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An Agenda for
Economic Revival
August 2013
India
Exhibited strong economic performance in the last few years
-3.9%
0.6%
6.4%
4.1%
-2.6%
-2.8%
-3.2%
-1.9%
-2.1%
-0.8%
Italy
United Kingdom
Japan
France
United States
Germany
Russia
Brazil
India
China
-3.7%
0.9%
6.5%
4.0%
-2.4%
-2.6%
-2.7%
-1.9%
-2.3%
-0.1%
Italy
United Kingdom
Japan
France
United States
Germany
Russia
Brazil
India
China
One of the fastest growing economies in the World
Fastest growing countries (2003-12)
Average Annual GDP growth n PPP terms
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013
China
15.0%
India
5.7%Japan
5.6%
Germany
3.9%
Russia
3.0%
Brazil
2.9%
United
States
18.9%
United
Kingdom
2.8%
France
2.7%
Italy
2.2%
Others
37.4%
As a result, emerged as the 3rd
largest economy
% Share in GDP (PPP) 2012
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013
Saving & investment rates that drive economic growth are one of the highest, even amongst fastest growing economies
Savings Rate (2012) Investment Rate (2012)
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013
© Confederation of Indian Industry 1
However, last 2 years have been disappointing
2012-13 GDP growth rock bottoms to decade’s low
Pulled down primarily by industry
IIP Growth (y-o-y)Industrial GDP Growth , y-o-y% (including construction)
GDP growth sliding to 5%
Source: CSO © Confederation of Indian Industry 2
Downward Risks are Strong
Weak domestic demand drivers
Private Final Consumption Expenditure Growth (y-o-y)
Average: 7.9 Average: 7.0Average: 14.7 Average: 6.9
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Growth (y-o-y)
On the expenditure side, GDP growth restricted by both investment & consumption
Investment growth also has fallen to multi-year lows in the last two years
The largest component of GDP from demand-side-; Private final consumption expenditure growth has
nearly halved ; from average growth of 8% during pre-crisis (2004-05 to 2008-09) to 4.0% in 2012-13
Source: CSO
© Confederation of Indian Industry 3
Threat from the Twin Deficits
Current Account Deficit nears all time high Fiscal Deficits (as % of GDP)
Current account deficit (CAD) stands way higher than the sustainable levels of deficit (2.5% of GDP)
estimated by RBI
Fiscal deficit expected to fall to 4.8% of GDP in 2013-14. However, upside risks to the target persist from
lower GDP impacting tax collections and tepid macro-environment putting the ambitious disinvestment
target at risk
RE: revised estimates, BE: budget estimates
Source: Ministry of FinanceSource: RBI
© Confederation of Indian Industry
4
17.5 18.9 19.9 21.7 16.6 22.6
32.6
18.1
87.8 78.2
3.8
4.2 4.4 4.5
3.9
5.4
6.7
3.6
4.2
4.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
FY13
FY12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CAD(US$ billion) CAD (as a % of GDP) RHS
Looking ahead
Modest recovery on the cards
2012-13 2013-14 (F)
Real GDP factor cost (y-o-y % growth) 5.0 5.3-5.8
- Agriculture 1.9 3.0-3.5
- Industry 2.1 3.5-4.0
- Services 7.1 6.5- 7.0
WPI Inflation (y-o-y%, average) 7.3 5.5-6.0
Source: CSO F: CII Forecast
CII’s growth projections of 5.3-5.8 % in 2013-14 is based on the following assumptions:
 Mild global recovery taking place in second-half of the year
 Normal monsoons
 Government sticking to its fiscal consolidation plans
 Declining trend in commodity prices
 Continued reforms Agenda
© Confederation of Indian Industry
5
Reversing the Downturn
10 point agenda for reviving growth & investments
• Increase availability and reduce cost of capital
• Promote investments/Stimulate demand
• Implement GST
• Fiscal consolidation
• Managing current account deficit
• Managing currency volatility
• Mobilize financial savings
• Strengthen power sector
• Incentivize MSMEs
• Focus on Implementation
© Confederation of Indian Industry 6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1. Increase Availability and Reduce Cost of Capital
Reduce repo rate by 75 bps & CRR by 100 bps in the current fiscal
The need for monetary policy easing
Rising Divergence between WPI & CPI (y-o-y%)
Will provide impetus to growth from demand side
Sectoral IIP Growth (y-o-y%)
Consumption
demand
growth nearly
halved
Consumption Growth (y-o-y%)
* Revised estimates; ^ Provisional estimates
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Growth (y-o-y%)
Growth of interest rate
sensitive sectors has
decelerated
Source: CSO
Source: Office of the Economic Advisor
Source: CSO
© Confederation of Indian Industry 7
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
WPI CPI
2. Promote Investments
Create transparent and timeline oriented mechanism for 100 largest projects with a
reporting framework (Projects to include infrastructure and manufacturing)
Projects severely hit Need to improve business confidence
New Project Announcements (Rs Billion)
80% decline in the
last 5 years
Stalled/ Shelved Projects (Rs Billion) 67% increase
in the last 5
years
No. of Industrial Entrepreneur Memorandums (IEMs)Filed
Value. of IEMs Filed (Rs 000 Crore)
Implying big projects relatively worse hit
34%
decline
67%
decline
Source: CMIE, CAPEX database Source: DIPP
© Confederation of Indian Industry 8
1 • Set Up Empowered Committee of State Industries Ministers with Union
Industries Minister as a Coordinator for clearing projects
• Set Up Empowered Committee of State Industries Ministers with Union
Industries Minister as a Coordinator for clearing projects
• Introduce incentive scheme to replace government vehicles of 10-12 years
vintage to revive demand, Funds allocated for transport renewal under
JNNURM could be linked for the purpose
• Introduce incentive scheme to replace government vehicles of 10-12 years
vintage to revive demand, Funds allocated for transport renewal under
JNNURM could be linked for the purpose
• Revive the mining sector - review ban on mining, expedite clearances
through single window route; Promote contract Mining
• Revive the mining sector - review ban on mining, expedite clearances
through single window route; Promote contract Mining
• Invest public sector savings• Invest public sector savings
• Promote low cost housing• Promote low cost housing
2. Promote Investments (cont)
9
2
3
4
5
© Confederation of Indian Industry
Overall
Paying Taxes
No. of
Payments
No. of
Hours
Total Tax
Rate
Leading nations in terms of overall Paying Taxes
UAE 1 4 12 14.9
Qatar 2 4 48 11.3
Saudi Arabia 3 3 72 14.5
Hong Kong 4 3 78 23.0
Singapore 5 5 82 27.6
BRICS Nations
Brazil 156 9 2600 69.3
China 122 7 338 63.7
India 152 33 243 61.8
Russian Fed. 64 7 177 54.1
South Africa 32 9 200 33.3
Asian Developing Countries
Bangladesh 97 20 302 35.0
India 152 33 243 61.8
Indonesia 131 51 259 34.5
Nepal 114 34 326 31.5
Pakistan 162 47 560 35.3
Philippines 143 47 198 46.6
India fares poorly on the Paying Taxes indicators compiled by World
Bank and PWC in ‘Paying Taxes 2013’.
Of the 185 countries studied, India gets a rank of 152 in terms of
overall paying taxes
India’s performance is particularly poor on number of payments and
tax rate
Ease of paying taxes in select countries
(Based on ‘Paying Taxes 2013: The Global Picture’)
India falls behind on tax competitiveness GST will result in numerous benefits
3. Implement GST
India’s low tax competitiveness necessitates implementation of GST for
simplifying tax structure – Need an immediate roadmap
11
• Make India a single market
• With GST, a free flow of goods can be envisaged, making
the domestic supply chain faster, more efficient and
seamless from one end to the other
• As much as 1.5 percentage points can be added to India’s
GDP growth rate on implementation of GST
• GST would significantly boost manufacturing sector thereby
adding substantially to jobs
• Exports would also receive a fillip from a more competitive
environment
• Tax compliance would greatly improve
• This would lower administrative costs & bureaucratic
procedures as well
• Would provide an assured base for central & state revenues,
enabling better planning for inclusive growth
Source: World Bank & PWC
© Confederation of Indian Industry 10
22
33
44
55
66
4. Fiscal Consolidation
Augmenting revenues and curtailing non- productive expenditure
Meeting the target necessary for restricting fiscal deficits The way forward
Fiscal deficits as % of GDP
Fiscal deficit target put at 4.8% of GDP for 2013-14
Disinvestment Target & Achievement (Rs crore)
Actual disinvestments constantly falling short of the target
Fast track public sector disinvestment. Waiting
for the right time is infructuous
Create a policy framework for monetising the
unutilized and under-utilized assets and land
resources available with the Government and
PSUs
Unlock value from Government assets that have
turned economically unviable and cannot be
revived (like sick PSU’s)
Rationalise subsidies
Cut fertilizer subsidies ; Apply Nutrient
Based Subsidies(NBS) to urea
Provide realistic estimates of subsidies in
Budget to avoid the gap between budgeted
and revised estimates .
Expedite implementation of Kelkar Committee
recommendations
Fast track public sector disinvestment. Waiting
for the right time is infructuous
Create a policy framework for monetising the
unutilized and under-utilized assets and land
resources available with the Government and
PSUs
Unlock value from Government assets that have
turned economically unviable and cannot be
revived (like sick PSU’s)
Rationalise subsidies
Cut fertilizer subsidies ; Apply Nutrient
Based Subsidies(NBS) to urea
Provide realistic estimates of subsidies in
Budget to avoid the gap between budgeted
and revised estimates .
Expedite implementation of Kelkar Committee
recommendations
Source: Ministry of Finance
?
© Confederation of Indian Industry 11
Market diversification – Realigning focus towards non-traditional markets
and exploring opportunities in untapped markets.
Create an India trade and investment cell on the lines of UK trade and
investment (UKTI) to identify opportunities for exports
Use credit lines to these untapped markets for purchase of Indian goods.
Explore bilateral arrangements for export of Indian goods with the
countries from where India is importing energy goods to reduce the trade
deficit .(eg Sudan, Mosambique )
Improve overall manufacturing productivity and competitiveness
Strengthen Exports From SEZ :
Extend Chapter 3 benefits like FMS, FPS and Investment linked IT
deduction for units in SEZ
Extend duty draw back benefit to the exports made to SEZ units where
sales proceeds are realized in INR.
Promote value addition within the country rather than exporting basic raw
material and importing the finished product as in case of steel ,cotton
Review cotton export policy - discourage cotton exports keeping in view
the nascent boom in textile industry in India.
Create export development fund for MSMEs
Market diversification – Realigning focus towards non-traditional markets
and exploring opportunities in untapped markets.
Create an India trade and investment cell on the lines of UK trade and
investment (UKTI) to identify opportunities for exports
Use credit lines to these untapped markets for purchase of Indian goods.
Explore bilateral arrangements for export of Indian goods with the
countries from where India is importing energy goods to reduce the trade
deficit .(eg Sudan, Mosambique )
Improve overall manufacturing productivity and competitiveness
Strengthen Exports From SEZ :
Extend Chapter 3 benefits like FMS, FPS and Investment linked IT
deduction for units in SEZ
Extend duty draw back benefit to the exports made to SEZ units where
sales proceeds are realized in INR.
Promote value addition within the country rather than exporting basic raw
material and importing the finished product as in case of steel ,cotton
Review cotton export policy - discourage cotton exports keeping in view
the nascent boom in textile industry in India.
Create export development fund for MSMEs
5. Managing Current Account Deficit (CAD)
Boost exports
India’s export performance
Export growth declining
Source: RBI
CAD widens on sluggish exports Need Pro Active Steps
© Confederation of Indian Industry 12
17.5 18.9 19.9 21.7
16.6
22.6
32.6
18.1
3.8
4.2 4.4 4.5
3.9
5.4
6.7
3.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CAD (US$ billion) CAD (as a % of GDP) RHS
5. Managing Current Account Deficit (CAD)
Reduce Transaction Cost of Exports
High Transaction Cost impacting Competitiveness of Exports
© Confederation of Indian Industry 13
Recommendations for Export Related CompliancesRecommendations for Export Related Compliances
Implement recommendations of Task Force on Transaction Costs in Exports’ (2009) constituted by Ministry of
Commerce & Industry
Create Single online interface for exporters/importers to obtain Government clearances from different agencies
Expedite e-Trade project. Strengthen institutional mechanism for handling inter-ministerial trade-related automation
issues;
Explore the possibility of doing away with the requirement of submission of invoice, packing list before Customs for
export/import clearances in the EDI environment and only cases which are identified for detailed examination may be
asked to submit manual documentation on a need basis;
Explore the possibility of developing a mechanism for Large Taxpayers and Status Holders, similar to that available
in Excise and Service Tax, for payment of Customs duty on a monthly basis instead of the present of consignment-
wise payment system of customs duty;
Operating Call Centre(s) on a 24 X 7 basis for e-Trade project, through outsourcing
Recommendations for Export Related CompliancesRecommendations for Export Related Compliances
Implement recommendations of Task Force on Transaction Costs in Exports’ (2009) constituted by Ministry of
Commerce & Industry
Create Single online interface for exporters/importers to obtain Government clearances from different agencies
Expedite e-Trade project. Strengthen institutional mechanism for handling inter-ministerial trade-related automation
issues;
Explore the possibility of doing away with the requirement of submission of invoice, packing list before Customs for
export/import clearances in the EDI environment and only cases which are identified for detailed examination may be
asked to submit manual documentation on a need basis;
Explore the possibility of developing a mechanism for Large Taxpayers and Status Holders, similar to that available
in Excise and Service Tax, for payment of Customs duty on a monthly basis instead of the present of consignment-
wise payment system of customs duty;
Operating Call Centre(s) on a 24 X 7 basis for e-Trade project, through outsourcing
5. Managing Current Account Deficit (CAD)
Curtailing Avoidable Imports
Rise in imports due to inadequate domestic capacity /policy hurdles
© Confederation of Indian Industry 14
Discourage avoidable imports (like coal, iron –ore, fertilizers, etc)
Initiate steps to create adequate domestic capacity to avoid imports of
items such as electronics, mobile phones
Address import bias in policy e.g. power sector
Incentivize indigenous technology development for import substitution
Dematerialize gold
Protect Domestic small and medium industry from imports (temporarily
using anti dumping/ safeguard duty)
Discourage avoidable imports (like coal, iron –ore, fertilizers, etc)
Initiate steps to create adequate domestic capacity to avoid imports of
items such as electronics, mobile phones
Address import bias in policy e.g. power sector
Incentivize indigenous technology development for import substitution
Dematerialize gold
Protect Domestic small and medium industry from imports (temporarily
using anti dumping/ safeguard duty)
5. Financing CAD
Raise FDI limits; Ease procedural norms
© Confederation of Indian Industry 15
• Liberalise FDI norms/rules across the board. Raising caps
not enough
• Liberalise FDI norms/rules across the board. Raising caps
not enough
• Issue Sovereign Guaranteed Bonds worth USD 80 – 100
billion
• Issue Sovereign Guaranteed Bonds worth USD 80 – 100
billion
• Make the process of investing in India simpler – especially
for strategic investors, compared to portfolio investors
• Make the process of investing in India simpler – especially
for strategic investors, compared to portfolio investors
1
2
3
6. Managing Currency Volatility
• Float long term sovereign guaranteed
bonds worth $ 80-100 billion for a term
of 30 years.
• Float long term sovereign guaranteed
bonds worth $ 80-100 billion for a term
of 30 years.
• Dollar-Window for Oil Companies- The
RBI could open a dollar window for oil
companies to address their forex
requirements
• Dollar-Window for Oil Companies- The
RBI could open a dollar window for oil
companies to address their forex
requirements
• Demonetize high denomination
currency notes, encourage use of
credit cards and debit cards
• Demonetize high denomination
currency notes, encourage use of
credit cards and debit cards
© Confederation of Indian Industry
Source: RBI
Rs/US$
Rupee touched its all-time low in August 2013 Manage volatility and stabilize the Rupee
16
1
2
3
4 • Remove Short – term capital gains tax
on FIIs
• Remove Short – term capital gains tax
on FIIs
Rs/US$ (RHS)
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
63
16-Apr-11
16-Aug-11
16-Dec-11
16-Apr-12
16-Aug-12
16-Dec-12
16-Apr-13
16-Aug-13
Rs/US$ (RHS)
Declining household financial savings Need for mobilizing higher financial savings
7. Mobilize Financial Savings
Channelize savings into financial assets
Saving-investment gap widens
Household savings in physical assets on a rise
Open Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme to
individuals earning upto Rs. 15 lakhs
compared to Rs. 12 lakhs at present
Remove TDS on interest income
Channelize savings into financial assets
Launch attractive and reliable inflation
adjusted instruments which would yield
(1.5-% - 2 %) higher returns than long term
average inflation
Enhance financial literacy and investor
protection mechanisms
Open Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme to
individuals earning upto Rs. 15 lakhs
compared to Rs. 12 lakhs at present
Remove TDS on interest income
Channelize savings into financial assets
Launch attractive and reliable inflation
adjusted instruments which would yield
(1.5-% - 2 %) higher returns than long term
average inflation
Enhance financial literacy and investor
protection mechanisms
Savings as % of GDP
Savings & Investments as % of GDP
Source: CSO © Confederation of Indian Industry 17
Expedite competitive bidding of captive coal blocks
through process similar to NELP
Set up well capitalized procurer entity with partners
from CIL, financial institutions, other select players
(e.g., NTPC, MMTC) to import at scale
Reserve certain proportion of coal blocks for the Power
sector
Create either single window clearance or at least a
coordinated approach for clearances among various
Ministries to expedite monetization of allocated blocks
Provide regulatory autonomy to SEB’s ; Effect
unbundling of SEB’s into separate generation,
transmission and distribution companies
Prepare a road map for completing reforms in power
sector as per Electricity Act 2003
Expedite competitive bidding of captive coal blocks
through process similar to NELP
Set up well capitalized procurer entity with partners
from CIL, financial institutions, other select players
(e.g., NTPC, MMTC) to import at scale
Reserve certain proportion of coal blocks for the Power
sector
Create either single window clearance or at least a
coordinated approach for clearances among various
Ministries to expedite monetization of allocated blocks
Provide regulatory autonomy to SEB’s ; Effect
unbundling of SEB’s into separate generation,
transmission and distribution companies
Prepare a road map for completing reforms in power
sector as per Electricity Act 2003
Insufficient coal availability Improving power supply
Coal is the dominant source of power generation in the
country
India’s power generation capacity (Giga Watt & %) 30th
Apr 2013
Source: CEA
However, insufficient coal availability to power sector
resulting in lower Plant Load Factor
PLF of coal based plants in India
Source: CEA
© Confederation of Indian Industry
8. Strengthen Power Sector
Ensure fuel supplies to power sector; regulatory autonomy to SEBs
18
Concerns
9. Incentivize MSME
The backbone of Indian industry
Suggestions
Currently the sector suffers with multitude of problems ranging from cost of credit, technology and
competitiveness, skill and information gap to marketing and branding issues
© Confederation of Indian Industry 19
Recommendations for reviving investor confidence
10. Focus on Implementation
India’s biggest weak link is in implementation
Maintain consistent, stable and transparent tax policy;
Implement recommendations of Shome Committee on GAAR and
Retrospective Tax Amendments ; Rangachary Committee on Safe Harbor
Rules and Kelkar Committee on Fiscal Consolidation
Implement recommendations of the Administrative Reforms Commission
Implement the National Manufacturing Policy, DMIC and other Industrial
and Economic Corridors, etc within a fixed timeline
© Confederation of Indian Industry 20
1
2
3
Sector Specific RecommendationsSector Specific Recommendations
© Confederation of Indian Industry 21
Agriculture
Tackle supply-side bottlenecks
Investments in agriculture have failed to pick up in the last
3-4 years
Gross Capital Formation as % of GDP
Concerns Suggestions
‘Speedy reforms’ of Agricultural Produce Market Committees
(APMC) Act across different States along with ‘time-bound
development’ of marketing infrastructure
De-notifying Fruits , Vegetables and other perishables from the
APMC list
Strengthening legislation around contract farming and facilitate
direct marketing and producer organization led models
Land leasing Reforms - long term lease of land(>10 years)
without alienating ownership rights
Allowing Lessees to avail the incentives available to Land
owners e.g. subsidies on drip irrigation, sprinklers & all such
other benefits to improve availability of land, access to capital,
technology and inputs to farmers.
Incentivise private sector to participate in irrigation, farm
mechanization, agriculture markets, cold chains, warehousing
and research.
‘Speedy reforms’ of Agricultural Produce Market Committees
(APMC) Act across different States along with ‘time-bound
development’ of marketing infrastructure
De-notifying Fruits , Vegetables and other perishables from the
APMC list
Strengthening legislation around contract farming and facilitate
direct marketing and producer organization led models
Land leasing Reforms - long term lease of land(>10 years)
without alienating ownership rights
Allowing Lessees to avail the incentives available to Land
owners e.g. subsidies on drip irrigation, sprinklers & all such
other benefits to improve availability of land, access to capital,
technology and inputs to farmers.
Incentivise private sector to participate in irrigation, farm
mechanization, agriculture markets, cold chains, warehousing
and research.
Supply side bottlenecks resulted in increase in prices
Agricultural output & prices
Source: CSO
Source: CII calculations based on CSO data
© Confederation of Indian Industry 22
Mining
Need for energizing the sector
Mining sector contribution to GDP declining
Mining sector contribution to GDP
Concerns Suggestions
Both State and Union governments should
take steps to immediately start all legal
mining operations in the respective States
Notify and Implement the Mining Policy
Treating Exploration and Mining as separate
industrial activities as has been practiced
successfully in countries with large mineral
deposits like Canada, Australia, and South
Africa. This would encourage investments
from specialized exploration companies.
Both State and Union governments should
take steps to immediately start all legal
mining operations in the respective States
Notify and Implement the Mining Policy
Treating Exploration and Mining as separate
industrial activities as has been practiced
successfully in countries with large mineral
deposits like Canada, Australia, and South
Africa. This would encourage investments
from specialized exploration companies.
Declining mining sector growth a concern
Source: CSO
© Confederation of Indian Industry 23
3,447
10,218
16,058
16,467
23,125
21,004
18,075
8,788
4,090
2012-13*
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
1,417
3,094
4,048
5,123
5,993
4,473
4,866
3,822
2,097
2012-13*
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
Speed up approvals for delayed projects(>1000
crores) in manufacturing sector
Fast Track clearances of at lest 200 projects
worth Rs 250 crores and above in 3 months
Fast track implementation of the National
Manufacturing Policy and establishment of
National Manufacturing & Investment Zones
(NIMZs). (Facilitating early resolution of
pending issues between centre, state and line
ministries)
Facilitating conducive environment for
attracting Investment in Manufacturing
Successful pan- India implementing of Project
E-Biz in a time bound manner
Simplification and rationalization of labour laws
for promoting employment generation in
manufacturing.
Speed up approvals for delayed projects(>1000
crores) in manufacturing sector
Fast Track clearances of at lest 200 projects
worth Rs 250 crores and above in 3 months
Fast track implementation of the National
Manufacturing Policy and establishment of
National Manufacturing & Investment Zones
(NIMZs). (Facilitating early resolution of
pending issues between centre, state and line
ministries)
Facilitating conducive environment for
attracting Investment in Manufacturing
Successful pan- India implementing of Project
E-Biz in a time bound manner
Simplification and rationalization of labour laws
for promoting employment generation in
manufacturing.
Manufacturing
Stagnancy a major concern
Concerns Suggestions
14.5
14.2
14.6
15.2
16.4
16.6
15.9
15.4
15.1
15.5
15.0
15.4
15.2
15.3
15.3
16.0
16.1
15.8
16.2
16.2
15.7
15.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Agriculture Industry Manufacturing Services
Numbers denote Share of Manufacturing
Sectoral Shares in GDP
Source: CSO as reported in RBI database
Contribution of Manufacturing has stagnated
* Till Dec 2012, Source: CMIE’s CAPEX database
New Manufacturing Project Announcements
Volume (Number) Value (Rs billion crore)
New investments in manufacturing rapidly declining
24© Confederation of Indian Industry
CCI should speed up approvals for delayed
projects(>1000 crores)
Speed up implementation of Big ticket projects in rail,
road and port sectors
Set up an independent PPP Commission with authority
and jurisdiction to renegotiate terms of contract.
Fast track and stream line clearances like environment &
forest clearances, removing procedural bottlenecks, and
improving governance
Effective Dispute Resolution Mechanism
Effective Land Acquisition
Govt. to deliver at least 80% land before awarding
projects
Implement draft legislation (prepared by planning
commission) to create a new regulatory architecture for
independent functioning of sectoral regulators
CCI should speed up approvals for delayed
projects(>1000 crores)
Speed up implementation of Big ticket projects in rail,
road and port sectors
Set up an independent PPP Commission with authority
and jurisdiction to renegotiate terms of contract.
Fast track and stream line clearances like environment &
forest clearances, removing procedural bottlenecks, and
improving governance
Effective Dispute Resolution Mechanism
Effective Land Acquisition
Govt. to deliver at least 80% land before awarding
projects
Implement draft legislation (prepared by planning
commission) to create a new regulatory architecture for
independent functioning of sectoral regulators
Infrastructure
Strategically important sector given its forward & backward linkages
Concerns Suggestions
Infrastructure deficit
Source: Worldbank database
Ports Roads
Railway
s
Air
Transp
ort Internet
Telephon
e
 
Quality 
(1=extremel
y underdev. 
to 7=well 
developed)
(km of
per
100 sq.
km of
area)
Goods 
transpo
rted
(million
ton-km)
Freigh
t 
(millio
n
ton-
km)
users
(per
100
people)
subscriber
s
 (per 100
people)
Some Developed Countries
UK 5.5 172.3 -- 8555 77.8 130.8
USA 5.5 66.6
246873
8 50743 74.2 89.9
Germany 6.4 180.3 105794 9245 82.5 127.0
Japan 5.2 89.1 20432 8380 77.6 97.4
Australia 4.9 10.7 64172 2380 75.9 101.0
 BRICS Nations
Brazil 2.9 18.6 267700 976 40.7 104.1
China 4.3 41.8
245118
5 17441 34.4 64.0
India 3.9 125.0 600548 1720 7.5 61.4
Russia 3.7 6.0
201130
8 4614 43.3 166.3
South Africa 4.7 -- 113342 1107 18.1 100.5
• Massive investments required in the sector (US$ 1 trillion investment in
12th
Five Year Plan), 50% to come from private sector
© Confederation of Indian Industry 25
Thank YouThank You
© Confederation of Indian Industry 26

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10 point cii agenda for economic revival

  • 1. An Agenda for Economic Revival August 2013
  • 2. India Exhibited strong economic performance in the last few years -3.9% 0.6% 6.4% 4.1% -2.6% -2.8% -3.2% -1.9% -2.1% -0.8% Italy United Kingdom Japan France United States Germany Russia Brazil India China -3.7% 0.9% 6.5% 4.0% -2.4% -2.6% -2.7% -1.9% -2.3% -0.1% Italy United Kingdom Japan France United States Germany Russia Brazil India China One of the fastest growing economies in the World Fastest growing countries (2003-12) Average Annual GDP growth n PPP terms Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013 China 15.0% India 5.7%Japan 5.6% Germany 3.9% Russia 3.0% Brazil 2.9% United States 18.9% United Kingdom 2.8% France 2.7% Italy 2.2% Others 37.4% As a result, emerged as the 3rd largest economy % Share in GDP (PPP) 2012 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013 Saving & investment rates that drive economic growth are one of the highest, even amongst fastest growing economies Savings Rate (2012) Investment Rate (2012) Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2013 © Confederation of Indian Industry 1
  • 3. However, last 2 years have been disappointing 2012-13 GDP growth rock bottoms to decade’s low Pulled down primarily by industry IIP Growth (y-o-y)Industrial GDP Growth , y-o-y% (including construction) GDP growth sliding to 5% Source: CSO © Confederation of Indian Industry 2
  • 4. Downward Risks are Strong Weak domestic demand drivers Private Final Consumption Expenditure Growth (y-o-y) Average: 7.9 Average: 7.0Average: 14.7 Average: 6.9 Gross Fixed Capital Formation Growth (y-o-y) On the expenditure side, GDP growth restricted by both investment & consumption Investment growth also has fallen to multi-year lows in the last two years The largest component of GDP from demand-side-; Private final consumption expenditure growth has nearly halved ; from average growth of 8% during pre-crisis (2004-05 to 2008-09) to 4.0% in 2012-13 Source: CSO © Confederation of Indian Industry 3
  • 5. Threat from the Twin Deficits Current Account Deficit nears all time high Fiscal Deficits (as % of GDP) Current account deficit (CAD) stands way higher than the sustainable levels of deficit (2.5% of GDP) estimated by RBI Fiscal deficit expected to fall to 4.8% of GDP in 2013-14. However, upside risks to the target persist from lower GDP impacting tax collections and tepid macro-environment putting the ambitious disinvestment target at risk RE: revised estimates, BE: budget estimates Source: Ministry of FinanceSource: RBI © Confederation of Indian Industry 4 17.5 18.9 19.9 21.7 16.6 22.6 32.6 18.1 87.8 78.2 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.5 3.9 5.4 6.7 3.6 4.2 4.8 0 20 40 60 80 100 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 FY13 FY12 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 CAD(US$ billion) CAD (as a % of GDP) RHS
  • 6. Looking ahead Modest recovery on the cards 2012-13 2013-14 (F) Real GDP factor cost (y-o-y % growth) 5.0 5.3-5.8 - Agriculture 1.9 3.0-3.5 - Industry 2.1 3.5-4.0 - Services 7.1 6.5- 7.0 WPI Inflation (y-o-y%, average) 7.3 5.5-6.0 Source: CSO F: CII Forecast CII’s growth projections of 5.3-5.8 % in 2013-14 is based on the following assumptions:  Mild global recovery taking place in second-half of the year  Normal monsoons  Government sticking to its fiscal consolidation plans  Declining trend in commodity prices  Continued reforms Agenda © Confederation of Indian Industry 5
  • 7. Reversing the Downturn 10 point agenda for reviving growth & investments • Increase availability and reduce cost of capital • Promote investments/Stimulate demand • Implement GST • Fiscal consolidation • Managing current account deficit • Managing currency volatility • Mobilize financial savings • Strengthen power sector • Incentivize MSMEs • Focus on Implementation © Confederation of Indian Industry 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  • 8. 1. Increase Availability and Reduce Cost of Capital Reduce repo rate by 75 bps & CRR by 100 bps in the current fiscal The need for monetary policy easing Rising Divergence between WPI & CPI (y-o-y%) Will provide impetus to growth from demand side Sectoral IIP Growth (y-o-y%) Consumption demand growth nearly halved Consumption Growth (y-o-y%) * Revised estimates; ^ Provisional estimates Gross Fixed Capital Formation Growth (y-o-y%) Growth of interest rate sensitive sectors has decelerated Source: CSO Source: Office of the Economic Advisor Source: CSO © Confederation of Indian Industry 7 0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 WPI CPI
  • 9. 2. Promote Investments Create transparent and timeline oriented mechanism for 100 largest projects with a reporting framework (Projects to include infrastructure and manufacturing) Projects severely hit Need to improve business confidence New Project Announcements (Rs Billion) 80% decline in the last 5 years Stalled/ Shelved Projects (Rs Billion) 67% increase in the last 5 years No. of Industrial Entrepreneur Memorandums (IEMs)Filed Value. of IEMs Filed (Rs 000 Crore) Implying big projects relatively worse hit 34% decline 67% decline Source: CMIE, CAPEX database Source: DIPP © Confederation of Indian Industry 8
  • 10. 1 • Set Up Empowered Committee of State Industries Ministers with Union Industries Minister as a Coordinator for clearing projects • Set Up Empowered Committee of State Industries Ministers with Union Industries Minister as a Coordinator for clearing projects • Introduce incentive scheme to replace government vehicles of 10-12 years vintage to revive demand, Funds allocated for transport renewal under JNNURM could be linked for the purpose • Introduce incentive scheme to replace government vehicles of 10-12 years vintage to revive demand, Funds allocated for transport renewal under JNNURM could be linked for the purpose • Revive the mining sector - review ban on mining, expedite clearances through single window route; Promote contract Mining • Revive the mining sector - review ban on mining, expedite clearances through single window route; Promote contract Mining • Invest public sector savings• Invest public sector savings • Promote low cost housing• Promote low cost housing 2. Promote Investments (cont) 9 2 3 4 5 © Confederation of Indian Industry
  • 11. Overall Paying Taxes No. of Payments No. of Hours Total Tax Rate Leading nations in terms of overall Paying Taxes UAE 1 4 12 14.9 Qatar 2 4 48 11.3 Saudi Arabia 3 3 72 14.5 Hong Kong 4 3 78 23.0 Singapore 5 5 82 27.6 BRICS Nations Brazil 156 9 2600 69.3 China 122 7 338 63.7 India 152 33 243 61.8 Russian Fed. 64 7 177 54.1 South Africa 32 9 200 33.3 Asian Developing Countries Bangladesh 97 20 302 35.0 India 152 33 243 61.8 Indonesia 131 51 259 34.5 Nepal 114 34 326 31.5 Pakistan 162 47 560 35.3 Philippines 143 47 198 46.6 India fares poorly on the Paying Taxes indicators compiled by World Bank and PWC in ‘Paying Taxes 2013’. Of the 185 countries studied, India gets a rank of 152 in terms of overall paying taxes India’s performance is particularly poor on number of payments and tax rate Ease of paying taxes in select countries (Based on ‘Paying Taxes 2013: The Global Picture’) India falls behind on tax competitiveness GST will result in numerous benefits 3. Implement GST India’s low tax competitiveness necessitates implementation of GST for simplifying tax structure – Need an immediate roadmap 11 • Make India a single market • With GST, a free flow of goods can be envisaged, making the domestic supply chain faster, more efficient and seamless from one end to the other • As much as 1.5 percentage points can be added to India’s GDP growth rate on implementation of GST • GST would significantly boost manufacturing sector thereby adding substantially to jobs • Exports would also receive a fillip from a more competitive environment • Tax compliance would greatly improve • This would lower administrative costs & bureaucratic procedures as well • Would provide an assured base for central & state revenues, enabling better planning for inclusive growth Source: World Bank & PWC © Confederation of Indian Industry 10 22 33 44 55 66
  • 12. 4. Fiscal Consolidation Augmenting revenues and curtailing non- productive expenditure Meeting the target necessary for restricting fiscal deficits The way forward Fiscal deficits as % of GDP Fiscal deficit target put at 4.8% of GDP for 2013-14 Disinvestment Target & Achievement (Rs crore) Actual disinvestments constantly falling short of the target Fast track public sector disinvestment. Waiting for the right time is infructuous Create a policy framework for monetising the unutilized and under-utilized assets and land resources available with the Government and PSUs Unlock value from Government assets that have turned economically unviable and cannot be revived (like sick PSU’s) Rationalise subsidies Cut fertilizer subsidies ; Apply Nutrient Based Subsidies(NBS) to urea Provide realistic estimates of subsidies in Budget to avoid the gap between budgeted and revised estimates . Expedite implementation of Kelkar Committee recommendations Fast track public sector disinvestment. Waiting for the right time is infructuous Create a policy framework for monetising the unutilized and under-utilized assets and land resources available with the Government and PSUs Unlock value from Government assets that have turned economically unviable and cannot be revived (like sick PSU’s) Rationalise subsidies Cut fertilizer subsidies ; Apply Nutrient Based Subsidies(NBS) to urea Provide realistic estimates of subsidies in Budget to avoid the gap between budgeted and revised estimates . Expedite implementation of Kelkar Committee recommendations Source: Ministry of Finance ? © Confederation of Indian Industry 11
  • 13. Market diversification – Realigning focus towards non-traditional markets and exploring opportunities in untapped markets. Create an India trade and investment cell on the lines of UK trade and investment (UKTI) to identify opportunities for exports Use credit lines to these untapped markets for purchase of Indian goods. Explore bilateral arrangements for export of Indian goods with the countries from where India is importing energy goods to reduce the trade deficit .(eg Sudan, Mosambique ) Improve overall manufacturing productivity and competitiveness Strengthen Exports From SEZ : Extend Chapter 3 benefits like FMS, FPS and Investment linked IT deduction for units in SEZ Extend duty draw back benefit to the exports made to SEZ units where sales proceeds are realized in INR. Promote value addition within the country rather than exporting basic raw material and importing the finished product as in case of steel ,cotton Review cotton export policy - discourage cotton exports keeping in view the nascent boom in textile industry in India. Create export development fund for MSMEs Market diversification – Realigning focus towards non-traditional markets and exploring opportunities in untapped markets. Create an India trade and investment cell on the lines of UK trade and investment (UKTI) to identify opportunities for exports Use credit lines to these untapped markets for purchase of Indian goods. Explore bilateral arrangements for export of Indian goods with the countries from where India is importing energy goods to reduce the trade deficit .(eg Sudan, Mosambique ) Improve overall manufacturing productivity and competitiveness Strengthen Exports From SEZ : Extend Chapter 3 benefits like FMS, FPS and Investment linked IT deduction for units in SEZ Extend duty draw back benefit to the exports made to SEZ units where sales proceeds are realized in INR. Promote value addition within the country rather than exporting basic raw material and importing the finished product as in case of steel ,cotton Review cotton export policy - discourage cotton exports keeping in view the nascent boom in textile industry in India. Create export development fund for MSMEs 5. Managing Current Account Deficit (CAD) Boost exports India’s export performance Export growth declining Source: RBI CAD widens on sluggish exports Need Pro Active Steps © Confederation of Indian Industry 12 17.5 18.9 19.9 21.7 16.6 22.6 32.6 18.1 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.5 3.9 5.4 6.7 3.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 CAD (US$ billion) CAD (as a % of GDP) RHS
  • 14. 5. Managing Current Account Deficit (CAD) Reduce Transaction Cost of Exports High Transaction Cost impacting Competitiveness of Exports © Confederation of Indian Industry 13 Recommendations for Export Related CompliancesRecommendations for Export Related Compliances Implement recommendations of Task Force on Transaction Costs in Exports’ (2009) constituted by Ministry of Commerce & Industry Create Single online interface for exporters/importers to obtain Government clearances from different agencies Expedite e-Trade project. Strengthen institutional mechanism for handling inter-ministerial trade-related automation issues; Explore the possibility of doing away with the requirement of submission of invoice, packing list before Customs for export/import clearances in the EDI environment and only cases which are identified for detailed examination may be asked to submit manual documentation on a need basis; Explore the possibility of developing a mechanism for Large Taxpayers and Status Holders, similar to that available in Excise and Service Tax, for payment of Customs duty on a monthly basis instead of the present of consignment- wise payment system of customs duty; Operating Call Centre(s) on a 24 X 7 basis for e-Trade project, through outsourcing Recommendations for Export Related CompliancesRecommendations for Export Related Compliances Implement recommendations of Task Force on Transaction Costs in Exports’ (2009) constituted by Ministry of Commerce & Industry Create Single online interface for exporters/importers to obtain Government clearances from different agencies Expedite e-Trade project. Strengthen institutional mechanism for handling inter-ministerial trade-related automation issues; Explore the possibility of doing away with the requirement of submission of invoice, packing list before Customs for export/import clearances in the EDI environment and only cases which are identified for detailed examination may be asked to submit manual documentation on a need basis; Explore the possibility of developing a mechanism for Large Taxpayers and Status Holders, similar to that available in Excise and Service Tax, for payment of Customs duty on a monthly basis instead of the present of consignment- wise payment system of customs duty; Operating Call Centre(s) on a 24 X 7 basis for e-Trade project, through outsourcing
  • 15. 5. Managing Current Account Deficit (CAD) Curtailing Avoidable Imports Rise in imports due to inadequate domestic capacity /policy hurdles © Confederation of Indian Industry 14 Discourage avoidable imports (like coal, iron –ore, fertilizers, etc) Initiate steps to create adequate domestic capacity to avoid imports of items such as electronics, mobile phones Address import bias in policy e.g. power sector Incentivize indigenous technology development for import substitution Dematerialize gold Protect Domestic small and medium industry from imports (temporarily using anti dumping/ safeguard duty) Discourage avoidable imports (like coal, iron –ore, fertilizers, etc) Initiate steps to create adequate domestic capacity to avoid imports of items such as electronics, mobile phones Address import bias in policy e.g. power sector Incentivize indigenous technology development for import substitution Dematerialize gold Protect Domestic small and medium industry from imports (temporarily using anti dumping/ safeguard duty)
  • 16. 5. Financing CAD Raise FDI limits; Ease procedural norms © Confederation of Indian Industry 15 • Liberalise FDI norms/rules across the board. Raising caps not enough • Liberalise FDI norms/rules across the board. Raising caps not enough • Issue Sovereign Guaranteed Bonds worth USD 80 – 100 billion • Issue Sovereign Guaranteed Bonds worth USD 80 – 100 billion • Make the process of investing in India simpler – especially for strategic investors, compared to portfolio investors • Make the process of investing in India simpler – especially for strategic investors, compared to portfolio investors 1 2 3
  • 17. 6. Managing Currency Volatility • Float long term sovereign guaranteed bonds worth $ 80-100 billion for a term of 30 years. • Float long term sovereign guaranteed bonds worth $ 80-100 billion for a term of 30 years. • Dollar-Window for Oil Companies- The RBI could open a dollar window for oil companies to address their forex requirements • Dollar-Window for Oil Companies- The RBI could open a dollar window for oil companies to address their forex requirements • Demonetize high denomination currency notes, encourage use of credit cards and debit cards • Demonetize high denomination currency notes, encourage use of credit cards and debit cards © Confederation of Indian Industry Source: RBI Rs/US$ Rupee touched its all-time low in August 2013 Manage volatility and stabilize the Rupee 16 1 2 3 4 • Remove Short – term capital gains tax on FIIs • Remove Short – term capital gains tax on FIIs Rs/US$ (RHS) 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 16-Apr-11 16-Aug-11 16-Dec-11 16-Apr-12 16-Aug-12 16-Dec-12 16-Apr-13 16-Aug-13 Rs/US$ (RHS)
  • 18. Declining household financial savings Need for mobilizing higher financial savings 7. Mobilize Financial Savings Channelize savings into financial assets Saving-investment gap widens Household savings in physical assets on a rise Open Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme to individuals earning upto Rs. 15 lakhs compared to Rs. 12 lakhs at present Remove TDS on interest income Channelize savings into financial assets Launch attractive and reliable inflation adjusted instruments which would yield (1.5-% - 2 %) higher returns than long term average inflation Enhance financial literacy and investor protection mechanisms Open Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme to individuals earning upto Rs. 15 lakhs compared to Rs. 12 lakhs at present Remove TDS on interest income Channelize savings into financial assets Launch attractive and reliable inflation adjusted instruments which would yield (1.5-% - 2 %) higher returns than long term average inflation Enhance financial literacy and investor protection mechanisms Savings as % of GDP Savings & Investments as % of GDP Source: CSO © Confederation of Indian Industry 17
  • 19. Expedite competitive bidding of captive coal blocks through process similar to NELP Set up well capitalized procurer entity with partners from CIL, financial institutions, other select players (e.g., NTPC, MMTC) to import at scale Reserve certain proportion of coal blocks for the Power sector Create either single window clearance or at least a coordinated approach for clearances among various Ministries to expedite monetization of allocated blocks Provide regulatory autonomy to SEB’s ; Effect unbundling of SEB’s into separate generation, transmission and distribution companies Prepare a road map for completing reforms in power sector as per Electricity Act 2003 Expedite competitive bidding of captive coal blocks through process similar to NELP Set up well capitalized procurer entity with partners from CIL, financial institutions, other select players (e.g., NTPC, MMTC) to import at scale Reserve certain proportion of coal blocks for the Power sector Create either single window clearance or at least a coordinated approach for clearances among various Ministries to expedite monetization of allocated blocks Provide regulatory autonomy to SEB’s ; Effect unbundling of SEB’s into separate generation, transmission and distribution companies Prepare a road map for completing reforms in power sector as per Electricity Act 2003 Insufficient coal availability Improving power supply Coal is the dominant source of power generation in the country India’s power generation capacity (Giga Watt & %) 30th Apr 2013 Source: CEA However, insufficient coal availability to power sector resulting in lower Plant Load Factor PLF of coal based plants in India Source: CEA © Confederation of Indian Industry 8. Strengthen Power Sector Ensure fuel supplies to power sector; regulatory autonomy to SEBs 18
  • 20. Concerns 9. Incentivize MSME The backbone of Indian industry Suggestions Currently the sector suffers with multitude of problems ranging from cost of credit, technology and competitiveness, skill and information gap to marketing and branding issues © Confederation of Indian Industry 19
  • 21. Recommendations for reviving investor confidence 10. Focus on Implementation India’s biggest weak link is in implementation Maintain consistent, stable and transparent tax policy; Implement recommendations of Shome Committee on GAAR and Retrospective Tax Amendments ; Rangachary Committee on Safe Harbor Rules and Kelkar Committee on Fiscal Consolidation Implement recommendations of the Administrative Reforms Commission Implement the National Manufacturing Policy, DMIC and other Industrial and Economic Corridors, etc within a fixed timeline © Confederation of Indian Industry 20 1 2 3
  • 22. Sector Specific RecommendationsSector Specific Recommendations © Confederation of Indian Industry 21
  • 23. Agriculture Tackle supply-side bottlenecks Investments in agriculture have failed to pick up in the last 3-4 years Gross Capital Formation as % of GDP Concerns Suggestions ‘Speedy reforms’ of Agricultural Produce Market Committees (APMC) Act across different States along with ‘time-bound development’ of marketing infrastructure De-notifying Fruits , Vegetables and other perishables from the APMC list Strengthening legislation around contract farming and facilitate direct marketing and producer organization led models Land leasing Reforms - long term lease of land(>10 years) without alienating ownership rights Allowing Lessees to avail the incentives available to Land owners e.g. subsidies on drip irrigation, sprinklers & all such other benefits to improve availability of land, access to capital, technology and inputs to farmers. Incentivise private sector to participate in irrigation, farm mechanization, agriculture markets, cold chains, warehousing and research. ‘Speedy reforms’ of Agricultural Produce Market Committees (APMC) Act across different States along with ‘time-bound development’ of marketing infrastructure De-notifying Fruits , Vegetables and other perishables from the APMC list Strengthening legislation around contract farming and facilitate direct marketing and producer organization led models Land leasing Reforms - long term lease of land(>10 years) without alienating ownership rights Allowing Lessees to avail the incentives available to Land owners e.g. subsidies on drip irrigation, sprinklers & all such other benefits to improve availability of land, access to capital, technology and inputs to farmers. Incentivise private sector to participate in irrigation, farm mechanization, agriculture markets, cold chains, warehousing and research. Supply side bottlenecks resulted in increase in prices Agricultural output & prices Source: CSO Source: CII calculations based on CSO data © Confederation of Indian Industry 22
  • 24. Mining Need for energizing the sector Mining sector contribution to GDP declining Mining sector contribution to GDP Concerns Suggestions Both State and Union governments should take steps to immediately start all legal mining operations in the respective States Notify and Implement the Mining Policy Treating Exploration and Mining as separate industrial activities as has been practiced successfully in countries with large mineral deposits like Canada, Australia, and South Africa. This would encourage investments from specialized exploration companies. Both State and Union governments should take steps to immediately start all legal mining operations in the respective States Notify and Implement the Mining Policy Treating Exploration and Mining as separate industrial activities as has been practiced successfully in countries with large mineral deposits like Canada, Australia, and South Africa. This would encourage investments from specialized exploration companies. Declining mining sector growth a concern Source: CSO © Confederation of Indian Industry 23
  • 25. 3,447 10,218 16,058 16,467 23,125 21,004 18,075 8,788 4,090 2012-13* 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 1,417 3,094 4,048 5,123 5,993 4,473 4,866 3,822 2,097 2012-13* 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 Speed up approvals for delayed projects(>1000 crores) in manufacturing sector Fast Track clearances of at lest 200 projects worth Rs 250 crores and above in 3 months Fast track implementation of the National Manufacturing Policy and establishment of National Manufacturing & Investment Zones (NIMZs). (Facilitating early resolution of pending issues between centre, state and line ministries) Facilitating conducive environment for attracting Investment in Manufacturing Successful pan- India implementing of Project E-Biz in a time bound manner Simplification and rationalization of labour laws for promoting employment generation in manufacturing. Speed up approvals for delayed projects(>1000 crores) in manufacturing sector Fast Track clearances of at lest 200 projects worth Rs 250 crores and above in 3 months Fast track implementation of the National Manufacturing Policy and establishment of National Manufacturing & Investment Zones (NIMZs). (Facilitating early resolution of pending issues between centre, state and line ministries) Facilitating conducive environment for attracting Investment in Manufacturing Successful pan- India implementing of Project E-Biz in a time bound manner Simplification and rationalization of labour laws for promoting employment generation in manufacturing. Manufacturing Stagnancy a major concern Concerns Suggestions 14.5 14.2 14.6 15.2 16.4 16.6 15.9 15.4 15.1 15.5 15.0 15.4 15.2 15.3 15.3 16.0 16.1 15.8 16.2 16.2 15.7 15.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Agriculture Industry Manufacturing Services Numbers denote Share of Manufacturing Sectoral Shares in GDP Source: CSO as reported in RBI database Contribution of Manufacturing has stagnated * Till Dec 2012, Source: CMIE’s CAPEX database New Manufacturing Project Announcements Volume (Number) Value (Rs billion crore) New investments in manufacturing rapidly declining 24© Confederation of Indian Industry
  • 26. CCI should speed up approvals for delayed projects(>1000 crores) Speed up implementation of Big ticket projects in rail, road and port sectors Set up an independent PPP Commission with authority and jurisdiction to renegotiate terms of contract. Fast track and stream line clearances like environment & forest clearances, removing procedural bottlenecks, and improving governance Effective Dispute Resolution Mechanism Effective Land Acquisition Govt. to deliver at least 80% land before awarding projects Implement draft legislation (prepared by planning commission) to create a new regulatory architecture for independent functioning of sectoral regulators CCI should speed up approvals for delayed projects(>1000 crores) Speed up implementation of Big ticket projects in rail, road and port sectors Set up an independent PPP Commission with authority and jurisdiction to renegotiate terms of contract. Fast track and stream line clearances like environment & forest clearances, removing procedural bottlenecks, and improving governance Effective Dispute Resolution Mechanism Effective Land Acquisition Govt. to deliver at least 80% land before awarding projects Implement draft legislation (prepared by planning commission) to create a new regulatory architecture for independent functioning of sectoral regulators Infrastructure Strategically important sector given its forward & backward linkages Concerns Suggestions Infrastructure deficit Source: Worldbank database Ports Roads Railway s Air Transp ort Internet Telephon e   Quality  (1=extremel y underdev.  to 7=well  developed) (km of per 100 sq. km of area) Goods  transpo rted (million ton-km) Freigh t  (millio n ton- km) users (per 100 people) subscriber s  (per 100 people) Some Developed Countries UK 5.5 172.3 -- 8555 77.8 130.8 USA 5.5 66.6 246873 8 50743 74.2 89.9 Germany 6.4 180.3 105794 9245 82.5 127.0 Japan 5.2 89.1 20432 8380 77.6 97.4 Australia 4.9 10.7 64172 2380 75.9 101.0  BRICS Nations Brazil 2.9 18.6 267700 976 40.7 104.1 China 4.3 41.8 245118 5 17441 34.4 64.0 India 3.9 125.0 600548 1720 7.5 61.4 Russia 3.7 6.0 201130 8 4614 43.3 166.3 South Africa 4.7 -- 113342 1107 18.1 100.5 • Massive investments required in the sector (US$ 1 trillion investment in 12th Five Year Plan), 50% to come from private sector © Confederation of Indian Industry 25
  • 27. Thank YouThank You © Confederation of Indian Industry 26