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Designing dynamic stress tests for improved critical infrastructure resilience

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Designing dynamic stress tests for
improved critical infrastructure resilience
Tina Comes, Valentin Bertsch, Simon French
...

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RESILIENT
INFRASTRUCTURE
SYSTEMS
What is critical for our societies?
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for cr...

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An Era of Change…
Power Blackouts
24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

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Designing dynamic stress tests for improved critical infrastructure resilience

Presentation of Tina Comes, Valentin Bertsch and Simon French at ISCRAM2013: Designing dynamic stress tests for improved critical infrastructure resilience

How to prepare our infrastructure systems against hazards that are increasingly hard to predict? How to create systems which can cope with anything that might happen? To answer these questions, we propose an approach that starts from analysing which are the most vulnerable and critical elements of critical infrastructure system. Other than standard approaches to risk management we do not start with modelling an event, but try to find out the failure of which system elements would be most harmful to investigate (a) what could cause such a failure and (b) how the consequences of such a failure could be limited.

Presentation of Tina Comes, Valentin Bertsch and Simon French at ISCRAM2013: Designing dynamic stress tests for improved critical infrastructure resilience

How to prepare our infrastructure systems against hazards that are increasingly hard to predict? How to create systems which can cope with anything that might happen? To answer these questions, we propose an approach that starts from analysing which are the most vulnerable and critical elements of critical infrastructure system. Other than standard approaches to risk management we do not start with modelling an event, but try to find out the failure of which system elements would be most harmful to investigate (a) what could cause such a failure and (b) how the consequences of such a failure could be limited.

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Designing dynamic stress tests for improved critical infrastructure resilience

  1. 1. Designing dynamic stress tests for improved critical infrastructure resilience Tina Comes, Valentin Bertsch, Simon French Centre for Integrated Emergency Management University of Agder Institute for Industrial Production Karlsruhe Institute of Technology University of Warwick
  2. 2. RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS What is critical for our societies? 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  3. 3. An Era of Change… Power Blackouts 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  4. 4. Traffic Jam in New Delhi after the power blackout in 2012 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  5. 5. Looking ahead • How to account for cultural differences? • How to account for indirect impacts – disruptions in traffic, health care, supplies of food and water, ...? • How to assess the longer term impact? • Are the blackouts really “unexpected”? 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  6. 6. IS OPTIMALITY GOOD ENOUGH? Risk and vulnerability assessments 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  7. 7. Understanding Risk? 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  8. 8. The standard approach: • What might happen? • How likely is it? • What are the consequences? Be prepared! CHRONIC FAILURES 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience Measuring risk
  9. 9. • Emerging risk? • Unforeseen events? • Unprecedented consequences BEING PREPARED FOR ANYTHING? 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience Measuring risk?
  10. 10. An alternative approach • What is essential? • Services • Infrastructures • Information • Which service levels do we need to gurarntee? • At what cost? START FROM THE MOST CRITICAL ELEMENTS THAT NEED TO BE PROTECTED 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  11. 11. What are the most critical elements? An alternative risk management concept Risk Hazard Exposure Vulnerability 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  12. 12. VULNERABILITY AGAINST POWER BLACKOUTS The Use Case: Hurricane Sandy 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  13. 13. Hurricane Sandy 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  14. 14. Impact of Sandy: Vulnerability against power blackouts Full report available on http://www.cedim.de/Hurrikan_Sandy.php 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  15. 15. OUTLOOK A way ahead 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  16. 16. Which level of protection is required and desired?  Identification of thresholds with respect to plausibility, vulnerability and consequences Adaptable and dynamic stress test methodology What are the most critical & vulnerable components of the system?  identification of vulnerability drivers and most critical components How severe are the consequences? How to combine simulation models and expert assessments?  Stress test scenarios and MCDA 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  17. 17. Designing stress tests - starting from essential functions - focusing on the systems and their relations Creating stress test scenarios attacking the most critical subsystems Integrating human experts and decision makers and simulations and models An era of change: continuous update and dynamic design Conclusion 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  18. 18. 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  19. 19. Critical Infrastructures: Essential for Societies 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

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