A presentation on the financial position of Wheat around the world as of February 2014

1. WORLD WHEAT
Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on
their website: http://www.uswheat.org/

2. The World Wheat Market
Year
11/12 12/13 13/14
Production
697
656
712
Consumption
697
679
704
Surplus (shortfall)
0
-23
8
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3. World Production and Use
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4. World Ending Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and EU-27.
Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
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5. World wheat supply & demand
Date
Beginning stock
Production
Supply total
12/13
13/14
199
199
176
697
656
712
896
Supply
11/12
855
888
Trade
Exports/imports
158
137
159
Demand
Food & seed
Feed & residual
Use tool
550
543
569
147
136
135
697
679
704
199
176
184
Ending
stocks
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6. Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio
*Ending stocks
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7. Global Ending Stocks and Price
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8. Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*
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9. International Wheat Factors
Record 2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 8.5% from last season, +56 million
tons.
Approximately 19.2% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and resultantly the
Chicago corn / wheat spread has narrowed and is currently US$1.52 / buschel.
Canadian production up by 38% from 2012/13 to a record 37.5 MMT but US production
down 6% to 58 MMT
Black Sea production has rebounded to 105 MMT from 77.5 MMT in 2012/13 with
exports expected to be 33% higher.
Argentine exports to fall 15% to 3 MMT vs. 5-year average of 7.57 MMT
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10. Canada Situation
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11. Black Sea Exports
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12. U.S. Situation
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13. Supply & demand of wheat
in South Africa (‘000 tons)
Date
13/14*
Opening stock
489
Production
1795
Imports
1650*
Consumption
3197
Exports
180
Closing stock
557
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14. Local Wheat Drivers
Limited small crop – 1,795 million tons (need to import 45% of requirement) = import
parity driven
With record world crop produced, fairly good export competition keeping a lid on prices
(quality milling wheat less abundant).
Single largest driver of local prices is the weak currency (Rand).
Another important driver is the pace of actual imports i.e. by 14 Feb 2014 – 760 310
tons imported vs. imports needed to date to balance supply = 618 750 tons.
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