1. 3 M’s that Move the Currency Market Boris Schlossberg Director of Currency Research

3. The 3 M’s Macro Micro Monetary Policy

6. Correlation: SP500 & USD/JPY Blue Line = USD/JPY Red Line = SP500 Weekly Chart Source: GFT Source: DealBook 360

7. Correlation: SP500 & USD/JPY Blue Line = USD/JPY Red Line = SP500 Hourly Chart Source: DealBook 360

10. Gold AUD/USD and Gold: Ignore the divergence at your own risk? Source: DealBook 360

13. Labor Data – US Unemployment Rate Source: Bloomberg

14. Labor Data – EZ Unemployment Rate Source: Bloomberg

15. Source: Bloomberg Labor Data: German Unemployment Rolls

16. ISM and PMI Surveys Measure Health of Business > 50 Generally Means Expansion < 50 Suggests Contraction ISM/PMI – State of Business

17. Source: Bloomberg Production Data – US Manufacturing ISM

18. Source: Bloomberg Production Data – US Services ISM

19. Source: Bloomberg Production Data – EZ Composite PMI

21. Source: Bloomberg US Headline CPI

22. Source: GFT CPI vs Oil

23. Source: Bloomberg EZ Headline CPI

24. Sentiment Can Create Its Own Reality Cautionary attitude could lead to retrenchment in spending and ultimately deceleration of growth. The Power of Sentiment

25. Source: Bloomberg US U of Mich

26. German IFO Source: Bloomberg

28. Ben Bernanke The Academic Believes in Transparency Has Only Presided Over Rate Cuts

29. Jean Claude Trichet The Godfather  Price Stability Drives Policy  Too inflexible?

30. Masaaki Shirakawa The Conformist  Hemmed in by Stagnant Economy  Rising Yen

31. Mervyn King The Gentleman Banker Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place

32. Jean Pierre Roth The Conservative Swiss

33. Mark Carney The Newcomer

34. Glenn Stevens The Tough Veteran

35. Allan Bollard The Hawk

36. Macro Trade Example Macro Trade Dow drops, EUR/JPY follows Source: DealBook 360

37. Micro Trade Example Micro Trade EZ Trade Balance: -6.4B vs. -5.8 forecast Source: DealBook 360

38. Monetary Policy Trade Example Monetary Policy Trade RBA Cuts Rate by 100 bp Source: DealBook 360