Designing dynamic stress tests for improved critical infrastructure resilience

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Presentation of Tina Comes, Valentin Bertsch and Simon French at ISCRAM2013: Designing dynamic stress tests for improved critical infrastructure resilience

How to prepare our infrastructure systems against hazards that are increasingly hard to predict? How to create systems which can cope with anything that might happen? To answer these questions, we propose an approach that starts from analysing which are the most vulnerable and critical elements of critical infrastructure system. Other than standard approaches to risk management we do not start with modelling an event, but try to find out the failure of which system elements would be most harmful to investigate (a) what could cause such a failure and (b) how the consequences of such a failure could be limited.

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Designing dynamic stress tests for improved critical infrastructure resilience

  1. 1. Designing dynamic stress tests forimproved critical infrastructure resilienceTina Comes, Valentin Bertsch, Simon FrenchCentre for Integrated Emergency ManagementUniversity of AgderInstitute for Industrial ProductionKarlsruhe Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Warwick
  2. 2. RESILIENTINFRASTRUCTURESYSTEMSWhat is critical for our societies?24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  3. 3. An Era of Change…Power Blackouts24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  4. 4. Traffic Jam in New Delhi after the power blackout in 201224/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  5. 5. Looking ahead• How to account for cultural differences?• How to account for indirect impacts – disruptions in traffic, healthcare, supplies of food and water, ...?• How to assess the longer term impact?• Are the blackouts really “unexpected”?24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  6. 6. IS OPTIMALITY GOODENOUGH?Risk and vulnerability assessments24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  7. 7. Understanding Risk?24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  8. 8. The standardapproach:• What might happen?• How likely is it?• What are theconsequences?Be prepared!CHRONICFAILURES24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilienceMeasuring risk
  9. 9. • Emerging risk?• Unforeseen events?• UnprecedentedconsequencesBEING PREPAREDFOR ANYTHING?24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilienceMeasuring risk?
  10. 10. An alternative approach• What is essential?• Services• Infrastructures• Information• Which service levels do weneed to gurarntee?• At what cost?START FROM THE MOSTCRITICAL ELEMENTSTHAT NEED TO BE PROTECTED24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  11. 11. What are the most critical elements?An alternative risk management conceptRiskHazardExposureVulnerability24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  12. 12. VULNERABILITY AGAINSTPOWER BLACKOUTSThe Use Case: Hurricane Sandy24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  13. 13. Hurricane Sandy24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  14. 14. Impact of Sandy: Vulnerability against power blackoutsFull report available onhttp://www.cedim.de/Hurrikan_Sandy.php24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  15. 15. OUTLOOKA way ahead24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  16. 16. Which level ofprotection is requiredand desired? Identification ofthresholds with respecttoplausibility, vulnerabilityand consequencesAdaptable and dynamic stress test methodologyWhat are the mostcritical & vulnerablecomponents of thesystem? identification ofvulnerability driversand most criticalcomponentsHow severe aretheconsequences?How to combinesimulation modelsand expertassessments? Stress testscenarios and MCDA24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  17. 17. Designing stress tests- starting from essential functions- focusing on the systems andtheirrelationsCreating stress test scenariosattacking the most criticalsubsystemsIntegrating human experts anddecision makers andsimulations and modelsAn era of change: continuousupdate and dynamic designConclusion24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  18. 18. 24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience
  19. 19. Critical Infrastructures: Essential for Societies24/05/2013Comes, Bertsch, French: Stress tests for critical infrastructure resilience

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