International Wheat Factors
Record 2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 8.5% from last season, +56 million
Approximately 19.2% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and resultantly the
Chicago corn / wheat spread has narrowed and is currently US$1.52 / buschel.
Canadian production up by 38% from 2012/13 to a record 37.5 MMT but US production
down 6% to 58 MMT
Black Sea production has rebounded to 105 MMT from 77.5 MMT in 2012/13 with
exports expected to be 33% higher.
Argentine exports to fall 15% to 3 MMT vs. 5-year average of 7.57 MMT
Supply & demand of wheat
in South Africa (‘000 tons)
Local Wheat Drivers
Limited small crop – 1,795 million tons (need to import 45% of requirement) = import
With record world crop produced, fairly good export competition keeping a lid on prices
(quality milling wheat less abundant).
Single largest driver of local prices is the weak currency (Rand).
Another important driver is the pace of actual imports i.e. by 14 Feb 2014 – 760 310
tons imported vs. imports needed to date to balance supply = 618 750 tons.