India is complex. One way to reduce the complexity is to use population numbers. We have done that. We have looked at growth, fertility, religion, migration, gender imbalance and extent of urban -ness to understand the country. Edit: On slide 9, the population of UP should be 231. 43 Million. Not Crores.

1. UNDERSTANDING INDIA
THROUGH IT'S POPULATION NUMBERS
An Analysis
- August 2021 -

2. The population of India is
more than all the countries on
the continent of AFRICA
If UTTAR PRADESH was a
country, it would be the 6th
most populated in the world
Recent immigrants and their
descendants may be more than
50% of ASSAM’s population
DID YOU KNOW?

3. Why is this
‘population trivia’
important?
This is important because the size
of the population, it’s growth, it's
changes and such factors, are
fundamental to understanding of a
range of political, social and
economic issues.

4. WHAT DO WE MEAN?
The population of India is more
than all the countries on the
continent of AFRICA … so
comparing Covid mortality of
India versus any African country
would be erroneous.
If UTTAR PRADESH was a
country, it would be the 6th most
populated in the world …
an investment in improving
outcomes here improves global
averages significantly.
Recent immigrants and their
descendants may be more than
50% of ASSAM’s population …
so ethnic unrest and flareups
seem inevitable for the short to
medium term.

5. WHAT POPULATION FACTORS
WILL WE LOOK AT?
SIZE AND
GROWTH
GROWTH AND
FERTILITY
FERTILITY AND
RELIGION
MIGRATION AND
POLITICS
THE GENDER
GAP
THE URBAN
RURAL
CONTINUUM
THEN WE ADDRESS THE BIG QUESTION,
IS INDIA OVERCROWDED?

6. SIZE AND
GROWTH

7. INDIA IS LARGE
CRORES
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
China
139
India
133
UP
23
USA
33
Indonesia
27
Pakistan
23
6th
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
• Population of India is more than that of all
continents except Asia!
• Uttar Pradesh - the most populous state in
India - would be the sixth most populous if it
were a country.
Sweden
1
NewZealand
0.5
SOURCE: Worldometer

8. Size is relevant when making comparisons.
Many routinely make analytical mistakes,
such as
• Comparing India’s Covid deaths with
those in other countries
• Celebrating India as the nth largest
economy
• Comparing Denmark’s '100% share of
renewable energy' with India's
These are not even the proverbial apples to
oranges comparison - They are more like
grape to a watermelon comparisons!
WHY DOES SIZE MATTER?

9. ISSUES IN POPULATION
Democratic
Representation
This grapes and watermelon comparison can happen outside of media too!
The Supreme Court of India requiring the Board of Control of Cricket in India to
be more democratic directed it that every state would have one vote. So now,
Sikkim with a population of 0.67 Crores has the same voting power over BCCI as
Uttar Pradesh with a population of 231.43 Crores!
An average UP district has more cricket fans than the total population of Sikkim!

10. ISSUES IN POPULATION
Unfair
Comparisons
An international example with consequences: India is often in the news as
the ‘third highest emitter of CO2’. When India has the second highest population
in the world, is it a surprise that it’s Carbon Emissions are high?
What we should be comparing is per capita emissions and the per capita rank of
India would be much lower than all developed countries. (This is but one of many
factors that should be considered).
Let us now look at the growth of population in India

11. GROWTH AND
FERTILITY

12. INDIA’S POPULATION GROWTH
W
O
RLD,2.91X
2.5 BN
7.4 BN
1950 2015
The last century has seen a sharp
growth in population in India and
also the whole world.
376 MN 1.31 MN
0.376 MN INDIA, 3.48X

13. Population
in Million
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
1990 2000 2010 2020
IS INDIA’S POPULATION STILL GROWING?
SOURCE: https://bit.ly/33cJwKQ
Yes, the population is growing …
...but the fertility rate is 2.2 and the replacement
rate for fertility is considered to be 2.1

14. Though fertility is soon expected to be below replacement,
the population is expected to grow till 2065. Why?
Population
in Million
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
IS INDIA’S POPULATION STILL GROWING?
SOURCE: https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/

15. ‘Replacement rate’ can be misleading, as it refers to a couple and not the country.
In a young society, most females have not yet given birth to their 2.1 kids. As they do
that, the population increases.
41%
0-19 yo
32%
20-39 yo
18%
40-59 yo
8%
60-79 yo
1%
80+ yo
SOURCE: https://censusindia.gov.in/2011census/C-series/C-14.html and AskHow India calculations

16. +Around 25 Years later …
As the years progress, older people die but they are fewer to start with, and there are
many more newborns than the number of the dying old.
0-19
yo
20-39
yo
40-59
yo
60-79
yo
80+
yo
New
Borns

17. The fertility of India may be near
replacement rates but it varies a lot.
It is different in different regions. Fertility
is high in poor states and low in urban
India.
It also varies by religion. The fertility in
Muslims is higher. Let us examine this first.

18. RELIGION AND
FERTILITY

19. Share of Muslims in the population
of India is increasing
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1951 1961 1971 1981 2001 2011
% of Hindus in population
% of Muslims in population
SOURCE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India

20. Muslim population has a higher growth rate
than the Hindu population …
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1951 1961 1971 1981 2001 2011
Hindus
Muslims
SOURCE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India

21. 40
30
20
10
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
… and this is reflected in decadal growth rates
Hindus
Muslims
33%
31% 31%
33%
30%
25%
21%
24% 24% 23%
20%
17%
SOURCE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India

22. YES, if you look at Pakistan
Afghanistan
NO if you look at Iran
Bangladesh
Or within India, look at a state with nearly a 2/3 Muslim population
Jammu and Kashmir
3.6
Do Islamic societies always have higher fertility?
4.6
2.1
2.1
1.6
SOURCE: https://api.worldbank.org/v2/en/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?downloadformat=excel

23. In fact, even for Pakistan and Afghanistan,
the fertility has come down from 6 just a few decades ago.
SOURCE: https://api.worldbank.org/v2/en/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?downloadformat=excel

24. The big determinant of fertility is the chance of survival of
infants.
When many infants die, parents choose to have more. But as
infant mortality falls, parents want lesser number of kids.
What does fertility depend on?
Fertility further depends on …
If low population growth is a goal, India should focus on improving these.
Urbanisation, women's empowerment and availability of contraceptives is
correlated with prosperity.
Women’s education
and empowerment
Urbanisation Availability of
contraception methods
Religiosity

25. Fertility in poor states is
generally higher than that
of rich states.
Fertility and prosperity across states
Haryana
FR 2.2
Karnataka
FR 1.7
Kerala
FR 1.6
Telangana
FR 1.7
Uttar Pradesh
FR 3.0
Bihar
FR 3.2
Jharkhand
FR 2.5
Gujarat
FR 2.2
Maharashtra
FR 1.7
Madhya
Pradesh
FR 2.7

26. ISSUES IN POPULATION
Democratic
Representation
Difference in fertility impacts politics - Voters elect Members of Parliament (MP),
who in turn elect the Prime Minister. Today, 1 MP in Tamil Nadu represents 1.8
Million people, while a Uttar Pradesh MP represents 2.9 Million.
If Lok Sabha seats had kept pace with population, the political power of North
and East states would have been much more than that of South and West states.
In 1977, the constitution was amended and number of state wise MPs was frozen,
and in 2003 the freeze extended till 2026.

27. Another consequence of fertility (and
prosperity) difference across states may be
migration.
Young people from relatively poor states go to
relatively rich states in search of employment.
How many migrate? Where do they come
from? Where do they go?

28. MIGRATION
AND POLITICS

29. MIGRATION
How many people migrate for work? Estimates differ …
Other estimates: 17% and 29% of our workforce. Even at 20% …
the absolute number comes to around 100 Million!
Census
Economic survey CMM method
Inter-state
migrant
population
Inter-district
migrant
population
Annual
migration
Railway
ticket
analysis
60 million
migrants
80 million
migrants
6 Million
migrations
51 million
migrants
9 Million
migrations
For more details, please see: https://yogesh-upadhyaya.medium.com/economic-migration-in-
india-the-who-the-why-and-the-other-good-stuff-690a584a1510

30. Economics drives migration but it does not
provide a complete explanation, since
migration is also rooted in culture.
Places that have a culture of outmigration, like
Purvanchal region, Ratnagiri, Rajasthan, Goa,
Kerala, Bengal, continue that trend.
Destinations change. From Burma, Fiji, West
Indies to Mumbai, Delhi, Surat, Punjab, Kerala.
Migration is male dominated and circular.
However, a significant percentage of migrants
marry and settle in the new place.
MIGRATION
Sources and destinations of migration

31. Punjab
Delhi
Gujarat
Maharashtra
Kerala
Goa
Rajasthan
Bihar
Bengal
SOURCES
DESTINATIONS
MIGRATION
Sources and destinations of migration
UP
Orissa

32. People vote on the basis of their identity -primarily religious, regional
and caste. Migrants as voters can change politics of a place. For example,
• New Delhi politics has to increasingly cater to migrants from UP and
Bihar
• Shiv Sena, a party once violently opposed to migrants in Mumbai, now
caters to them
But, the most striking example is Assam.

33. Migration and Politics
Assam case study
1. Migration into Assam has been taking place for well
over a century
A. Over 150 years ago …
• Tribals from Southern Bihar moved to Assam to work in the tea plantations
• Bengali Hindus came in to take up administrative positions
B. During 1900s …
• influx of Bengali Muslims, who cleared forest areas and lowlands of
Brahmaputra for agriculture.
All of this was within British controlled India
C. Post 1947, the migration continued, including from what was then
East Pakistan
D. In 1971, a large proportion of fleeing Bangladesh nationals took
refuge in Assam. It is not clear how many went back.

34. Migration and Politics
Assam case study
2. How many people in Assam are migrants and / or
descendants of migrants?
A. This is not easy to determine and all estimates are contested.
B. According to Weiner, had the growth rate in Assam been the same
as that in Rest of India, the population of the state would have been
9.5 Million rather than 19.9 Million in 1981.
C. The share of Muslim population in Assam has steadily increased
from 24% in 1971 to 34% in 2011.…
• A few scholars believe that it is because of continued migration from
Bangladesh.
• Others believe that it is because of higher fertility in Muslim community.

35. Migration and Politics
Assam case study
3. Changing demographics impacted political alignments
A. Assamese middle class was in an electoral alliance with Bengali
Muslims, during 1950 - 70
• Assamese were interested in middle class jobs and in preserving
Assamese culture, especially the language
• The Bengali Muslims were mainly interested in agriculture
B. Conflict and violent protests, in 1979
• Revised electoral rolls showed a sharp increase in registered voters, from
6.3 Million in 1972 to 8.7 Million in 1979, a 38% increase.
• This changed the attitude of Assamese Hindus towards Bengali Muslim
migrants. Measures were taken to check illegal immigration after that but
they were not very effective.

36. Migration and Politics
Assam case study
C. People of Assamese origin have been in political conflict with
‘outsiders’ for decades
D. Realignment of political alliances has been, and will remain, a key
feature of Assam society and politics
• Existence of multiple ethnic blocks of population means that there are
different voting blocks based on identity
• The different blocks enter and exit alliances with other blocks

37. WHAT POPULATION FACTORS
WILL WE LOOK AT?
SIZE AND
GROWTH
GROWTH AND
FERTILITY
MIGRATION AND
POLITICS
THE GENDER
GAP
THEN WE ADDRESS THE BIG QUESTION,
IS INDIA OVERCROWDED?
FERTILITY AND
RELIGION
THE URBAN
RURAL
CONTINUUM

38. THE GENDER
GAP

39. MISSING WOMEN IN INDIA
The ratio of women to men in population, or the Population Sex Ratio (PSR), in
India has been lower than the world average for many decades.
SOURCE: Data from UN Query tool, AskHow calculations
World
India

40. WHY ARE WOMEN MISSING IN INDIA
Earlier it was because of
• excess death for the girl child
• death while giving birth
• poor access of females to nutrition and medicines
Also because in a younger population there are fewer women. This is because
fewer females are born per thousand males births. In older populations there
are more women as women live longer if they have adequate access to
nutrition and medicine.
Now women are missing because fewer females are born.
Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB) or female births per thousand male births:
India 910
Natural 942-953

41. 1. The cultural preference for male child
This could be because sons
• take forward the last name of their parents
• have greater earning potential
• are expected to provide for the parents in old age
• do not incur dowry costs
• are needed for funeral rites
2.Prosperity allows spread of sex determination technology and abortion
3.Low Fertility, because when a couple opts for fewer kids and also has a
strong preference for sons, it is more likely that they would opt for an
abortion on the basis of the sex of the foetus
4.Culture, where the society thinks that it is OK to practice sex selective
abortion
What determines SRB?

42. DISTRIBUTION OF SRB ACROSS STATES
SOURCE: http://social.niti.gov.in/uploads/sample/health_index_report.pdf (page 44)
Haryana
832
Kerala
959
Uttar Pradesh
882
W Bengal
937
Orissa
948
Gujarat
848
Rajasthan
857
Maharashtra
876
SRB (2014-16)
Karnataka
935
Chattisgarh
963

43. 1. Persuade
Convince couples that the girl child
is as desirable as the boy child
HOW CAN WE CORRECT SRB IN INDIA?
2.Dissuade
Make sex selective abortion illegal
India has tried persuasion and
has laws against sex selective
abortion but that has not
helped much so far. Except
perhaps in Haryana.

44. Haryana has had the lowest SRB in
the country for decades. There are
early indicators however, that
things may be changing.
How did this come about?

45. • Haryana decided to extensively use decoys. Undercover
operatives (including pregnant policewomen) would go to
dubious practitioners and secretly record their interactions.
• The recordings were used to vigorously prosecute the accused.
The state also opposed bail application in many cases.
• In face of this enthusiastic application of law, many brokers and
practitioners shifted to neighbouring states.
• Haryana had to coordinate with the administration and police
in the neighbouring states of Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan,
Punjab and Uttarakhand to organise covert operations against
suspected law violators.
Haryana decides to
implement the Law

46. • Till April 2021, the state had registered 889 First Information
Reports (FIR) including 249 in the neighbouring states.
• Data from Civil Registration System (CRS) shows that the SRB
in the state has gone above 900. However, CRS is not the gold
standard for data in India. If the 2021 Census also shows
improvement, then we can be sure that Haryana has had a
remarkable achievement.
The battle is not over. Technology makes machines like
Ultra Sound smaller and portable. In vitro fertilization can
selectively implant male foetuses.
Early indications
of success

47. From birth to death.
How long do people live?
How do they die?

48. HOW LONG DO
WE LIVE? HOW
DO WE DIE?

49. HOW LONG DO WE LIVE?
These are averages of course and the
numbers vary quite a bit.
10
70
Life expectancy at birth in India is 69.
This is up 60% since 1960!
Incidentally, a life expectancy of 69
does not mean everyone will live for
69 year. The older you are, the higher
your life expectancy.
AGE in 2015 Life Expectancy
0 69
10 72
70 85

50. HOW LONG DO WE LIVE?
0
10
70
Life expectancy varies across
states, habitation type and gender
Uttar Pradesh Kerala
65.0 75.2
Villages Cities
67.7 72.4
Men Women
67.8 70.4
VS
VS
VS
SOURCE: https://censusindia.gov.in/Vital_Statistics/SRS_Life_Table/SRS%20based%20Abridged%20Life%20Tables%202013-17.pdf
How do people die?

51. 6.2 people out of every 1,000 die each year (Crude Death Rate). Unfortunately,
causes of death are not well recorded in the country. However, this is what one
survey had to say …
HOW DO WE DIE?
Other causes
22.62%
Tuberculosis
3.70%
Respiratory infections
3.90%
Unintentional injury
4.70%
Digestive diseases
4.90%
Diarrhoeal diseases
5.11%
Perinatal conditions
5.61%
Malignant & other neoplasms
6.11%
Respiratory diseases
7.61%
Abnormal clinical findings
12.41%
Cardiovascular diseases
23.32%
SOURCE: https://censusindia.gov.in/vital_statistics/causesofdeath.html

52. THE URBAN
RURAL
CONTINUUM

53. Why do we need to know
the extent of urbanisation?
India uses a strict definition of what is urban. A habitation is called urban only if
Population > 5,000 AND Density >400 people / sq km AND >75% of working
male population is engaged in nonagricultural work.
Alternative definitions change the extent of urbanisation of the country
The extent of urban-ness is important because it is a
significant determinant of prosperity. Why?
• Small and scattered rural populations cannot support
too many products or services businesses. This is one
reason that cities generate more and more of the
national income and higher paid employment.
• A lot of rural employment is in agriculture which is
progressively becoming a smaller part of the total
income of the country.

54. 26% 31%
52%
65%
Administrative
Definition
Census Definition
>5,000 people, >400 /km2
>75% male population
engaged in non-
agricultural work
Partha (2001)
People living less than
hour distance from
Urban Centre.
Tandel
> 2,500 population
(as it is in some other
countries).
HOW URBAN IS INDIA? DEPENDS...
26% 31% 52% 65%
NOTE: All data for 2011 unless otherwise stated SOURCE: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2887778
https://www.idfcinstitute.org/knowledge/publications/working-and-briefing-papers/whats-in-a-definition-a-study-on-
implications-and-suitability-of-urban-definitions-in-india-through-its-employment-guarantee/

55. • Many habitations in India are governed
as rural even though they must be
classified as urban even by India’s strict
definition.
• This is because often, neither the
residents nor the state governments are
interested in changing the governance
structure from Gram Panchayat to
Urban Local Body (ULB).
• The residents want benefits like cheaper
electricity and lesser regulation and
state government do not want to budget
for municipal expenses.
MANY PLACES PREFER TO BE RURAL

56. ISSUES IN POPULATION
Is India
overcrowded?
We started by saying that India's population is more than that of Africa. It is
much smaller than the continent in land mass. Is the country overcrowded?
Historically, population density of places was determined by agricultural
productivity and development of agriculture technology. River valleys with fertile
soils were usually very crowded.

57. ISSUES IN POPULATION
Is India
overcrowded?
Examples: i) Vast majority of Egypt’s
population lives a few miles away from
Nile. That part of Egypt is one of the
densest in the world.
ii) Java, with approximately 7% of the
Indonesia’s land mass - has more than
half of the it’s population.
iii) In half the size of United States,
more than a Billion people live in
China’s heartland.

58. ISSUES IN POPULATION
Is India
overcrowded?
India has one of the highest levels of arable lands in the world. All of Africa’s
arable land is only around 30% higher than India’s. Given that a lot of India’s
land is multi-cropped, and considering it’s history of agriculture development, it
is not surprising that the country historically had a high population.
In the last two centuries, the world increased its agricultural productivity with
cheap energy and fertilizers. Population everywhere has gone up. But regions
that had a high population to begin with, naturally had the most absolute
increase. In other words – historically crowded regions became even more
crowded.

59. ISSUES IN POPULATION
Is India
overcrowded?
India is not overcrowded.
It just has a lot of fertile land.

60. 1. India is large. Comparisons with other countries fail many
times just because the others are much smaller. Comparison is a
problem even for states of India, many of which are more
populous than most countries.
2. The population of India has grown sharply in recent decades
as has the population of the whole world.
3. Fertility rate of India is at replacement rate. However, the
population of the country is projected to grow till 2065 because
of the momentum effect.
4. The fertility rate of the country may be at replacement rates
but there are significant differences in fertility by region and
religion. These differences have implications for politics in the
country.
SUMMARY
UNDERSTANDING INDIA
THROUGH IT'S POPULATION NUMBERS

61. 5. India ill treats its women. Perhaps the worst sign of this
mistreatment is sex selective abortion. However, there may be
some good signs emerging from the state of Haryana.
6. Life expectancy at birth in the country is 69 years. It has
improved significantly since independence.
7. The country is generally considered to be rural but if we look
at alternate ways of measuring urbanization, we find that it is
nearly two thirds urban! The extent of urbanisation matters
because it is a huge determinant of economic well being.
8. Crude comparison of density of population may give the
feeling that the country is overcrowded. However, a look around
the world tells us that any land that supports agriculture has a
much higher density of population. India has a very high
proportion of such land.
SUMMARY
UNDERSTANDING INDIA
THROUGH IT'S POPULATION NUMBERS

62. • Yogesh Upadhyaya has written 15 blog pieces while researching this topic. To dive into any part of
this presentation or for information source links, you can visit his series here:
https://yogesh-upadhyaya.medium.com/list/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-population-in-india-a133762fc417
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