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Supreme Flour World Wheat Presentation (December 2013)

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A presentation on the financial position of Wheat around the world (as of December 2013)

Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org

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Supreme Flour World Wheat Presentation (December 2013)

  1. 1. WORLD WHEAT Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org/
  2. 2. The World Wheat Market Year 11/12 12/13 13/14 Production 698 655 706 Consumption 697 679 703 Surplus (shortfall) 1 -24 3 0 2
  3. 3. World Production and Use 0 3
  4. 4. Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan 0 4
  5. 5. World wheat supply & demand Date Beginning stock Production Supply total 12/13 13/14 199 199 176 698 655 706 896 Supply 11/12 855 882 Trade Exports/imports 158 138 154 Demand Food & seed Feed & residual Use tool 550 543 564 147 136 139 697 679 703 199 176 178 Ending stocks 0 5
  6. 6. Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio *Ending stocks 0 6
  7. 7. Global Ending Stocks and Price 0 7
  8. 8. Black Sea Exports 0 8
  9. 9. International Wheat Factors Record 2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 7.8% from last season, +51 million tons. Approximately 20% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and with the Chicago corn / wheat spread at US$2.30 / buschel - battle. In spite of problems in South America (frost in Brazil and smaller plantings in Argentina) – not bullish internationally (Canada and Australia – larger crops). New season Northern Hemisphere – US / Black Sea / EU plantings look good – start harvest in June 2014 0 9
  10. 10. U.S. Situation 0 10
  11. 11. Argentina Situation 0 11
  12. 12. Canada Situation 0 12
  13. 13. Supply & demand of wheat in South Africa (‘000 tons) Date 13/14* Opening stock 489 Production 1752 Imports 1600* Consumption 3040 Exports 280 Closing stock 521 0 13
  14. 14. Local Wheat Drivers With small local crop, we will trade inland import parity Currently local wheat well priced versus imports (R / US$), +- R100 / ton at R10.20 / US$ Western Cape quality concern – at least 100 000 tons lost to feed (S&D) Still some unsold Black Sea wheat stored in silos / more coming in Dec / Jan 0 14
  15. 15. Local Prices 2900 2850 2800 2750 2700 2650 0 15

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