How can the pharma industry harness in-the-moment mobile forecasting to get closer to the point of prescription? To answer this question, we presented a case study at the Pharma Market Research Conference (PMRC) USA 2017, which was held on Feb 1-2, 2017 in Parsippany, New Jersey.

1. The only way
is mobile
Julia Lang Bill Salokar
Analyst VP, Client Solutions
SKIM SKIM
Drug forecasting in the age
of personalised medicine

2. An innovative approach to drug forecasting
– in-the-moment mobile research enables
collection of robust data close to
the point of prescription.
Drug forecasting in the age of personalised medicine
The only way is mobile

3. Crowded markets, increasingly diverse patient groups
Setting the context…
A
B
C

4. Crowded markets, increasingly diverse patient groups
Forecast gets
more difficult
No more
generalisation
Setting the context…

5. Over-generalisation or excessive cognitive burden compromise data
Conventional methods don’t cut it
Too simple Too complex

6. - Emotions wear off
- Recall fades
- Answer solely based on rational factors (e.g. hard clinical facts)
+ Based on more softer factors
+ Easier to recall why
+ Answer based on a combination of soft (irrational) and hard (rational) factors
OCCURRENCE MEASUREMENT
OCCURRENCE MEASUREMENT

7. The
only way
is mobile

8. Simplify data collection, but account for market complexity
Account for complexity simply
3 minutes of
mobile closed-
ended questions
2 minute
voice memo
Forms via direct
mail
15 minute
online survey

9. Simple & quick
to complete

10. Individual, unique & representative data
Actual patients, no
generalizations

11. Collection of focussed, relevant information
EGFR+ EGFR+
Valid outcomes

12. Core forecast data gathered
Robust forecasting based on high sample of cases
3%
4%
4%
18%
8%
44%
16%
EGFR+
12%
8%
3%
4%
4%
16%
6%
37%
6%
EGFR+
Docetaxel mono
Alimta (+/- cis/carbo)
Other chemo
Tarceva (+/- cis/carbo)
Iressa (+/- cis/carbo)
Giotrif mono
Xalkori mono
Clinical Trials
Other
Product A
Product B
Product D
Product E
All 4 new
products
launched
Patientshares
Future Market Future Market
Only A & E
launched
Current Market
7%
5%
3%
4%
4%
15%
5%
34%
6%
EGFR+

13. 11% 10% 7%
32%
22%
7%
18%
34%
64%
39%
35%
21%
Product E
Product D
Product B
Product A
10%
4%
13%
25%
11% 9%
17% 26%
25%
22%
25%
18% 21%
42% 34%
50%
67%
38%
21%
31%
31%
36%
13% 11% 13%
50%
39%
Collection of focussed, relevant information
Patient data gives further insight
Patient Comorbidities Patient ECOG Group

14. Collection of focussed, relevant information
Qualitative data provides depth
Product E Product A Product B Product D
60%
40%
0%
0%
0%
13%
(Very) Good OS/PFS
Good safety profile
Good experience in
Melanoma
No Docetaxel: wide
applicability
It is a single agent
Oral formulation
advantageous
17%
7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
33%
17%
0%
0%
0%
0%
33%
20%
23%
10%
13%
0%

15. Insight into drivers of choice
Qualitative data provides depth
Physicians are impressed
with Product E’s efficacy
Product D - innovative
therapy with good efficacy
(in melanoma)

16. Benefits…
Robust data – patient records
without associated problems
Applications in market potential,
segmentation, Tx pathway
Less post-rationalisation responses
close to point of prescription
Accounts for indications with wide variety of
patient types, or highly individualised treatment
(e.g. biomarker-based treatment)

17. Practical considerations
Some over-recruitment needed
Incentives to maximise
participation
Not necessarily cheaper than
current methods

18. Mobile increases accuracy of forecast by adding patient level insights
Business impact
Use
data in
comms
80%

19. Impact on positioning
Clear patient types Differentiation Positioning

20. increase in
confidence
at every level
Business impact

21. Questions?