Competitive Pressures for Long Term Supported Control Systems Products


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Presented by Chris Smith, Invensys/Foxboro

This presentation provides an insight into the way in which we market long term hardware support products and include next generation features, retain last generation features and jettison outdated features to provide new offerings in the conservative systems infrastructure market. Common everyday examples are chosen to illustrate key points and ideas along with real-life timeframes and industry argument.

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Competitive Pressures for Long Term Supported Control Systems Products

  1. 1. Standards Certification Education & Training Publishing Conferences & Exhibits Competitive Pressures Innovation and the resolution of social and competitive pressures in Long Term Systems Products
  2. 2. 2 Christopher J Smith • M.Eng.Sci. (Systems and Control ) UNSW, Australia 1989 • Brand Director, Foxboro SCADA – 23 years today – FAX - Web 1 - Web 2 Era – Fortran,Pascal,C,C++ – Prolog – Carbon Paper,Telex,Fax,Email – Blog,Twitter SYDNEY, Australia @CJX07STER
  3. 3. Motivation “Why so scrawny, cat? Starving for fat fish or mice... Or backyard love?” ― Matsuo Bashō, Japanese Haiku 3
  4. 4. 4 ISA 2013 ISA 201 2
  5. 5. On Fat Fish…. 5
  6. 6. On love and texting… 6 This sentence was written from Washington by me at the Baltimore Terminal at 8h.45 min AM on Friday May 24th. 1844, being the first ^ ever transmitted from Washington to Baltimore ^ by telegraph , and was indited by my much loved friend, Annie G. Ellsworth.
  7. 7. Emotive Disruption 7 1840 1850 1860 1870 Transatlantic Cable Johnson GrantBuchananPeirceFilmoreZ TPolkTyler Morse‟s Test Telegra m Transcontinental Telegraph Service Trans-Tasman Cable [Australia] Overland Telegraph [Australia] • Electromagnetism Discovered [1820] - Orsted • Electromagnet invented [1824] – Sturgeon • Practical Electromagnets Engineered [1820s] – Henry
  8. 8. Social Tribal – Competitive Economic Social Tribal • Continuously evolving improvement or degradation, marked by rapid discontinuous disruptions • WAR / ego • Trade Barriers • Export Controls Competitive Pressure • Internal • Industry • Standards • Acquisition • Merger • Restructure 8
  9. 9. Modelling the Effect Features • Bass Forecaster Model • Gartner Hype Model • Hotelling Model • Game Theory • Choice Modelling • Path Dependence Factors
  10. 10. Discrete to Continuous Innovation Continuous constrained by Discrete Innovation 10 Photo: JRonaldLee:flickr:cc attrib.
  11. 11. A typical long lifecycle system 11 1932 2032 CPU Power Card File IO Modules
  12. 12. Historical Installed Base Path Dependence Fujitsu Notebook Example Model Component ANCIENT PRODUCT RECENT PRODUCT Comment NEW Chassis Not Exchangeable Replaces Old Chassis No Longer Available - From Jan 2014 Expand with New Chassis NEW PS Not Compatible Replaces NEW I/O Not Compatible Replaces NEW CPU Derived from New Replaces Specialization Kits NEW Tools Compatible Compatible NEW tool can configure ANCIENT/OLD/NEW systems and mixed Architecture 12 Minimize perceived cost to switch path
  13. 13. My 5 principles of Long Term Support 13 1. Retain and extend any configuration language [20 years+] 2. Update Config Tools frequently 3. Add New and never delete Old Hardware models 4. Make new Modules fit Older Module Racks to extend installation life. 5. Provide an Expandable inclusive architecture supporting co-existent common family designs.
  14. 14. Measuring Competitive Pressure • Restricted Entry as an increase:- – degree of product substitutability – number of competitors. • Free entry as an increase:- – degree of product substitutability – size of the market – in the ease of entry (decrease in the entry cost) 14 Innovation and competitive pressure Xavier Vives IESE Business School and UPF November 26, 2007
  15. 15. Continuous and Discrete Innovation • “In particular, our model predicts that, in contrast to previous theoretical findings, an increase in competitive pressure measured by product substitutability may decrease firms‟ incentives to conduct continuous improvement, and that an increase in the size of discrete innovation may decrease firms‟ incentives to conduct continuous improvement.” 100 years of continuous improvement in the 19” rack Modelled on the lifting dimensions of a human being Seems somewhat destined to continue Unless something else happens … 15 IZA DP No. 3132 : Discrete Innovation, Continuous Improvement, and Competitive Pressure Arghya Ghosh University of New South Wales Takao Kato Colgate University, Columbia Business School, University of Tokyo, Aarhus School of Business and IZA Hodaka Morita University of New South Wales
  16. 16. Massive Disruption and Innovation in Computing, Communications – 2000 to 2020 Computing per Watt • Currently 1Gflop/Watt is the best available • DARPA/SRI „PERFECT‟ project kicked off 2012 aim for 75Ggflop/Watt by around 2017 for HPEC High Performance Embedded Computers Space and Efficiency • Challenge to the 19” Rack Standard • Facebook‟s „Open Compute Project‟ Open Rack Spec Sept 18 2012 • Focus now on Power Efficiency for the Rack as a whole. Airflow - Cooling 16 SPACE, WEIGHT and POWER
  17. 17. 2012/13 – The Open Rack Standard 17 Open Source Designs for Data Centres [courtesy Michael Ocampo :]!/groups/opencompute/
  18. 18. An application of the Hotelling model 18 Equipment Automation IT Facebook Chatter 19” Ope n ?
  19. 19. 19 My Preferred System PRODUCT My Big 5 Global Delivery My Partner Integrators Owner of my Installed Base Other Integrator Other System PRODUCT Installed Base Competing Big 5 Vendor Vendor Key Accounts, Majors Mega Projects My Historical LTS Product Customer Choice and Switching to a different Equilibrium
  20. 20. Summary 20 Photo: Paul Stevenson: Flickr Stairs Lynn Chadwick [Chatsworth House]
  21. 21. Thankyou Your thoughts ? 21 @CJX07STER