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US Dollar Outlook Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg Directors of Currency Research
Disclaimer GFT refers to Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. and all of its divisions, branches and subsidiaries, including Global Forex Trading, GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. and GFT Global Markets UK Limited. In the United Kingdom, GFT Global Markets UK Limited is authorized and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful. Trading of foreign exchange contracts, contracts for differences, derivatives and other investment products which are leveraged, can carry a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more than the initial investment.  In Australia, GFT means Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. ARBN 103 508 461, AFS License 226625. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available at www.gft.com.au. You should read and consider the PDS before making any decision to deal in GFT products. This [advertisement] is published by GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. (Company Registration Number 200717665N) in Singapore for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any investment product or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such investment product. Ā© 2009 Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. All rights reserved. DISCLAIMER: This presentation and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this presentation for your general information. This presentation and its information does not take into account any particular individualā€™s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this presentation or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this presentation. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.   CD08BKU.004.021809 BK
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],BK
The US Dollar Skyrocketing since July 2008  K
EUR/USD K Source: Dealbook
GBP/USD K Source: Dealbook
EUR/JPY K Source: Dealbook
GBP/JPY K Source: Dealbook
USD/JPY K Source: Dealbook
Relative Performance - USD K Source: Bloomberg
Relative Performance - JPY K Revenge of the Low Yielders Source: Bloomberg
Volatility Has Surged  K Source: Bloomberg
PPP - CPI K Source: Bloomberg
What happened? B
ZIRP The Path Towards Global ZIRP B Source: GFT
ZIRP Why? B Because price levels  are collapsing.
Oil vs. CPI B Source: GFT What are the Drivers?
CPI Case-Shiller Used Instead of Owners Equivalent Rent  source http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ B Source: GFT What are the Drivers?
What are the Drivers? Yield No Longer Matters B The only question for FX: who will rebound first?
Recession vs. Depression Recession:  When your neighbor loses his job  Depression:  When you lose your job B
Recession vs. Depression B ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],US Economy
Recession vs. Depression B ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],US Economy
How long do recessions last? B
Protectionism Buy American Bill: Allows companies to buy only  US-manufactured steel and iron Source: berklube.com US Economy
Can we spend our way out of a recession? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],US Economy
US Economy Can we spend our way out of a recession? Source: Bianco Research / East Coast Economics
[object Object],[object Object],Agencies Have Government Backing Source: Brad Setser China
China Growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Ramifications for the US Dollar ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Bloomberg
Euro Stress Is Trichet too slow? Source: DealBook
Euro Stress Part of dollarā€™s strength is due to the fact that Euro is losing viability. Can a currency without a country survive a steep economic downturn?
UK Mess The hedge fund economy blows upā€¦ Source: Bloomberg
UK Mess ā€¦ but maybe itā€™s hit bottom. Source: Bloomberg
UK Mess Has EUR/GBP topped? Source: Dealbook
No Yen For Japan
No Yen For Japan Industrial Production Falls at Fastest Pace Since Great Depression Source: Bloomberg
No Yen For Japan Toxic combination of strong Yen and collapsing global demand. Will BOJ Intervene? Will it Work?
No Yen For Japan Source: Dealbook
Carry Trades Is Mrs. Watanabe turning short? Source: Tokyo Financial Exchange
[object Object],Recovery
[object Object]
EUR/USD Up-Down? UP DOWN EZ economy stabilizes as North/South nations create a coordinated plan of action and faith in the currency is restored. US economy responds to stimulus, first to rebound from global recession. US Treasury Auction fails as investors refuse to absorb any more US Sovereign debt capital flight ensues. EZ union nears  collapse as economic stress creates political backlash, member sovereign credits come under assault.  Global capita markets rally, risk assumption returns as doomsday fears dissipate. Dollar remains repository of safe haven funds as  global economy remains mired in a protracted  recession.
GBP/USD Up-Down? UP DOWN UK economy stabilizes ā€“ PMIā€™s a clue? Quick monetary and fiscal response, lower pound yield positive results. UK economy remains stuck at very low production rates as demand is curbed due to persistently high jobless rate and growing debt burdens.  Global capital markets stage a rally. London resumes its role as the financial intermediary to the world. Global capital markets remain bearish ā€“ BOTH equities and fixed income continue to fall. Capital leaves the dollar on US financial concerns. High leverage of UK consumers and massive issuance of sovereign debt trigger capital flight.
USD/JPY Up-Down? UP DOWN US economy bounces, Dow rises, US 2-year rates increase to 3.5% reviving demand for carry and yield. Risk Aversion reigns supreme, Dow dives to 6000 or lower.  Japanese economy recovers slightly prompting return of risk appetite. US economic fortunes do not improve, credit contraction creates massive deflation of US assets. BOJ intervenes as strong yen hurts exporters. Repatriation of Japanese funds continues unabated as world sits at ZIRP.
Questions?
Join Us! Premium Presentation Feb 23, 4:30pm ā€“ 6:00pm Strategies to Effectively Anticipate and React to Currency News *Open to new and existing GFT Clients Limited seating. Inquire at GFT Booth.
Disclaimer GFT refers to Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. and all of its divisions, branches and subsidiaries, including Global Forex Trading, GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. and GFT Global Markets UK Limited. In the United Kingdom, GFT Global Markets UK Limited is authorized and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful. Trading of foreign exchange contracts, contracts for differences, derivatives and other investment products which are leveraged, can carry a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more than the initial investment.  In Australia, GFT means Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. ARBN 103 508 461, AFS License 226625. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available at www.gft.com.au. You should read and consider the PDS before making any decision to deal in GFT products. This [advertisement] is published by GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. (Company Registration Number 200717665N) in Singapore for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any investment product or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such investment product. Ā© 2009 Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. All rights reserved. DISCLAIMER: This presentation and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this presentation for your general information. This presentation and its information does not take into account any particular individualā€™s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this presentation or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this presentation. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.  CD08BKU.004.021809 BK

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Us Dollar Outlook

  • 1. US Dollar Outlook Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg Directors of Currency Research
  • 2. Disclaimer GFT refers to Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. and all of its divisions, branches and subsidiaries, including Global Forex Trading, GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. and GFT Global Markets UK Limited. In the United Kingdom, GFT Global Markets UK Limited is authorized and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful. Trading of foreign exchange contracts, contracts for differences, derivatives and other investment products which are leveraged, can carry a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more than the initial investment. In Australia, GFT means Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. ARBN 103 508 461, AFS License 226625. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available at www.gft.com.au. You should read and consider the PDS before making any decision to deal in GFT products. This [advertisement] is published by GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. (Company Registration Number 200717665N) in Singapore for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any investment product or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such investment product. Ā© 2009 Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. All rights reserved. DISCLAIMER: This presentation and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this presentation for your general information. This presentation and its information does not take into account any particular individualā€™s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this presentation or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this presentation. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. CD08BKU.004.021809 BK
  • 3.
  • 4. The US Dollar Skyrocketing since July 2008 K
  • 5. EUR/USD K Source: Dealbook
  • 6. GBP/USD K Source: Dealbook
  • 7. EUR/JPY K Source: Dealbook
  • 8. GBP/JPY K Source: Dealbook
  • 9. USD/JPY K Source: Dealbook
  • 10. Relative Performance - USD K Source: Bloomberg
  • 11. Relative Performance - JPY K Revenge of the Low Yielders Source: Bloomberg
  • 12. Volatility Has Surged K Source: Bloomberg
  • 13. PPP - CPI K Source: Bloomberg
  • 15. ZIRP The Path Towards Global ZIRP B Source: GFT
  • 16. ZIRP Why? B Because price levels are collapsing.
  • 17. Oil vs. CPI B Source: GFT What are the Drivers?
  • 18. CPI Case-Shiller Used Instead of Owners Equivalent Rent source http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ B Source: GFT What are the Drivers?
  • 19. What are the Drivers? Yield No Longer Matters B The only question for FX: who will rebound first?
  • 20. Recession vs. Depression Recession: When your neighbor loses his job Depression: When you lose your job B
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. How long do recessions last? B
  • 24. Protectionism Buy American Bill: Allows companies to buy only US-manufactured steel and iron Source: berklube.com US Economy
  • 25.
  • 26. US Economy Can we spend our way out of a recession? Source: Bianco Research / East Coast Economics
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. Euro Stress Is Trichet too slow? Source: DealBook
  • 31. Euro Stress Part of dollarā€™s strength is due to the fact that Euro is losing viability. Can a currency without a country survive a steep economic downturn?
  • 32. UK Mess The hedge fund economy blows upā€¦ Source: Bloomberg
  • 33. UK Mess ā€¦ but maybe itā€™s hit bottom. Source: Bloomberg
  • 34. UK Mess Has EUR/GBP topped? Source: Dealbook
  • 35. No Yen For Japan
  • 36. No Yen For Japan Industrial Production Falls at Fastest Pace Since Great Depression Source: Bloomberg
  • 37. No Yen For Japan Toxic combination of strong Yen and collapsing global demand. Will BOJ Intervene? Will it Work?
  • 38. No Yen For Japan Source: Dealbook
  • 39. Carry Trades Is Mrs. Watanabe turning short? Source: Tokyo Financial Exchange
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42. EUR/USD Up-Down? UP DOWN EZ economy stabilizes as North/South nations create a coordinated plan of action and faith in the currency is restored. US economy responds to stimulus, first to rebound from global recession. US Treasury Auction fails as investors refuse to absorb any more US Sovereign debt capital flight ensues. EZ union nears collapse as economic stress creates political backlash, member sovereign credits come under assault. Global capita markets rally, risk assumption returns as doomsday fears dissipate. Dollar remains repository of safe haven funds as global economy remains mired in a protracted recession.
  • 43. GBP/USD Up-Down? UP DOWN UK economy stabilizes ā€“ PMIā€™s a clue? Quick monetary and fiscal response, lower pound yield positive results. UK economy remains stuck at very low production rates as demand is curbed due to persistently high jobless rate and growing debt burdens. Global capital markets stage a rally. London resumes its role as the financial intermediary to the world. Global capital markets remain bearish ā€“ BOTH equities and fixed income continue to fall. Capital leaves the dollar on US financial concerns. High leverage of UK consumers and massive issuance of sovereign debt trigger capital flight.
  • 44. USD/JPY Up-Down? UP DOWN US economy bounces, Dow rises, US 2-year rates increase to 3.5% reviving demand for carry and yield. Risk Aversion reigns supreme, Dow dives to 6000 or lower. Japanese economy recovers slightly prompting return of risk appetite. US economic fortunes do not improve, credit contraction creates massive deflation of US assets. BOJ intervenes as strong yen hurts exporters. Repatriation of Japanese funds continues unabated as world sits at ZIRP.
  • 46. Join Us! Premium Presentation Feb 23, 4:30pm ā€“ 6:00pm Strategies to Effectively Anticipate and React to Currency News *Open to new and existing GFT Clients Limited seating. Inquire at GFT Booth.
  • 47. Disclaimer GFT refers to Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. and all of its divisions, branches and subsidiaries, including Global Forex Trading, GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. and GFT Global Markets UK Limited. In the United Kingdom, GFT Global Markets UK Limited is authorized and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful. Trading of foreign exchange contracts, contracts for differences, derivatives and other investment products which are leveraged, can carry a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more than the initial investment. In Australia, GFT means Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. ARBN 103 508 461, AFS License 226625. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available at www.gft.com.au. You should read and consider the PDS before making any decision to deal in GFT products. This [advertisement] is published by GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. (Company Registration Number 200717665N) in Singapore for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any investment product or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such investment product. Ā© 2009 Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. All rights reserved. DISCLAIMER: This presentation and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this presentation for your general information. This presentation and its information does not take into account any particular individualā€™s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this presentation or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this presentation. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. CD08BKU.004.021809 BK

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