This document discusses designing stress tests to improve the resilience of critical infrastructure systems. It proposes taking an alternative approach that starts by identifying the most essential services, infrastructures, and information, and determining required service levels and costs. The document advocates developing dynamic stress test scenarios focusing on the most critical and vulnerable system components, and integrating expert assessments with simulation models to evaluate severity of consequences under different scenarios. The goal is to continuously update stress tests to account for changes over time.

1. Designing dynamic stress tests for
improved critical infrastructure resilience
Tina Comes, Valentin Bertsch, Simon French
Centre for Integrated Emergency Management
University of Agder
Institute for Industrial Production
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
University of Warwick

2. RESILIENT
INFRASTRUCTURE
SYSTEMS
What is critical for our societies?
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

3. An Era of Change…
Power Blackouts
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

4. Traffic Jam in New Delhi after the power blackout in 2012
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

5. Looking ahead
• How to account for cultural differences?
• How to account for indirect impacts – disruptions in traffic, health
care, supplies of food and water, ...?
• How to assess the longer term impact?
• Are the blackouts really “unexpected”?
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

6. IS OPTIMALITY GOOD
ENOUGH?
Risk and vulnerability assessments
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

7. Understanding Risk?
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

8. The standard
approach:
• What might happen?
• How likely is it?
• What are the
consequences?
Be prepared!
CHRONIC
FAILURES
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
Measuring risk

9. • Emerging risk?
• Unforeseen events?
• Unprecedented
consequences
BEING PREPARED
FOR ANYTHING?
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
Measuring risk?

10. An alternative approach
• What is essential?
• Services
• Infrastructures
• Information
• Which service levels do we
need to gurarntee?
• At what cost?
START FROM THE MOST
CRITICAL ELEMENTS
THAT NEED TO BE PROTECTED
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

11. What are the most critical elements?
An alternative risk management concept
Risk
Hazard
Exposure
Vulnerability
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

12. VULNERABILITY AGAINST
POWER BLACKOUTS
The Use Case: Hurricane Sandy
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

13. Hurricane Sandy
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

14. Impact of Sandy: Vulnerability against power blackouts
Full report available on
http://www.cedim.de/Hurrikan_Sandy.php
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

15. OUTLOOK
A way ahead
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

16. Which level of
protection is required
and desired?
 Identification of
thresholds with respect
to
plausibility, vulnerability
and consequences
Adaptable and dynamic stress test methodology
What are the most
critical & vulnerable
components of the
system?
 identification of
vulnerability drivers
and most critical
components
How severe are
the
consequences?
How to combine
simulation models
and expert
assessments?
 Stress test
scenarios and MCDA
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

17. Designing stress tests
- starting from essential functions
- focusing on the systems and
their
relations
Creating stress test scenarios
attacking the most critical
subsystems
Integrating human experts and
decision makers and
simulations and models
An era of change: continuous
update and dynamic design
Conclusion
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

18. 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

19. Critical Infrastructures: Essential for Societies
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience