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The Impact of Agriculture on
Climate Change
Raymond L. Desjardins, D. Worth, W. Smith, B. Grant, A. VanderZaag, X. Verge,
J. Dyer, A. Betts, H. Letailleur, E. Pattey, B. G. McConkey, C. Monreal
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Ottawa, ON Canada
Presented at the Symposium on Beneficial Microbes for
Agriculture and Biosphere Protection
Madrid, Spain May 20- 21, 2014
2
Outline
•The Earth’s global radiation budget
•Anthropogenic influence on past GHG concentration
•Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing
•Potential impact of agriculture on future radiative forcing
•Summary
•The Earth’s global radiation budget
•Anthropogenic influence on past GHG concentration
•Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing
•Potential impact of agriculture on future radiative forcing
•Summary
3
Surface Energy Budget
Atmosphere
Land
Sensible
Heat Flux
(H)
Latent
Heat Flux
(LE)
Incoming
Shortwave
Radiation
(S )
Reflected
Shortwave
Radiation
(S )
Incoming
Longwave
Radiation
(L )
Outgoing
Longwave
Radiation
(L )
Net Radiation (Rn) = S - S + L - L
Albedo (α) =
S
SRn = LE + H + GRn = LE + H + G
Ground
Heat Flux
(G)
4
The Earth’s Global Energy Budget
Source: Trenberth et al. (2009)
5
Greenhouse gas and Climate Change
What does “Radiative Forcing” mean?
• Earth receives approximately 341 W m-2
of solar energy (mean over seasons)
• ~30% reflected away (average Earth albedo of 0.3), remaining 239 W m-2
absorbed
• Surface emits 396 W m-2
as long-wave radiation, 90% is absorbed & re-
emitted by atmospheric greenhouse gases, 239 W m-2
emerges from the top
of the atmosphere
• Radiative forcing is the net change in radiation as the result of a change
imposed upon the Earth-Atmosphere system
• Consequence: 1 W m-2
extra forcing → ~0.5° mean air temp increase
• A change in albedo of ≈ 0.5% results in a change in radiative forcing equal to
1.7 W m-2
• Earth receives approximately 341 W m-2
of solar energy (mean over seasons)
• ~30% reflected away (average Earth albedo of 0.3), remaining 239 W m-2
absorbed
• Surface emits 396 W m-2
as long-wave radiation, 90% is absorbed & re-
emitted by atmospheric greenhouse gases, 239 W m-2
emerges from the top
of the atmosphere
• Radiative forcing is the net change in radiation as the result of a change
imposed upon the Earth-Atmosphere system
• Consequence: 1 W m-2
extra forcing → ~0.5° mean air temp increase
• A change in albedo of ≈ 0.5% results in a change in radiative forcing equal to
1.7 W m-2
Reflected by
Surface
Absorbed by
Atmosphere
Reflected by
Clouds and
Atmosphere
Reflected Shorwave
Radiation
Back
Radiation
Greenhouse
Gases
Atmospheric
Window
Incoming Shortwave
Radiation
Outgoing
Longwave
Radiation
Earth’s global mean annual energy balance (W m-2
)
101.9
100.0
78
75
341.3
340.2
238.5
239.7
356
398
161
165
23
23
79
74.7
Absorbed by
Surface
Surface
Radiation
Absorbed by
Surface
Modified from Trenberth et al. (2009)
Trenberth et al. (2009)
Stephens et al. (2012)
Estimates By:
100 =
100 =
Surface
Imbalance
+ 0.9
+ 0.6
Emitted by
Atmosphere
80
88
17
24
Latent
Heat
Sensible
Heat
396
398
333
345.6
The impact of a change in the surface albedo on the energy
budget and on air temperature (Betts, Desjardins et al. 2014)
RnSnow-free = RnSnow-covered - 50 Wm-2
Soil
Snowpack
Fall-winter snow transition
Soil
Shortwave
radiation
Longwave
radiation
Increased
Albedo:
69% of
impact
Decreased
incoming
longwave
radiation: 31%
of impact
The impact of a change in the surface albedo on the energy
budget and on air temperature
We recently estimated that with the fall-winter snow transition in the
Canadian Prairies, the net radiation at the surface is reduced by 50
Wm-2
, with 69% coming from the reduced net shortwave flux, resulting
from the increased surface albedo and a small increase in effective
cloud albedo, and 31% from reduced incoming long wave radiation.
This difference in net radiation is enough to reduce the air temperature
near the surface by approximately 11 ˚C.
We also showed that for every 10% decrease in days with snow cover
over the Canadian Prairies, the mean October to April air temperature
is warmer by 1.4 C
We recently estimated that with the fall-winter snow transition in the
Canadian Prairies, the net radiation at the surface is reduced by 50
Wm-2
, with 69% coming from the reduced net shortwave flux, resulting
from the increased surface albedo and a small increase in effective
cloud albedo, and 31% from reduced incoming long wave radiation.
This difference in net radiation is enough to reduce the air temperature
near the surface by approximately 11 ˚C.
We also showed that for every 10% decrease in days with snow cover
over the Canadian Prairies, the mean October to April air temperature
is warmer by 1.4 C
Source: Betts, A.K., R. Desjardins, D. Worth, S. Wang and J. Li (2014), Coupling of winter climate transitions to
snow and clouds over the Prairies. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 1118-1139, doi:10.1002/2013JD021168.
9
Outline
•The Earth’s global radiation budget
•Anthropogenic influence on past CO2 & CH4 concentrations
•Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing
•Potential impact of agriculture on future climate radiative forcing
•Summary
•The Earth’s global radiation budget
•Anthropogenic influence on past CO2 & CH4 concentrations
•Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing
•Potential impact of agriculture on future climate radiative forcing
•Summary
10
Development of Anthropogenic Climate Change
Hypothesis
Vladimir Ivanovich Vernadsky, 1920’s, argued that living beings
could collectively reshape the planet, similar to physical forces
Vladimir Ivanovich Vernadsky, 1920’s, argued that living beings
could collectively reshape the planet, similar to physical forces
Guy Stewart Callandar, 1938, linked increasing surface
temperature between 1890 and 1938 to increasing atmospheric
CO2
Guy Stewart Callandar, 1938, linked increasing surface
temperature between 1890 and 1938 to increasing atmospheric
CO2
Svante Arrhenius, 1896, argued that a doubling of atmospheric
CO2 could bring about a global increase in temperature
amounting to 5-6 ºC
Svante Arrhenius, 1896, argued that a doubling of atmospheric
CO2 could bring about a global increase in temperature
amounting to 5-6 ºC
John Tyndall, 1859, discovered the absorptive properties of
water vapour and carbon dioxide
John Tyndall, 1859, discovered the absorptive properties of
water vapour and carbon dioxide
11
Source: Ruddiman (2003)
Prehistoric Trend in Atmospheric CH4 Shows
Evidence of Anthropogenic Influence
Historic trend in atmospheric CH4
concentration and insolation at
30 ºN, consistent with orbital
monsoon theory
Historic trend in atmospheric CH4
concentration and insolation at
30 ºN, consistent with orbital
monsoon theory
In the past 7,500 years, this
coherent relationship broke
down, and insolation decreased
towards a minima, whereas CH4
increased. Ruddiman (2003)
postulated that this anomalous
increase in CH4 is related to the
development of ‘wet rice’ farming
in China and India
In the past 7,500 years, this
coherent relationship broke
down, and insolation decreased
towards a minima, whereas CH4
increased. Ruddiman (2003)
postulated that this anomalous
increase in CH4 is related to the
development of ‘wet rice’ farming
in China and India
250 ppb increase in CH4
attributed to early rice farming
250 ppb increase in CH4
attributed to early rice farming
12
Atmospheric Methane Concentration
Source: IPCC (2007)
13
Prehistoric Trend in Atmospheric CO2 Shows
Evidence of Anthropogenic Influence
Source: Ruddiman (2003)
An anomalous increase of 40 ppm in
the historic atmospheric CO2
concentration was observed.
An anomalous increase of 40 ppm in
the historic atmospheric CO2
concentration was observed.
Natural explanations for the
increase in CO2 such as natural
biomass loss and a change in ocean
carbonate chemistry were refuted
and it was argued that forest
clearance in Eurasia accounted for
the anomalous increase in CO2
concentration (224- 245 Gt C).
Natural explanations for the
increase in CO2 such as natural
biomass loss and a change in ocean
carbonate chemistry were refuted
and it was argued that forest
clearance in Eurasia accounted for
the anomalous increase in CO2
concentration (224- 245 Gt C).
14
Atmospheric GHG Concentration
Source: IPCC (2007)
15
Outline
•The Earth’s global radiation budget
•Anthropogenic influence on past CO2 & CH4 concentrations
•Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing
•Potential impact of agriculture on future radiative forcing
•Summary
•The Earth’s global radiation budget
•Anthropogenic influence on past CO2 & CH4 concentrations
•Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing
•Potential impact of agriculture on future radiative forcing
•Summary
16
Climate Forcing
Greenhouse gases
Biogeochemical
impact
Land-use change
Biogeophysical
impact
Source: IPCC (2013)
17
Radiative forcing and albedo
In recognition of the linkage between climate and surface
albedo, the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC identified
change in surface albedo, associated with land use change,
among the key factors influencing climate radiative forcing,
amounting to about -0.15 Wm-2
.
The IPCC also identified the radiative forcing of albedo due to
land use change as having a low level of scientific
understanding.
In recognition of the linkage between climate and surface
albedo, the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC identified
change in surface albedo, associated with land use change,
among the key factors influencing climate radiative forcing,
amounting to about -0.15 Wm-2
.
The IPCC also identified the radiative forcing of albedo due to
land use change as having a low level of scientific
understanding.
18
1950 - “natural”
1950 forcing relative to
“natural”
global mean: -0.18 Wm-2
Global Change in Albedo due to Land-Use
Change
Source: Betts et al. (2007)
1990 - “natural”
1990 forcing relative to
“natural”
global mean: -0.24 Wm-2
As a result of the land use change, northern mid-latitude
agricultural regions are simulated to be about 1-2 ºC cooler in
winter and spring as compared to the their natural state.
As a result of the land use change, northern mid-latitude
agricultural regions are simulated to be about 1-2 ºC cooler in
winter and spring as compared to the their natural state.
19
Differences in net radiation between forest and grasslands
Conifer – Grass: Rnet
Mean annual difference
= 14 Wm-2
Deciduous – Grass: Rnet
Mean annual difference
= 2 Wm-2
Source: Betts, Desjardins et al. 2007
AgroecosystemsAgroecosystems
ClimateClimate
Biogeophysical
Albedo
Roughness
Hydrology
Biogeophysical
Albedo
Roughness
Hydrology
Biogeochemical
Nutrients, Carbon
Pools
Biogeochemical
Nutrients, Carbon
Pools
Latent and
sensible heat
fluxes
CO2, CH4, N2O
Emissions
Temperature,
Water
Relations
Impact of agriculture on climate
Atmosphere
Animals
Rice Fossil FuelPlants
Waste
Soil
CO2 CO2
CO2
CH4
N2O
CO2
CH4
CH4
CO2
CH4
N2O
CO2
CH4
N2O
Agricultural GHG Emissions
22
Contribution of Agriculture to GHG Concentration
Agricultural lands occupy 37% of the earth’s land surface
Agriculture accounts for 52 and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and
nitrous oxide emissions- It can be a source or sink of carbon dioxide
Agricultural lands occupy 37% of the earth’s land surface
Agriculture accounts for 52 and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and
nitrous oxide emissions- It can be a source or sink of carbon dioxide
Global
Direct farming
activities
13-15% of Global
GHG Emissions
Direct farming
activities + land
use change
18-32% of Global
GHG Emissions
Source: US EPA (2006); FAO (2006); Bellarby et al (2008)
Global GHG emissions
• It is estimated that between 1750 to 1970
emissions of CO2 from agricultural soils are about
equal to the fossil fuel emissions during that time
• Current global GHG emissions are about 49 Gt
CO2e y-1
, 74% of which are CO2, 16% CH4 and
10% N2O
• CO2concentration is increasing at 2 ppmv y-1
that
is 6 Pg C y-1
or 6 Gt C y-1
or 22 Gt CO2 y-1
23
24
Impact of Present-Day Agriculture on Deforestation
• Forests account for 25% of the land area 75% of C in
vegetation and 40% of carbon in soil
• Deforestation produces 5.9 Gt CO2 y-1
, 17% of annual
anthropogenic GHG emissions
• CO2 is released from organic matter decomposition
where soil C is metabolized by soil microorganisms to
CH4 and CO2 and is released to the atmosphere.
• Tropical deforestation takes place mainly for large-scale
agriculture
Soil C Change in Agricultural Soils (Lal 2003)
• Area of arable land 1,369 Mha
• Permanent pasture 3,460 Mha
• Permanent crops 132 Mha
• Most croplands have lost 30 – 40 Mg C/ha
• It is estimated that agricultural soils have lost
66-90 Pg C
• Global soil C sequestration potential 0.4 - 0.8
Pg C y-1
• Potential 30-60 Pg C over the next 25-50
years
25
Anthropogenic Global Methane Sources-
Beneficial Microbes (2010)
Source: Global Carbon Project 2013; Figure based on Kirschke et al. 2013
Juniper, T. 2013 What has nature ever done for us? Profile books, 324pp.
Source: IPCC 2007
Anthropogenic Global Sources of Nitrous oxide
• Decay of organic matter by microbes in
soil release reactive N
• Biological N fixation- N fixing bacteria
into reactive N
• Application of inorganic fertilizer
28
Sources of Nitrous Oxide
Substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emission
intensities of Canadian agricultural products
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
GHGemissionsperkilogramofmilkorliveweight
producedordozeneggs
1981 1986 1991
1996 2001 2006
Source: Dyer et al (2008); Vergé et al (2008); Vergé et al (2009a; 2009b)
Milk
-26%
Beef
-56%
Pork
-56%
Poultry -
broiler meat
-19%
Poultry - eggs
-8%
Improved breeds, adoption of BMPs such as no-tillage and increased feeding of
leguminous crops have led to a reduction in emissions intensity dairy, beef and
pork production in Canada.
Improved breeds, adoption of BMPs such as no-tillage and increased feeding of
leguminous crops have led to a reduction in emissions intensity dairy, beef and
pork production in Canada.
Carbon footprint of animal products per unit
of protein
Source: Dyer, Desjardins et al (2010)
One of the primary functions of
animal products is to provide protein
for growth. Therefore, expressing the
carbon footprint per unit of protein is
one way to compare emissions
between animal types.
AgroecosystemsAgroecosystems
ClimateClimate
Biogeophysical
Albedo
Roughness
Hydrology
Biogeophysical
Albedo
Roughness
Hydrology
Biogeochemical
Nutrients, Carbon
Pools
Biogeochemical
Nutrients, Carbon
Pools
Latent and
sensible heat
fluxes
CO2, CH4, N2O
Emissions
Temperature,
Water
Relations
Impact of agriculture on climate
32
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Perennial crops Summerfallow No-Tillage
Area(millionha)
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Perennial crops Summerfallow No-Tillage
Area(millionha)
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
What is the impact of a decrease in area under summerfallow on the
air temperature on the Canadian Prairies?
What is the impact of a decrease in area under summerfallow on the
air temperature on the Canadian Prairies?
Trends in Agricultural Management Practices in Canada
33
Rn
Bare Soil
Vegetated Surface
Rn
zi=2-3 km
zi=0.5 km
G G
H LE
H LE
Effects of Leaving the Land Surface Bare for a
Summer on the Energy Budget
Source: Gameda et al. (2007)
Bare
Soil
Vegetated
LE - +
H + -
G + -
zi + -
34
Impact of Summerfallow on Climate: Mean
Daily Maimum Air Temperature
1951-1975: Increasing
levels of summerfallow
8.7 Mha-11.4 Mha
T max increasing over
time
1951-1975: Increasing
levels of summerfallow
8.7 Mha-11.4 Mha
T max increasing over
time
1976-2000: Declining
levels of summerfallow
11.4 Mha-5.4 Mha
T max decreasing over
time
1976-2000: Declining
levels of summerfallow
11.4 Mha-5.4 Mha
T max decreasing over
time
Source: Gameda et al 2007
On the Canadian prairies, the elimination of 6 Mha of
summerfallow has been associated with a period of time when
June 15 to July 15 mean daily maximum temperature has
decreased, likely due to a decrease in the sensible heat flux and
an increase in evapotranspiration. This analysis shows that
reduction of summer fallowing has caused a reduction in
maximum air temperature of 1.7 C per decade during the
mid- June to mid-July period.
On the Canadian prairies, the elimination of 6 Mha of
summerfallow has been associated with a period of time when
June 15 to July 15 mean daily maximum temperature has
decreased, likely due to a decrease in the sensible heat flux and
an increase in evapotranspiration. This analysis shows that
reduction of summer fallowing has caused a reduction in
maximum air temperature of 1.7 C per decade during the
mid- June to mid-July period.
35
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Perennial crops Summerfallow No-Tillage
Area(millionha)
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Perennial crops Summerfallow No-Tillage
Area(millionha)
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
What are the combined biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts
of a decrease in area of summerfallow in the Canadian Prairies in
terms of climate radiative forcing?
What are the combined biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts
of a decrease in area of summerfallow in the Canadian Prairies in
terms of climate radiative forcing?
Trends in Agricultural Management Practices in Canada
36
How to calculate net reflected shortwave radiation?
Absorbed shortwave radiation in Wm−2
(a) is estimated as:Absorbed shortwave radiation in Wm−2
(a) is estimated as:
)()1( IIa αβα +−=
aINRS −=
where I is the incoming shortwave flux (Wm−2
),
α is the albedo, and
β is a coefficient to correct for the atmospheric absorption of
reflected short wave flux
The net reflected shortwave radiation can be calculated as
follows:
where I is the incoming shortwave flux (Wm−2
),
α is the albedo, and
β is a coefficient to correct for the atmospheric absorption of
reflected short wave flux
The net reflected shortwave radiation can be calculated as
follows:
where NRS is the net reflected shortwave radiation (Wm−2
)where NRS is the net reflected shortwave radiation (Wm−2
)
37
where Ar is the area of the region of interest and Ae is the
Earth’s surface area, and subscript 1 and 2 refers to the
different land cover types
The equivalent radiative forcing of carbon can be determined using
following equation (Betts 2000)
where Ar is the area of the region of interest and Ae is the
Earth’s surface area, and subscript 1 and 2 refers to the
different land cover types
The equivalent radiative forcing of carbon can be determined using
following equation (Betts 2000)
erR AANRSNRS /)( 21 −=δ
where C0 is the atmospheric CO2 concentration (397 ppmv),
and ΔC is the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration
where C0 is the atmospheric CO2 concentration (397 ppmv),
and ΔC is the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration
)/1(35.5 0CCLnRFC ∆+=
The differences in reflected shortwave radiation for various land
cover types affect the local radiation budget. This effect on
global radiative forcing can be estimated for a given region of
interest by
The differences in reflected shortwave radiation for various land
cover types affect the local radiation budget. This effect on
global radiative forcing can be estimated for a given region of
interest by
How is a change in soil carbon related to a change in albedo?
38
For the reduction in summerfallowing in the province of Saskatchewan for the period between 1971 and
2006, we estimated a net radiative forcing of -0.160 mWm−2
of which 67% of this effect was due to a
change in albedo and the remainder to soil C sequestration
39
Agricultural Practice Biogeophysical
effect
Biogeochemical
effect
Net Effect
Reduced tillage + _ _ _ − −
Afforestation + + _ _ _ _
Deforestation − − + + + +
Plant forage crops − − − − −
Irrigation − − + −
Biochar + − − −
Leaf albedo bio-
geoengineering
− − − −
Biofuel − − + −
Synchronize N availability
to N use by crops
− − − −
Reduced fallow - -- − − − − −
Plant fall crops − − − −
Leave long stubble for
snow trapping
− − − −
Biophysical and Biochemical Forcing of
Agricultural Management Practices
40
Outline
•The Earth’s global radiation budget
•Anthropogenic influence on past GHG concentration
•Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing
•Potential impact of agriculture on future radiative forcing
•Summary
•The Earth’s global radiation budget
•Anthropogenic influence on past GHG concentration
•Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing
•Potential impact of agriculture on future radiative forcing
•Summary
Source: Lal (2003); Verge et al. 2007
Carbon Sequestration in Agricultural Soils
Carbon sequestration is the process of removing carbon from the
atmosphere and depositing it in a reservoir.
Global potential for carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is estimated at
30-60 Pg C over the next 50 years, through the adoption of BMPs and
restoration of degraded soils. Impact of climate change
Carbon sequestration is the process of removing carbon from the
atmosphere and depositing it in a reservoir.
Global potential for carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is estimated at
30-60 Pg C over the next 50 years, through the adoption of BMPs and
restoration of degraded soils. Impact of climate change
However, carbon sequestration is dependent upon the continuation of the
management practice and the climatic conditions under which it was
sequestered. Carbon sequestration is a reversible process.
However, carbon sequestration is dependent upon the continuation of the
management practice and the climatic conditions under which it was
sequestered. Carbon sequestration is a reversible process.
Recent estimates of projected climate change suggest that in the future
Canadian agricultural soils could be a source of carbon, amounting to 53-
160 Mt C, depending on the climate change scenario.
Recent estimates of projected climate change suggest that in the future
Canadian agricultural soils could be a source of carbon, amounting to 53-
160 Mt C, depending on the climate change scenario.
42
Biodigestion of Animal Wastes and Crop
Residues
Current estimates of the maximum annual methane production potential
from the biodigestion of animal manure in Canada (≈ 2.3 × 109
m3
) have the
energetic equivalent of 1% of annual fossil energy demand.
Current estimates of the maximum annual methane production potential
from the biodigestion of animal manure in Canada (≈ 2.3 × 109
m3
) have the
energetic equivalent of 1% of annual fossil energy demand.
Source: Levin et al. (2007)
However, current technical and economic factors limit the total energy
production from these sources to much less than the maximum potential.
However, current technical and economic factors limit the total energy
production from these sources to much less than the maximum potential.
43
Bioenergy
Thousands of biodigesters are being built all over the
world.
Thousands of biodigesters are being built all over the
world.
Is this a way to ensure the sustainability of agricultural
production?
Is this a way to ensure the sustainability of agricultural
production?
44
Production of Ethanol from Corn
Ethanol production, especially from corn, has received
considerable attention in the popular and scientific literature.
Ethanol production, especially from corn, has received
considerable attention in the popular and scientific literature.
Current life cycle analysis estimates that corn ethanol production reduces GHG
emissions by ≈ 10-20%, relative to conventional gasoline. However, if emissions
from land use change are considered (which is necessary to produce food that
has been diverted for fuel), emissions are greater for ethanol production than for
gasoline production.
Current life cycle analysis estimates that corn ethanol production reduces GHG
emissions by ≈ 10-20%, relative to conventional gasoline. However, if emissions
from land use change are considered (which is necessary to produce food that
has been diverted for fuel), emissions are greater for ethanol production than for
gasoline production.
Source: Farrell et al. (2006); Searchinger et al. (2008)
Development of cellulosic ethanol
offers the potential to significantly
reduce GHG emissions as
compared to gasoline.
Development of cellulosic ethanol
offers the potential to significantly
reduce GHG emissions as
compared to gasoline.
45
Bioenergy
•Low carbon energy biofuels, bioenergy
e.g. ethanol biofuel production in the US
•Low carbon energy biofuels, bioenergy
e.g. ethanol biofuel production in the US
The target in the US for
2020 is 144 billion
liters/year, 60% is to come
from non-grain sources.
This means that 48 Mha
will be required. This
should cause the most
rapid change in land use
in US history.
The target in the US for
2020 is 144 billion
liters/year, 60% is to come
from non-grain sources.
This means that 48 Mha
will be required. This
should cause the most
rapid change in land use
in US history.
Sinclair 2009
The meat consumption in the world in 2010
46
Consumption of meat in 2010: 286.2 million tonnes
Consumption rate has increased constantly for 50 years: 2.3% for the past
decade
Consumption of meat in 2010: 286.2 million tonnes
Consumption rate has increased constantly for 50 years: 2.3% for the past
decade
Beef
Pork
Poultry
FranceAgrimer 2011, FAO 2010
South America
Central America
North America
Global repartition (%)
Europe
Asia
OceaniaAfrica
Substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emission
intensities of Canadian agricultural products
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
GHGemissionsperkilogramofliveweight
produced
1981 1986 1991
1996 2001 2006
Source: Dyer et al (2008); Vergé et al (2008); Vergé et al (2009a; 2009b)
Beef
-56%
Pork
-56%
Poultry -
broiler meat
-19%
Change in beef, pork and poultry consumption
48
Source: FAO, 2010
Considering the GHG emissions for each type of meat production, the
GHG emissions in 2010 were about 3.7 Gt CO2e.
By 2040 the GHG emissions due to meat consumption would be about
5.1 Gt CO2e if the growth rate remains the same. Hence, even if the
beef consumption is decreasing, it still does not offset the increase in
GHG emissions due to the predicted increase in population.
Considering the GHG emissions for each type of meat production, the
GHG emissions in 2010 were about 3.7 Gt CO2e.
By 2040 the GHG emissions due to meat consumption would be about
5.1 Gt CO2e if the growth rate remains the same. Hence, even if the
beef consumption is decreasing, it still does not offset the increase in
GHG emissions due to the predicted increase in population.
49
Crop Bioengineering
Recent research has estimated that if the albedo of global croplands could
be increased by 0.04, then a global cooling of approximately 0.1 ºC could
be achieved, with regional cooling in the continental northern hemisphere of
1 ºC during the summer months.
Recent research has estimated that if the albedo of global croplands could
be increased by 0.04, then a global cooling of approximately 0.1 ºC could
be achieved, with regional cooling in the continental northern hemisphere of
1 ºC during the summer months.
Source: Ridgwell et al. (2009)
50
How can we assess the impact of agricultural
land management on biophysical forcing?
1. Identify fields with known crop type and management, estimate annual
albedo from satellite imagery and scale up to national scale using
crop/management distribution
1. Identify fields with known crop type and management, estimate annual
albedo from satellite imagery and scale up to national scale using
crop/management distribution
Canada
Spring wheat, no till
Barley, min till
Summerfallow
Synchronizing the Release of Fertilizer-N with Crop Uptake
Improving nitrogen use efficiency by crops
(Use Chemical Signals from Root Exudates
for N release on crop demand C. Monreal)
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6 Crop N uptake
INF-N release
0
25
50
100
75
Growing season (# of days)
CropNUptake(kgN/ha/day)
Rootexudatecontent(micrograms/ml)
Root exudate
52
Microorganisms and climate change
It is unclear
whether changes in
microbial processes
lead to a net
positive or negative
feedback for GHG
emissions.
It is unclear
whether changes in
microbial processes
lead to a net
positive or negative
feedback for GHG
emissions.
•Microbial processes have a central role in the global fluxes of carbon
dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide and are likely to respond rapidly to
climate change.
•There are millions of microorganisms (nematodes, microbes, etc.) in every
teaspoonful of soil. It is important to understand the mechanisms by which
they regulate GHG fluxes from agricultural sources.
•It is a tantalizing prospect for mitigating climate change for the future.
•Microbial processes have a central role in the global fluxes of carbon
dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide and are likely to respond rapidly to
climate change.
•There are millions of microorganisms (nematodes, microbes, etc.) in every
teaspoonful of soil. It is important to understand the mechanisms by which
they regulate GHG fluxes from agricultural sources.
•It is a tantalizing prospect for mitigating climate change for the future.
53
Key Points
•Agriculture is significantly altering the Earth’s energy budget and climate
in a variety of ways
•Because of the large spatial extent and intensive management,
agriculture has contributed and continues to contribute to climate change
through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical mechanisms
•The main role of agriculture is to produce food and presently food
production accounts for about 15-20% of the GHG emissions
•The potential exist in agriculture to reduce GHG emissions and increase
soil carbon sequestration
•The potential impact of soil C sequestration is large but finite and climate
change is likely to make sequestering C very difficult
•Microorganisms play a very important role in the biogeochemical
mecanisms
• Can mankind harness microbial process to help manage climate
change?
•Agriculture is significantly altering the Earth’s energy budget and climate
in a variety of ways
•Because of the large spatial extent and intensive management,
agriculture has contributed and continues to contribute to climate change
through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical mechanisms
•The main role of agriculture is to produce food and presently food
production accounts for about 15-20% of the GHG emissions
•The potential exist in agriculture to reduce GHG emissions and increase
soil carbon sequestration
•The potential impact of soil C sequestration is large but finite and climate
change is likely to make sequestering C very difficult
•Microorganisms play a very important role in the biogeochemical
mecanisms
• Can mankind harness microbial process to help manage climate
change?
54
References
Betts, A. K., Desjardins, R. L. and D. Worth 2007. Impact of agriculture, forest and cloud feedback on the surface energy
budget in BOREAS. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142:156-169.
Betts, R. A., Falloon, P. D., Goldewijk, K. K. and N. Ramankutty. 2007. Biogeophysical effects of land use on climate:
Model simulations of radiative forcing and large-scale temperature change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
142:216-233.
Betts, A.K., R. Desjardins, D. Worth, S. Wang and J. Li 2014. Coupling of winter climate transitions to snow and clouds
over the Prairies. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 1118-1139, doi:10.1002/2013JD021168.
Desjardins, R.L., J.C. Keng and K. Haugen-Kozyra. (editors) 1999. Proceedings on the international workshop on reducing
nitrous oxide emissions from agroecosystems. Banff, Alberta, Mar 3-5. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Research Branch;
Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Conservation and Development Branch. 256 pp.
Desjardins, R.L., Sivakumar, M.V.K. and C. de Kimpe 2007. The contribution of agriculture to the state of climate:
Workshop summary and recommendations. Agric. and Forest Meteorology. 142: 314-324.
Desjardins, R.L. 2010. The impact of agriculture on climate change. In the proceedings of the North American
Biotechnology Conference (NABC) 21. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. pp 29- 39.
Dyer, J.A., X.P.C. Vergé, R.L. Desjardins and D.E. Worth 2010. The protein-based GHG emission intensity for livestock
products in Canada. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture. 34(6):618-629. Doi:10.1080/10440046.2010.493376.
Gameda, S., Qian, B., Campbell, C. and R.L. Desjardins 2007. Climatic trends associated with summerfallow in the
Canadian Prairies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142:170-185.
Hutchinson, J.J., Campbell, C.A., and R.L. Desjardins 2007. Some perspectives on carbon sequestration in agriculture.
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142: 288- 302.
Juniper, T. 2013. What has nature ever done for us? Profile books, 324pp.
Betts, A. K., Desjardins, R. L. and D. Worth 2007. Impact of agriculture, forest and cloud feedback on the surface energy
budget in BOREAS. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142:156-169.
Betts, R. A., Falloon, P. D., Goldewijk, K. K. and N. Ramankutty. 2007. Biogeophysical effects of land use on climate:
Model simulations of radiative forcing and large-scale temperature change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
142:216-233.
Betts, A.K., R. Desjardins, D. Worth, S. Wang and J. Li 2014. Coupling of winter climate transitions to snow and clouds
over the Prairies. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 1118-1139, doi:10.1002/2013JD021168.
Desjardins, R.L., J.C. Keng and K. Haugen-Kozyra. (editors) 1999. Proceedings on the international workshop on reducing
nitrous oxide emissions from agroecosystems. Banff, Alberta, Mar 3-5. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Research Branch;
Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Conservation and Development Branch. 256 pp.
Desjardins, R.L., Sivakumar, M.V.K. and C. de Kimpe 2007. The contribution of agriculture to the state of climate:
Workshop summary and recommendations. Agric. and Forest Meteorology. 142: 314-324.
Desjardins, R.L. 2010. The impact of agriculture on climate change. In the proceedings of the North American
Biotechnology Conference (NABC) 21. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. pp 29- 39.
Dyer, J.A., X.P.C. Vergé, R.L. Desjardins and D.E. Worth 2010. The protein-based GHG emission intensity for livestock
products in Canada. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture. 34(6):618-629. Doi:10.1080/10440046.2010.493376.
Gameda, S., Qian, B., Campbell, C. and R.L. Desjardins 2007. Climatic trends associated with summerfallow in the
Canadian Prairies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142:170-185.
Hutchinson, J.J., Campbell, C.A., and R.L. Desjardins 2007. Some perspectives on carbon sequestration in agriculture.
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142: 288- 302.
Juniper, T. 2013. What has nature ever done for us? Profile books, 324pp.
55
References
Lal, R. 2003. Global potential of soil carbon sequestration to mitigate the greenhouse effect. Critical Reviews in Plant
Sciences 22:151-184.
Ridgwell, A., Singarayer, J. S., Hetherington, A. M. and P.J. Valdes 2009. Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo
bio-geoengineering. Current Biology 19:146-150.
Ruddiman, W. F. 2003. The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago. Climatic Change 61:261-293.
Searchinger, T., Heimlick, R., Houghton, R. A., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., Tokgoz, S., Hayes, D. and T. H. Yu 2008.
Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change. Science
319:1238-1240.
Sinclair, T. R. 2009. Taking measure of biofuel limits. American Scientist 97.5: 400-407.
Smith, W. N., Grant, B. B., Desjardins, R. L., Qian, B., Hutchinson, J. J. and S. Gameda 2009. Potential impact of climate
change on carbon in agricultural soils in Canada 2000-2099. Climatic Change 93:319-333.
Stehfest, E., Bouwman, L., van Vuuren, D. P., den Elzen, M. G. J., Eickhout, B. and Kabat, P. 2009. Climate benefits of
changing diet. Climatic Change In press:DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9534-6.
Stephens, G.L.. Campbell, G.G. and Vonder Haar, T.H. 2012. Earth radiation budgets, J, . Geophys. Res., 86(C10),9739-
9760.
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T. and Kiehl, J. 2009. Earth's global energy budget. Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society 90(3):311-323.
Vergé, X.P.C., de Kimpe, C. and R.L. Desjardins, 2007. Agricultural production, greenhouse gas emissions and
mitigation potential. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142: 255- 269.
Vergé, X.P.C., Dyer, J.A., Desjardins, R.L., and Worth, D. 2008. Greenhouse gas emissions from the Canadian Beef Industry. Agricultural Systems.
98 (2): 126-134.
Vergé, X.P.C., Dyer, J.A., Worth, D.E., Smith, W.N., Desjardins, R.L., and B.G. McConkey. 2012. A greenhouse gas and
soil carbon model for estimating the carbon footprint of livestock production in Canada. Animals, 2: 437-454;
doi:10.3390/ani2030437.
Lal, R. 2003. Global potential of soil carbon sequestration to mitigate the greenhouse effect. Critical Reviews in Plant
Sciences 22:151-184.
Ridgwell, A., Singarayer, J. S., Hetherington, A. M. and P.J. Valdes 2009. Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo
bio-geoengineering. Current Biology 19:146-150.
Ruddiman, W. F. 2003. The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago. Climatic Change 61:261-293.
Searchinger, T., Heimlick, R., Houghton, R. A., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., Tokgoz, S., Hayes, D. and T. H. Yu 2008.
Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change. Science
319:1238-1240.
Sinclair, T. R. 2009. Taking measure of biofuel limits. American Scientist 97.5: 400-407.
Smith, W. N., Grant, B. B., Desjardins, R. L., Qian, B., Hutchinson, J. J. and S. Gameda 2009. Potential impact of climate
change on carbon in agricultural soils in Canada 2000-2099. Climatic Change 93:319-333.
Stehfest, E., Bouwman, L., van Vuuren, D. P., den Elzen, M. G. J., Eickhout, B. and Kabat, P. 2009. Climate benefits of
changing diet. Climatic Change In press:DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9534-6.
Stephens, G.L.. Campbell, G.G. and Vonder Haar, T.H. 2012. Earth radiation budgets, J, . Geophys. Res., 86(C10),9739-
9760.
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T. and Kiehl, J. 2009. Earth's global energy budget. Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society 90(3):311-323.
Vergé, X.P.C., de Kimpe, C. and R.L. Desjardins, 2007. Agricultural production, greenhouse gas emissions and
mitigation potential. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142: 255- 269.
Vergé, X.P.C., Dyer, J.A., Desjardins, R.L., and Worth, D. 2008. Greenhouse gas emissions from the Canadian Beef Industry. Agricultural Systems.
98 (2): 126-134.
Vergé, X.P.C., Dyer, J.A., Worth, D.E., Smith, W.N., Desjardins, R.L., and B.G. McConkey. 2012. A greenhouse gas and
soil carbon model for estimating the carbon footprint of livestock production in Canada. Animals, 2: 437-454;
doi:10.3390/ani2030437.
Raymond Desjardins - Impacto de la agricultura sobre el cambio climático

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Raymond Desjardins - Impacto de la agricultura sobre el cambio climático

  • 1. The Impact of Agriculture on Climate Change Raymond L. Desjardins, D. Worth, W. Smith, B. Grant, A. VanderZaag, X. Verge, J. Dyer, A. Betts, H. Letailleur, E. Pattey, B. G. McConkey, C. Monreal Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Ottawa, ON Canada Presented at the Symposium on Beneficial Microbes for Agriculture and Biosphere Protection Madrid, Spain May 20- 21, 2014
  • 2. 2 Outline •The Earth’s global radiation budget •Anthropogenic influence on past GHG concentration •Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing •Potential impact of agriculture on future radiative forcing •Summary •The Earth’s global radiation budget •Anthropogenic influence on past GHG concentration •Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing •Potential impact of agriculture on future radiative forcing •Summary
  • 3. 3 Surface Energy Budget Atmosphere Land Sensible Heat Flux (H) Latent Heat Flux (LE) Incoming Shortwave Radiation (S ) Reflected Shortwave Radiation (S ) Incoming Longwave Radiation (L ) Outgoing Longwave Radiation (L ) Net Radiation (Rn) = S - S + L - L Albedo (α) = S SRn = LE + H + GRn = LE + H + G Ground Heat Flux (G)
  • 4. 4 The Earth’s Global Energy Budget Source: Trenberth et al. (2009)
  • 5. 5 Greenhouse gas and Climate Change What does “Radiative Forcing” mean? • Earth receives approximately 341 W m-2 of solar energy (mean over seasons) • ~30% reflected away (average Earth albedo of 0.3), remaining 239 W m-2 absorbed • Surface emits 396 W m-2 as long-wave radiation, 90% is absorbed & re- emitted by atmospheric greenhouse gases, 239 W m-2 emerges from the top of the atmosphere • Radiative forcing is the net change in radiation as the result of a change imposed upon the Earth-Atmosphere system • Consequence: 1 W m-2 extra forcing → ~0.5° mean air temp increase • A change in albedo of ≈ 0.5% results in a change in radiative forcing equal to 1.7 W m-2 • Earth receives approximately 341 W m-2 of solar energy (mean over seasons) • ~30% reflected away (average Earth albedo of 0.3), remaining 239 W m-2 absorbed • Surface emits 396 W m-2 as long-wave radiation, 90% is absorbed & re- emitted by atmospheric greenhouse gases, 239 W m-2 emerges from the top of the atmosphere • Radiative forcing is the net change in radiation as the result of a change imposed upon the Earth-Atmosphere system • Consequence: 1 W m-2 extra forcing → ~0.5° mean air temp increase • A change in albedo of ≈ 0.5% results in a change in radiative forcing equal to 1.7 W m-2
  • 6. Reflected by Surface Absorbed by Atmosphere Reflected by Clouds and Atmosphere Reflected Shorwave Radiation Back Radiation Greenhouse Gases Atmospheric Window Incoming Shortwave Radiation Outgoing Longwave Radiation Earth’s global mean annual energy balance (W m-2 ) 101.9 100.0 78 75 341.3 340.2 238.5 239.7 356 398 161 165 23 23 79 74.7 Absorbed by Surface Surface Radiation Absorbed by Surface Modified from Trenberth et al. (2009) Trenberth et al. (2009) Stephens et al. (2012) Estimates By: 100 = 100 = Surface Imbalance + 0.9 + 0.6 Emitted by Atmosphere 80 88 17 24 Latent Heat Sensible Heat 396 398 333 345.6
  • 7. The impact of a change in the surface albedo on the energy budget and on air temperature (Betts, Desjardins et al. 2014) RnSnow-free = RnSnow-covered - 50 Wm-2 Soil Snowpack Fall-winter snow transition Soil Shortwave radiation Longwave radiation Increased Albedo: 69% of impact Decreased incoming longwave radiation: 31% of impact
  • 8. The impact of a change in the surface albedo on the energy budget and on air temperature We recently estimated that with the fall-winter snow transition in the Canadian Prairies, the net radiation at the surface is reduced by 50 Wm-2 , with 69% coming from the reduced net shortwave flux, resulting from the increased surface albedo and a small increase in effective cloud albedo, and 31% from reduced incoming long wave radiation. This difference in net radiation is enough to reduce the air temperature near the surface by approximately 11 ˚C. We also showed that for every 10% decrease in days with snow cover over the Canadian Prairies, the mean October to April air temperature is warmer by 1.4 C We recently estimated that with the fall-winter snow transition in the Canadian Prairies, the net radiation at the surface is reduced by 50 Wm-2 , with 69% coming from the reduced net shortwave flux, resulting from the increased surface albedo and a small increase in effective cloud albedo, and 31% from reduced incoming long wave radiation. This difference in net radiation is enough to reduce the air temperature near the surface by approximately 11 ˚C. We also showed that for every 10% decrease in days with snow cover over the Canadian Prairies, the mean October to April air temperature is warmer by 1.4 C Source: Betts, A.K., R. Desjardins, D. Worth, S. Wang and J. Li (2014), Coupling of winter climate transitions to snow and clouds over the Prairies. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 1118-1139, doi:10.1002/2013JD021168.
  • 9. 9 Outline •The Earth’s global radiation budget •Anthropogenic influence on past CO2 & CH4 concentrations •Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing •Potential impact of agriculture on future climate radiative forcing •Summary •The Earth’s global radiation budget •Anthropogenic influence on past CO2 & CH4 concentrations •Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing •Potential impact of agriculture on future climate radiative forcing •Summary
  • 10. 10 Development of Anthropogenic Climate Change Hypothesis Vladimir Ivanovich Vernadsky, 1920’s, argued that living beings could collectively reshape the planet, similar to physical forces Vladimir Ivanovich Vernadsky, 1920’s, argued that living beings could collectively reshape the planet, similar to physical forces Guy Stewart Callandar, 1938, linked increasing surface temperature between 1890 and 1938 to increasing atmospheric CO2 Guy Stewart Callandar, 1938, linked increasing surface temperature between 1890 and 1938 to increasing atmospheric CO2 Svante Arrhenius, 1896, argued that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 could bring about a global increase in temperature amounting to 5-6 ºC Svante Arrhenius, 1896, argued that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 could bring about a global increase in temperature amounting to 5-6 ºC John Tyndall, 1859, discovered the absorptive properties of water vapour and carbon dioxide John Tyndall, 1859, discovered the absorptive properties of water vapour and carbon dioxide
  • 11. 11 Source: Ruddiman (2003) Prehistoric Trend in Atmospheric CH4 Shows Evidence of Anthropogenic Influence Historic trend in atmospheric CH4 concentration and insolation at 30 ºN, consistent with orbital monsoon theory Historic trend in atmospheric CH4 concentration and insolation at 30 ºN, consistent with orbital monsoon theory In the past 7,500 years, this coherent relationship broke down, and insolation decreased towards a minima, whereas CH4 increased. Ruddiman (2003) postulated that this anomalous increase in CH4 is related to the development of ‘wet rice’ farming in China and India In the past 7,500 years, this coherent relationship broke down, and insolation decreased towards a minima, whereas CH4 increased. Ruddiman (2003) postulated that this anomalous increase in CH4 is related to the development of ‘wet rice’ farming in China and India 250 ppb increase in CH4 attributed to early rice farming 250 ppb increase in CH4 attributed to early rice farming
  • 13. 13 Prehistoric Trend in Atmospheric CO2 Shows Evidence of Anthropogenic Influence Source: Ruddiman (2003) An anomalous increase of 40 ppm in the historic atmospheric CO2 concentration was observed. An anomalous increase of 40 ppm in the historic atmospheric CO2 concentration was observed. Natural explanations for the increase in CO2 such as natural biomass loss and a change in ocean carbonate chemistry were refuted and it was argued that forest clearance in Eurasia accounted for the anomalous increase in CO2 concentration (224- 245 Gt C). Natural explanations for the increase in CO2 such as natural biomass loss and a change in ocean carbonate chemistry were refuted and it was argued that forest clearance in Eurasia accounted for the anomalous increase in CO2 concentration (224- 245 Gt C).
  • 15. 15 Outline •The Earth’s global radiation budget •Anthropogenic influence on past CO2 & CH4 concentrations •Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing •Potential impact of agriculture on future radiative forcing •Summary •The Earth’s global radiation budget •Anthropogenic influence on past CO2 & CH4 concentrations •Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing •Potential impact of agriculture on future radiative forcing •Summary
  • 16. 16 Climate Forcing Greenhouse gases Biogeochemical impact Land-use change Biogeophysical impact Source: IPCC (2013)
  • 17. 17 Radiative forcing and albedo In recognition of the linkage between climate and surface albedo, the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC identified change in surface albedo, associated with land use change, among the key factors influencing climate radiative forcing, amounting to about -0.15 Wm-2 . The IPCC also identified the radiative forcing of albedo due to land use change as having a low level of scientific understanding. In recognition of the linkage between climate and surface albedo, the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC identified change in surface albedo, associated with land use change, among the key factors influencing climate radiative forcing, amounting to about -0.15 Wm-2 . The IPCC also identified the radiative forcing of albedo due to land use change as having a low level of scientific understanding.
  • 18. 18 1950 - “natural” 1950 forcing relative to “natural” global mean: -0.18 Wm-2 Global Change in Albedo due to Land-Use Change Source: Betts et al. (2007) 1990 - “natural” 1990 forcing relative to “natural” global mean: -0.24 Wm-2 As a result of the land use change, northern mid-latitude agricultural regions are simulated to be about 1-2 ºC cooler in winter and spring as compared to the their natural state. As a result of the land use change, northern mid-latitude agricultural regions are simulated to be about 1-2 ºC cooler in winter and spring as compared to the their natural state.
  • 19. 19 Differences in net radiation between forest and grasslands Conifer – Grass: Rnet Mean annual difference = 14 Wm-2 Deciduous – Grass: Rnet Mean annual difference = 2 Wm-2 Source: Betts, Desjardins et al. 2007
  • 21. Atmosphere Animals Rice Fossil FuelPlants Waste Soil CO2 CO2 CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CH4 CH4 CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CH4 N2O Agricultural GHG Emissions
  • 22. 22 Contribution of Agriculture to GHG Concentration Agricultural lands occupy 37% of the earth’s land surface Agriculture accounts for 52 and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions- It can be a source or sink of carbon dioxide Agricultural lands occupy 37% of the earth’s land surface Agriculture accounts for 52 and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions- It can be a source or sink of carbon dioxide Global Direct farming activities 13-15% of Global GHG Emissions Direct farming activities + land use change 18-32% of Global GHG Emissions Source: US EPA (2006); FAO (2006); Bellarby et al (2008)
  • 23. Global GHG emissions • It is estimated that between 1750 to 1970 emissions of CO2 from agricultural soils are about equal to the fossil fuel emissions during that time • Current global GHG emissions are about 49 Gt CO2e y-1 , 74% of which are CO2, 16% CH4 and 10% N2O • CO2concentration is increasing at 2 ppmv y-1 that is 6 Pg C y-1 or 6 Gt C y-1 or 22 Gt CO2 y-1 23
  • 24. 24 Impact of Present-Day Agriculture on Deforestation • Forests account for 25% of the land area 75% of C in vegetation and 40% of carbon in soil • Deforestation produces 5.9 Gt CO2 y-1 , 17% of annual anthropogenic GHG emissions • CO2 is released from organic matter decomposition where soil C is metabolized by soil microorganisms to CH4 and CO2 and is released to the atmosphere. • Tropical deforestation takes place mainly for large-scale agriculture
  • 25. Soil C Change in Agricultural Soils (Lal 2003) • Area of arable land 1,369 Mha • Permanent pasture 3,460 Mha • Permanent crops 132 Mha • Most croplands have lost 30 – 40 Mg C/ha • It is estimated that agricultural soils have lost 66-90 Pg C • Global soil C sequestration potential 0.4 - 0.8 Pg C y-1 • Potential 30-60 Pg C over the next 25-50 years 25
  • 26. Anthropogenic Global Methane Sources- Beneficial Microbes (2010) Source: Global Carbon Project 2013; Figure based on Kirschke et al. 2013 Juniper, T. 2013 What has nature ever done for us? Profile books, 324pp.
  • 27. Source: IPCC 2007 Anthropogenic Global Sources of Nitrous oxide
  • 28. • Decay of organic matter by microbes in soil release reactive N • Biological N fixation- N fixing bacteria into reactive N • Application of inorganic fertilizer 28 Sources of Nitrous Oxide
  • 29. Substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emission intensities of Canadian agricultural products 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 GHGemissionsperkilogramofmilkorliveweight producedordozeneggs 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: Dyer et al (2008); Vergé et al (2008); Vergé et al (2009a; 2009b) Milk -26% Beef -56% Pork -56% Poultry - broiler meat -19% Poultry - eggs -8% Improved breeds, adoption of BMPs such as no-tillage and increased feeding of leguminous crops have led to a reduction in emissions intensity dairy, beef and pork production in Canada. Improved breeds, adoption of BMPs such as no-tillage and increased feeding of leguminous crops have led to a reduction in emissions intensity dairy, beef and pork production in Canada.
  • 30. Carbon footprint of animal products per unit of protein Source: Dyer, Desjardins et al (2010) One of the primary functions of animal products is to provide protein for growth. Therefore, expressing the carbon footprint per unit of protein is one way to compare emissions between animal types.
  • 32. 32 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Perennial crops Summerfallow No-Tillage Area(millionha) 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Perennial crops Summerfallow No-Tillage Area(millionha) 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 What is the impact of a decrease in area under summerfallow on the air temperature on the Canadian Prairies? What is the impact of a decrease in area under summerfallow on the air temperature on the Canadian Prairies? Trends in Agricultural Management Practices in Canada
  • 33. 33 Rn Bare Soil Vegetated Surface Rn zi=2-3 km zi=0.5 km G G H LE H LE Effects of Leaving the Land Surface Bare for a Summer on the Energy Budget Source: Gameda et al. (2007) Bare Soil Vegetated LE - + H + - G + - zi + -
  • 34. 34 Impact of Summerfallow on Climate: Mean Daily Maimum Air Temperature 1951-1975: Increasing levels of summerfallow 8.7 Mha-11.4 Mha T max increasing over time 1951-1975: Increasing levels of summerfallow 8.7 Mha-11.4 Mha T max increasing over time 1976-2000: Declining levels of summerfallow 11.4 Mha-5.4 Mha T max decreasing over time 1976-2000: Declining levels of summerfallow 11.4 Mha-5.4 Mha T max decreasing over time Source: Gameda et al 2007 On the Canadian prairies, the elimination of 6 Mha of summerfallow has been associated with a period of time when June 15 to July 15 mean daily maximum temperature has decreased, likely due to a decrease in the sensible heat flux and an increase in evapotranspiration. This analysis shows that reduction of summer fallowing has caused a reduction in maximum air temperature of 1.7 C per decade during the mid- June to mid-July period. On the Canadian prairies, the elimination of 6 Mha of summerfallow has been associated with a period of time when June 15 to July 15 mean daily maximum temperature has decreased, likely due to a decrease in the sensible heat flux and an increase in evapotranspiration. This analysis shows that reduction of summer fallowing has caused a reduction in maximum air temperature of 1.7 C per decade during the mid- June to mid-July period.
  • 35. 35 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Perennial crops Summerfallow No-Tillage Area(millionha) 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Perennial crops Summerfallow No-Tillage Area(millionha) 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 What are the combined biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts of a decrease in area of summerfallow in the Canadian Prairies in terms of climate radiative forcing? What are the combined biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts of a decrease in area of summerfallow in the Canadian Prairies in terms of climate radiative forcing? Trends in Agricultural Management Practices in Canada
  • 36. 36 How to calculate net reflected shortwave radiation? Absorbed shortwave radiation in Wm−2 (a) is estimated as:Absorbed shortwave radiation in Wm−2 (a) is estimated as: )()1( IIa αβα +−= aINRS −= where I is the incoming shortwave flux (Wm−2 ), α is the albedo, and β is a coefficient to correct for the atmospheric absorption of reflected short wave flux The net reflected shortwave radiation can be calculated as follows: where I is the incoming shortwave flux (Wm−2 ), α is the albedo, and β is a coefficient to correct for the atmospheric absorption of reflected short wave flux The net reflected shortwave radiation can be calculated as follows: where NRS is the net reflected shortwave radiation (Wm−2 )where NRS is the net reflected shortwave radiation (Wm−2 )
  • 37. 37 where Ar is the area of the region of interest and Ae is the Earth’s surface area, and subscript 1 and 2 refers to the different land cover types The equivalent radiative forcing of carbon can be determined using following equation (Betts 2000) where Ar is the area of the region of interest and Ae is the Earth’s surface area, and subscript 1 and 2 refers to the different land cover types The equivalent radiative forcing of carbon can be determined using following equation (Betts 2000) erR AANRSNRS /)( 21 −=δ where C0 is the atmospheric CO2 concentration (397 ppmv), and ΔC is the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration where C0 is the atmospheric CO2 concentration (397 ppmv), and ΔC is the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration )/1(35.5 0CCLnRFC ∆+= The differences in reflected shortwave radiation for various land cover types affect the local radiation budget. This effect on global radiative forcing can be estimated for a given region of interest by The differences in reflected shortwave radiation for various land cover types affect the local radiation budget. This effect on global radiative forcing can be estimated for a given region of interest by How is a change in soil carbon related to a change in albedo?
  • 38. 38 For the reduction in summerfallowing in the province of Saskatchewan for the period between 1971 and 2006, we estimated a net radiative forcing of -0.160 mWm−2 of which 67% of this effect was due to a change in albedo and the remainder to soil C sequestration
  • 39. 39 Agricultural Practice Biogeophysical effect Biogeochemical effect Net Effect Reduced tillage + _ _ _ − − Afforestation + + _ _ _ _ Deforestation − − + + + + Plant forage crops − − − − − Irrigation − − + − Biochar + − − − Leaf albedo bio- geoengineering − − − − Biofuel − − + − Synchronize N availability to N use by crops − − − − Reduced fallow - -- − − − − − Plant fall crops − − − − Leave long stubble for snow trapping − − − − Biophysical and Biochemical Forcing of Agricultural Management Practices
  • 40. 40 Outline •The Earth’s global radiation budget •Anthropogenic influence on past GHG concentration •Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing •Potential impact of agriculture on future radiative forcing •Summary •The Earth’s global radiation budget •Anthropogenic influence on past GHG concentration •Impact of land use on climate radiative forcing •Potential impact of agriculture on future radiative forcing •Summary
  • 41. Source: Lal (2003); Verge et al. 2007 Carbon Sequestration in Agricultural Soils Carbon sequestration is the process of removing carbon from the atmosphere and depositing it in a reservoir. Global potential for carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is estimated at 30-60 Pg C over the next 50 years, through the adoption of BMPs and restoration of degraded soils. Impact of climate change Carbon sequestration is the process of removing carbon from the atmosphere and depositing it in a reservoir. Global potential for carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is estimated at 30-60 Pg C over the next 50 years, through the adoption of BMPs and restoration of degraded soils. Impact of climate change However, carbon sequestration is dependent upon the continuation of the management practice and the climatic conditions under which it was sequestered. Carbon sequestration is a reversible process. However, carbon sequestration is dependent upon the continuation of the management practice and the climatic conditions under which it was sequestered. Carbon sequestration is a reversible process. Recent estimates of projected climate change suggest that in the future Canadian agricultural soils could be a source of carbon, amounting to 53- 160 Mt C, depending on the climate change scenario. Recent estimates of projected climate change suggest that in the future Canadian agricultural soils could be a source of carbon, amounting to 53- 160 Mt C, depending on the climate change scenario.
  • 42. 42 Biodigestion of Animal Wastes and Crop Residues Current estimates of the maximum annual methane production potential from the biodigestion of animal manure in Canada (≈ 2.3 × 109 m3 ) have the energetic equivalent of 1% of annual fossil energy demand. Current estimates of the maximum annual methane production potential from the biodigestion of animal manure in Canada (≈ 2.3 × 109 m3 ) have the energetic equivalent of 1% of annual fossil energy demand. Source: Levin et al. (2007) However, current technical and economic factors limit the total energy production from these sources to much less than the maximum potential. However, current technical and economic factors limit the total energy production from these sources to much less than the maximum potential.
  • 43. 43 Bioenergy Thousands of biodigesters are being built all over the world. Thousands of biodigesters are being built all over the world. Is this a way to ensure the sustainability of agricultural production? Is this a way to ensure the sustainability of agricultural production?
  • 44. 44 Production of Ethanol from Corn Ethanol production, especially from corn, has received considerable attention in the popular and scientific literature. Ethanol production, especially from corn, has received considerable attention in the popular and scientific literature. Current life cycle analysis estimates that corn ethanol production reduces GHG emissions by ≈ 10-20%, relative to conventional gasoline. However, if emissions from land use change are considered (which is necessary to produce food that has been diverted for fuel), emissions are greater for ethanol production than for gasoline production. Current life cycle analysis estimates that corn ethanol production reduces GHG emissions by ≈ 10-20%, relative to conventional gasoline. However, if emissions from land use change are considered (which is necessary to produce food that has been diverted for fuel), emissions are greater for ethanol production than for gasoline production. Source: Farrell et al. (2006); Searchinger et al. (2008) Development of cellulosic ethanol offers the potential to significantly reduce GHG emissions as compared to gasoline. Development of cellulosic ethanol offers the potential to significantly reduce GHG emissions as compared to gasoline.
  • 45. 45 Bioenergy •Low carbon energy biofuels, bioenergy e.g. ethanol biofuel production in the US •Low carbon energy biofuels, bioenergy e.g. ethanol biofuel production in the US The target in the US for 2020 is 144 billion liters/year, 60% is to come from non-grain sources. This means that 48 Mha will be required. This should cause the most rapid change in land use in US history. The target in the US for 2020 is 144 billion liters/year, 60% is to come from non-grain sources. This means that 48 Mha will be required. This should cause the most rapid change in land use in US history. Sinclair 2009
  • 46. The meat consumption in the world in 2010 46 Consumption of meat in 2010: 286.2 million tonnes Consumption rate has increased constantly for 50 years: 2.3% for the past decade Consumption of meat in 2010: 286.2 million tonnes Consumption rate has increased constantly for 50 years: 2.3% for the past decade Beef Pork Poultry FranceAgrimer 2011, FAO 2010 South America Central America North America Global repartition (%) Europe Asia OceaniaAfrica
  • 47. Substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emission intensities of Canadian agricultural products 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 GHGemissionsperkilogramofliveweight produced 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: Dyer et al (2008); Vergé et al (2008); Vergé et al (2009a; 2009b) Beef -56% Pork -56% Poultry - broiler meat -19%
  • 48. Change in beef, pork and poultry consumption 48 Source: FAO, 2010 Considering the GHG emissions for each type of meat production, the GHG emissions in 2010 were about 3.7 Gt CO2e. By 2040 the GHG emissions due to meat consumption would be about 5.1 Gt CO2e if the growth rate remains the same. Hence, even if the beef consumption is decreasing, it still does not offset the increase in GHG emissions due to the predicted increase in population. Considering the GHG emissions for each type of meat production, the GHG emissions in 2010 were about 3.7 Gt CO2e. By 2040 the GHG emissions due to meat consumption would be about 5.1 Gt CO2e if the growth rate remains the same. Hence, even if the beef consumption is decreasing, it still does not offset the increase in GHG emissions due to the predicted increase in population.
  • 49. 49 Crop Bioengineering Recent research has estimated that if the albedo of global croplands could be increased by 0.04, then a global cooling of approximately 0.1 ºC could be achieved, with regional cooling in the continental northern hemisphere of 1 ºC during the summer months. Recent research has estimated that if the albedo of global croplands could be increased by 0.04, then a global cooling of approximately 0.1 ºC could be achieved, with regional cooling in the continental northern hemisphere of 1 ºC during the summer months. Source: Ridgwell et al. (2009)
  • 50. 50 How can we assess the impact of agricultural land management on biophysical forcing? 1. Identify fields with known crop type and management, estimate annual albedo from satellite imagery and scale up to national scale using crop/management distribution 1. Identify fields with known crop type and management, estimate annual albedo from satellite imagery and scale up to national scale using crop/management distribution Canada Spring wheat, no till Barley, min till Summerfallow
  • 51. Synchronizing the Release of Fertilizer-N with Crop Uptake Improving nitrogen use efficiency by crops (Use Chemical Signals from Root Exudates for N release on crop demand C. Monreal) 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 Crop N uptake INF-N release 0 25 50 100 75 Growing season (# of days) CropNUptake(kgN/ha/day) Rootexudatecontent(micrograms/ml) Root exudate
  • 52. 52 Microorganisms and climate change It is unclear whether changes in microbial processes lead to a net positive or negative feedback for GHG emissions. It is unclear whether changes in microbial processes lead to a net positive or negative feedback for GHG emissions. •Microbial processes have a central role in the global fluxes of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide and are likely to respond rapidly to climate change. •There are millions of microorganisms (nematodes, microbes, etc.) in every teaspoonful of soil. It is important to understand the mechanisms by which they regulate GHG fluxes from agricultural sources. •It is a tantalizing prospect for mitigating climate change for the future. •Microbial processes have a central role in the global fluxes of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide and are likely to respond rapidly to climate change. •There are millions of microorganisms (nematodes, microbes, etc.) in every teaspoonful of soil. It is important to understand the mechanisms by which they regulate GHG fluxes from agricultural sources. •It is a tantalizing prospect for mitigating climate change for the future.
  • 53. 53 Key Points •Agriculture is significantly altering the Earth’s energy budget and climate in a variety of ways •Because of the large spatial extent and intensive management, agriculture has contributed and continues to contribute to climate change through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical mechanisms •The main role of agriculture is to produce food and presently food production accounts for about 15-20% of the GHG emissions •The potential exist in agriculture to reduce GHG emissions and increase soil carbon sequestration •The potential impact of soil C sequestration is large but finite and climate change is likely to make sequestering C very difficult •Microorganisms play a very important role in the biogeochemical mecanisms • Can mankind harness microbial process to help manage climate change? •Agriculture is significantly altering the Earth’s energy budget and climate in a variety of ways •Because of the large spatial extent and intensive management, agriculture has contributed and continues to contribute to climate change through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical mechanisms •The main role of agriculture is to produce food and presently food production accounts for about 15-20% of the GHG emissions •The potential exist in agriculture to reduce GHG emissions and increase soil carbon sequestration •The potential impact of soil C sequestration is large but finite and climate change is likely to make sequestering C very difficult •Microorganisms play a very important role in the biogeochemical mecanisms • Can mankind harness microbial process to help manage climate change?
  • 54. 54 References Betts, A. K., Desjardins, R. L. and D. Worth 2007. Impact of agriculture, forest and cloud feedback on the surface energy budget in BOREAS. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142:156-169. Betts, R. A., Falloon, P. D., Goldewijk, K. K. and N. Ramankutty. 2007. Biogeophysical effects of land use on climate: Model simulations of radiative forcing and large-scale temperature change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142:216-233. Betts, A.K., R. Desjardins, D. Worth, S. Wang and J. Li 2014. Coupling of winter climate transitions to snow and clouds over the Prairies. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 1118-1139, doi:10.1002/2013JD021168. Desjardins, R.L., J.C. Keng and K. Haugen-Kozyra. (editors) 1999. Proceedings on the international workshop on reducing nitrous oxide emissions from agroecosystems. Banff, Alberta, Mar 3-5. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Research Branch; Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Conservation and Development Branch. 256 pp. Desjardins, R.L., Sivakumar, M.V.K. and C. de Kimpe 2007. The contribution of agriculture to the state of climate: Workshop summary and recommendations. Agric. and Forest Meteorology. 142: 314-324. Desjardins, R.L. 2010. The impact of agriculture on climate change. In the proceedings of the North American Biotechnology Conference (NABC) 21. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. pp 29- 39. Dyer, J.A., X.P.C. Vergé, R.L. Desjardins and D.E. Worth 2010. The protein-based GHG emission intensity for livestock products in Canada. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture. 34(6):618-629. Doi:10.1080/10440046.2010.493376. Gameda, S., Qian, B., Campbell, C. and R.L. Desjardins 2007. Climatic trends associated with summerfallow in the Canadian Prairies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142:170-185. Hutchinson, J.J., Campbell, C.A., and R.L. Desjardins 2007. Some perspectives on carbon sequestration in agriculture. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142: 288- 302. Juniper, T. 2013. What has nature ever done for us? Profile books, 324pp. Betts, A. K., Desjardins, R. L. and D. Worth 2007. Impact of agriculture, forest and cloud feedback on the surface energy budget in BOREAS. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142:156-169. Betts, R. A., Falloon, P. D., Goldewijk, K. K. and N. Ramankutty. 2007. Biogeophysical effects of land use on climate: Model simulations of radiative forcing and large-scale temperature change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142:216-233. Betts, A.K., R. Desjardins, D. Worth, S. Wang and J. Li 2014. Coupling of winter climate transitions to snow and clouds over the Prairies. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 1118-1139, doi:10.1002/2013JD021168. Desjardins, R.L., J.C. Keng and K. Haugen-Kozyra. (editors) 1999. Proceedings on the international workshop on reducing nitrous oxide emissions from agroecosystems. Banff, Alberta, Mar 3-5. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Research Branch; Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Conservation and Development Branch. 256 pp. Desjardins, R.L., Sivakumar, M.V.K. and C. de Kimpe 2007. The contribution of agriculture to the state of climate: Workshop summary and recommendations. Agric. and Forest Meteorology. 142: 314-324. Desjardins, R.L. 2010. The impact of agriculture on climate change. In the proceedings of the North American Biotechnology Conference (NABC) 21. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. pp 29- 39. Dyer, J.A., X.P.C. Vergé, R.L. Desjardins and D.E. Worth 2010. The protein-based GHG emission intensity for livestock products in Canada. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture. 34(6):618-629. Doi:10.1080/10440046.2010.493376. Gameda, S., Qian, B., Campbell, C. and R.L. Desjardins 2007. Climatic trends associated with summerfallow in the Canadian Prairies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142:170-185. Hutchinson, J.J., Campbell, C.A., and R.L. Desjardins 2007. Some perspectives on carbon sequestration in agriculture. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142: 288- 302. Juniper, T. 2013. What has nature ever done for us? Profile books, 324pp.
  • 55. 55 References Lal, R. 2003. Global potential of soil carbon sequestration to mitigate the greenhouse effect. Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences 22:151-184. Ridgwell, A., Singarayer, J. S., Hetherington, A. M. and P.J. Valdes 2009. Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo bio-geoengineering. Current Biology 19:146-150. Ruddiman, W. F. 2003. The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago. Climatic Change 61:261-293. Searchinger, T., Heimlick, R., Houghton, R. A., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., Tokgoz, S., Hayes, D. and T. H. Yu 2008. Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change. Science 319:1238-1240. Sinclair, T. R. 2009. Taking measure of biofuel limits. American Scientist 97.5: 400-407. Smith, W. N., Grant, B. B., Desjardins, R. L., Qian, B., Hutchinson, J. J. and S. Gameda 2009. Potential impact of climate change on carbon in agricultural soils in Canada 2000-2099. Climatic Change 93:319-333. Stehfest, E., Bouwman, L., van Vuuren, D. P., den Elzen, M. G. J., Eickhout, B. and Kabat, P. 2009. Climate benefits of changing diet. Climatic Change In press:DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9534-6. Stephens, G.L.. Campbell, G.G. and Vonder Haar, T.H. 2012. Earth radiation budgets, J, . Geophys. Res., 86(C10),9739- 9760. Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T. and Kiehl, J. 2009. Earth's global energy budget. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90(3):311-323. Vergé, X.P.C., de Kimpe, C. and R.L. Desjardins, 2007. Agricultural production, greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142: 255- 269. Vergé, X.P.C., Dyer, J.A., Desjardins, R.L., and Worth, D. 2008. Greenhouse gas emissions from the Canadian Beef Industry. Agricultural Systems. 98 (2): 126-134. Vergé, X.P.C., Dyer, J.A., Worth, D.E., Smith, W.N., Desjardins, R.L., and B.G. McConkey. 2012. A greenhouse gas and soil carbon model for estimating the carbon footprint of livestock production in Canada. Animals, 2: 437-454; doi:10.3390/ani2030437. Lal, R. 2003. Global potential of soil carbon sequestration to mitigate the greenhouse effect. Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences 22:151-184. Ridgwell, A., Singarayer, J. S., Hetherington, A. M. and P.J. Valdes 2009. Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo bio-geoengineering. Current Biology 19:146-150. Ruddiman, W. F. 2003. The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago. Climatic Change 61:261-293. Searchinger, T., Heimlick, R., Houghton, R. A., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., Tokgoz, S., Hayes, D. and T. H. Yu 2008. Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change. Science 319:1238-1240. Sinclair, T. R. 2009. Taking measure of biofuel limits. American Scientist 97.5: 400-407. Smith, W. N., Grant, B. B., Desjardins, R. L., Qian, B., Hutchinson, J. J. and S. Gameda 2009. Potential impact of climate change on carbon in agricultural soils in Canada 2000-2099. Climatic Change 93:319-333. Stehfest, E., Bouwman, L., van Vuuren, D. P., den Elzen, M. G. J., Eickhout, B. and Kabat, P. 2009. Climate benefits of changing diet. Climatic Change In press:DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9534-6. Stephens, G.L.. Campbell, G.G. and Vonder Haar, T.H. 2012. Earth radiation budgets, J, . Geophys. Res., 86(C10),9739- 9760. Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T. and Kiehl, J. 2009. Earth's global energy budget. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90(3):311-323. Vergé, X.P.C., de Kimpe, C. and R.L. Desjardins, 2007. Agricultural production, greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142: 255- 269. Vergé, X.P.C., Dyer, J.A., Desjardins, R.L., and Worth, D. 2008. Greenhouse gas emissions from the Canadian Beef Industry. Agricultural Systems. 98 (2): 126-134. Vergé, X.P.C., Dyer, J.A., Worth, D.E., Smith, W.N., Desjardins, R.L., and B.G. McConkey. 2012. A greenhouse gas and soil carbon model for estimating the carbon footprint of livestock production in Canada. Animals, 2: 437-454; doi:10.3390/ani2030437.

Editor's Notes

  1. In Canada, poultry production emits only 47% as much GHG per unit of LW as pork and only 10% as beef.
  2. Difference between the countries: the growth has stopped in developed countries and is increasing by about 1.4% in the developing countries. Beef: constant or decreasing Pork: Increasing in Asia (the total meat consumption has increased by 4% during the last decades), and in some European countries Poultry: Increasing with a rate of more than 2% each year.