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The tree health landscape in 
(mainly) Scotland 
Hugh Clayden 
Forestry Commission Scotland 
15 October 2014
 What are we up against? 
 What can we do about it? 
 Keeping things in perspective
Phytophthoras 
Insects 
Fungi 
Complexes 
Bacteria
USA, CA 
Asia 
AU, NZ
50 years** 
100 years 
25 years
Average 
Rainfall 
+27% 
1961 
- 
2011 
Average 
temperature 
+1.0 
- 
+1.6 
∘C 
∘C 
? 
? 
?
Dothistroma needle blight 
Distribution on national forest estate 
86 (out of 129) Pinus species 
known to be susceptible
Phytophthora ramorum
Phytophthora ramorum 
Lag 
phase 
Exponential Decline
Phytophthora ramorum 
1st finding (on larch) in 
November 2010 
EU2 lineage 
(2011) 
75%+ 
larch still 
healthy
Chalara dieback of ash
Chalara 
Mid -1990s
Chalara 
2012
Chalara 
Sheltered area 
Buffer area
Phytophthora austrocedrae
Phytophthora lateralis 
Recently confirmed 
on Western red cedar 
(Thuja plicata)
714 pests in the UK Plant Health 
Risk Register 
(October 2014)
44% 
13% 
6% 
1% 
1% 
2% 
1% 
2% 
1% 
8% 
11% 
1% 
1% 
1% 
2% 
0% 
1% 
4% 
Sitka spruce 
Scots pine 
Corsican pine 
Norway spruce 
Larches 
Douglas fir 
Lodgepole pine 
Other conifers 
Oak 
Beech 
Sycamore 
Ash 
Birch 
Sweet Chestnut 
Hazel 
Hawthorn 
Alder 
Willow 
Other broadleaves 
Scotland 
Stocked area by principal tree 
species at March 2012 
broadleaves 
other conifers 
Sitka 
spruce
44% 
13% 
6% 
1% 
1% 
AOD, OPM, Chalara, SCB, 
ALB, CLB, P. cinnamomi, 
P. pseudosyringae 
Pseudomonas spp, DED 
2% 
1% 
2% 
1% 
8% 
11% 
1% 
1% 
1% 
2% 
0% 
1% 
4% 
Sitka spruce 
Scots pine 
Corsican pine 
Norway spruce 
Larches 
Douglas fir 
Lodgepole pine 
Other conifers 
Oak 
Beech 
Sycamore 
Ash 
Birch 
Sweet Chestnut 
Hazel 
Hawthorn 
Alder 
Willow 
Other broadleaves 
Scotland 
Stocked area by principal tree 
species at March 2012 
Dothistroma 
Ramorum 
D. micans 
P. lateralis 
P. austrocedrae 
Pine tree lappet 
Pine beauty 
Fusarium 
Elatobium 
Lower D. micans 
risk 
(?) 
Ips ?? 
typographus 
Spruce budworm 
Phytophthoras 
High impact 
Hybrids?
 What are we up against? 
 What can we do about it? 
 Keeping things in perspective
Species choice Silvicultural 
systems 
Length of 
rotation 
Spectrum of approaches
Resilience-building measures 
Select the most suitable species and genotypes 
Reduce other pressures on forests 
Maintain or add diversity in structure and species
Living with Environmental Change 
(LWEC): Tree health and Plant 
Biosecurity Initiative 
• (£9.2M) 2014 -2017 
• BBSRC, ESRC, NERC, Defra, FC, 
Scottish Government 
asymmetric ion mobility spectrometry 
vegetative compatibility of fungi 
botanicals and biocontrol with 
entomopathogenic fungi (“lure and kill”) 
genomics 
protein fusion technology 
Environment 
Social 
science 
Pest Host
• Review of the EU Plant Health Regime 
• Expert Taskforce on Tree Health and Plant Biosecurity 
• Sir Mark Walport Review 
(Animal & plant health in the UK – assessment of future national capacity) 
• UK Chief Plant Health Officer 
• UK Plant Health Risk Register 
• Scottish Tree Health Advisory Group 
• Potential ‘Centre for Expertise in Plant Health’ (Scotland)
 What are we up against? 
 What can we do about it? 
 Keeping things in perspective
Irish potato famine 1845 
Good design 
+ 
Good silviculture 
+ 
Good science 
+ 
Annual crop yields (globally) reduced by 
20-40% due to pests and diseases 
(source IPCC)
53% 
broadleaves 
13% 
6% 
2% 
4% 
0% 
7% 
2% 
2% 
2% 
2% 
1% 
4% 
1% 
0% 
1% 
0% 
Sitka spruce 
Scots pine 
Corsican pine 
Norway spruce 
Larches 
Douglas fir 
Lodgepole pine 
Other conifers 
Oak 
Beech 
Sycamore 
Ash 
Birch 
Sweet Chestnut 
Hazel 
Hawthorn 
Alder 
Willow 
Other broadleaves 
Scotland 
Standing volume by principal 
tree species at March 2012 
Sitka 
spruce 
other conifers 
Sitka 
spruce
53% 
13% 
6% 
2% 
4% 
0% 
7% 
2% 
2% 
2% 
2% 
1% 
4% 
1% 
0% 
1% 
0% 
Sitka spruce 
Scots pine 
Corsican pine 
Norway spruce 
Larches 
Douglas fir 
Lodgepole pine 
Other conifers 
Oak 
Beech 
Sycamore 
Ash 
Birch 
Sweet Chestnut 
Hazel 
Hawthorn 
Alder 
Willow 
Other broadleaves 
Scotland 
Standing volume by principal 
tree species at March 2012 
AOD, OPM, Chalara, SCB, 
ALB, CLB, P. cinnamomi, 
P. pseudosyringae 
Pseudomonas spp, DED 
Dothistroma 
Ramorum 
D. micans 
P. lateralis 
P. austrocedrae 
Pine tree lappet 
Pine beauty 
Fusarium 
Elatobium 
D. micans 
Ips typographus 
Spruce budworm 
Phytophthoras 
Hybrids? 
Lower risk (?) 
High impact 
?? 
(62% of conifer 
volume) 
Who owns 
the risk?

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Hugh Clayden, head of tree health

  • 1. The tree health landscape in (mainly) Scotland Hugh Clayden Forestry Commission Scotland 15 October 2014
  • 2.  What are we up against?  What can we do about it?  Keeping things in perspective
  • 3. Phytophthoras Insects Fungi Complexes Bacteria
  • 4. USA, CA Asia AU, NZ
  • 5. 50 years** 100 years 25 years
  • 6. Average Rainfall +27% 1961 - 2011 Average temperature +1.0 - +1.6 ∘C ∘C ? ? ?
  • 7. Dothistroma needle blight Distribution on national forest estate 86 (out of 129) Pinus species known to be susceptible
  • 9. Phytophthora ramorum Lag phase Exponential Decline
  • 10. Phytophthora ramorum 1st finding (on larch) in November 2010 EU2 lineage (2011) 75%+ larch still healthy
  • 14. Chalara Sheltered area Buffer area
  • 16. Phytophthora lateralis Recently confirmed on Western red cedar (Thuja plicata)
  • 17.
  • 18. 714 pests in the UK Plant Health Risk Register (October 2014)
  • 19. 44% 13% 6% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 8% 11% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 4% Sitka spruce Scots pine Corsican pine Norway spruce Larches Douglas fir Lodgepole pine Other conifers Oak Beech Sycamore Ash Birch Sweet Chestnut Hazel Hawthorn Alder Willow Other broadleaves Scotland Stocked area by principal tree species at March 2012 broadleaves other conifers Sitka spruce
  • 20. 44% 13% 6% 1% 1% AOD, OPM, Chalara, SCB, ALB, CLB, P. cinnamomi, P. pseudosyringae Pseudomonas spp, DED 2% 1% 2% 1% 8% 11% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 4% Sitka spruce Scots pine Corsican pine Norway spruce Larches Douglas fir Lodgepole pine Other conifers Oak Beech Sycamore Ash Birch Sweet Chestnut Hazel Hawthorn Alder Willow Other broadleaves Scotland Stocked area by principal tree species at March 2012 Dothistroma Ramorum D. micans P. lateralis P. austrocedrae Pine tree lappet Pine beauty Fusarium Elatobium Lower D. micans risk (?) Ips ?? typographus Spruce budworm Phytophthoras High impact Hybrids?
  • 21.  What are we up against?  What can we do about it?  Keeping things in perspective
  • 22.
  • 23. Species choice Silvicultural systems Length of rotation Spectrum of approaches
  • 24. Resilience-building measures Select the most suitable species and genotypes Reduce other pressures on forests Maintain or add diversity in structure and species
  • 25.
  • 26. Living with Environmental Change (LWEC): Tree health and Plant Biosecurity Initiative • (£9.2M) 2014 -2017 • BBSRC, ESRC, NERC, Defra, FC, Scottish Government asymmetric ion mobility spectrometry vegetative compatibility of fungi botanicals and biocontrol with entomopathogenic fungi (“lure and kill”) genomics protein fusion technology Environment Social science Pest Host
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. • Review of the EU Plant Health Regime • Expert Taskforce on Tree Health and Plant Biosecurity • Sir Mark Walport Review (Animal & plant health in the UK – assessment of future national capacity) • UK Chief Plant Health Officer • UK Plant Health Risk Register • Scottish Tree Health Advisory Group • Potential ‘Centre for Expertise in Plant Health’ (Scotland)
  • 31.  What are we up against?  What can we do about it?  Keeping things in perspective
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. Irish potato famine 1845 Good design + Good silviculture + Good science + Annual crop yields (globally) reduced by 20-40% due to pests and diseases (source IPCC)
  • 36.
  • 37. 53% broadleaves 13% 6% 2% 4% 0% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 1% 0% 1% 0% Sitka spruce Scots pine Corsican pine Norway spruce Larches Douglas fir Lodgepole pine Other conifers Oak Beech Sycamore Ash Birch Sweet Chestnut Hazel Hawthorn Alder Willow Other broadleaves Scotland Standing volume by principal tree species at March 2012 Sitka spruce other conifers Sitka spruce
  • 38. 53% 13% 6% 2% 4% 0% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 1% 0% 1% 0% Sitka spruce Scots pine Corsican pine Norway spruce Larches Douglas fir Lodgepole pine Other conifers Oak Beech Sycamore Ash Birch Sweet Chestnut Hazel Hawthorn Alder Willow Other broadleaves Scotland Standing volume by principal tree species at March 2012 AOD, OPM, Chalara, SCB, ALB, CLB, P. cinnamomi, P. pseudosyringae Pseudomonas spp, DED Dothistroma Ramorum D. micans P. lateralis P. austrocedrae Pine tree lappet Pine beauty Fusarium Elatobium D. micans Ips typographus Spruce budworm Phytophthoras Hybrids? Lower risk (?) High impact ?? (62% of conifer volume) Who owns the risk?