Retrofit aggregation: What can Canada learn from the Netherlands?
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http://www.pembina.org/event/sustainable-neighbourhood-transformations-retrofit-social-housing Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze May 31, 2017
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Retrofit aggregation: What can Canada learn from the Netherlands?
- 1. Retrofit aggregation What can Canada learn from the Netherlands? Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze Senior Advisor, Pembina Institute May 31, 2017 @tompierrefs
- 2. 2 Leading Canada’s transition to clean energy The Pembina Institute is a non-profit think-tank that advocates for strong, effective policies to support Canada's clean-energy transition.
- 3. Reference case CLP + Fed. Carbon price -33% 2020 -30% from 2005, based on federal target -80% 2050 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Annual emissions in Mt CO2e (+ forestry credits) B.C. emissions CIMS modeling by Navius
- 4. Proposed building sector targets 40-50% by 2030 80-100% by 2050
- 5. Emissions from B.C. buildings 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GHGemissionsfrombuildings(Mt) Business as usual Net-zero ready policy Net-zero ready policy + Retrofit strategy 40%-50% 2030 80%-100% 2050 Targets: 3% retrofit rate electrify 1 out of 2 25% GHG reduction in rest
- 6. BUSINESS CASE $ $ $ $ SIMPLIFIED ACCESS RETROFITS AT SCALE • Carbon pricing • Retrofit codes • Public financing CONSUMER AWARENESS • Electrification strategy DEEP EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS • Demand aggregation • Innovative financing mechanisms • Integrated delivery • Energy disclosure • Valuation of non-energy benefits INDUSTRY CAPACITY Conditions for success 6
- 8. QUALITY Long-year warranty energy performance house NON-INTRUSIVE Refurbishment within one week AFFORDABLE Financeable from energy cost savings IMPROVE LOOK & FEEL Make the neighbours jealous Slide: Energiesprong
- 10. DEAL: 111,000 NET ZERO ENERGY REFURBISHMENTS housing associations construction companies Slide: Energiesprong
- 14. V1: 2 WEEKS V2: 1 WEEK V3: 1 DAY Slide: Energiesprong
- 28. 28 REALIZE May 4-5, 2017 | San Francisco, CA Catalyzing Market Based Pathways to Zero Slide: RMI
- 29. 29 Three Prototypical San Francisco Building Types Prototypes selected represent majority of the affordable housing market Category:5-9 unit buildings Market Share: 8.9% (~6.2K units) 6 Unit Prototype • Built pre-1980s • 4,725 sqft • 3 stories • Row home • Furnace, no cooling* • Individual gas HW heater Category: 10-19 unit buildings Market Share: 22.5% (~16K units) 15 Unit Prototype • Built pre-1980s • 11,270 sqft • 3 stories • Stand alone building • Furnace, no cooling* • Central gas HW heater Category: 20+ unit building Market Share: 66.2% (~46K units) 65 Unit Prototype • Built pre-1980s • 40,900 sqft • 5 stories • Stand alone building • Central boiler, no cooling* Central gas HW heater Major Takeaways: • Majority of buildings (~65%) were constructed prior to 1980 and likely have gas furnace heating • Majority of affordable housing buildings are three stories or less *58% of San Francisco homes use NG, 36% electricity according to a ACEEE 2017 report Slide: RMI
- 30. 30 Results Summary For the 6 and 15 unit prototype there are many paths to net zero. For the 65 unit prototype you can reach net zero, but costs will need to be reduced. Slide: RMI
- 31. Energy Consumption in non- profit housing Graph: BC-NPHA
- 32. Current unfunded liability: $400 Million Graph: BC-NPHA …and by 2028: $3 Billions
- 33. Social housing stock in B.C. 33 1,220 6,148 24,060 3,482 11,763 363 12,832 5,666 4,277 # of units High Rise - BC Housing Apartment - BC Housing Apartment - NPHA Townhouse - BC Housing Townhouse - NPHA Duplex, Single Family House - BC Housing Duplex, Single Family House - NPHA Other - BC Housing Other - NPHA Apartment Townhouse SFD-Duplexes Other Data: BC Housing, BC-NPHA
- 34. Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze tompierrefs@pembina.org @tompierrefs pembina.org Subscribe – our perspectives to your inbox. twitter.com/pembina facebook.com/pembina.institute
- 35. Building stock evolution 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 BuildingFloorArea(millionm2) Pre-2000 construction 2000-2010 construction Net-zero energy ready 1/3 2/3 1/2 1/2 TODAY
- 36. BUSINESS CASE $ $ $ $ SIMPLIFIED ACCESS RETROFITS AT SCALE • Carbon pricing • Retrofit codes • Public financing CONSUMER AWARENESS • Electrification strategy DEEP EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS • Demand aggregation • Innovative financing mechanisms • Integrated delivery • Energy disclosure • Valuation of non-energy benefits INDUSTRY CAPACITY Strategies 36