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6RussBowman_NICHI_BusinessSummit
- 1. The Triple Threat (to Homeland and National Security) Russ Bowman, JD Northeastern University Center for Resilience Studies
- 2. Mission: To play a leadership role in building societal resilience by learning from disasters and teaching and advancing the lessons learned.
- 3. Resilience The ability to – prepare for and – adapt to changing conditions and the ability to – withstand and – recover rapidly from disruptions (“all hazards”). President Policy Directive (PDD) 21 “Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience,” February 12, 2013
- 4. Preparedness • Prevention • Protection • Mitigation • Response • Recovery
- 5. Response Challenges (that you already know intuitively) • Increasing Frequency & Complexity of Large-Scale Events • Complex Interdependencies & Cascading Systems Failures
- 6. DWH Albert Ettinger Tyrone Turner, National Geographic
- 7. Super Storm Sandy AP Layston Badham, Morristowngreen.com John O'Boyle, The Star-Ledger
- 8. Key Lessons “Learned” • The first responders are always local; citizens are indispensible strategic assets; but…. • Large-scale disasters impact regional systems and, therefore, require enhanced capability/capacity to undertake all preparedness “missions” at the regional level. • Resilience requires better understanding of interdependencies and cascading effects.
- 9. Preparedness • Prevention • Protection • Mitigation • Response • Recovery
- 10. Resilience-Centric Approach to Infrastructure Improvement • ID critical functions • Map or model (1) components & operations, (2) interdependencies, (3) geographic boundaries & (4) governance • Evaluate vulnerability & consequences • Distinguish between essential & full function Identify and adopt resilience design features, processes, and protocols that mitigate the risk of disruption, and speed response / recovery when mitigation measures fail.
- 11. Performance (Percent) 100 80 60 40 20 0 D R B A BT C Time ResilienceParameters D = DisruptiontoSystem R = Capabilitytoattenuateor mitigateeffect priorto or attimeofevent A = Capabilitytoabsorbanddegrade B = Bottom out; ThresholdLevel BT = Lengthoftimeatbottom C = Capabilitytoreconstitutebackto initiallevel T1 T2 T3 Source: J. Kahan, et. Al., Risk and Resilience: Exploring the Relationship, Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute, Nov 20, 2010 & Mary Ellen Hynes, “Extreme Loading of Physical Infrastructure” presentation at the 4th DHS University Network Summit, March 11, 2010. Resilience, Graphically
- 13. National Security? • Threat = Intent x Capability • Resilience Reduces National Security Risk – Lowering Consequences Undermines Intent – Lessening Vulnerability Requires Adversary To Acquire More Capability
- 14. Improving Resilience - Takeaways Greater emphasis / investment is needed in – forecasting – modeling – monitoring and – assessing that – support / inform prevention / protection & mitigation – speed response & recovery
- 15. Resilience and Competitiveness People will chose to invest in companies and live in areas that possess resilience and gravitate away from those that do not.
- 16. Resilience is a Homeland and National Security Imperative.
Editor's Notes
- Prospective and retrospective; Resilience in a broader sense: both robustness, and ability to “bounce back”
- Current Policy Guidance Evolution of preparedness post 9/11 in 60 seconds HSPD 5 / HSPD 8 standardized (ICS) inter-governmental National Response Plan / Later National Response Framework.. Focus has been on “response” – so we have a little more data / study on that front (although not as much as you’d think…) Focus of my efforts (so I’ll begin there, briefly, before coming to the focus of today’s summit)
- In today’s “built” environment, even if you are agnostic to “climate change” science, these facts deserve your attention.
- Left: Orange Beach, Alabama (some of the 650+ miles of oiled beach) Right: Taste of Chicago. “Perception is Reality” Inter-dependencies: Tourism, Commercial (and Recreational) Fishing, Offshore Drilling (Energy), Catering, Transportation
- Conventional wisdom is all disasters are local. Experience shows that, increasingly, this is no longer the case.
- Studying Response Policy = Learning to Better Play the Hand We are Dealt. Power of today’s focus: Learning to deal ourselves a better hand! Problem with Response: Crisis-Driven Policy Improvements. (Sandy is a “Teaching Moment” / Policy Window) BUT, need to ensure we are not “Fighting the Last War.” We need to continue those efforts. But, simultaneously, we need to do more. That’s the point of the shift in disaster response policy we have seen…. PPD-8; broadened the scope of preparation to the 5 missions areas, and broadened the target audience to the “whole community” of actors.
- Of the triple threat, which threat can we most affect? Thus, the focus of the balance of my comments..
- What are we trying to accomplish? A shallower negative slope at A - “capability” to absorb / graceful (intelligent) degradation (engineering term) Steeper positive slope at C – “capability” to reconstitute
- Local, regional, and national competitiveness will increasingly be defined by the level of resilience that communities and countries have to withstand, nimbly respond, and rapidly recover from shocks and disruptive events.