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Thinksmallcell MWC 2016


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Small Cell State of the Nation presentation given by ThinkSmallCell at Small Cell Forum stand of Mobile World Congress 2016. Compares the commercial success of Carrier Wi-Fi, Small Cells, DAS and Remote Radio Heads with discussion of how the market is likely to evolve.

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Thinksmallcell MWC 2016

  1. 1. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   Small  Cells   State  of  the  Na.on   David  Chambers   Senior  Analyst  
  2. 2. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   •  Analyst  focused  on  Small  Cells  since  2008   •  Publish  ar.cles  and  insights  on  web  &  video   •  Communicate  to  targeted  industry  audience   Visit     •  Ar5cles   •  Webinar/Video   •  SlideShare   •  White  Papers     Sign-­‐up  for  our  monthly  newsleBer   Sponsor     •  Feature  ar5cles   •  White  Papers   •  Webinars       Ask  for  more  details   About  ThinkSmallCell  
  3. 3. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   3G/LTE  will  predominate  by  2020   Cisco  VNI  Feb  2016  
  4. 4. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   Global  transi.on  towards  LTE   Ericsson  Mobility  Report  2015   4GAmericas  Sep  2015   North  America  has   highest  share  of  LTE   subscribers  (198M  =   47%)     China  has  highest   number  of  LTE  subs   (>  380M  =  28%)     Europe  catching  up     VoLTE  follows  slowly  
  5. 5. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   Network  Capacity  Journey   LTE  +  new   spectrum   Refarm   2G  -­‐>  3G   Enable  Wi-­‐Fi   offload  at   home/office   Carrier   Wi-­‐Fi   3G/4G   Enterprise   Cellular   Urban  LTE   Small  Cell   Wi-­‐Fi   Homespot   LTE-­‐U/LAA   VoLTE   Refarm   3G  -­‐>  4G   VoWi-­‐Fi   Time   LTE  only   Enterprise/     MuLTeFire  
  6. 6. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   Where’s  the  money?   Cellular   Carrier  Wi-­‐Fi   Operator  Revenues   ~$1  Trillion   <$0.001  Trillion   Largest  Operators  (Revenue)   $91  Billion  (China  Mobile)   $87  Billion  (Verizon  Wireless)   $0.12  Billion  (Boingo)   $0.08  Billion  (iPass)   Network  Equipment  Spend   $43  Billion   (Excludes  professional  services)   $0.6  Billion   (Infone.cs  2014)   94%   4%  2%   RAN   DAS   Small  Cell   Carrier  Wi-­‐Fi  Revenues   are  <0.1%  of  cellular     Capital  Spend  is  1.4%   of  cellular     Total  Wi-­‐Fi  market  size   $14.8  Billion  
  7. 7. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   How  Wi-­‐Fi  Offload  differs   •  True  Wi-­‐Fi  offload  may  be  <5%[1]   –  Scenarios  where  user  unaware  traffic   carried  over  Wi-­‐Fi  and  uses  as  if  cellular   service   •  Voice  over  Wi-­‐Fi  capacity  limited   –  of  voice  unable  to   maintain  quality  for  ~6  calls/access   point   –  Heavy  home  data  streaming  can  affect   voice  calls   –  Wi-­‐Fi  has  10%  voice  capacity  per  MHz   compared  to  LTE  (Cisco[2])   [1]  Amdocs  State  of  the  RAN  2016   [2]  Cisco  at  Cambridge  Wireless,   ThinkSmallCell  report  Jan  2014   •  Devices  ac.vely  use  Wi-­‐Fi   differently  to  cellular   –  Defer  photo  uploads,  s/w  downloads  to   Wi-­‐Fi   •  Users  ac.vely  differen.ate  Wi-­‐Fi   availability   –  Choose  to  consume  more  video  when   on  Wi-­‐Fi,  for  cost  or  speed   –  As  a  “connec.on  of  last  resort”  
  8. 8. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   Wi-­‐Fi:  State  of  the  Na.on   Residen5al   Enterprise/Staff   Venues/Public   Urban  Outdoor   Massively  deployed,   mostly  by  fixed  BB   and  Cable     Variable  service   quality,  growing   demand  and   complexity   Massively  deployed,   mostly  by   independent  SIs     Robust  service,   .ghtly  secured;   poor  mobility   Widely  deployed,   ouen  by  local   independent  SIs     Variable  service   quality  &  security;   poor  mobility,  lacks   resilience   Municipal  schemes   commercially   dubious  viability     Variable  service   quality  &  security   FON  opening  access   to  wide  customer   base.     Unlikely  to   interwork  with   Carrier  Wi-­‐Fi   Commercial  conflict   between  Carrier  Wi-­‐ Fi/Passpoint  &   direct  customer   service   Passpoint  would  be   key  for  wider  take-­‐ up  
  9. 9. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   LTE  Features  for  Capacity  Gain   Radio  Feature   Capacity  Gain   Dependencies   Device   Sync   Latency   Evolu.on   NAICS   6-­‐10%   ✔   ✔   ✔   MIMO   4x2  MIMO   23%   4x4  MIMO   77%   ✔   Intra-­‐site  CoMP   10-­‐25%   ✔   Small  Cells   3  x  ePico   350%   eICIC/FeICIC   320%   ✔   ✔   ✔   Smart  FeICIC   350%   ✔   ✔   ✔   Dual  Connec.vity   32%   ✔   ✔   ✔   LTE-­‐U   200%   ✔   Mul.-­‐Sector   6  Sector   80%   eMBMS   Service  dependent   ✔   ✔   Source:  Erol   Hepsaydir,   Three  UK,   HetNet   World  2015  
  10. 10. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   Small  Cells:  State  of  the  Na.on   Residen5al   Enterprise   Urban   Rural   Few  new   deployments  but   some  surprises   (T-­‐Mobile  USA)     Millions  embedded   at  Free  France,  saving   spectrum/roaming   fees   Most   segment.  Split   between  small/med   and  med/large     Growing  credibility   for  larger  buildings   Technically  viable  but   held  back  by  logis.cs,   planning  vs   alterna.ves     Likely  to  be  LTE  only,   targewed  zones   Increased  interest   although  small  part   of  total  market       Higher  RF  power  and   3G/LTE  required  for   with  4G  only  VoLTE   3G/LTE  important   today,  LTE  for  future     Neutral  host   Logis.cs  and  3rd  party   deployment   Regulatory  drive  for   coverage  targets  
  11. 11. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   DAS:  State  of  the  Na.on   Residen5al   Enterprise/Staff   Venues/Public   Urban  Outdoor   Rarely  found  except  in   some  larger   apartment  complexes/ mixed  use  buildings   Larger  buildings,   typically  2G/3G     Newer  systems   incorporate  LTE   Mul.-­‐operator     Compa.bility  with   macro  networks     High  capacity   ODAS  where  fibre   plen.ful     Allows  neutral  hosts  to   address  urban  zones     Would  require  product   architecture   Upgrading  to  LTE   considered  expensive     LTE-­‐U/LAA  less   appropriate   Specialist  engineering,   ongoing  evolu.on       Competes  with  RRH   from  RAN  vendors    
  12. 12. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   Remote  Radio  Heads   •  “Distributed  basesta.ons”  including  RRH  and  similar   (e.g.  Radio  DOT,  Lampsite)   •  Brings  radio  heads  back  into  scope  of  RAN  equipment   vendors   Benefits     •  Compa.ble  with  macrocell  layer   (where  present)   •  Compa.ble  with   opera.onal  processes   Disadvantages     •  Underlays  3rd  party  macrocells  in   some  regions   •  Processes  may  need  to  differ   •  Typically  locked  to  single  network   operator  
  13. 13. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   Enterprise  Wireless  Choices   Mul.-­‐Operator   Single  Operator*   *Mul.-­‐Operator  possible  via  MORAN/ MOCN  or  installing  parallel/duplicate  kit   Wi-­‐Fi   Small  Cell   RRH  DAS   MuLTeFire   Small  Cell  
  14. 14. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   Neutral  Hosts  become  arbiter   •  Aggregate  large  numbers  of   small  installa.ons   •  Connect  to  mul.ple   operators   …etc.  
  15. 15. ©  2016  ThinkSmallCell  Ltd.   Take-­‐aways   •  Wi-­‐Fi     –  Cordless  service  inside  the  home/office   –  No  money  in  Carrier  Wi-­‐Fi  today   •  Mobile  Capacity  =  LTE  +  Small  Cells   –  3G/4G  mul.-­‐mode  indoor  first   –  VoLTE  when  mature   •  Growing  focus  on  Enterprise   –  Shared  costs  with  building  owners   –  Neutral  host  business  model