National Economic Conditions Ray Owens April 12, 2011
Q4 3.1 Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
Personal Saving Rate Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics Percent of disposable personal income Feb. 5.8%
Year over Year % Change Real Personal Income Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Feb. Personal Income & Expenditures Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity. ISM: Business Survey Indexes Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics
Housing Vacancy Rate Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics Percent Q4 14.1%
Housing Starts Single-Family Building Permits & Housing Starts Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics Millions of Units Building Permits Feb.
Multi-Family Building Permits & Housing Starts Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics Building Permits Housing Starts
CoreLogic House Price Indices Source: CoreLogic/Haver Analytics Year over Year % Change Including Distressed Sales Excluding Distressed Sales Februay Incl. Distressed Sales -6.6% Excl. Distressed Sales 0.0%
Net Absorptions & Employment Source: Torto Wheaton, Bureau of Labor Statistics, & Haver Analytics Thousands of Employees, Quarterly Averages Millions of Square Feet Changes in Employment (Left Axis) Net Absorptions, Office Buildings (Right Axis) Notes: Office employment is the sum of employment in information, financial activities, and professional and business services.
Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons Q1 Avg. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Percent Mar. 8.8% Civilian Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the January 25-26 meeting. FOMC Forecast
All Items Core CPI Feb. 2.1% Consumer Price Indexes Year over Year % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 1.1%
Current Target Range for Federal Funds Rate Expected Federal Funds Rate Percent Source: Chicago Board of Trade Notes: Derived from Fed funds futures contracts.