What future for the
different electricity
sources?
SFEN
“Atoms for the Future” 2013
Yves Giraud,
Generation Economics & St...
Once upon a time, Europe had a dream….

2
Back to Coal !

3
Coal, the king of the ring

 First in the world
 Highly standardized - 2000 €/kW
 Flexible
 Fuel easy to extract and t...
Gas, a (fallen) sprinter

 Easy, fast and cheap
(900 €/kW)

 Clean compared to coal
 Today CCGT in Europe are closing
b...
Low carbon energy

Nuclear
13%

33% of the
world
electricity
generation

Hydro
16%
other
renwables
4%

6
Energy efficiency, a solution to reduce
electricity demand

 Clean
 High costs (1000 to 4000 €/KW)
 Bad return on inves...
Renewables, like a dream

 Advanced technologies
 Easy to implement
 Clean ?
 Costs depending on technologies

Parc éo...
Nuclear nightmare?

March 2011 Fukushima

9
Time for a nuclear dream!

Parc éolien de 30 MW, à Mistretta, en
Sicile

 Low carbon

 Difficult, long and expensive
(> ...
Lots of countries see a future for nuclear

Existing reactors and new build
projects
New build projects/programmes
Exsitin...
Opinion on nuclear is not that bad
Question: what is your opinion of the use of nuclear energy in your country?
In favour
...
The benefits of nuclear are well known
Residential electricity prices (€/MWh) in H2 2012*
300

 Affordable electricity

€...
Nuclear remains a competitive technology
WIND, SOLAR PV

NEW BUILD COAL,
GAS AND NUCLEAR

85 - 185
€/MWh
EXISTING
NUCLEAR
...
Existing: achieve life extension

 USA : 70 of 104 reactors have already
obtained the license for 60 years

 The « Grand...
Belgium: a new mechanism for securing Tihange 1
nuclear life extension?
Market price

Margin

Fixed price
State

?

Operat...
New Build: brighter times ahead for nuclear!

17
The challenge of the investment cost
€/kWg

Wind, PV
?

EPR
1500 MW

Nuclear

1300 MW
900 MW

1980

1990

2000

2010

18
Nuclear development is being driven by
non-OECD countries (mainly Asia)

*Note: New Policies Scenario. Source: IEA World E...
European industry must continue its nuclear history
both for international and renewal of existing
OLKILUOTO 3
(Areva)

Op...
UK : Hinkley Point C, as it will be in the future

21
The CFD is a long term contract providing
stability to both customers and investors

92,5 £/MWh

22
Poland: a robust process is underway which in a
sense can be compared to the commitment of UK
 A strong political commitm...
Towards a new market design

 Difficulties to launch nuclear projects
in a deregulated market….

 … as for any other tec...
Let’s start a new dream with nuclear

 Nuclear will play
an important role

 Life extension must be achieved
 A vital n...
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Yves GIRAUD the EDF Generation Economics & Strategy Director (Atoms for the Future 2013)

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In a very optimistic lecture, Yves GIRAUD, the EDF Generation Economics & Strategy Director, then compared different electricity sources to conclude that nuclear energy will play an important role in the future.

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Yves GIRAUD the EDF Generation Economics & Strategy Director (Atoms for the Future 2013)

  1. 1. What future for the different electricity sources? SFEN “Atoms for the Future” 2013 Yves Giraud, Generation Economics & Strategy Director EDF Paris, 22nd October 2013 1
  2. 2. Once upon a time, Europe had a dream…. 2
  3. 3. Back to Coal ! 3
  4. 4. Coal, the king of the ring  First in the world  Highly standardized - 2000 €/kW  Flexible  Fuel easy to extract and transport  CCS ? 40% of the world electricity generation 4
  5. 5. Gas, a (fallen) sprinter  Easy, fast and cheap (900 €/kW)  Clean compared to coal  Today CCGT in Europe are closing because of low coal and CO2 prices 22% of the world electricity generation 5
  6. 6. Low carbon energy Nuclear 13% 33% of the world electricity generation Hydro 16% other renwables 4% 6
  7. 7. Energy efficiency, a solution to reduce electricity demand  Clean  High costs (1000 to 4000 €/KW)  Bad return on investment 7
  8. 8. Renewables, like a dream  Advanced technologies  Easy to implement  Clean ?  Costs depending on technologies Parc éolien de 30 MW, à Mistretta, en Sicile (1000 €/kW to 4000 €/kW)  In the right place at the right time 8
  9. 9. Nuclear nightmare? March 2011 Fukushima 9
  10. 10. Time for a nuclear dream! Parc éolien de 30 MW, à Mistretta, en Sicile  Low carbon  Difficult, long and expensive (> 4000 €/MW)  Competitive (over the long term)  Good for employment  Stable price  Long construction time  Complex (political, legal and safety) 10
  11. 11. Lots of countries see a future for nuclear Existing reactors and new build projects New build projects/programmes Exsiting reactors with no new build projects Nuclear exit or phase out 11
  12. 12. Opinion on nuclear is not that bad Question: what is your opinion of the use of nuclear energy in your country? In favour Favorable Against Opposé 34 13 34 14 34 15 34 16 29 18 19 Unsure Hésitant No opinion Sans opinion 22 31 15 37 35 16 30 22 20 34 50 15 26 68 Source: CSA; questionnaire realised between 26/11/12 and 18/12/12 6 6 7 12
  13. 13. The benefits of nuclear are well known Residential electricity prices (€/MWh) in H2 2012* 300  Affordable electricity €228/MWh European average of 17 Eurozone countries outside of France 250 222 200  Security of supply, helping the trade balance 228 230 Belgium Spain Italy 268 179 150 145 100 50 0  Low carbon electricity generation  A large number of job opportunities in high performing industries France UK Germany CO2 emissions (gCO2/kWh) in 2010** 800 600 400 Average OECD-Europe 200 0 France *Source: Eurostat H2 2012 **Source: IEA Facts 2012 Belgium Spain Italy UK Germany Poland 13
  14. 14. Nuclear remains a competitive technology WIND, SOLAR PV NEW BUILD COAL, GAS AND NUCLEAR 85 - 185 €/MWh EXISTING NUCLEAR + additional system costs 70 à 100 €/MWh ~55 €/MWh Cour des Comptes 38 €/MWh 2012 Tariffs Part of base load generation Existing Nuclear New SC Coal, gas and NNB Renewables 14
  15. 15. Existing: achieve life extension  USA : 70 of 104 reactors have already obtained the license for 60 years  The « Grand carénage » in France An opportunity for our industry  An industrial, human and financial challenge 15
  16. 16. Belgium: a new mechanism for securing Tihange 1 nuclear life extension? Market price Margin Fixed price State ? Operator 70% of revenues 30% of revenues €/MWh “Fair margin” Life extension costs Under negotiation €41.8* Bill adopted by the Government Generation costs Tihange NPP  Belgium Government is considering setting a fixed price* for electricity generated from Tihange 1  Any revenues above this price will be split between the State and the operator by 70% and 30%, respectively *€41.8/MWh as announced in L’Echo 16
  17. 17. New Build: brighter times ahead for nuclear! 17
  18. 18. The challenge of the investment cost €/kWg Wind, PV ? EPR 1500 MW Nuclear 1300 MW 900 MW 1980 1990 2000 2010 18
  19. 19. Nuclear development is being driven by non-OECD countries (mainly Asia) *Note: New Policies Scenario. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 19
  20. 20. European industry must continue its nuclear history both for international and renewal of existing OLKILUOTO 3 (Areva) Optimisation FLAMANVILLE 3 EPR feedback experience Extended range of models POLAND 1 & 2? HINKLEY POINT ? TAISHAN 1 & 2 ARABIE SAOUDITE HINKLEY POINT 3 & 4? SAUDI ARABIA? 20
  21. 21. UK : Hinkley Point C, as it will be in the future 21
  22. 22. The CFD is a long term contract providing stability to both customers and investors 92,5 £/MWh 22
  23. 23. Poland: a robust process is underway which in a sense can be compared to the commitment of UK  A strong political commitment to the polish nuclear programme: – 2011: “Nuclear Package” voted almost unanimously – – – – (407 for vs. 2 against) by the Parliament 2012: PGE announces a package of Integrated Proceedings for the first nuclear project Spring 2013: preliminary dialogue with interested bidders End-2013: finalisation of Polish Nuclear Programme 2025-2030: target commissioning date for 6,000MW  EDF and its partner Areva have announced their intention to participate in the Polish NNB programme 23
  24. 24. Towards a new market design  Difficulties to launch nuclear projects in a deregulated market….  … as for any other technologies  Let’s invent a new market design for nuclear 24
  25. 25. Let’s start a new dream with nuclear  Nuclear will play an important role  Life extension must be achieved  A vital need for NNB projects 25

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