Green pearl chandan-state-of_the_office_market

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Sam Chandan gives a presentation of the State of the Office Market at GreenPearl Events Office Summit - June 10, 2010

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Green pearl chandan-state-of_the_office_market

  1. 1. The State of the Office Market<br />GreenPearl Office Summit | New York | June 2010<br />Sam Chandan PhD FRICS<br />Global Chief Economist and Executive Vice President<br />Real Capital Analytics<br />Adjunct Professor of Real Estate<br />The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania<br />
  2. 2. The State of the Office Market<br /><ul><li> The Economy and the Office Sector
  3. 3. Office Sector Fundamentals
  4. 4. Construction Activity
  5. 5. Office Investment and Credit Trends
  6. 6. Policy, Regulation, and Real Estate </li></ul>2<br />
  7. 7. Employment Losses Moderate<br />3<br />Year-to-Year Percent Change in Nonfarm Employment<br />Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics<br />
  8. 8. Office Fundamentals Trends<br />4<br />Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association Quarterly Data Book<br />Vacancy Rate<br />Asking Rent Change<br />
  9. 9. Office Construction and New Inventory<br />5<br />Year-to-Year Change in Private Office Construction Spending<br />Source: Census Bureau<br />
  10. 10. Economic Headwinds and Tailwinds<br />Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP<br />First Quarter 2010 (Advance Estimate)<br />Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />6<br />
  11. 11. Office Sector Investment Trends<br />7<br />Office Transaction Volume and Average Office Cap Rate<br />Source: Real Capital Analytics<br />Average Cap Rate<br />
  12. 12. Office Sector Investment Trends<br />8<br />Office Transaction Volume, Prices, and Cap Rates Through April 2010<br />Source: Real Capital Analytics<br />
  13. 13. Where the Stress Falls<br />9<br />Percentage of Transaction Volume Related to Distress<br />Source: Real Capital Analytics<br />
  14. 14. Asset Prices, Credit, and Policy Guidance<br />10<br />Moody's / REAL Commercial Property Price Index by Sector <br />Source: Real Capital Analytics, REAL<br />2000 Q4 = 1<br />Final Concentration<br />Guidance Released<br />For Comment Concentration<br />Guidance Released<br />CMBS TALF<br />Loan Workout<br />Guidance Released<br />
  15. 15. Emerging Sources of Credit<br />11<br />
  16. 16. The State of the Office Market<br />GreenPearl Office Summit | New York | June 2010<br />Sam Chandan PhD FRICS<br />Global Chief Economist and Executive Vice President<br />Real Capital Analytics<br />Adjunct Professor of Real Estate<br />The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania<br />

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