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Union Budget 2023-24

Budget 2023 is out and we come prepared to help you understand it better! Read more to catch up on the highlights.

Union Budget 2023-24

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UNION BUDGET
2023-24
Simplified
Highlights of Economic Survey (2023)
• India 5th largest economy
in 2022
• Nominal GDP expected to
be ~$3.5 Tn by FY23 end
Avg. monthly gross GST
collection rose to 1.49 Lk. Cr.
in current fiscal from 1.24 in
FY22
National Infrastructure
Pipeline (NIP) has expanded
to 9,000 projects from 6,835
projected earlier
Goods & Services exports for
9MFY23 up 16% compared
to same period
in 2021-22
Central Govt. capex rose by
63% y-o-y during 8MFY23
Gross Tax Revenue registered
15.5% y-o-y growth from
Apr-Nov 2022
TAX REVENUE
CAPEX
EXPORTS
INDIA HIGHLIGHTS
GST
INFRASTRUCTURE
02
Source - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, Capex – Capital Expenditure, GST – Goods & Services Tax, y-o-y – year on year
Highlights of Economic Survey (2023)
Source - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey. PMAY – Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna, JJM – Jal Jeevan Mission, DDU – GKY - Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Grameen Kaushalya Yojana, PMUY
- Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, AB-JAY - Ayushman Bharat – Pradhan Mantri Jan AarogyaYojana, PMGKSY - Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana, PM-SHRI - Pradhan Mantri Schools for Rising
India, PMSBY - Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana, PM-SYM - radhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maan-dhan, MGNREGS - Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, NEP – National
Education Policy
Book of Multifaceted initiatives to improve the ecosystem of ‘Quality of Life’
03
2.1 Cr houses constructed
under PMAY
2.9 Cr Rural households
electrified under Saubhagya
11 Cr tap water connections
under JJM
13 Lakh candidate trained
under DDU- GKY
11 Cr LPG connections provided
under PMUY
22 Cr AB-JAY beneficiaries
NEP to revolutionize education,
14500 PM-SHRI schools to be set
up
30 Cr enrolments in PMSBY, 49
Lakh enrolments in PM-SYM
6.5 Cr households offered MGNREGS
work in FY 23
7.2 Lakh km roads constructed since
2000 under PMGKSY
Source - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey. Revex - Revenue Expenditure, Capex – Capital Expenditure. Revex excludes interest payments & subsidies, PA – Provisional Actual, BE – Budget
Estimates, EPFO – Employees' Provident Fund Organisation
04
Highlights of Economic Survey (2023)
WALKING THE TIGHTROPE GRACEFULLY –
The Govt. is well on track to achieve its Fiscal Deficit target while simultaneously increasing its
Capital Expenditure which has a major multiplier effect on economy
104.6
46.2
58.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr-Nov (5Y Avg) Apr-Nov 21 Apr-Nov 22
Fiscal Deficit as % of Budget Estimates
0
1
2
3
4
5
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 PA FY23 BE
Revenue to Capital Expenditure Ratio
Source - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey
05
Highlights of Economic Survey (2023)
GROWTH MAGNETS THIS DECADE (2023-2030)
Healthy Financial System
(Financials & Corporate
Sector)
Global supply chain
diversification
De-regulation
Digitalization led
Formalization
New age
reforms
Source: Morgan Stanley and Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, GNPL – Gross Non Performing Loans, E –
Estimates
06
Decoding the Growth Magnets
HEALTHY FINANCIAL SYSTEM
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
F2012
F2013
F2014
F2015
F2016
F2017
F2018
F2019
F2020
F2021
F2022
GNPLs Restructured Loans
Banks have repaired their Balance Sheets in last few years
12.4
7.5
62
55
48
49
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
F2007
F2008
F2009
F2010
F2011
F2012
F2013
F2014
F2015
F2016
F2017
F2018
F2019
F2020
F2021
F2022
F2023E
F2024E
Corporate Debt, % of GDP
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Union Budget 2023-24

  • 2. Highlights of Economic Survey (2023) • India 5th largest economy in 2022 • Nominal GDP expected to be ~$3.5 Tn by FY23 end Avg. monthly gross GST collection rose to 1.49 Lk. Cr. in current fiscal from 1.24 in FY22 National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) has expanded to 9,000 projects from 6,835 projected earlier Goods & Services exports for 9MFY23 up 16% compared to same period in 2021-22 Central Govt. capex rose by 63% y-o-y during 8MFY23 Gross Tax Revenue registered 15.5% y-o-y growth from Apr-Nov 2022 TAX REVENUE CAPEX EXPORTS INDIA HIGHLIGHTS GST INFRASTRUCTURE 02 Source - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, Capex – Capital Expenditure, GST – Goods & Services Tax, y-o-y – year on year
  • 3. Highlights of Economic Survey (2023) Source - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey. PMAY – Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna, JJM – Jal Jeevan Mission, DDU – GKY - Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Grameen Kaushalya Yojana, PMUY - Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, AB-JAY - Ayushman Bharat – Pradhan Mantri Jan AarogyaYojana, PMGKSY - Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana, PM-SHRI - Pradhan Mantri Schools for Rising India, PMSBY - Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana, PM-SYM - radhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maan-dhan, MGNREGS - Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, NEP – National Education Policy Book of Multifaceted initiatives to improve the ecosystem of ‘Quality of Life’ 03 2.1 Cr houses constructed under PMAY 2.9 Cr Rural households electrified under Saubhagya 11 Cr tap water connections under JJM 13 Lakh candidate trained under DDU- GKY 11 Cr LPG connections provided under PMUY 22 Cr AB-JAY beneficiaries NEP to revolutionize education, 14500 PM-SHRI schools to be set up 30 Cr enrolments in PMSBY, 49 Lakh enrolments in PM-SYM 6.5 Cr households offered MGNREGS work in FY 23 7.2 Lakh km roads constructed since 2000 under PMGKSY
  • 4. Source - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey. Revex - Revenue Expenditure, Capex – Capital Expenditure. Revex excludes interest payments & subsidies, PA – Provisional Actual, BE – Budget Estimates, EPFO – Employees' Provident Fund Organisation 04 Highlights of Economic Survey (2023) WALKING THE TIGHTROPE GRACEFULLY – The Govt. is well on track to achieve its Fiscal Deficit target while simultaneously increasing its Capital Expenditure which has a major multiplier effect on economy 104.6 46.2 58.9 0 20 40 60 80 100 Apr-Nov (5Y Avg) Apr-Nov 21 Apr-Nov 22 Fiscal Deficit as % of Budget Estimates 0 1 2 3 4 5 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 PA FY23 BE Revenue to Capital Expenditure Ratio
  • 5. Source - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey 05 Highlights of Economic Survey (2023) GROWTH MAGNETS THIS DECADE (2023-2030) Healthy Financial System (Financials & Corporate Sector) Global supply chain diversification De-regulation Digitalization led Formalization New age reforms
  • 6. Source: Morgan Stanley and Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, GNPL – Gross Non Performing Loans, E – Estimates 06 Decoding the Growth Magnets HEALTHY FINANCIAL SYSTEM 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 GNPLs Restructured Loans Banks have repaired their Balance Sheets in last few years 12.4 7.5 62 55 48 49 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 F2023E F2024E Corporate Debt, % of GDP
  • 7. Source: https://www.indiabudget.gov.in. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. UPI – Unified Payments Interface. EPFO- Employees’ Provident Fund Organization 07 Decoding the Growth Magnets DIGITALIZATION LED FORMALIZATION 8.8 13.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Apr-Nov 21 Apr-Nov 22 EPFO Net avg. monthly subscribers (Lakhs) Rise in Payroll Addition 1 6 18 34 72 126 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 UPI Transactions (in Lakh Crs) Rise in Digital Payments
  • 8. Source: OECD and Morgan Stanley & UBS. The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation an d ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s). 08 Decoding the Growth Magnets GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN DIVERSIFICATION (CHINA+1) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Singapore South Korea Taiwan China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Manufacturing Wage(US$/hr) 2019 2020 2021 Lowest Labour Costs makes ‘Manufacturing in India’ favourable Companies Investment Time Period (USD Bn) Samsung, Foxconn, Lava, Wistron & Pegatron 5.6 FY 21-26 Siemens Healthcare, Integris Healthcare, Poly Medicure 0.5 FY 21-28 Nokia , Ciena, Flextronics 1.7 FY 22-26 Nestle, Hindustan Unilever Ltd, 1.5 FY 22-27 Daikin Group, Panasonic 0.9 FY 22-26 Key Announcements by Global Companies to invest in India
  • 9. Source – NSSO, Income Tax data, Census, Spark Capital Research, Morgan Stanley. *15% for Manufacturing Companies, ARC – Asset Reconstruction Company 09 Decoding the Growth Magnets NEW AGE REFORMS PRODUCTION LINKED INCENTIVE LAND REFORMS PM GATI SHAKTI TAXATION REFORMS To boost domestic manufacturing INSOLVENCY & BANKRUPTCY CODE Provides for insolvency resolution in time bound manner NATIONAL ASSET RECONSTRUCTION CO. LTD A ‘bad bank’ to aggregate & acquire stressed loans Creation of Land banks to make land easily identifiable for industrial projects Allocation of Rs. 100 Tn. to expedite the projects of National Infrastructure Pipeline Cut in Corporate Tax rates to 22%*, introduction of GST & faceless tax assessment
  • 10. 10 Union Budget 2023-24 – Key Announcements CAPEX • Steep rise in capex outlay to Rs. 10 Tn (+33% y-o-y) • This coupled with Grants-in-Aid to states take ‘Effective Capex’ to 4.5% of GDP RAILWAYS Highest ever railway capital outlay at Rs 2.40tn AUTOMOBILES AFFORDABLE HOUSING Outlay for Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana enhanced for 2nd consecutive year by 66% to Rs. 790 Bn PERSONAL TAX* EASE OF DOING BUSINESS To enhance ease of doing business, 39000 compliances reduced and 3,400 legal provision decriminalized • The Govt. plans to allocate funds to replace old Govt. vehicles • Budget focus more on the EV segment • Rebate under section 87A of Income Tax Act, 1961 hiked from Rs. 5 lakh to Rs. 7 lakh under new tax regime • Restructuring of tax slabs under new tax regime • Highest surcharge reduced from 37% to 25% in new tax regime Source – www.indiabudget.gov.in. *Kindly consult tax advisor for further details. Capex – Capital Expenditure, GDP – Gross Domestic Product. EV – Electric Vehicle, y-o-y is year on year
  • 11. 11 Direct Tax Announcements • Extending benefits of standard deduction to new tax regime for salaries class & pensioners • Increasing tax exemption limit of Rs. 25 lakh on leave encashment on retirement for non- govt salaried employees Surcharge rate on income above Rs. 5 Cr to be reduced from 37% to 25% under new tax regime Income limit for rebate of income tax increased from Rs. 5 lakh to 7 lakh in the new tax regime Multiple changes were proposed under the new tax regime 30% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% >15 12-15 9-12 6-9 3-6 0-3 Tax Rate Income Levels Income Level and Tax Rate for New Tax Regime Source – www.indiabudget.gov.in. Kindly consult tax advisor for further details
  • 12. 12 Key Announcements & Sector Impact Source – www.indiabudget.gov.in. y-o-y – year on year, FAME - Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles, EV – Electric Vehicle, MNREGA - Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, ULIP - Unit Linked Insurance Plan. The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s). Infrastructure • 33% y-o-y rise in capex outlay positive • Defence outlay is up 8% y-o-y • Road capex outlay +25% & railways outlay +15% y-o-y respectively Automobiles • FAME 2 (incentives for EV) allocation of Rs. 51.72 Bn vs Rs. 29.08 Bn last year • Allocation for Automobiles and Auto Components has been increased from Rs. 0.11 Bn to Rs. 6.04 Bn Real Estate • 66% higher allocation to Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) to Rs. 790 Bn • Capping the benefit of Capital Gains tax offsets via purchase of property >10 Crs a minor negative Cement • Overall higher allocation for affordable housing (PMAY) & Capex positive • Minor negative - MNREGA allocation down by 33% YoY at Rs. 600 Bn Consumer Staples • <2% effective marginal tax hike on cigarettes post 2 years of stagnant tax structure is a positive Insurance • Aggregate of premium for life insurance policies (ex. ULIP) issued on or after 1st April 2023 if >5 Lakhs, income will be taxed at marginal tax rate
  • 13. 13 Our Equity Outlook • Indian equity market has underperformed Global and Asian Markets in the last few months* • Also, in the last few weeks, we have seen good correction, resulting in moderation of premium • However, we believe there is further head-room for valuations to normalize compared to long- term average and relative to Emerging & Developed Market peers • We continue to remain optimistic on long term economic prospects of India albeit with a cautious view for near term as valuations are not cheap • Hence, in sync with our Annual Outlook for 2023 (read here), we continue to recommend the ‘SAFE’ Investment Approach • ‘S’ – Recommend Freedom SIP / Booster STP in Equity Schemes • ‘A’ – Expect volatility, recommend asset allocation across asset classes / geographies • ‘F’ – Debt schemes attractive post rate hikes • ‘E’ – Recommend Equity Arbitrage / Equity Savings category for parking surplus funds *Source – Value Research. SAFE is an acronym used for Investment Approach for 2023 and does not in any manner indicate safety or less risk
  • 14. 14 Our Fixed Income Outlook • The Union Budget was an extension to previous two budgets which was presented post the pandemic • Growth has normalized, but we believe the pace of fiscal consolidation remains slow • Strong tax buoyancy due to higher nominal growth (inflation included) made this year’s fiscal deficit target comfortable • However, next year’s conditions due to higher inflation base may make the fiscal deficit target difficult to achieve • Quality of spending in the budget remains good, which may result in growth remaining robust in the face of global headwinds • Hence effectively, challenging fiscal deficit math and strong growth may push RBI to hike rates moderately followed by a period of elongated pause • Changes in tax structure in select insurance products may be a dampener for the demand of long-dated bonds • Also, the yield curve continues to remain flat, making term-premium unattractive • Hence, we continue with our stance of remaining cautious on the longer-end of yield curve • Having said that, the yields have become attractive on the shorter-end and we recommend investing in short-duration schemes • Accrual strategy is also recommended as the case for capital appreciation remains low due to low probability of rate- cuts Term Premium - The term premium is the amount by which the yield on a long-term bond is greater than the yield on shorter-term bonds
  • 15. Disclaimer 15 Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this presentation do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these sector(s)/stock(s). All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. ICICI Prudential Freedom SIP is an optional feature offered by ICICI Prudential AMC. This feature does not in any way give assurance of the performance of any of the Schemes of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund or provide any guarantee of withdrawals through SWP mode. The SWP will be processed either till Dec 2099 or till the units are available in target scheme, whichever is earlier. Freedom SIP allows investors to switch the SIP investments to a target scheme, post completion of the SIP tenure & monthly SWP will continue from the target scheme. The investor may select any other SWP Amount. Multiples above are default. The illustration showing “multiples”, “X”, “times” referred do not in any manner indicate the return or return multiple which investor will be getting by investing in this feature. It only indicates the likely amount that can be withdrawn through SWP and for ease of understanding and planning of the investor, it is depicted in multiples of SIP amount opted by the investor. STP – Systematic Transfer Plan. ICICI Prudential Booster Systematic Transfer Plan (“Booster STP”) is a facility wherein unit holder(s) can opt to transfer variable amount(s) from designated open ended Scheme(s) of the Fund [hereinafter referred to as “Source Scheme”] to the designated open-ended Scheme(s) of the Fund [hereinafter referred to as “Target Scheme”] at defined intervals. The Unitholder would be required to provide a Base Installment Amount that is intended to be transferred to the Target Scheme. The variable amount(s) or actual amount(s) of transfer to the Target Scheme will be linked to the Equity Valuation Index (hereinafter referred to as EVI). Equity Valuation Index (EVI) is a proprietary model of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall equity market valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC. This facilities should not be associated or confused with any other facilities provided by ICICI Prudential AMC Limited. Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including Budget speech and information developed in-house. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this stock(s). Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any informa- tion. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Lim- ited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material.