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GT - Automotive Messenger UK - October 2012

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Welcome to the latest Automotive Messenger, which provides insight and analysis of industry issues and trends in the UK and globally.

Welcome to the latest Automotive Messenger, which provides insight and analysis of industry issues and trends in the UK and globally.

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  • 1. Automotive MessengerOctober 2012It’s impossible to ignore the crisis in the Euro Zone and the deterioration of economicconditions across the EU, so in this issue we examine how Europe is affecting theUK’s automotive retail industry.This comes at a time when, paradoxically, hit heavily by European operations; it stronger. Inchcape, for example, hasthe performance of the UK automotive is now forecasting a $1bn full-year loss been establishing stronger ties with keysector is on an upward curve. Six in Europe. The more Europe-centric manufacturers, particularly those in theconsecutive months of growth to the PSA saw first-half automotive operating profitable premium segments.end of August saw registrations up 3.3% income fall EUR 1.7bn, (406%), while It is this kind of approach which willfor the first eight months of the year. Renault’s net income for the period fell by protect dealer groups from the macro-Encouragingly, this was not a result EUR 467m, 37.3%. Even VW reported economic forces of Europe and its ailingof fleet business, which was static, but slowing earnings growth, attributing car industry, and the effect this willprivate sales, which increased by almost it to technology investment costs and have on the UK. The car manufacturers11%. the sovereign debt crisis, whilst BMW will increasingly stand or fall on the However, the fact that the UK is reported the first drop in quarterly profit desirability of their products; dealers willnow back in recession is not the only for three years. succeed or fail on the basis of the brandsreason to be extremely cautious. We all Results in the UK’s retail sector have they represent and the quality of theirunderstand that the scale of Europe’s been somewhat better though. Inchcape people. To attract and keep customerseconomic problems could infect the UK, has announced first-half sales of £3.1bn, requires both.but if, as is now being mooted, Germany up 6.1%, and operating profit up 10.1% I hope you enjoy this issue of AM andalso goes into recession, confidence to £138.4m. The company does have find it useful. And, as ever, I would love tocould plummet to new levels. Combined significant operations overseas but others hear your views.with the automotive industry’s perennial have also experienced success. Vertuproblem of overcapacity this would have a Motors increased revenue by 11.6% indramatic effect on car sales, and the weak the quarter to June, with 5.1% growth forEuro would mean an increase in exports vehicle sales, and 4.7% in profitability.to the UK, in turn creating over-supply In this issue of AM we also take lookand reduced margins for the UK. at how the top 100 dealer groups fared The early signs for the remainder in 2011. There was a significant increaseof the year bring this scenario a step in transactions and some notably good Daniel Taylorcloser: German registrations fell 4.7% in results for the biggest groups in terms Head of Automotive AdvisoryAugust, year-on-year, against a backdrop of return on sales, partly as a result of T +44 (0)118 983 9601of widening belief that its carmakers efficiencies necessitated by the economic M +44 (0)7976 225 265 www.grant-thornton.co.uk/automotivehave been engaged in large-scale self- downturn. In addition the practice byregistration to boost the figures. regional groups of strategic focus – Contents And the latest financial results make typically on local markets or specificfor a chastening read. Ford’s second-half brands – has begun to be adopted by the 02 European Market Reviewpre-tax operating profit fell by $1.6bn, larger groups, and the correlation between 05 Dealer Trends42%, and net income by $ 2.5bn, 51%, focus and performance is becoming 07 Performance Commentary
  • 2. Automotive MessengerEuropean market reviewUK performance2012 performance in the UK has held up well against a backdrop in Europe which iscoming under increasing pressure. Registrations for the eight month period were upby 3.3%, with private demand driving much of the growth, in contrast to last year,suggesting that a more sustainable recovery is occurring. In August registrationswere up 0.1%, the sixth consecutive monthly increase, leading on from July figures,when SMMT revised upwards its full year forecast to 1.97 million (compared to 1.94million in 2011).The figures look good, but as ever both in relation to vehicle sales and the Registrations in the region duringneed to be interpreted with a degree aftersales business. the first eight months of the year wereof caution given the extent to which On the back of this pressure, down 6.6% on 2011, with demand inpre-registrations can distort the business failures in the dealer space have France (-13.4%), Italy (-19.9%) andpicture. There is also some growing increased in the last eight months. Some Spain (-8.5%) underlining the Euroevidence of supply push into the UK of this undoubtedly reflects a ‘catch-up’ Zone problems; Greece and Portugalaway from the troubled Eurozone from the years 2009 to 2011 which saw were both down by over 40%. Demandmarkets, and to take advantage of the comparatively few failures on the back in Germany fell 0.6% and the UKmore favourable sterling exchange rate. of the many industry support measures increased marginally by 3.3%, butAdditionally, there remains a significant and manufacturer actions. Additionally, no-one is safe: to shift vehicle stockrange of performance across brands, the current pressures are beginning to many manufactures have engaged inwith premium brands continuing to tell on those dealers at the bottom end a damaging price war, with financialsignificantly out-perform volume, of the performance spectrum. Given the losses as a result. Only a handful ofalthough even these now are finding the problems in Europe which we discuss manufacturers have maintained growthgoing a little tougher. All these factors further below, it is likely that these in sales (interestingly predominated byhave an impact on the performance pressures will increase in the remainder the ‘value’ brands Skoda, Hyundai andof dealers which does not necessarily of 2012. The scale of the fall out will Kia).translate directly from the positive unit depend in part on the an effort byheadline figures. manufacturers to manage supply and Capacity and demand As reported elsewhere in this issue, avoid a repeat of 2008. The core problem is not new, butat a UK dealer level, profitability has come to the fore with renewedacross the board was down in European impact vengeance: there is too much capacity2011, reflecting the tougher market The gloom in European may not always and the imbalance of production andconditions compared to 2010 - this appear to have a direct bearing on the demand is bleeding profit (recent datatrend continued into 2012, impacted by UK, especially when performance shows a substantial gap re-emergingthe wider macro-economic pressures, across the individual markets varies so between production and sales). It isand despite the sustained vehicle unit widely, but our retail automotive sector estimated that net pricing decreasedsales performance. This is indicative is unavoidably linked to Europe’s car by 1% in 2011 and is likely to worsenof the margin pressure that persists, industry. this year. With forecasters expecting2
  • 3. Automotive Messengerregistrations to decline by as much as reports of unprecedented discounts and could be key in restoring the brand’s8% over the whole year, the problems incentives being offered by Opel, Fiat, UK fortunes. The state of the market iswill intensify. Renault, Seat and Peugeot, and in June prompting even Hyundai-Kia, which is The overcapacity is simply even VW engaged in price cuts as the growing in almost all markets, to reviseillustrated. In 2007 around 16 million region saw a ninth straight monthly its strategy: short-term it is reducingcars were sold; this year is likely to sales fall. its efforts in low-potential marketstotal little more than 12 million. With Demand for the mainstream brands to focus on Germany, the UK andstrong political resistance to job losses, has been doubly squeezed – from above Scandinavia.few plants have closed, and at the by the growing presence of premiumsame time there is growing capacity brands entering mainstream segments Supply chain implicationsin Eastern Europe. Broadly speaking, and from below by the increasing The supply chain has remainedcar plants need to have a utilisation quality and aggression of the value remarkably resilient despite therate of over 80% to be profitable, but brands. Hyundai-Kia’s phenomenal European sales pressures. In part thisanalysts believe that in 2012 and 2013 growth has continued – In Europe, is due to the work done in the crisisthe European average is likely to be Hyundai is up 10.6% and Kia up years to re-shape their business toclose to 70%, in contrast with the US at 23.4%, to 291,000 and 223,000 units match lower production levels, and toover 90%. respectively, for the eight months to introduce a level of flexibility to better There appears now to be a more August. manage demand fluctuations goingresolute drive to close plants and take Mainstream carmakers are reacting, forward. These strategies have in largeout capacity (steps that have been but recovery will require radical part been effective. However, the fallingfirmly resisted in Europe until now). solutions in some cases. European volumes and manufacturerAnticipated plant closures at the time GM Europe has formed an alliance production stoppages will undoubtedlyof writing include Bochum, Germany with fellow struggler PSA and replaced have an impact.(GM) and Aulnay, France (PSA). its CEO, CFO and head of R&D. Uncertainty is now viewed as theAdditionally there remains a question There is even talk of the company new certainty in Europe and the supplymark hanging over Genk, Belgium ultimately leaving the mature European chain is going to be placed under(Ford) and Fiat’s Italian factories are market to focus on China and growth demanding requirements by the OEMsreported to be running at less than markets; it already took advantage as they formulate their strategies for the40% capacity, well below the 80% of demand in Russia in the first half future. The supply chain will need toprofitability benchmark. of the year to fill the gap in Western develop their own strategies that align Europe, but cutbacks in production with the OEMs. These strategies will beBrand and country performance are predicted. PSA is talking about a different across brands, with confirmedThe French car market is forecast to major push in Russia – indeed Russian plant closures noted above contrastingdrop by as much as 10% this year. For production shift across various with on-going expansion associatedRenault, with a 25% share, this will be manufacturers, including Volkswagen, with JLR and certain Japanese andtough. Italy’s volumes were predicted is topical. Renault is talking once again German OEMs.to fall by 18% (and are down 20%, of introducing upmarket models in the The multi brand supplier is thereforeyear to date) to below 1.5 million units, quest for higher margins (a questionable likely to see an environment requiringcompared with a market size of 2.5 strategy based on past experience), but geographical restructuring and, at themillion in 2007, and Fiat’s domestic one bright spot is the Dacia value brand same time, investment. The fundingshare is close to 30%. There are now which will reach the UK in January and demand around these events against a Automotive Messenger October 2012 3
  • 4. Automotive Messengerbackdrop of lower output will placesignificant financial pressure on the Concluding commentssupply chain. The situation in Europe may prove to be a highly influential factor in The restructuring and investment how the balance of the year plays out - supply push and pre-registrationrequirements coupled with the capital pressures could increase, exacerbated by any further widening of theintensive nature of the industry is a Sterling/Euro exchange rate. Ironically, it may be Europe’s powerhouse,major concern. The industry is under Germany, which now stifles UK growth: the Euro Zone crisis isintensifying legislation and consumer- threatening Germany’s export sector, which has provided the foundationdriven demands for technology which of its strength since the introduction of the Euro. If Germany does go intois resulting in the supply tiers being recession, it will be very damaging to the rest of Europe’s confidence andmore frequently requested to fund business sentiment.research and development and tooling The recovery in Europe will be a long time coming - sales are at theircosts ahead of production. Availability lowest levels for 17 years, and recent analyst reports suggest further fallsof funding is therefore going to be a next year, with sales not returning to pre-crisis levels until 2020. In themajor issue for both the OEMs and UK, forecasts indicate that car market will not better 2008 levels untilthe supply tiers, particularly given the 2015, and even then be around 200,000 units fewer than pre-crisis levels.historic funding instruments available So any recovery will be long, but also, bearing in mind European factors,to the sector. fragile. There is therefore a resultant Restructuring of dealer networks is continuing in the UK to reflectexpectation that further supply chain market conditions and to position brands for sustainability. Renaultconsolidation will occur to meet the were the first to really take steps to right-size their network, with plansneeds of OEM strategies as they unfold. to cut the network from 200 to 140 by next year firmly in train. NoIn many respects this is essential in other manufacturer has announced such aggressive structural changes,Europe to avoid the movement of but in time this will be unavoidable for some. Recent data reviewed byovercapacity down from the OEMs Grant Thornton suggests that average registrations per franchised outletto Tier 1 and below and ensure a has fallen from 460 in 2002, to around 420 in 2011. But that averagecompetitive future environment. hides a huge range in movements for certain manufacturers, with some experiencing a 50% drop in registrations per outlet, a clearly unsustainable position. The shape of the industry will continue to change across the value chain - all stakeholders need to adapt to remain viable and ensure survival. In all likelihood there will be a gradual transition to a new steady state - within that transition however will be pockets of turmoil for those that cannot adapt rapidly enough.4
  • 5. Automotive MessengerDealer trends, furtherconsolidation and peopleLast year was clearly a very difficult one. As we now know, the UK economyreturned officially to recession, business and consumer sentiment continued todecline, with total car registrations down by almost 90,000 units, and 4.4%. However,while the crisis in Europe has deepened, 2012 has been much brighter for the UKautomotive sector. Total registrations during the first eight months of the year wereup, and most significantly private sales were ahead of the overall market, postinggrowth of 10.6%. This will come as some relief to retailers, because profitabilityin 2011 was a considerable challenge. While the top 10 in the annual AutomotiveManagement 100 listing of automotive retail groups, compiled and published inassociation with Grant Thornton, still achieved some striking return on sales results,only the best nine exceeded 2%. Contrast that with 2010, when every one of the top20 bettered that mark.Emerging trends is heavily represented among those TransactionsOne of the problems for analysts is that towards the top of the league table, so A significant difference from 2010 isthese figures are not enlightened by this approach does seem able to counter the number of transactions. Last timeclear and unambiguous trends, such as even long-term negative economic there was just one major change – thea particular basket of brands providing conditions. The best results since the acquisition of Wayside Group bya competitive advantage, or differences downturn have been delivered most Jardine – but this time there has beenin regional economies accounting frequently by groups which have put quite a number. Ridgeway leaps intofor sales performance. For example, that formula at the heart of operations, the top 20 after the acquisition of mostalthough certain prestige brands are and this has been especially noticeable of Woods Group’s BMW dealerships.predictably represented among the both during 2008 in the teeth of the Group 1 also enters the top 20 after themost profitable, so are volume brands, recession, and again in 2011 when acquisition of Hodgson Automotive.paradoxically including those currently sentiment was hitting new lows. Already in the top 20, Benfield movesamong the most challenged in volume Many larger groups have up five places after buying Colebrookterms. Similarly, a number of groups been following a similar strategy, and Burgess.focused on the south of the country rationalising by brand and geography, Vertu continues to make progressare featured, but so are groups from and four of the top 10 are among the with a number of smaller acquisitions,the North, Wales, East Anglia and even best 20 performers for RoS. Sytner and pushing turnover beyond £1bn.some with national coverage. Arnold Clark are rarely out of the table, Marshalls has also been on the However, it is clear that there is a but are joined this time by Inchcape acquisition trail, adding a VW franchisestrong correlation between successful and Lookers, both of which have for the first time. Further down theperformance and focus. As has been notably been working to develop core table, H R Owen continues to rebuildthe case for many years, the ‘local hero’ manufacturer partners. with the purchase of long-time Bentleyformula of brand and geographic focus dealer, Broughtons. Automotive Messenger October 2012 5
  • 6. Automotive MessengerStructural changes in the AM100 significance. Much of the improvement business – Sytner’s new flagship centralWith this level of activity one might in results recently by some larger London digital showroom aside - andassume that the centre of gravity of groups, and often the foundation so the basic business model continues.the AM100 would have changed, of the continued good results of This may be understandable; it takesdemonstrating - possibly for the first the ‘local heroes’, is the quality much resolve, risk and disruptiontime - the consolidation that so many and personalisation of process. The to change the physical parameters.commentators talk about. Indeed, foundation of good process is the But what about the people factor?despite the 90,000 fall in registrations knowledge, understanding and values of Those groups which have spent timebetween 2010 and 2011, the combined the individuals who do the job, and the understanding how customer value isturnover of the AM100 has increased distinguishing factor is the way process delivered, and have empowered thosemarginally, from £37.4bn to £38bn. is taught and managed. A second part who design and teach process, appear However, the underlying statistics of the equation is the matter of value. to be reaping benefits. An interesting,have hardly changed at all. The Delivering value keeps customers, and statistic, not often publicised, is that thethreshold for entry remains at about it is people who deliver that value. more consistently profitable businesses,£100m. The turnover of the top 10 Fewer people can equal less value and, not just in motor retailing, have moregroups actually accounts for a smaller in turn, lower customer retention. people per unit of turnover than the lesspercentage of the total than last time – The backdrop to these statements, successful.46% against 47%. The turnover of the and the movement in total numbers, islargest 25 groups has changed but by the estimated level of staff retention.only a single percentage point – from Better-performing groups seem to Concluding comments65.6% last year to 65.5% this year. have good levels of retention; evidence So the good groups have been able The number of franchised outlets otherwise suggests that turnover of to ride out the more challengingcontrolled by the AM100 has increased sales staff can often be as high as 50%. 2011. The link to staff is, in reality,– from 2495 to 2511. If groups were Turnover amongst the service advisor common sense, but deliverystriving to retain or build more group within aftersales is almost as is much more. So, despite theeconomically viable units - closing high. By contrast, manager turnover positive first eight months of 2012,smaller marginal sites, focusing on appears low, often just 10%. with the country now enteringincreasing throughput, building market The economics of motor retailing a second period of recession,areas - logically the direction of travel are a continuing challenge. Many say delivery will be key to success.would be the other way. this is down to people performance. North, south, east or west, premiumThe value of people in the business franchise or volume, the profits areThe more challenging times also do not generally there when the people areseem to have affected staff numbers. At ‘good’. Naturally, those good peoplejust over 94,000 the total has increased do follow a process but enjoy degreesby about 1%. In 2008 and 2009 survival of flexibility where it really makes adrove a substantial reduction, from difference.nearly 99,000 to just over 92,000, but it It would seem that we find itwould seem that groups are continuing impossible to change the infrastructureto manage with reduced numbers. – the number and size of outlets, the This latter area is one of considerable underlying systems and ways of doing6
  • 7. Automotive MessengerPerformance commentaryTo August 2012UK New Car Registrations Aug 2012 YTD Aug 2011 YTD Regs. Δ FY2011 FY2010 Regs. Δ FY2009 Regs. Δ FY2008 Regs. Δ FY2007 Regs. Δ Brand Units Share % Units Share % 2012/11 Units Share % Units Share % 2011/10 Units Share % 2010/09 Units Share % 2009/08 Units Share % 2008/07Ford 176,999 14.0% 171,278 14.0% 3.3% 265,894 13.7% 280,364 13.8% (5.2)% 316,369 15.9% (11.4)% 322,514 15.1% (1.9)% 348,982 14.5% (7.6)%Vauxhall 140,809 11.2% 150,641 12.3% (6.5)% 234,710 12.1% 247,265 12.2% (5.1)% 237,840 11.9% 4.0% 298,912 14.0% (20.4)% 331,321 13.8% (9.8)%Volkswagen 115,296 9.1% 114,209 9.4% 1.0% 179,290 9.2% 174,655 8.6% 2.7% 161,137 8.1% 8.4% 179,189 8.4% (10.1)% 197,020 8.2% (9.1)%Audi 79,107 6.3% 73,736 6.0% 7.3% 113,797 5.9% 99,828 4.9% 14.0% 91,172 4.6% 9.5% 100,845 4.7% (9.6)% 100,864 4.2% (0.0)%BMW 75,265 6.0% 72,543 5.9% 3.8% 116,642 6.0% 109,418 5.4% 6.6% 98,683 4.9% 10.9% 113,132 5.3% (12.8)% 121,575 5.1% (6.9)%Nissan 65,120 5.2% 58,611 4.8% 11.1% 96,269 5.0% 89,681 4.4% 7.3% 77,924 3.9% 15.1% 66,336 3.1% 17.5% 66,426 2.8% (0.1)%Peugeot 63,045 5.0% 60,998 5.0% 3.4% 94,989 4.9% 109,324 5.4% (13.1)% 102,574 5.1% 6.6% 118,701 5.6% (13.6)% 146,094 6.1% (18.8)%Mercedes-Benz 56,783 4.5% 49,789 4.1% 14.0% 81,873 4.2% 74,977 3.7% 9.2% 72,281 3.6% 3.7% 74,883 3.5% (3.5)% 82,321 3.4% (9.0)%Toyota 53,022 4.2% 45,099 3.7% 17.6% 73,589 3.8% 87,396 4.3% (15.8)% 102,612 5.1% (14.8)% 105,717 5.0% (2.9)% 118,493 4.9% (10.8)%Citroen 45,547 3.6% 43,429 3.6% 4.9% 68,464 3.5% 73,317 3.6% (6.6)% 72,450 3.6% 1.2% 81,237 3.8% (10.8)% 97,750 4.1% (16.9)%Hyundai 42,639 3.4% 37,529 3.1% 13.6% 62,900 3.2% 61,752 3.0% 1.9% 56,726 2.8% 8.9% 28,036 1.3% 102.3% 29,765 1.2% (5.8)%Renault 23,208 1.8% 42,096 3.4% (44.9)% 68,449 3.5% 95,608 4.7% (28.4)% 63,174 3.2% 51.3% 89,570 4.2% (29.5)% 126,816 5.3% (29.4)%Kia 41,291 3.3% 33,524 2.7% 23.2% 53,615 2.8% 56,114 2.8% (4.5)% 50,637 2.5% 10.8% 31,324 1.5% 61.7% 29,372 1.2% 6.6%Honda 32,542 2.6% 29,874 2.4% 8.9% 50,577 2.6% 63,652 3.1% (20.5)% 74,819 3.8% (14.9)% 83,805 3.9% (10.7)% 106,018 4.4% (21.0)%MINI 28,717 2.3% 28,457 2.3% 0.9% 50,138 2.6% 43,894 2.2% 14.2% 39,866 2.0% 10.1% 40,736 1.9% (2.1)% 47,661 2.0% (14.5)%Skoda 34,042 2.7% 29,347 2.4% 16.0% 45,061 2.3% 41,240 2.0% 9.3% 37,253 1.9% 10.7% 37,100 1.7% 0.4% 39,907 1.7% (7.0)%Fiat 30,752 2.4% 27,167 2.2% 13.2% 41,612 2.1% 53,093 2.6% (21.6)% 60,337 3.0% (12.0)% 55,325 2.6% 9.1% 59,409 2.5% (6.9)%Land Rover 30,102 2.4% 22,454 1.8% 34.1% 37,637 1.9% 37,272 1.8% 1.0% 29,185 1.5% 27.7% 32,567 1.5% (10.4)% 46,552 1.9% (30.0)%Mazda 17,761 1.4% 19,962 1.6% (11.0)% 31,219 1.6% 45,449 2.2% (31.3)% 47,934 2.4% (5.2)% 49,858 2.3% (3.9)% 50,947 2.1% (2.1)%SEAT 22,704 1.8% 22,250 1.8% 2.0% 36,089 1.9% 32,935 1.6% 9.6% 29,987 1.5% 9.8% 29,397 1.4% 2.0% 34,790 1.4% (15.5)%Volvo 19,925 1.6% 20,672 1.7% (3.6)% 32,657 1.7% 37,435 1.8% (12.8)% 34,857 1.7% 7.4% 33,358 1.6% 4.5% 30,058 1.3% 11.0%Jaguar 8,177 0.6% 8,042 0.7% 1.7% 13,787 0.7% 16,417 0.8% (16.0)% 18,234 0.9% (10.0)% 20,345 1.0% (10.4)% 18,712 0.8% 8.7%Other 58,144 4.6% 58,911 4.8% (1.3)% 105,782 5.4% 148,880 7.3% (28.9)% 166,931 8.4% (10.8)% 188,650 8.8% (11.5)% 226,656 9.4% (16.8)% Total 1,260,997 100.0% 1,220,618 3.3% 1,941,253 2,030,614 (4.4)% 1,994,761 1.8% 2,131,795 (6.4)% 2,404,007 (11.3)% Excl. scrappage 1,260,997 1,220,618 3.3% 1,941,253 1,921,907 1.0% 1,811,074 6.1% 2,131,795 (15.0)% 2,404,007 (11.3)%Source: SMMTUK Registrations 2012 • Ford’s Fiesta was the best-selling car to August, ahead of• New-car registrations in the UK rose for a sixth successive Vauxhall’s Corsa and Ford’s Focus month in August with a 0.1% rise, suggesting increasing • Recently announced September results have reinforced confidence this forward momentum, up 8.2% for the month and• Registrations over the first eight months of the year pushing up the year to date improvement to 4.4%. increased 3.3% to 1.261m units • The SMMT’s full-year forecast is for 1.97m units, which• Private demand recovered for the year to August, up would be marginally up from last year’s 1.94m 10.6% over 2011• Fleet volumes are static, while small business volumes are down 15.4%• Diesel cars increased their share from 50.3% to 51.0%• Ford led the market with a 14.0% share, followed by Vauxhall on 11.2%, as the former grew its volumes by 3.3% while the latter fell by 6.5%• Notable falls were Renault (-44.9%), Mitsubishi (-41.3%), Alfa Romeo (-35.0%), Mazda (-11.0%), and Subaru (-12.8)• Double-digit winners included Toyota (17.6%), Mercedes- Benz (14.0%), Land Rover (34.1%) and Nissan (11.1%)• Small-car and value brands continued to prosper, with Kia up 23.2%, Hyundai 13.6%, Skoda 16.0%, Suzuki 21.9% and Fiat 13.2% Automotive Messenger October 2012 7
  • 8. Automotive MessengerEU (EU27 + EFTA) sales by brand (passenger cars) Aug 2012 YTD Aug 2011 YTD Regs. Δ FY2011 FY2010 Regs. Δ FY2009 Regs. Δ FY2008 Regs. Δ FY2007 Regs. Δ Brand Units Share % Units Share % 2012/2011 Units Share % Units Share % 2011/2010 Units Share % 2009/10 Units Share % 2008/09 Units Share % 2007/08Volkswagen 1,109,901 12.9% 1,132,141 12.3% (2.0)% 1,684,150 12.4% 1,541,279 11.2% 9.3% 1,649,309 11.4% (6.6)% 1,572,132 10.7% 4.9% 1,632,353 10.2% (3.7)%Ford 644,997 7.5% 732,807 8.0% (12.0)% 1,077,759 7.9% 1,109,588 8.0% (2.9)% 1,297,001 9.0% (14.4)% 1,232,535 8.4% 5.2% 1,302,703 8.1% (5.4)%Opel/Vauxhall 573,793 6.7% 676,248 7.3% (15.2)% 989,261 7.3% 1,006,832 7.3% (1.7)% 1,064,305 7.3% (5.4)% 1,154,063 7.8% (7.8)% 1,343,885 8.4% (14.1)%Renault 565,147 6.6% 702,617 7.6% (19.6)% 1,044,920 7.7% 1,147,486 8.3% (8.9)% 1,097,647 7.6% 4.5% 1,102,813 7.5% (0.5)% 1,209,663 7.6% (8.8)%Peugeot 551,379 6.4% 644,673 7.0% (14.5)% 911,703 6.7% 1,005,916 7.3% (9.4)% 994,544 6.9% 1.1% 1,006,467 6.8% (1.2)% 1,106,652 6.9% (9.1)%Audi 483,841 5.6% 457,060 5.0% 5.9% 680,262 5.0% 623,536 4.5% 9.1% 612,783 4.2% 1.8% 663,305 4.5% (7.6)% 661,676 4.1% 0.2%Citroen 473,861 5.5% 538,626 5.9% (12.0)% 770,726 5.7% 838,147 6.1% (8.0)% 869,685 6.0% (3.6)% 856,522 5.8% 1.5% 943,300 5.9% (9.2)%BMW 416,591 4.8% 426,879 4.6% (2.4)% 641,737 4.7% 609,196 4.4% 5.3% 572,285 3.9% 6.4% 676,829 4.6% (15.4)% 705,659 4.4% (4.1)%Fiat 401,876 4.7% 483,535 5.3% (16.9)% 682,140 5.0% 825,376 6.0% (17.4)% 1,017,310 7.0% (18.9)% 958,991 6.5% 6.1% 978,450 6.1% (2.0)%Mercedes 389,452 4.5% 390,737 4.2% (0.3)% 591,750 4.4% 586,146 4.3% 1.0% 588,510 4.1% (0.4)% 685,566 4.7% (14.2)% 729,557 4.6% (6.0)%Toyota 349,215 4.1% 352,422 3.8% (0.9)% 527,206 3.9% 582,457 4.2% (9.5)% 710,374 4.9% (18.0)% 783,188 5.3% (9.3)% 945,492 5.9% (17.2)%Skoda 335,381 3.9% 330,820 3.6% 1.4% 494,760 3.6% 468,034 3.4% 5.7% 483,597 3.3% (3.2)% 462,178 3.1% 4.6% 482,355 3.0% (4.2)%Nissan 295,054 3.4% 306,035 3.3% (3.6)% 458,033 3.4% 402,654 2.9% 13.8% 368,373 2.5% 9.3% 336,922 2.3% 9.3% 311,794 1.9% 8.1%Hyundai 291,276 3.4% 263,366 2.9% 10.6% 398,129 2.9% 358,284 2.6% 11.1% 345,896 2.4% 3.6% 271,296 1.8% 27.5% 306,696 1.9% (11.5)%Kia 222,629 2.6% 180,381 2.0% 23.4% 293,960 2.2% 262,627 1.9% 11.9% 257,573 1.8% 2.0% 234,370 1.6% 9.9% 253,422 1.6% (7.5)%Seat 179,240 2.1% 211,595 2.3% (15.3)% 305,730 2.3% 301,931 2.2% 1.3% 316,856 2.2% (4.7)% 335,984 2.3% (5.7)% 386,565 2.4% (13.1)%Dacia 163,617 1.9% 165,734 1.8% (1.3)% 252,058 1.9% 262,777 1.9% (4.1)% 235,465 1.6% 11.6% 183,460 1.2% 28.3% 173,462 1.1% 5.8%Volvo 151,567 1.8% 169,611 1.8% (10.6)% 254,732 1.9% 230,307 1.7% 10.6% 206,050 1.4% 11.8% 223,239 1.5% (7.7)% 265,966 1.7% (16.1)%Suzuki 106,174 1.2% 119,417 1.3% (11.1)% 177,996 1.3% 195,458 1.4% (8.9)% 249,772 1.7% (21.7)% 249,269 1.7% 0.2% 286,708 1.8% (13.1)%Honda 92,216 1.1% 97,583 1.1% (5.5)% 149,684 1.1% 187,408 1.4% (20.1)% 244,751 1.7% (23.4)% 265,010 1.8% (7.6)% 311,743 1.9% (15.0)%Mazda 86,899 1.0% 96,713 1.1% (10.1)% 137,447 1.0% 182,684 1.3% (24.8)% 210,641 1.5% (13.3)% 244,111 1.7% (13.7)% 239,740 1.5% 1.8%Other 707,862 8.2% 723,499 7.9% (2.2)% 1,049,407 7.7% 1,057,575 7.7% (0.8)% 1,096,144 7.6% (3.5)% 1,239,984 8.4% (11.6)% 1,425,596 8.9% (13.0)% Total 8,591,968 9,202,499 (6.6)% 13,573,550 13,785,698 (1.5)% 14,488,871 (4.9)% 14,738,234 (1.7)% 16,003,437 (7.9)%Source: ACEAEU Registrations • VW sales actually fell by 2.0%, but combined VW Group• August saw the eleventh successive monthly drop in sales increased overall by 1.6% registrations in Europe, with a 6.6% decline in the first • Volume carmakers in general suffered by reduced demand eight months of 2012 in the mainstream segments; year-to-date, Renault group• Of the Big Five, only the UK was up by 3.3%; Germany fell by 16.1%, Fiat group by 16.6%, PSA Peugeot-Citroen fell slightly by 0.6%; Italy fell by 19.9%, Spain 8.5% and by 13.4%, GM by 11.7% and Ford Motor Company by France 13.4 12%• Volumes in Greece and Portugal were both down by • Jaguar-Land Rover grew by 37%, while Hyundai and Kia more than 40%, while significant markets in Belgium and posted increases of 10.6% and 23.4% respectively Sweden experienced falls of around 10% • With the possibility of recession in Germany and the focus• Central and Eastern Europe fared surprisingly well, with of economic uncertainty now shifting from Greece to the Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria major markets of Italy and Spain, forecasts for the full year all up vary but are as low as 12.0m, down from 12.8m in 2011• Germany still accounted for 24% of total volumes, so a and 14.8m in 2007 decline will be damaging to the region in volume terms as well as to confidence• VW remained comfortably the leading brand, with a 12.9% share, from Ford on 7.5%, Opel/Vauxhall on 6.7%, Renault on 6.6% and Peugeot on 6.4%EU (EU27 + EFTA) sales by country (passenger cars) Var (%) Var (%) Var (%) Var (%) Var (%) Aug 2012 YTD Aug 2011 YTD 2012/2011 FY2011 FY2010 2011/2010 FY2009 2010/2009 FY2008 2009/2008 FY2007 2008/2007Germany 2,108,716 2,121,047 (0.6)% 3,173,634 2,916,260 8.8% 3,807,175 (23.4)% 3,090,040 23.2% 3,148,163 (1.8)%France 1,293,973 1,493,745 (13.4)% 2,204,229 2,251,669 (2.1)% 2,268,671 (0.7)% 2,050,282 10.7% 2,064,543 (0.7)%United Kingdom 1,260,997 1,220,618 3.3% 1,941,253 2,030,846 (4.4)% 1,994,999 1.8% 2,131,794 (6.4)% 2,404,007 (11.3)%Italy 981,030 1,224,096 (19.9)% 1,748,143 1,960,282 (10.8)% 2,158,010 (9.2)% 2,160,131 (0.1)% 2,493,106 (13.4)%Spain 520,216 568,349 (8.5)% 808,059 982,015 (17.7)% 952,772 3.1% 1,161,176 (17.9)% 1,614,835 (28.1)%Belgium 353,073 399,119 (11.5)% 572,211 547,347 4.5% 476,563 14.9% 536,276 (11.1)% 524,795 2.2%Netherlands 396,101 409,500 (3.3)% 556,123 483,619 15.0% 387,699 24.7% 499,983 (22.5)% 505,538 (1.1)%Austria 239,796 242,784 (1.2)% 356,145 328,563 8.4% 319,403 2.9% 293,697 8.8% 298,182 (1.5)%Switzerland 224,360 206,259 8.8% 318,958 294,239 8.4% 264,771 11.1% 287,803 (8.0)% 284,688 1.1%Sweden 181,774 201,031 (9.6)% 304,984 289,684 5.3% 213,408 35.7% 253,982 (16.0)% 306,799 (17.2)%EU11* (Central/Eastern Europe) 517,400 510,304 1.4% 760,706 803,707 (5.4)% 858,831 (6.4)% 1,180,173 (27.2)% 1,209,793 (2.4)%Other 514,532 605,647 (15.0)% 829,105 897,467 (7.6)% 786,569 14.1% 1,092,897 (28.0)% 1,148,987 (4.9)% Europe (EU27* + EFTA) 8,591,968 9,202,499 (6.6)% 13,573,550 13,785,698 (1.5)% 14,488,871 (4.9)% 14,738,234 (1.7)% 16,003,436 (7.9)%Source: ACEA8
  • 9. Automotive MessengerUS sales by brand (passenger cars and light trucks) Aug 2012 YTD Aug 2011 YTD Regs. Δ FY2011 FY2010 Regs. Δ FY2008 Regs. Δ FY2008 Regs. Δ FY2007 Regs. Δ Brand Units Share % Units Share % 2012/2011 Units Share % Units Share % 2011/10 Units Share % 2010/09 Units Share % 2008/09 Units Share % 2007/08Ford Division 1,453,536 15.0% 1,366,780 16.1% 6.3% 2,057,210 15.1% 1,752,511 15.1% 21.6% 1,440,653 13.8% 21.6% 1,680,321 12.7% (14.3)% 2,087,048 12.9% (19.5)%Chevrolet 1,270,582 13.1% 1,206,322 14.3% 5.3% 1,775,802 13.5% 1,563,881 13.5% 16.8% 1,338,612 12.8% 16.8% 1,790,519 13.5% (25.2)% 2,250,352 13.9% (20.4)%Toyota Division 1,199,163 12.3% 918,651 10.9% 30.5% 1,396,837 12.8% 1,488,588 12.8% (0.5)% 1,496,211 14.3% (0.5)% 1,843,667 13.9% (18.8)% 2,161,467 13.4% (14.7)%Honda Division 847,840 8.7% 691,129 8.2% 22.7% 1,023,986 9.5% 1,096,874 9.5% 5.0% 1,045,061 10.0% 5.0% 1,284,106 9.7% (18.6)% 1,371,439 8.5% (6.4)%Nissan Division 697,426 7.2% 617,413 7.3% 13.0% 944,073 6.9% 805,159 6.9% 16.9% 689,014 6.6% 16.9% 838,361 6.3% (17.8)% 941,200 5.8% (10.9)%Hyundai Division 479,789 4.9% 440,863 5.2% 8.8% 645,691 4.6% 538,228 4.6% 23.7% 435,066 4.2% 23.7% 401,742 3.0% 8.3% 467,009 2.9% (14.0)%Kia 386,809 4.0% 331,795 3.9% 16.6% 485,492 3.1% 356,269 3.1% 18.7% 300,063 2.9% 18.7% 273,397 2.1% 9.8% 305,473 1.9% (10.5)%Dodge 344,556 3.5% 305,369 3.6% 12.8% 451,040 3.3% 383,675 3.3% (26.6)% 522,686 5.0% (26.6)% 784,113 5.9% (33.3)% 1,058,402 6.6% (25.9)%Jeep 325,945 3.4% 268,228 3.2% 21.5% 419,349 2.5% 291,138 2.5% 25.7% 231,701 2.2% 25.7% 333,901 2.5% (30.6)% 475,237 2.9% (29.7)%Volkswagen Division 286,750 3.0% 208,423 2.5% 37.6% 324,402 2.2% 256,830 2.2% 20.3% 213,453 2.0% 20.3% 223,127 1.7% (4.3)% 230,571 1.4% (3.2)%GMC 273,366 2.8% 261,740 3.1% 4.4% 397,973 2.9% 333,204 2.9% 31.7% 253,053 2.4% 31.7% 361,739 2.7% (30.0)% 484,932 3.0% (25.4)%Mazda 185,349 1.9% 165,794 2.0% 11.8% 250,426 2.0% 229,566 2.0% 10.5% 207,767 2.0% 10.5% 263,949 2.0% (21.3)% 295,713 1.8% (10.7)%Subaru 217,780 2.2% 174,616 2.1% 24.7% 266,989 2.3% 263,820 2.3% 21.8% 216,652 2.1% 21.8% 187,699 1.4% 15.4% 187,121 1.2% 0.3%Chrysler Division 216,616 2.2% 133,992 1.6% 61.7% 221,346 1.7% 197,446 1.7% 11.5% 177,015 1.7% 11.5% 335,108 2.5% (47.2)% 543,011 3.4% (38.3)%Ram 192,946 2.0% 163,401 1.9% 18.1% 257,610 na 212,952 na na na na na na na na na na naMercedes-Benz 182,077 1.9% 159,087 1.9% 14.5% 261,769 1.9% 225,026 1.9% 18.1% 190,514 1.8% 18.1% 225,005 1.7% (15.3)% 253,277 1.6% (11.2)%BMW Division 164,636 1.7% 155,929 1.8% 5.6% 247,907 1.9% 220,113 1.9% 12.0% 196,502 1.9% 12.0% 249,113 1.9% (21.1)% 293,795 1.8% (15.2)%Lexus 150,604 1.6% 120,652 1.4% 24.8% 198,552 2.0% 229,329 2.0% 6.2% 215,975 2.1% 6.2% 260,087 2.0% (17.0)% 329,177 2.0% (21.0)%Buick 122,589 1.3% 126,493 1.5% (3.1)% 177,633 1.3% 155,389 1.3% 51.9% 102,306 1.0% 51.9% 137,197 1.0% (25.4)% 185,791 1.2% (26.2)%Cadillac 90,933 0.9% 100,449 1.2% (9.5)% 152,389 1.3% 146,925 1.3% 34.7% 109,092 1.0% 34.7% 161,159 1.2% (32.3)% 214,726 1.3% (24.9)%Other 621,946 6.4% 548,140 6.5% 13.5% 822,409 7.3% 843,417 7.3% (19.8)% 1,051,181 10.1% (19.8)% 1,612,641 12.2% (34.8)% 2,018,172 12.5% (20.1)% Total 9,711,238 100.0% 8,465,266 14.7% 12,778,885 11,590,340 11.1% 10,432,577 11.1% 13,246,951 (21.2)% 16,153,913 (18.0)%Source: Automotive NewsOther regional sales (to June 2012) June 2012 June 2011 Var (%) Var (%) Var (%) Var (%) Var (%) YTD YTD 2012/2011 FY2011 FY2010 2011/2010 FY2009 2010/2009 FY2008 2009/2008 FY2007 2008/2007Japan 2,525,764 1,612,368 56.6% 3,524,788 4,212,280 (16.3)% 3,923,741 7.4% 4,227,643 (7.2)% 4,400,299 (3.9)%Brazil (incl. LCV) 1,716,916 1,737,217 (1.2)% 3,633,248 3,515,064 3.4% 3,141,240 11.9% 2,193,277 43.2% 1,975,518 11.0%China (incl. LCV) 7,613,500 7,110,300 (7.1)% 18,505,100 18,061,900 2.5% 13,645,010 32.4% 9,380,000 45.5% 8,690,000 7.9%Sources: JAMA, ANFAVEA, CAAMUSA China• August sales rose 20% year on year, with Toyota Group • China’s registrations to June were up 7.1% on the same improving 46% (30.5% YTD) to gain a 14.4% share of the period in 2011; this compares with growth of 5.2% for the market, up from 12.7% in 2011. GM remains the highest full year but is a long way from 2010’s 30% growth rate volume manufacturer, up 4% year on year, ahead of Ford, up 6%, and Chrysler, which maintains a 26% YTD India increase. • Sales in India rose in the first eight months of the year,• Full year sales are now forecast to hit close to 15m units, following predictions of 10% 2012 growth. significantly up on 2011 and the best year since the 16.2m in 2007 Russia • A 10% increase in June car and light commercial sales wasJapan followed by a record year-on-year July, recording growth• Japan’s sales improved by 57%, as the automakers of 14%. Year to date sales were also up 14%, exceeding continued to bounce back from severe quake-related France by volume. product shortages last summerBrazil• Sales were down 1.2% to June, but have since increased through August, due to tax incentives for autos which have now been extended until end October. Automotive Messenger October 2012 9
  • 10. Automotive MessengerEconomic snapshot (in GBP) Last share price (£) % change in last year Market Cap (£’million) Latest quarterly EBIT Previous year quarterly EBIT Latest Annual EBIT Previous year annual EBITOEMs Audi AG 511.0 (5.9) 8,891 4,206 2,677BMW AG 57.2 13.0 34,452 2,095 2,737 7,858 5,112BYD Co. Ltd. 14.0 (7.4) 11,103 1,663 3,047Daihatsu Motor Co. Ltd. 1,256.0 (1.6) 536,466 37,837 17,266 115,462 103,443Daimler AG 39.3 21.4 41,930 1,830 2,216 7,240 7,012Fiat SpA 4.5 21.6 5,582 886 235 2,445 1,112Ford Motor Co. 9.9 (3.0) 37,113 2,568 3,450 11,406 12,810Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. 2.5 14.9 18,475 1,639 1,508Honda Motor Co. Ltd. 2,472.0 5.7 4,477,851 176,013 22,579 231,364 569,775Hyundai Motor Co. Ltd. 227,500.0 18.5 50,112,901 2,030,697 1,695,368 7,689,395 9,117,742Mazda Motor Corp. 89.0 (39.5) 266,945 1,800 (23,086) (38,718) 23,835Mitsubishi Corp. 1,386.0 (20.8) 2,291,759 1,629 84,197 271,122 316,141Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. 722.0 10.2 3,263,956 120,675 150,372 545,839 537,467Peugeot S.A. 6.0 (61.4) 2,143 1,315 1,796Porsche Automobil Holding SE 41.5 (0.9) 6,358 (76) (86)Renault S.A. 37.8 57.6 11,184 1,091 1,099SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd. 11.9 (19.2) 131,425 6,128 5,316 29,358 19,228Suzuki Motor Corp. 1,377.0 (7.0) 772,562 35,648 25,574 119,029 106,544Toyota Motor Corp. 3,100.0 19.0 10,688,793 308,977 (107,963) 339,896 468,279Volkswagen AG 129.0 34.2 38,052 2,821 2,300 9,471 4,527Retailers Group 1 Automotive Inc. 58.3 49.8 1,328 63 55 198 157H.R. Owen PLC 0.6 (25.3) 15 2 2Inchcape PLC 3.8 31.8 1,740 235 226Lookers PLC 0.7 42.2 278 44 45Pendragon PLC 0.2 51.2 214 80 61Penske Automotive Group Inc. 28.5 66.8 2,573 90 71 298 241Suppliers Aisin Seiki Co. Ltd. 2,450.0 4.1 721,953 45,597 (4,803) 121,832 137,266Denso Corp. 2,584.0 13.7 2,284,434 78,170 (4,374) 160,732 188,331GKN PLC 2.2 24.4 3,605 406 429Johnson Controls Inc. 27.5 (7.8) 18,801 545 407 1,974 1,445Magna International Inc. 44.1 25.4 10,295 438 322 1,233 1,245TRW Automotive Holdings Corp. 45.3 18.5 5,529 329 360 1,218 1,189ThyssenKrupp AG 16.1 (21.6) 8,288 (84) 460 1,213 81410
  • 11. Automotive Messenger Selected retailers share price performance 200 Pendragon PLC Inchcape PLC Lookers PLC Share price (rebased at 100) 150 H. R. Owen PLC Penske Automotive Group Inc 100 50 0 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11 7/1/11 10/1/11 1/1/12 4/1/12 7/1/12 Selected OEMs share price performance 200 Daimler AG Toyota Motor Corp Fiat SpA Share price (rebased at 100) 150 Ford Motor Co Honda Motor Co Ltd Nissan Motor Co Ltd 100 Peugeot SA Volkswagon AG FTSE 100 50 0 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11 7/1/11 10/1/11 1/1/12 4/1/12 7/1/12 Selected suppliers share price performance 250 Denso Corp Magna International Inc Johnson Controls IncShare price (rebased at 100) 200 GKN PLC FTSE 100 150 100 50 1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11 7/1/11 10/1/11 1/1/12 4/1/12 7/1/12 Automotive Messenger October 2012 11
  • 12. Contact usNational Contacts Regional ContactsDaniel Taylor David Bennett Joe McLeanPartner Birmingham Leeds/NewcastleT +44 (0)118 983 9601 T +44 (0)121 232 5217 T +44 (0)113 200 1506M +44 (0)7976 225 265 M +44 (0)7971 645 939 M +44 (0)7970 471 894E daniel.taylor@uk.gt.com E david.bennett@uk.gt.com E joe.mclean@uk.gt.comPaul Burrows Nigel Morrison Rob CavenDirector Bristol ScotlandT +44 (0)1908 359 554 T +44 (0)117 305 7811 T +44 (0)141 223 0629M +44 (0)7850 538 309 M +44 (0)7978 854 440 M +44 (0)7774 191 272E paul.v.burrows@uk.gt.com E nigel.morrison@uk.gt.com E rob.caven@uk.gt.comAndrew Shackleton Ian Carr James StaresDirector Cambridge SouthamptonT +44 (0)190 835 9576 T +44 (0)1223 225 625 T +44 (0)2380 381 193M +44 (0)7973 712 040 M +44 (0)7970 096 195 M +44 (0)7791 618 106E andrew.d.shackleton@uk.gt.com E ian.carr@uk.gt.com E james.w.stares@uk.gt.comNeil Barrell Alistair WardellAssociate Director CardiffT +44 (0)117 305 7616 T +44 (0)29 2034 7520M +44 (0)7976 550 312 M +44 (0)7815 062 698E neil.barrell@uk.gt.com E alistair.g.wardell@uk.gt.comHelen Hodges Les RossAssociate Director ManchesterT +44 (0)20 7728 3399 T +44 (0)161 953 6343M +44 (0)7814 887 484 M +44 (0)7973 370 350E helen.hodges@uk.gt.com E les.ross@uk.gt.comChris Eyre Matt DunhamManager ManchesterT +44 (0)118 983 9611 T +44 (0)161 953 6495M +44 (0)7500 093 909 M +44 (0)7710 987 582E chris.eyre@uk.gt.com E matt.dunham@uk.gt.com© 2012 Grant Thornton UK LLP. All rights reserved. ‘Grant Thornton’ means Grant Thornton UK LLP, a limited liability partnership.Grant Thornton is a member firm of Grant Thornton International Ltd (Grant Thornton International). References to ‘Grant Thornton’ are to the brand under which the Grant Thornton member firms operate andrefer to one or more member firms, as the context requires. Grant Thornton International and the member firms are not a worldwide partnership. Services are delivered independently by member firms, whichare not responsible for the services or activities of one another. Grant Thornton International does not provide services to clients. This publication has been prepared only as a guide. No responsibility can beaccepted by us for loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from acting as a result of any material in this publication.grant-thornton.co.ukV22262

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