“Financing Africa's Sustainable Development” by Amadou Sy, Brookings Institution

1. 1
Financing Africa’s
Sustainable Development
• Amadou Sy, Tuesday, May 12, 2015

2. 2
Outline
1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable
development agenda
2. Africa’s structural economic transformation
3. Building on the Monterrey financing for development
consensus
4. Case study: Financing Africa’s Infrastructure
5. Conclusions

3. 3
Outline
1. The Common African Position on the post-2015
sustainable development agenda
2. Africa’s structural economic transformation
3. Building on the Monterrey financing for development
consensus
4. Case study: Financing Africa’s Infrastructure
5. Conclusions

4. 4
Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-2015
Development Agenda: Ownership & common interests
• “…we come as 54 countries in unison, determined to
represent a broad spectrum of stakeholders…”
• “…unique opportunity for Africa to articulate its
common priorities, opportunities, and challenges…we
affirm our collective interests…
• “…we stress that the post-2015 Development Agenda
should also reflect Africa’s priorities and development
programs…”

5. 5
Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-
2015 Development Agenda: Six Pillars
1. Structural economic transformation and inclusive
growth.
2. Science, technology, and innovation.
3. People-centered development.
4. Environmental sustainability, natural resources
management, and disaster risk management.
5. Peace and security
6. Finance and partnerships

6. 6
Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-
2015 Development Agenda: Pillar Six
Pillar 6 of the CAP is to be linked with the first 5 pillars.
• Improving domestic resource mobilization;
• Maximizing innovative financing;
• Implementing existing commitments and promoting
quality and predictability of external financing;
• Promoting mutually beneficial partnerships;
Strengthening partnerships for trade;
• Establish partnerships for managing global commons

7. 7
Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-2015
Development Agenda: Uneven progress toward MDGs
• Advances in areas but uneven progress in others:
Source: World Bank

8. 8
Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-2015
Development Agenda: ODA < 0.7% of GNI
Source: OECD

9. 9
Outline
1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable
development agenda
2. Africa’s structural economic transformation
3. Building on the Monterrey financing for development
consensus
4. Case study: Financing Africa’s Infrastructure
5. Conclusions

10. 10
Growth convergence
• Africa has made progress in lowering some of the country-
specific obstacles that was holding it back. There is of
course room for improvement in levels of investment,
human capital, and quality of policies (“growth
fundamentals”) and it is important that policymakers not
only continue improving economic and political governance
but accelerate the pace of reforms.
• But as noted by Rodrik (2014), investment in “growth
fundamentals” alone has not been shown to lead to rapid
and sustainable growth. As a result, the focus is on the role
of structural transformation in the growth process of the
continent.

11. 11
A closer look at Africa’s growth performance
Trend component in GDP growth (%), 1980-2019p
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Africa
EMDEV
Advanced
Source: IMF WEO, April 2014 and HP filter used for trend and cyclical components.

12. 12
A closer look at Africa’s growth performance
GDP per capita, 1970 =100
Source: ACET (2014); Earlier transformers countries include Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam.

13. 13
Africa’s Structural Economic Transformation
Typology of growth processes
Source: Rodrik (2014)

14. 14
Africa’s Structural Economic Transformation
• The structure of African economies has not changed much since
the 1980s and most countries remain dependent on extractive
industries and low-yield agriculture.
• The contribution of manufacturing—mostly dominated by small
and informal firms—to output is negligible and the services sector
includes a large share of informal activities in urban areas.
• Industrialization in Africa is now lower than in the 1970s.
Manufacturing industries’ share of employment is now below 8
percent and their share in GDP has fallen to 10 percent from
about 15 percent in 1975 (selected 11 countries data).

15. 15
Challenges for Economic Transformation
• African agriculture is its least productive sector and has the
lowest income and consumption levels. McMillan and
Harttgen (2014) estimates that the share of the labor force
engaged in agriculture fell by about 10 percent during
2000-2010 while services and manufacturing employment
grew by 8 and 2 percent, respectively.
• The problem as noted by Rodrik (2014) is that African labor
is migrating from agriculture and rural areas, but instead of
moving to formal manufacturing industries, it is being
absorbed largely in the services sector, which is not
particularly productive and dominated by informal activities.

16. 16
The Agenda for Africa’s transformation
1. Increase productivity in the agriculture sector
2. Revitalize manufacturing (agribusines, role of China and
South-South cooperation, global value chains)
3. Services sector (build on the ICT sector, mobile banking)
4. Better management and use of natural resources wealth
5. Address Africa’s infrastructure deficit

17. 17
Outline
1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable
development agenda
2. Africa’s structural economic transformation
3. Building on the Monterrey financing for development
consensus
4. Case study: Financing Africa’s Infrastructure
5. Conclusions

18. 18
Building on the Monterrey Financing for
Development Consensus
• Monterrey Consensus covers key elements
» Domestic Resource Mobilization, national financing
plans and country-led development
» Private capital flows
» Trade as an engine of growth
» International financial and technical cooperation
» External Debt
» Global monetary, financial and trading systems

19. 19
Building on the Monterrey Financing for
Development Consensus
1. Domestic Revenue Mobilization & national financing plans
» Public finance (< 1% of ODA goes to DRM)
» DSA and Domestic and external debt management
» Financial and capital markets development
2. External Finance:
» Spillover effects of financial crises, changes in global
monetary policy
» Capital account liberalization and management
» Unintended consequences of global regulation
(Basel III, AML/CFT)
3. Financing Infrastructure

20. 20
Building on the Monterrey Financing for
Development Consensus: a Tailored approach
Sub-Saharan Africa: External Flows by Income Level
(Deviations from SSA 1990-2012 average, in percent of GDP)
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
ODA
Private capital
Government
revenue
Remittances
MICs Oil Exporting NRRHG SSA Fragile/LICs
Source: Sy and Rakotondrazaka (2015)

21. 21
Domestic fiscal space (Revenue/GDP)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Oil Exporting Countries Non-Oil Exporting Countries
Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).

22. 22
Outline
1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable
development agenda
2. Africa’s structural economic transformation
3. Building on the Monterrey financing for development
consensus
4. Case study: Financing Africa’s Infrastructure
5. Conclusions

23. 23
Financing African Infrastructure

24. 24
Surge in external financing to Infrastructure
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
US$ millions
PPI China ODF
Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).

25. 25
External financing concentration (2009-12)
Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).
17%
11%
10%
8%
7%
47%
South Africa
Nigeria
Ghana
Kenya
Ethiopia
Other (46)

26. 26
Energy expanding, telecom maturing
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
US$ millions
Energy Telecom Transport Water Supply & Sanitation
Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).

27. 27
PPI dominant in telecom (2005-2013)
19%
2%
64%
0%
4%
1%
10%
0% 0%
Electricity
Natural Gas
Telecom
Airports
Railroads
Roads
Seaports
Water Treatment
Water Utility
Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).

28. 28
ODF particularly relevant in non-ICT
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
US$ millions
Energy Telecom Transport Water Supply & Sanitation
Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).

29. 29
Chinese financing growing significantly
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
US$ millions
Energy Telecom Transport Water Supply & Sanitation
Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).

30. 30
Chinese financing favoring stable economies
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2005-2008 2009-2012
Fragile Low Income Non-Fragile Low Income
Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).

31. 31
Traditional financing matrix now in flux
Source: Gutman, Sy, and Chattopadhyay (2015).
Sectors Government ODF China PPI
Energy    
Telecommunication 
Transport    
Water  
Transport Government ODF China PPI
Airports  
Railroads   
Roads   
Seaports   

32. 32
Concerns:
• Sub-national/urban infrastructure ignored (both in
assessing needs and in financing)
• Emphasis on facilitating projects have ignored governance,
coordination, and efficiency gains
• Complementarity in financing across sources, countries,
sectors is purely serendipitous
• Traditional coordination mechanisms ill-suited in new
economic environment with new and multiple stakeholders
• PPI, outside telecom, has had limited distribution

33. 33
Recommendations:
Build on existing institutional structures and functions, rather
than invent new institutions
• Enhance collaboration and coordination across traditional
and non-traditional sources of finance
• Regional guidance of investment practices for economic,
social, environmental sustainability (sustainable
infrastructure)
• Extend opportunities for private investment
• Improve public financing support including sub-
national/urban finance and investment
• Focus on broader sectoral governance reform
opportunities

34. 34
Outline
1. The Common African Position on the post-2015 sustainable
development agenda
2. Africa’s structural economic transformation
3. Building on the Monterrey financing for development
consensus
4. Case study: Financing Africa’s Infrastructure
5. Conclusions

35. 35
Common African Position (CAP) on the Post-
2015 Development Agenda: Six Pillars
Pillar 6 of the CAP is to be linked with the first 5 pillars.
• Improving domestic resource mobilization;
• Maximizing innovative financing;
• Implementing existing commitments and promoting
quality and predictability of external financing;
• Promoting mutually beneficial partnerships;
• Strengthening partnerships for trade;
• Establish partnerships for managing global commons

36. 36
Conclusions
• Domestic resources mobilization should be the
priority
» Public finance: transparency, public financial
management.
» Capital markets development: local institutional base,
debt sustainability, debt management.
• It is not just about the money:
» what exactly are we financing? what is the broader
strategy? (e.g. the $93 infrastructure gap can be
reduced by $17bn through productivity gains)
» consider the non financial benefit of the financial flows
(technology transfer, local content regulation)

37. 37
A Busy Agenda in 2015
• Third International Conference on Financing
for Development, 13-16 July, 2015, Addis
Ababa.
• United Nations Summit to adopt the post-
2015 development agenda, 25-27 September
2015, New York.
• United Nations Climate Change Conference,
COP21, 30 November-11 December 2015, Paris.