Panoramica sull’economia, sul mercato assicurativo e sul business dei Lloyd’s in Italia


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Panoramica sull’economia, sul mercato assicurativo e sul business dei Lloyd’s in Italia

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Panoramica sull’economia, sul mercato assicurativo e sul business dei Lloyd’s in Italia

  2. 2. © Lloyd’s MAIN EXPORT PARTNERS: Germany 13%, France 12%, US 6% (2011) MAIN IMPORT PARTNERS: Germany 17%, France 9%, China 8% (2011) MAIN EXPORTS: Engineering products, textiles and clothing, production machinery MAIN IMPORTS: Engineering products, chemicals, transport equipment GDP (PPP): US$ 1845bn (Global Rank #10) POPULATION: 61m (Global Rank #22) IMF CATEGORISATION: “Developed” FULL NAME / CAPITAL CITY: Italian Republic / Rome LANGUAGE: Italian Source: CIA World Factbook (2013) Source: CIA World Factbook (2013) Source: CIA World Factbook (2013), IMF (2012) Source: Prevention Web (2013) Source: Doing Business (2013), World Economic Forum (2013), Index of Economic Freedom (2013) 1 KEY FACTS 2 KEY STATISTICS 3 BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 4 INSURANCE ENVIRONMENT 5 LLOYD’S BUSINESS Key Facts DISASTER YEAR ECONOMIC COST (US$ x 1000) Earthquake 1980 20,000,000 Flood 1994 9,300,000 Flood 2000 8,000,000 Earthquake 1997 4,524,900 Extreme Temp. 2003 4,400,000 2012 Rank 2013 Rank Change in Rank EASE OF DOING BUSINESS: 87 73 14 COMPETITIVENESS: 43 42 1 FREEDOM FROM CORRUPTION: 68 67 1
  3. 3. © Lloyd’s 1 KEY FACTS 2 KEY STATISTICS 3 BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 4 INSURANCE ENVIRONMENT 5 LLOYD’S BUSINESS LLOYD’S PREMIUM Gross Signed Premiums (GSP) Gross Signed Premiums: in million US$; see Appendix for definitions BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP in Purchasing Power Parity in billion International US$ INSURANCE ENVIRONMENT Direct Gross Written Premiums (GWP) GWP in in billion US$ Gross Signed Premiums (GSP) Italy 2012 Insurance: Yes on a Freedom of Service Basis (except motor third party liability, surety and life insurance on an Establishment basis) Reinsurance: Yes Coverholders: Yes Gross Written Premiums (GWP) Italy 2011 Motor Accident & Health Property Liability MAT Miscellaneous Business Highlights Italy 2013 GDP per capita wealth: US$ 30.2k GDP real growth: -2% Population: 61.1 million Lloyd’s Trading Position Italy 2013 Gross Written Premiums: in billion US$ Download business, insurance, Lloyd’s statistics & trends and key data sources at Compare Gross Signed Premiums: in million US$; see Appendix for definitions 57% 15% 10% 15% 2% 2011 GWP US$ 50.7bn Source: IMF, (2012); Global Insight, (2013) 0 200 400 600 800 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Italy Spain France 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2002 2007 2013 2016 Italy Spain France 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 2010 2011 2012 Italy Spain France N/A 0 50 100 150 200 250 Accident & Health Aviation Casualty Casualty Treaty Energy Marine Overseas Motor Property (D&F) Property Treaty UK Motor
  4. 4. © Lloyd’s Business Environment > Basic Indicators Business Environment > KEY ISSUES To Watch Imperative for electoral reform underlined by political volatility: Electoral reform is a priority to reduce the risk of another political impasse after the next election. The probability of meaningful change is low since the next government will have to circumnavigate vested political interests, party tactics, and vetoes. If the government cannot build consensus on an alternative to the current electoral law, it is likely to suggest reverting to the preceding system, the so-called "Mattarellum". It will also probably agree on reducing the size of the parliament and cutting party funding. Italy likely to relax austerity and lower taxes, labour market reform unlikely: Prime Minister Enrico Letta included some economic experts and bipartisan figures in a broad-based political cabinet in order to engineer a move away from austerity while retaining the support of European partners and the European Commission. There will be a degree of policy continuity with the previous Mario Monti administration, and fiscal responsibility will be respected, but the "grand coalition" arrangement will be characterised by bouts of severe political instability due to demands from the right to lower taxes, and from the left to support employment. Its effectiveness in tackling the reform agenda is doubtful; it is unlikely to be able to adopt labour market reform since the left will block any further liberalisation. Italy likely to remain in recession in 2013: The economy remained in recession after contracting for a sixth successive quarter during the final quarter of 2012, according to a final estimate from the Statistics Bureau. In addition, the purchasing managers' reports for both manufacturing and service-sector activity in early 2013, alongside still poor business and consumer surveys signal that the economy will remain under pressure throughout 2013, and they are pointing to further marked declines in output in the first half of 2013. The economy continues to flounder in the face of entrenched consumer and business gloom, not surprising given the tougher tax regime, tighter credit conditions, and rising unemployment, and now with the added stress of political turmoil following the inconclusive general election at the end of February 2013. According to IHS Global Insight's latest forecast, real GDP is expected to contract by 1.9% in 2013 and 0.5% in 2014, after a 2.4% fall in 2012, according to the April forecast. Domestic demand conditions set to be subdued in months ahead: The household economy remains dormant, with nervous consumers continuing to refrain from non-essential spending, highlighted by the fact that consumer confidence bounced around record lows during 2012 and earl 2013. Therefore, the near-term outlook for household spending is poor at best, with consumers struggling to cope with uneven real income developments, tax-heavy fiscal austerity, and a moderate but still unpopular structural reform drive. Government publishes less challenging near-term fiscal projections: Italy raised its 2013 public-sector budget deficit target to 2.9% of GDP from the previous goal of 1.8% of GDP. The Economy Minister has raised the 2014 budget deficit target from 1.5% of GDP to 1.7%. According to official calculations, the higher budget deficit targets for 2013/14 will imply that the government borrows an additional EUR40 billion over the next two years. Not surprisingly, the minister has defended the softer fiscal targets by arguing that the less aggressive fiscal consolidation stance is in response to the still deteriorating economic outlook alongside a plan to pay money currently owed by the government to private businesses for goods and services. However, the government will need parliamentary approval for the new fiscal plan as its represents higher public-sector budget deficits than previously agreed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (nominal GDP levels in billion US$; Real GDP change) For daily updates visit: > Business Environment information (provided by IHS Global Insight, (May 2013) 1 KEY FACTS 2 KEY STATISTICS 3 BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 4 INSURANCE ENVIRONMENT 5 LLOYD’S BUSINESS Top-10 Sectors (By Value Added) (2012 level in billion US$ & 2013 Change in %) -5.5% 1.7% 0.5% -2.4% -2.0% -0.6% 0.5% 1.4% 1.2% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TOP SECTORS 2012 Value Added 2013 Percentage Change 1. Real Estate 236.8 -1.1 2. Public Admin. and Defence 123.1 -1.9 3. Health and Social Services 115.3 -2.2 4. Business Services 115.1 -0.9 5. Retail Trade - Total 108.8 -2.5 6. Construction 101.9 0.4 7. Wholesale Trade 94.7 -0.9 8. Education 85.5 -0.6 9. Banking and Related Financial 74.1 -1.1 10. Hotels and Restaurants 72.1 -2.1 Top-10 Total 1127.4
  5. 5. © Lloyd’s Major Direct Insurers: 2010 Top-10 Market Players by GWP (Gross Written Premiums in million US$) Insurance Environment > Summary 2011 Direct Gross premiums Source: Regulator: > Source: Regulator: > The size of the non-life Insurance market in 2011 was US$ 50.7bn: Despite being one of the largest insurance markets in Europe, the Italian market is underdeveloped with the dominance of motor business, few large financial groups and agents. However, insurance premiums are growing faster than GDP, especially in smaller business classes. Limits remain low, risk retention is a continuing feature and many lines of business suffer from low penetration. International foreign insurers: Foreign company involvement in the market is strong and foreign ownership accounts for around a third of all non-life companies. Modest Broker market: Brokers play a relatively modest role in the Italian non-life sector as the major distribution channel can be found in the agent network. Foreign-owned reinsurance market: Following numerous acquisitions in recent years, the local reinsurance market is effectively foreign-owned, with no pure Italian reinsurers. In 2010, the Reinsurance market grew by 11%. Outlook: Regulatory and legislative developments are expected to pose challenges to the operations and structures of the life and non-life market in Italy. Insurers are likely to raise motor insurance rates, which have been insufficient in returning and underwriting profit. 1 KEY FACTS 2 KEY STATISTICS 3 BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 4 INSURANCE ENVIRONMENT Insurance Environment > Key Market Players, Business Classes & Quick Links 5 LLOYD’S BUSINESS Quick Links / useful sources Insurance Market Profiles > The Italian Insurance association > The Insurance Supervisory Institute > Lloyd’s Agency Network > Lloyd’s Claims Team > Motor Accident & Health Property Liability MAT Miscellaneous 57% 15% 10% 15% 2% 2011 GWP US$ 50.7bn 9718 6042 5560 2836 2268 2235 1859 1129 953 10769GENERALI FONDIARIA-SAI ASSICURATIVO UNIPOL ALLIANZ SE REALE MUTUA CATTOLICA ASSICURAZIONI AXA AMA ASSICURAZIONI VITTORIA ASSICURAZIONI SARA
  6. 6. © Lloyd’s 1 KEY FACTS 2 KEY STATISTICS 3 BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 4 INSURANCE ENVIRONMENT 5 LLOYD’S BUSINESS Lloyd’s Business > Gross Signed Premiums* Lloyd’s Business > Office Details A Type 3 office is defined as a Lloyd's office headed by a Country Manager who in addition to meeting regulatory requirements in that territory also proactively supports the business development objectives of the managing agents in that territory. Type 3 Office Lloyd’s Country Manager Mr Enrico Bertagna Corso Garibaldi, 86 20121 Milan Italy TELEPHONE: +39 (0) 2 637 888 1 EMAIL: 2008 – 2012 Premiums by type (in million US$) 2012 GROSS SIGNED PREMIUMS* Total US$ 590.3m Reinsurance US$ 229.0m Direct US$ 361.3m 2012 Premiums by Class (in million US$) SOURCE: Market Intelligence based on *Gross Signed premiums; Xchanging (2013); unaudited figures based on country of origin and processing by calendar year; see Appendix for details * COUNTRY OF ORIGIN PREMIUMS  Policyholders are based or headquartered in this territory;  Premiums may be written outside this territory; X Not necessarily where risks are located X May differ to what is reported to local regulator (dependent on local requirements). 0 200 400 600 800 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Direct Reinsurance 0 50 100 150 200 250 Accident & Health Aviation Casualty Casualty Treaty Energy Marine Overseas Motor Property (D&F) Property Treaty UK Motor
  8. 8. © Lloyd’s Appendix Disclaimer This document is intended for general information purposes only. Whilst all care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the information, Lloyd's does not accept any responsibility for any errors or omissions. Lloyd's does not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of, but not limited to, any statement, fact, figure, expression of opinion or belief contained in this document. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) indicates the purchasing power of a country and can therefore reflect potential demand. PPP takes into account as if there was a standard international currency used by all countries and determining the cost for that measure. In other words, PPP is the amount of a certain basket of basic goods which can be bought in the given country with the standard international currency. For international comparison, the PPP is expressed in US$. SOURCE: IMF and World Bank statistical pages, ; or Global Insight in the Business Environment section Insurance ENVIRONMENT While all insurance market figures are based on Market Intelligence calculations, all insurance market statistics are based on publicly available sources from either regulatory bodies, associations or third party information providers. SOURCE: See insurance environment section for details Compare Countries & COUNTRY PROFILES Managing Agents can download detailed statistics contained in this document at: > Compare Countries (Data) Managing Agents, Brokers & Coverholders have access to Country Profiles for key territories at: All products are summarised on the website of the Market Intelligence team at: LLOYD’S BUSINESS The detailed country-level Lloyd’s data used in this document is based on calendar year signed gross premiums sourced from Xchanging. This differs from the Lloyd’s data published in the Annual Report. The accounting-level Lloyd’s data published in the Annual Report is based on calendar year written gross premiums sourced directly from Syndicates. Differences are therefore explained by (1) the timing differences between written and signed gross premiums and (2) inconsistent use of rates of exchange between Syndicates and Xchanging. Please note the information contained in this document is based upon data collected from Xchanging and may be incomplete for some classes of business; for instance a substantial figure, which is missing from the REG 258 data set is comprised of UK Motor, which is not processed by Xchanging. Lloyd’s figures are based on gross signed premiums based on figures processed by Xchanging by processing year and country of origin. Gross Premiums: Original and additional inward premiums, plus any amount in respect of administration fees or policy expenses remitted with a premium but before the deduction of outward reinsurance premiums. Country of Origin: Denotes the country from where demand for the insurance / reinsurance emanates; i.e. the coverholder or policyholder, irrespective of the country to which the risk is classified for regulatory reporting purposes. Processing Year: Relates to the calendar year in which the premium, additional or return premium is processed by Xchanging, irrespective of the actual underwriting year of account of the risks (which is determined by the inception date of each risk). Example: A policy holder in the UK insuring a holiday home in France would be classified as a UK risk by “Country Of Origin”, but “French” for regulatory reporting purposes. Similarly a risk incepting on 1st December 2007 would be classified at 2007 “Underwriting Year of Account” but may not be processed by Xchanging until 2008 and so be allocated to the 2008 “processing year”. SOURCE: Xchanging, (March 2013), Exchange Rates Market Intelligence uses US$ as a basis for all consistent comparison across the world. Underlying figures from Xchanging have been used from Compare Countries, which is in US$. Annual average exchange rates have been used in any conversions necessary as per