The automotive market has been a consistent bright spot for metals makers over the past couple of years even as other end-users have become increasingly volatile. Demand up and down the supply chain has remained strong, and steel, aluminum, stainless steel and other metals products show no signs of slowing down.

1. 5.9% 5% 2.9% 2.5%
2016 Vehicle Sales
The automotive market has been a consistent bright spot for metals makers over
the past couple of years even as other end-users have become increasingly volatile.
Demand up and down the supply chain has remained strong, and steel, aluminum,
stainless steel and other metals products show no signs of slowing down.
This follows a 2015 that set a record for the number of vehicles sold in a single year
in the U.S., the culmination of several years of steady recovery from the depths of
the Great Recession.
Through the first quarter of 2016, U.S. vehicle sales are on a pace to wind up between
17.55 and 18 million units on an annualized basis.
Source: Motor Intelligence
Source: National Automobile Dealers Association
Source: Investing.com
Source: Ward's Automotive Report
Source: Ward's Automotive Report
Market Share by Type of Light Vehicle
2010 v. 2015
CUV Pickup Luxury Car SUV Van Large CarSmall carMid-size
car
2016 Light Vehicles Through February
Percentage of Light Vehicle Composition by Material
2015 v.2035
Source: U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Program
Conventional Steel
AHSS
Aluminum
Non Metallics
Other
Fuel usage
Average fleet-wide CAFE performance targets and projected achieved performance levels
for model years 2015-2025 in miles per gallon
Sources: EPA; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Source: Wall Street Journal
Top U.S. Auto sales by manufacturer
“The bears argue that the industry has peaked and is ready to roll
over. They often cite the fact that the U.S. auto industry is in its
seventh year of expansion, margins are as good as they get, and a
recession is right around the corner. On the other hand, a number
of people, including GM, believe that the industry is plateauing,
with many years of strong performance ahead.”
Chuck Stevens, GM executive vice president and chief financial officer
Source: AMM
©GeneralMotors
Good Road
Conditions
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
60
50
40
30
0
33.8
31.5
32.7
34.8
36
38.2
39.9
42
44.2
45.6 46.2
35.5 36.6
38.3
40
41.7
44.7
46.8
49.4
52
54.5
CAFE Target
CAFE Projected
Achieved
42.9
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016
4.5m 18m
As a result, aluminum and steel continue to slug it out for the future of meeting auto
end-user needs.
Although the CAFE standards may change over time, the strength of the automotive
market is not expected to change significantly in the near-term future.
The lightweighting movements to aluminum and new steel products have been driven
by changing and pending Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards from the
federal government. (Under these standards, the final target and the anticipated
actual performance are both projected values due to uncertainty regarding the final
composition of vehicle types in the new-vehicle fleets for future model years.)
A rapid increase in new light-duty vehicle fuel economy has occurred since late 2007,
according to a recent University of Michigan study. American automakers have
benefitted in recent years from the combination of new fuel standards and improved
auto metals. For example, Detroit did well in auto sales last year.
This has meant an increase in sales of not just all vehicles, but of larger vehicles.
Cross-over Utility Vehicles and SUVs now account for more than 1/3 of all light
vehicle sales.
The Ford F-150, which features an aluminum body, has been one of the bigger success
stories in those categories. For the first two months of 2016, the Ford F-Series
pickups led all sales.
54.5
20
2523
19
8
14
10.5
22
4
17.6%
14.9% 14.3% 12.8%
New Light Vehicle Sales by Year
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Some of this success has been based on affordable fuel, which has seen oil prices
mostly dropping for nearly two years.
16.95m 16.5m 16.09m
13.19m
10.4m
11.55m
12.73m
14.44m
15.52m
16.44m
17.47m
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Monthly Averages, Brent Crude Oil Prices
2014-2016
$48.37
$49.56
$44.61
$37.28
$34.74
$35.97
$41.38
Prices(USD/barrel)
2014 20162015
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
$112.36
$103.19
$94.67
$85.86
$70.15
$57.56
$53.95
$64.84
$57.08
$67.45
$65.56
$63.59
$52.51
$54.15
$106.02
24.5%
27.9%
20.5%
18.9%
17.8%
18.7%
13.9% 13.3%
7.6% 7.4%
© 2016 American Metal Market
Subscribe >>
112,237
68,493
59,253
54,448
51,704
50,476
47,077
46,550
45,319
44,458
80,999
Ford F - Series PU
Chevrolet Silverado PU
Dodge Ram PU
Toyota Camry
Honda Civic
Toyota Corolla / Matrix
Nissan Altima
Toyota RAV4
Honda Accord
Ford Fusion
Honda CR-V
6.9% 6.3%