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Predictive Marketing: Wie sich auktionsbasierte Werbung optimieren lässt
        Niels Jensen | Client Services Director DACH




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   1
Meine Oma…




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   2
und Heute…




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   3
und Heute…




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   4
und Heute…




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   5
und Heute…




                      1
                     ―
               155.520.000.000




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   6
Predictive Marketing: Wie sich auktionsbasierte Werbung optimieren lässt!




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   7
Google und dann…




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   8
Tracking




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   9
Sales Funnel




                                                                                   < IMG 1X1 >



© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   10
Data Driven Abvertising


© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   11
Modeling Drives Bid Decisions




                                      POSITION 1
                                      Bid: $5.00
                                      CTR: 4%                                 POSITION 2
                                      CPC: $4.51
                                                                              Bid: $4.00
                                      Clicks: 150
                                                                              CTR: 3%
                                                                              CPC: $3.34
                                                                              Clicks: 100




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Click Forecasting




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Revenue Forecasting



                   USER FLOW: AD
                   AD                                                           MERCHANT                   TRANSACT




                   IMPRESSIONS                                                  CLICKS                         CONVERSIONS




                  CASH FLOW
                  $CPC                                        %CONVERSION                               $REVENUE

                 ctr = clicks / impressions                                   rpc = revenue /clicks
                 cost = clicks * cpc                                          profit = revenue - cost
                 cpa = cost / conversions                                     margin = profit / cost




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Modeling Provides Accurate Simulations



                                                                                                                    EF’s robust predictive modeling enables
                                                                                                                    advertisers to accurately forecast the impact of
                                                                                                                    budget changes on conversions and key
                                                                                                                    performance indexes.




                                                                                                                          CPA
                                                   My target Cost/Order is $600. What should my budget be and how       $175.05

                                                   much revenue can I expect?                                           $268.93
                                                                                                                        $351.10
                                                                                                                        $408.13
                                                                                                                                      Lower Budget=$1,750/day
                                                                                                                        $468.02
                                                                                                                        $511.32
                                                                                                                                      Cost/Order=$468.02
                                                                                                                        $564.53
                                                                                                                        $601.18
                                                                                                                        $651.27
                                                                                                                                      Current Budget=$3,500/day
                                                                                                                        $695.73
                                                                                                                                      Cost/Order=$695.73
                                                                                                                        $732.94
                                                                                                                        $760.38
                                                                                                                        $821.96
                                                                                                                        $827.33
                                                                                                                                      Higher Budget=$5,250/day
                                                                                                                        $907.59
                                                                                                                                      Cost/Order=$907.59
                                                                                                                        $947.75
                                                                                                                        $996.20
                                                                                                                        $1,028.89
                                                                                                                        $1,053.01
                                                                                                                        $1,074.10




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Data Driven Advertising & Predictive Modelling




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   17
Data Driven Advertising & Predictive Modelling




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   18
Predictive Marketing Platform




                                                                                                               CHANNEL           SINGLE CONVERSION

                                                                                           SEARCH




                                                                                           DISPLAY                                 TRACK
                                                              PLATFORM                                         728x90
                                                                                                                                   INTERACTIONS
                                                                                                     300x250
                                                                                                                    468x60         & ATTRIBUTE       Clear picture
                 ADVERTISER                                                                                                        VALUE             of conversion events and
               BUDGET & DATA                                                                                                                         attribution of various media
                                                                                           SOCIAL
                                                                                                                                                     interaction
                                                           X-CHANNEL MODELS                                                  …
                                                                                                      …




                                                                       DATA FEED BACK LOOPS ENABLES BETTER OPTIMIZATION




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Wer ist der Feind?




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   20
Saisonalität YoY




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   21
Saisonalität YoY




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   22
Saisonalität




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   23
Saisonalität




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   24
Der Heilige Gral im Online Marketing




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   25
Cross Channel Attribution




© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.   26
Wie findet man den “Heiligen Gral”?




                                                                                   MANAGE

                                                                                      BID
                        SEARCH
                                                                                    SERVE

                                                                                    TRACK
                        DISPLAY                                                                                      Weekly Profit from Efficient
                                                              728x90
                                                                                   ATTRIBUTE                                 Frontier
                                                                       468x60
                                                 300x250
                                                                                   OPTIMIZE
                        SOCIAL
                                                                           …        PUBLISH                Weekly Profit from
                                                 …                                                         Rules-Based Tool




                                                                                  SUPERIOR

                                   MULTI-CHANNEL
                                                                                TECHNOLOGY       UNPARALLELED
                              CAPABILITY                                                       OPTIMIZATION


© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
© 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.

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Predictive Marketing: Wie sich auktionsbasierte Werbung optimieren lässt

  • 1. Predictive Marketing: Wie sich auktionsbasierte Werbung optimieren lässt Niels Jensen | Client Services Director DACH © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 1
  • 2. Meine Oma… © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 2
  • 3. und Heute… © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 3
  • 4. und Heute… © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 4
  • 5. und Heute… © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 5
  • 6. und Heute… 1 ― 155.520.000.000 © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 6
  • 7. Predictive Marketing: Wie sich auktionsbasierte Werbung optimieren lässt! © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 7
  • 8. Google und dann… © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 8
  • 9. Tracking © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 9
  • 10. Sales Funnel < IMG 1X1 > © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 10
  • 11. Data Driven Abvertising © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 11
  • 12. Modeling Drives Bid Decisions POSITION 1 Bid: $5.00 CTR: 4% POSITION 2 CPC: $4.51 Bid: $4.00 Clicks: 150 CTR: 3% CPC: $3.34 Clicks: 100 © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
  • 13. Click Forecasting © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
  • 14. Revenue Forecasting USER FLOW: AD AD MERCHANT TRANSACT IMPRESSIONS CLICKS CONVERSIONS CASH FLOW $CPC %CONVERSION $REVENUE ctr = clicks / impressions rpc = revenue /clicks cost = clicks * cpc profit = revenue - cost cpa = cost / conversions margin = profit / cost © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
  • 15. Modeling Provides Accurate Simulations EF’s robust predictive modeling enables advertisers to accurately forecast the impact of budget changes on conversions and key performance indexes. CPA My target Cost/Order is $600. What should my budget be and how $175.05 much revenue can I expect? $268.93 $351.10 $408.13 Lower Budget=$1,750/day $468.02 $511.32 Cost/Order=$468.02 $564.53 $601.18 $651.27 Current Budget=$3,500/day $695.73 Cost/Order=$695.73 $732.94 $760.38 $821.96 $827.33 Higher Budget=$5,250/day $907.59 Cost/Order=$907.59 $947.75 $996.20 $1,028.89 $1,053.01 $1,074.10 © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
  • 16. Data Driven Advertising & Predictive Modelling © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 17
  • 17. Data Driven Advertising & Predictive Modelling © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 18
  • 18. Predictive Marketing Platform CHANNEL SINGLE CONVERSION SEARCH DISPLAY TRACK PLATFORM 728x90 INTERACTIONS 300x250 468x60 & ATTRIBUTE Clear picture ADVERTISER VALUE of conversion events and BUDGET & DATA attribution of various media SOCIAL interaction X-CHANNEL MODELS … … DATA FEED BACK LOOPS ENABLES BETTER OPTIMIZATION © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
  • 19. Wer ist der Feind? © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 20
  • 20. Saisonalität YoY © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 21
  • 21. Saisonalität YoY © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 22
  • 22. Saisonalität © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 23
  • 23. Saisonalität © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 24
  • 24. Der Heilige Gral im Online Marketing © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 25
  • 25. Cross Channel Attribution © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 26
  • 26. Wie findet man den “Heiligen Gral”? MANAGE BID SEARCH SERVE TRACK DISPLAY Weekly Profit from Efficient 728x90 ATTRIBUTE Frontier 468x60 300x250 OPTIMIZE SOCIAL … PUBLISH Weekly Profit from … Rules-Based Tool SUPERIOR MULTI-CHANNEL TECHNOLOGY UNPARALLELED CAPABILITY OPTIMIZATION © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
  • 27. © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.