Prof Simon Saunders of Real Wireless presents the business case for Rural & remote small cell deployments at MWC15

1. A
$1
trillion
opportunity:
Business
drivers
for
connec6ng
the
unconnected
via
small
cells
3rd
March
2015
18/03/2015
1©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Rural
villages
Military
Public
safety
Disaster
Recovery
/
humanitarian
Remote
industrial
Special
events
Transporta6on

2. About
Real
Wireless
• Leading
wireless
advisory
firm,
bridging
the
gap
between
wireless
experts
and
wireless
users
• Team
of
independent
experts
with
deep
technology
and
broad
business
experience
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
18/03/2015
Some
Clients
Some
Places
Some
Technologies
2

3. Small
Cell
Business
Cases
• Commissioned
by
Small
Cell
Forum
but
conducted
independently
by
Real
Wireless
• A
highly
referenceable,
credible
starLng
point
for
product
and
scenario-­‐specific
analysis
• These
are
public:
but
many
specific
exercises
conducted
for
real
world
cases
18/03/2015
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Urban
Enterprise
Rural
&
Remote
3

4. Study
seHng
–
Who
are
rural
and
remote
users?
18/03/2015
4
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Rural
Community
Coverage
for
underserved
community
beyond
range
of
normal
service
Remote
Industrial
Coverage
for
community
of
workers
at
a
site
hard
to
reach
from
exisLng
infrastructure
Public
Safety
Coverage
for
emergency
services
&
first
responders.
Disaster
Recovery
/
Humanitarian
Rapid
reinstatement
of
coverage
aRer
extensive
damage
to
mobile
infrastructure,
and
support
for
ongoing
humanitarian
efforts.
Special
Event
Services
for
temporary
planned
gathering
Military
Service
for
military
personnel
Transporta6on
Services
for
passengers
and
operaLonal
needs
on
all
classes
of
shipping,
aircraR
and
trains

5. Tradi6onally
these
users
are
poorly
served
18/03/2015
5
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
• Alphonzo
Samuels,
CTO
of
Telekom
South
Africa,
recently
highlighted
that
urban
populaLons
take
up
just
2%
of
landmass
but
provide
for
operators
[1]:
• 50%
of
revenue
• 80%
of
profit
• Natural
tendency
to
target
urban
so
more
cost
effecLve
rural
soluLons
needed.
• Even
markets
with
high
cellular
penetraLon
have
a
gap
between
urban
and
rural
user
mobile
experience
(as
per
Ofcom
figure
on
right).
• GSMA
esLmate
average
unique
subscriber
level
79%
in
developed
countries
but
only
41%
in
developing
countries
[3].
• Implies
main
subscriber
growth
will
come
from
rural
and
developing
areas.
• But
key
barriers
for
operators
are:
• Deployment
costs
• Closed,
bespoke
equipment
ecosystems
• Can
small
cells
overcome
these
barriers?
The
difference
in
the
call
comple6on
rates
across
UK
operators
between
rural
and
urban
users
from
Ofcom
[2]
Mobile
adop6on
versus
rural
popula6ons
from
GSMA
[3]

6. Key
Findings
• Rural
and
remote
users
increasingly
need
mobile
• MoLvaLons
for
mobile
differ
but
there
are
common
mobile
soluLon
requirements
• Small
cells
fit
these
common
requirements
excepLonally
well
technically
• Operators
can
tap
into
capLve,
previously
untapped
markets
via:
• Lower,
more
granular
deployment
costs
• Enabling
more
flexible
ecosystems
with
varying
levels
of
operator
involvement
• Small
cells
challenge
the
assumpLon
that
there
is
necessary
divide
between
urban
users
and
rural
and
remote
users
• The
economic
and
social
benefits
from
serving
this
market
segment
are
compelling
too
A
trillion
dollar
opportunity!
18/03/2015
6
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Users
Market
drivers
Requirements
Ecosystems
Users
Market
drivers
Requirements
Ecosystems
…
Sector
customisaLons
Sector
customisaLons
Core
small
cell
capabiliLes
Small
cell
ecosystem
Mobile
industry
Small
cells
are
the
“glue”
across
apparently
disparate
rural
and
remote
applica6ons
Rural
villages
Transport
Remote
industrial
Special
events
Public
safety
Disaster
recovery
/
humanitarian
Military

7. R&R
markets
need
mobile
and
are
big
markets
• In
developing
naLons
• Mobile
only
means
for
medical
assistance,
employment
and
finances
in
some
areas.
• Mobile
access
higher
than
basic
sanitaLon
in
some
sub-­‐Saharan
countries
[3].
• 10%
improvement
in
mobile
gives
1.4%
increase
in
GDP
[3].
• In
developed
naLons
• Increased
recogniLon
of
the
importance
of
mobile
by
regulators
• Teleworking
rising
–
80%
increase
in
US
from
2005
to
2012
[5]
• Operators
differenLaLng
on
user
experience
1.6
billion
subscribers
could
be
added
via
small
cells
worldwide
by
2017
-­‐
rural
populaLons
are
key
18/03/2015
7
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Rural
communi6es
o Huge
capLve
audience:
2.98
billion
air
passengers
in
2012
(and
growing)
with
54.9
million
flight
hours
[6]
o Passengers
expect
mobile
–
poor
Internet
second
biggest
stress
factor
for
business
passengers
[7]
o Morale
networks
for
staff
key
for
staff
retenLon
o OperaLonal
benefits
and
addiLonal
revenue
for
transport
companies
o Growing
M2M
tracking
freight
o Access
to
on-­‐shore
markets
in
mariLme
case
Transport

8. R&R
markets
need
mobile
and
are
big
markets
• Worldwide
military
expenditure
of
$1.75
trillion
in
2013
[8].
• Move
from
bespoke
to
cellular
due
to:
• Reduced
costs
of
COTS
• Increased
funcLonality
• Shorter
procurement
cycles
• More
hi-­‐tech
banlespace
needs
bener
wireless
support
• SituaLonal
awareness
• LogisLcs
and
operaLonal
communicaLons
• Remote
control
of
vehicles
and
remote
devices
18/03/2015
8
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Military
• In
US
in
2013
alone
$9.7
billion
spent
on
public
assistance
[9].
• 155,000
LTE
public
safety
basestaLons
forecast
globally
by
2020
with
4
million
subs
[10].
• Big
transiLon
to
cellular
driven
by:
• Drive
for
bener
interoperability
• Reduced
costs
and
increased
funcLonality
of
COTS
• Emergency
responses
becoming
more
hi-­‐tech
as
in
military
but
also
open
GSM
cells
to
locate
survivors
and
public
relying
on
cellular
in
incidents
more
Public
safety

9. R&R
markets
need
mobile
and
are
big
areas
• Between
2000
and
2009
2.2
billion
people
impacted
by
4,484
natural
disasters
[11]
• Increasing
problem
due
to
global
warming
and
unplanned
urbanisaLon
[12].
• Growing
recogniLon
that
wireless
is
key
in
operaLons
with
groups
like
Vodafone
FoundaLon
and
Télécoms
Sans
FronLères.
• SituaLonal
awareness
via
video
and
images
and
open
cell
features
to
locate
survivors
in
addiLon
to
voice
aiding
operaLons.
• Increased
reliance
on
mobile
by
survivors
• Increased
internaLonal
awareness
of
management
of
relief
efforts.
18/03/2015
9
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Real
Wireless
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2015
Disaster
recovery
• London
2012
was
esLmated
to
anract
nine
million
spectators
and
300,000
athletes,
officials,
media
and
workforce
[13].
• Increasing
operaLonal
communicaLons
requirements:
• CCTV
• Wireless
payment
systems
• Public
safety
networks
• Spectators
expecLng
connecLvity
to:
• Give
live
feedback
on
events
and
share
experiences
• Review
event
related
staLsLcs
and
info.
Special
events

10. R&R
markets
need
mobile
and
are
big
markets
• Move
from
PMR
to
cellular
in
this
area.
• Forecast
that
by
2015
$8
billion
will
be
spent
on
oil
and
gas
mobile
applicaLons
[14].
• Mobile
is
the
2nd
highest
priority
for
CIOs
in
this
area
aRer
cyber
security
[14].
• Drivers
include:
• Improving
operaLonal
efficiencies
via
remote
working
and
situaLonal
assessment
• Improving
staff
retenLon
• Being
high
value,
hi-­‐tech
environments
18/03/2015
10
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Remote
industrial
• Key
common
drivers
• Higher
expectaLons
from
consumers
and
workers
of
connecLvity
everywhere
• Working
environments
becoming
more
hi-­‐tech
• Increasing
interest
in
cellular
from
specialist
usersg
more
hi-­‐tech
as
in
military
but
also
open
GSM
cells
to
locate
survivors
and
public
relying
on
cellular
in
incidents
more

11. Why
don’t
operators
serve
these
needs
beer?
• Operators
perceive
that:
• Deployment
challenges
make
them
complex
to
address
and
not
cost
effecLve
with
macrocells
• The
ecosystems
are
unfamiliar
to
operators
with
a
closed
set
of
players
who
know
the
market
needs
well
• But
our
analysis
and
stakeholder
feedback
suggest
these
applicaLon
areas
could
be
very
interesLng
to
operators:
• CapLve
markets
with
good
brand
and
differenLaLon
opportuniLes.
• Some
high
value
lucraLve
applicaLon
areas
with
extra
subscriber
recruitment
opportuniLes
in
specialist
environments.
• Opportunity
to
generate
significant
social
and
economic
value
• Opportunity
to
leverage
exisLng
investments
in
small
cells
• Knock
on
operaLonal
benefits
of
network
resilience
and
responding
to
network
outages
18/03/2015
11
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015

12. Small
cells
fit
these
common
requirements
excep6onally
well
technically
• Small
cells
have
special
characterisLcs
of:
• Being
low
cost,
low
power
and
small
form
factor
soluLons
• Providing
support
for
a
range
of
backhaul
and
power
opLons
• Providing
targeted
local
coverage
• Providing
dedicated
capacity
• Delivering
cellular
services
and
COTS
standards
based
equipment
• Providing
easy
installaLon
and
retrofit
• SupporLng
rapid
deployment
and
self-­‐
organising
features
18/03/2015
12
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Small
cells
using
a
range
of
backhaul
solu6ons
–
Vodafone
open
SureSignal
uses
premise’s
broadband
(leb),
Altobridge/iDirect
using
Satcom
backhaul
and
Airspan
4G
outdoor
picocell
with
integrated
point
to
mul6
point
backhaul
(right)
Femtocells
illustra6ng
the
small
form
factor
of
small
cell
products

13. Even
though
drivers
for
mobile
differ
there
are
common
solu6on
requirements
18/03/2015
13
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Key
Requirement
Rural
town
/
villages
Transport
Military
Public
safety
Humanitarian
/
disaster
recovery
Special
events
Remote
industrial
Low
cost
ü
ü
ü
Support
for
a
range
of
backhaul
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
Targeted
local
coverage
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
Low
power
ü
ü
ü
ü
Small
form
factor
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
Delivers
cellular
services
ü
ü
ü
COTS
standards
based
equipment
ü
ü
ü
Easy
installa6on
and
retrofit
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
Rapid
deployment
ü
ü
ü
ü
Self-­‐organising
ü
ü
ü
ü
Dedicated
capacity
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
Rugged
form
factor
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
Many
common
requirements
suit
small
cells
well

14.
• Small
form
factor
• Low
power
• Dedicated
capacity
• Dedicated
coverage
in
small
areas
• Easy
install
and
self
organising
features
• Wide
range
of
backhaul
But
various
levels
of
customisa6on
are
s6ll
needed
18/03/2015
14
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Rural
Remote
Temporary
Dedicated
Moving
Feature
Op6ons
Backhaul
Satellite,
residenLal
broadband,
fibre,
microwave,
NLOS
Power
supply
Solar
panels,
banery,
vehicle
power
supply,
generator,
mains
Cell
size
Village,
plane,
ship,
disaster
area,
special
event
venue
Regulatory
Emission
levels,
spectrum,
antenna
height
Add
standard
R&R
product
features
for
the
categories
of
characterisLcs
that
target
market
exhibits
Start
with
exisLng
outdoor
small
cell
products
Core
small
cell
offering
Customise
for
final
market
segment
• Branding
• Ruggedize
• Packaging
• Integrate
with
other
systems
• Sector
safety
standards
and
regulaLons
• Integrate
with
bespoke
services
and
applicaLons
• EncrypLon
and
security
Special
events
Rural
villages
Transport
–
Mari6me,
avia6on
and
trains
Military
First
responder
Disaster
recovery
Humanitarian
Remote
industrial
The
path
to
success

15. Small
cells
have
proven
themselves
already
in
these
areas
18/03/2015
15
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
• Some
example
case
studies
given
here
but
many
more
in
the
report

16. Example
social
and
economic
benefits
from
small
cells
in
R&R
markets
• Rural
developing
naLons
[3]:
• Mobile
advisory
services
increased
farmers’
incomes
by
50%
• Mobile
has
saved
one
million
lives
in
sub-­‐Saharan
Africa
• Enables
novel
services
like
mobile
money
and
Azuri
pay
as
you
go
solar
power
• Disaster
relief,
humanitarian
and
public
safety
• Mobile
in-­‐field
communicaLons
saves
lives
• Locals
clearly
benefit
in
immediate
and
on-­‐going
recovery
• Importance
demonstrated
by
one
Vodafone
FoundaLon
Instant
Network
carrying
264,104
calls
over
47
days
when
deployed
to
support
Red
Cross
in
Kenya
[16].
• Remote
industrial
• PotenLal
economic
impact
of
mobile
and
internet
via
oil,
metal
and
mineral
extracLon
industries
expected
to
exceed
$100
billion
annually
by
2025
[17].
18/03/2015
16
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015

17. Lower,
more
granular
deployment
costs
18/03/2015
17
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Illustra6ons
of
the
small
form
factor
of
some
small
cells
that
ease
deployment
barriers
–
Alcatel
Lucent
small
cell
in
a
Virgin
Media
trial
in
Newcastle,
UK
(top
right)
–
Altobridge/iDirect
deployments
in
remote
communi6es
in
Malaysia
(leb)
and
to
remote
enterprises
(boom
right)
• Small
cells
ease
deployment
costs
by:
• Reducing
the
iniLal
CAPEX
investment
to
enter
a
new
market
or
area
• Opening
up
more
backhaul
opLons
in
remote
areas
• Reducing
on-­‐going
OPEX
in
remote
areas
• TargeLng
small
concentrated
pockets
of
users

18. Comparing
costs
• Small
cells
are:
• 5%
–
10%
of
macrocell
capex
• 10%-­‐25%
of
macrocell
opex
18/03/2015
18
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015

19. Small
cells
challenge
macrocells
even
on
cost
per
km2
18/03/2015
19
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
• Cost
benefits
of
small
cells
are
further
strengthened
if
users
are
concentrated
in
clusters
such
as
villages.
• Here
the
cost
per
subscriber
benefit
with
small
cells
will
be
greater
than
in
this
cost
per
km2
comparison.
• This
makes
mobile
more
affordable
for
low
ARPU
levels
and
low
populaLon
densiLes.
• For
current
ARPU
levels
our
analysis
indicates
the
following
break
even
populaLon
densiLes
for
the
above
assumed
small
cell
costs:
• 4.1
to
8.7
subscribers
per
km2
for
developing
naLons
• 1.2
to
2.5
subscribers
per
km2
for
developed
naLons.
Worst
case
needs
only
46
people
in
the
small
cell
area
to
break
even

20. Deployment
costs
for
real
popula6on
distribu6ons
18/03/2015
20
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
• We
have
analysed
real
populaLon
distribuLons
at
a
resoluLon
of
populaLon
data
commensurate
with
small
cell
range.
• We
apply
a
macrocell
and
small
cell
placement
algorithm
to
this
populaLon
database
to
obtain
cost
comparisons
for
different
mobile
extension
strategies.
• Example
graph
for
Germany
on
right
compares
the
total
cost
of
extending
mobile
coverage
from
60%
to
the
level
indicated
on
the
x
axis
for:
• A
macrocell
only
strategy
• A
small
cell
strategy
with
small
cells
at
varying
cost
levels
compared
with
macrocells
• This
shows
with
small
cells:
• 95%
of
the
populaLon
could
be
covered
for
half
the
total
cost
of
ownership
• Or
for
the
same
Int$2
billion
investment
an
extra
3%
of
coverage
could
be
gained.
• But
Germany
is
a
densely
populated
medium
sized
country
so
does
this
benefit
translate
to
other
countries?
95%
coverage
achieved
at
½
the
cost
with
small
cells
at
today’s
prices
Total
cost
of
ownership
(20
year
NPV)
to
extend
coverage
for
Germany

21. Every
country
in
our
analysis
benefits
from
small
cells
18/03/2015
21
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Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
• Have
analysed
for
rural
populaLons
in
countries
across:
• Europe
• Africa
• LaLn
America
• The
US
• South
East
Asia
• Placed
small
cells
at
‘best’
locaLons
to
increase
mobile
broadband
populaLon
coverage
from
current
levels
towards
100%
• Within
this
we
have
:
• Analysed
215
countries
and
US
states
• Considered
2.86
billion
people
• Spent
7,500
hours
of
simulaLons
• Regional
maps
shows
the
addiLonal
coverage
achieved
for
the
same
investment
via
small
cells
over
macrocells
i.e.
the
benefit
of
small
cells.
• We
conservaLvely
assume
small
cells
at
15%
of
macrocell
costs
in
line
with
today’s
prices
Every
country
analysed
benefits
although
the
extent
varies
with
distribu6on
of
gaps
rela6ve
to
popula6on
Benefit
of
small
cells
–
increase
in
popula6on
coverage
for
same
investment

22. Every
country
in
our
analysis
benefits
from
small
cells
18/03/2015
22
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Benefit
of
small
cells
–
increase
in
coverage
for
same
investment

23. Small
cells
have
a
huge
poten6al
impact
globally
• We
extrapolate
our
results
for
the
countries
analysed
to
a
worldwide
result
for
the
benefit
of
small
cells.
• 650
million
addi6onal
people
poten6ally
benefiHng
from
mobile
via
small
cells
worldwide.
• This
9%
increase
in
coverage
equates
to
$1
trillion
increase
in
GDP
worldwide.
• Number
of
people
benefixng
increases
sharply
as
small
cell
costs
fall.
18/03/2015
23
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Popula6on
benefi6ng
from
small
cells
globally
for
different
small
cell
cost
levels
650
million
people
benefiHng
worldwide

24. Key
Findings
• Rural
and
remote
users
increasingly
need
mobile
• MoLvaLons
for
mobile
differ
but
there
are
common
mobile
soluLon
requirements
• Small
cells
fit
these
common
requirements
excepLonally
well
technically
• Operators
can
tap
into
capLve,
previously
untapped
markets
via:
• Lower,
more
granular
deployment
costs
• Enabling
more
flexible
ecosystems
with
varying
levels
of
operator
involvement
• Small
cells
challenge
the
assumpLon
that
there
is
necessary
divide
between
urban
users
and
rural
and
remote
users
• The
economic
and
social
benefits
from
serving
this
market
segment
are
compelling
too
A
trillion
dollar
opportunity!
18/03/2015
24
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015
Users
Market
drivers
Requirements
Ecosystems
Users
Market
drivers
Requirements
Ecosystems
…
Sector
customisaLons
Sector
customisaLons
Core
small
cell
capabiliLes
Small
cell
ecosystem
Mobile
industry
Small
cells
are
the
“glue”
across
apparently
disparate
rural
and
remote
applica6ons
Rural
villages
Transport
Remote
industrial
Special
events
Public
safety
Disaster
recovery
/
humanitarian
Military

25. Contact
Real
Wireless
PO
Box
2218
Pulborough
West
Sussex
RH20
4XB
United
Kingdom
realwireless.biz
Tel:
+44
(0)
207
117
8514
Web:
www.realwireless.biz
Blog:
realwireless.biz/blog
Email:
info@realwireless.biz
Twiner:
twiner.com/real_wireless
18/03/2015
25
©
Real
Wireless
Ltd.
2015