation 2013!!   Alex Körner, François Cuenot!!   International Energy Agency (IEA)!Transforming Transportation 2013!
  2. 2. Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy UpdateFirst ResultsAlex Körner, François CuenotTransforming Transportation, 18th January 2013 © OECD/IEA 2012
  3. 3. Contentn  Introductionn  Methodologyn  FE/CO2 Results by countryn  FE/CO2 Global resultsn  2010-2011 OECD deep-diven  New Fleet key technical characteristics evolutionn  Conclusions © OECD/IEA 2012
  4. 4. Introductionn  Update of the 2011 “International comparison of light-duty vehicle fuel economy and related characteristics” IEA-authored GFEI working papers: l Adding 2010 and 2011 l Adding Korea and Canada to cover G19 (KSA missing)n  sponsored by UNEP-raised GEF SSFs and EU commission grants.n  New report to be released in March © OECD/IEA 2012
  5. 5. Methodologyn  New vehicle registrations data from Polk l By brand, model, powertrain, fuel, power,…but: l Vehicle segment/class missing l Empty weight is missing l CO2/FE missing:n  Manual input based on model sales sampling l Satisfactory representativity when CO2/FE >75% of salesn  Making number match official numbers when available © OECD/IEA 2012
  6. 6. VehicleSegments © OECD/IEA 2012
  7. 7. Data sources for FE / CO2 informationn  No test cycle conversionCountry Publication  name DoE  /  EPA  Fuel  Economy  ratings US http://www.fueleconomy.gov/   轻型汽车燃料消耗量通告 通告日期 China http://gzly.miit.gov.cn:8090/datainfo/miit/babs2.jsp Car  Fuel  Data  Booklet UK http://www.vcacarfueldata.org.uk/ Consommation  conventionnelles  de  carburant  e t  é missions  de  gaz  carbonique France http://www2.ademe.fr/servlet/getDoc?cid=96&m=3&id=52820&p1=00&p2=12&ref=17597 Green  V ehicle  Guide  FactsheetsAustralia http://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au 自動車燃費一覧 Japan http://www.mlit.go.jp/jidosha/jidosha_mn10_000001.html Indicadores  de  Eficiencia  Energética  y  Emisiones  V ehiculares Mexico http://www.ecovehiculos.gob.mx/ Automobil  Revue  catalogue Swiss http://katalog.automobilrevue.ch/ 소비자 체감에 부합하는 새로운 연비표시 방법 확정 Korea http://bpms.kemco.or.kr/transport_2012/main/main.aspx © OECD/IEA 2012
  8. 8. gCO2 emissions per km for new PLDVs © OECD/IEA 2012
  9. 9. Fuel consumption per 100 km for newPLDVs - OECD © OECD/IEA 2012
  10. 10. 2010-11 progress deep dive Average  emissions  (gCO2/ Emission   Market   OECD   km)   reduc9on  rate   growth   2010   2011   2010  -­‐  2011    2010  -­‐  2011   France   130.5   127.7   -­‐2.1%   -­‐2.1%   Italy   132.7   129.5   -­‐2.4%   -­‐11.6%   EU  27   140.3   135.7   -­‐3.3%   -­‐9.6%   Japan   140.5   134.4   -­‐4.3%   -­‐16.4%   Turkey   145.2   139.3   -­‐4.1%   16.4%   UK   144.2   138.1   -­‐4.2%   -­‐4.4%   Germany   151.2   145.6   -­‐3.7%   8.8%   Chile   163.7   160.8   -­‐1.8%   22.4%   South  Korea   171.3   171.5   0.1%   0.6%   Mexico   186.2   180.8   -­‐2.9%   17.4%   Canada   190.5   189.6   -­‐0.4%   1.4%   USA   194.7   192.8   -­‐0.9%   9.9%   Australia   207.9   204.2   -­‐1.8%   -­‐2.6%   OECD   165.1   164.3   -­‐0.5%   -­‐1.8%   © OECD/IEA 2012
  11. 11. Fuel consumption per 100 km for newPLDVs – Non-OECD © OECD/IEA 2012
  12. 12. FE progress tracking vs. GFEI target Annual   Annual   Annual   Required   Required   2005 2008 2010 2011 2030 change   change   change   annual  change   annual  change   2005-­‐2008 2008-­‐2011 2005-­‐2011 2005-­‐2030 2012-­‐2030OECD  average 8.1 7.6 7.0 7.0 -­‐2.3% -­‐2.6% -­‐2.5%Non-­‐OECD  average 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 0.4% -­‐0.9% -­‐0.3%Global  average 8.0 7.6 7.2 7.1 -­‐1.8% -­‐1.9% -­‐1.9%GFEI  target 8.0 4.0 -­‐2.7% -­‐3%n  New vehicles in OECD almost achieve the GFEI annual fuel consumption reduction targetn  New vehicles in Non-OECD show a slight annual fuel consumption reduction over the last three yearsn  The global reduction rate is still far off the target due to a shift in market from OECD to non-OECDn  Each year lost makes the target harder to be reached © OECD/IEA 2012
  13. 13. PLDVs by segment 100% 90% Pick-­‐up/SUV 80% Van/LCV 70% Small  SUV/Van/LCV 60% F 50% E D 40% C 30% B 20% A 10% 0% 2005 2010 2011 2005 2008 2010 2011 2005 2008 2010 2011 2008 OECD Non-­‐OECD World © OECD/IEA 2012
  14. 14. FE by vehicle sizen  Shift towards bigger vehicle prevented FE improvement in non-OECD © OECD/IEA 2012
  15. 15. PLDVs by displacement 100% 90% 80% 70% >3200 2801-­‐3200 60% 2401-­‐2800 50% 2001-­‐2400 40% 1601-­‐2000 1201-­‐1600 30% 801-­‐1200 20% <800 unknown 10% 0% 2005 2008 2010 2011 2005 2008 2010 2011 2005 2008 2010 2011 OECD Non-­‐OECD World © OECD/IEA 2012
  16. 16. PLDVs by power 100% 90% 80% 70% >200 60% 151-­‐200 50% 101-­‐150 40% 71-­‐100 51-­‐70 30% <50 20% unknown 10% 0% 2005 2008 2010 2011 2005 2010 2011 2008 2010 2011 2005 2008 OECD Non-­‐OECD World © OECD/IEA 2012
  17. 17. LCV influence – country dependant © OECD/IEA 2012
  18. 18. Future updatesn  Engage countries/OEMs in providing their official registrations data for this work l Partially worked in Chile with the ICCT/CmCh baseline report l Links with Renault and the AAA (data provider for OICA)n  Parametric analysis to be done by KG Duleep using FIA Foundation fundingn  Cross-database access sharing with all GFEI partners © OECD/IEA 2012
  19. 19. Conclusionsn  Improvement rate has accelerated in OECD markets, and is almost matching the GFEI target rate l Policies (and GFEI actions) fruitfuln  In non-OECD, situation does not show much progress l More policies (and more GFEI actions) are needed, especially to limit vehicle size shift.n  Lot of potential analysis from the database l More resources would be welcome © OECD/IEA 2012
  20. 20. Thank Youfrancois.cuenot@iea.org © OECD/IEA 2012
  21. 21. Transforming Transportation 2013!!   Co-organized by EMBARQ and The World Bank!!   More information at:!! EMBARQ.org!! worldbank.org/transport!!   Questions? Comments? Contact us at embarq@wri.org!!   Follow us on Twitter: @EMBARQnetwork!Transforming Transportation 2013!

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