Russia Consumer Sentiment Hits New Low Amid Ukraine Crisis

1. Russia Consumer Sentiment Hits New Low Amid
Ukraine Crisis
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator Falls to 88.5 in April
Insight and data for better decisions
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low
in April as expected household finances, short-term
business conditions and the spending climate were
all hit from the fallout in Ukraine.
The Consumer Indicator stood at 88.5 in April, having
declined sharply to 89.1 in March. This was the third
consecutive monthly fall and left confidence almost
11% down since the start of the year as concerns
over Russia’s actions in Ukraine have mounted.
Against a backdrop of stagnant economic growth and
political concerns, the majority of respondents
expected to see a worsening in business conditions
in a year’s time. The survey also revealed a
deterioration in the labour market, as the Employment
Outlook Indicator fell in April, following a record low
level in the first quarter.
Consumers were highly dissatisfied with the current
level of prices and their expectations for inflation rose
sharply. Many respondents found their finances just
enough for regular day-to-day expenditure but didn’t
have enough to purchase big ticket items.
Commenting on the latest survey, Philip Uglow, Chief
Economist of MNI Indicators said, “With the economy
flirting with recession it’s not surprising to see
sentiment among consumers falling once again to a
new low. The situation in Ukraine only makes matters
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88
92
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Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
worse and for the time being it’s difficult to see how
Russia can turn the economy around.”
“With the central bank forced to tighten monetary
policy further to deal with increased inflationary
pressures and protect the rouble amid large capital
outflows, economic growth will be squeezed further
this year,” he added.

2. MNI Indicators - May 9, 2014 2
Overview
Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 94.1 89.1 88.5 - series low 90.6 -0.6 -0.6%
Current Indicator 98.6 89.4 90.2 Feb-14 - 92.7 0.8 0.9%
Expectations Indicator 91.2 88.8 87.4 - series low 89.1 -1.4 -1.6%
Personal Finance: Current 87.3 79.5 83.7 Feb-14 - 83.5 4.2 5.3%
Personal Finance: Expected 96.3 96.3 93.4 - series low 95.3 -2.9 -3.0%
Business Condition: 1 Year 87.8 79.4 77.8 - series low 81.7 -1.6 -2.1%
Business Condition: 5 Years 89.4 90.7 91.1 Jan-14 - 90.4 0.4 0.4%
Durable Buying Conditions 109.9 99.3 96.8 - Nov-13 102.0 -2.5 -2.6%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 97.5 99.2 95.7 - Dec-13 97.5 -3.5 -3.4%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 111.4 110.0 107.2 - Dec-13 109.5 -2.8 -2.6%
Car Purchase Indicator 88.3 85.1 82.2 - Dec-13 85.2 -2.9 -3.4%
Employment Outlook Indicator 86.5 92.9 90.9 - Feb-14 90.1 -2.0 -2.2%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 140.9 139.2 144.2 series high - 141.4 5.0 3.6%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 74.4 76.3 67.5 - series low 72.7 -8.8 -11.6%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 122.6 119.2 122.3 Feb-14 - 121.4 3.1 2.5%
Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group
Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.