1. +
The True
Measures of
Success
Compiled by
Zehady Abdullah Khan
Mathematical Science,
Department of Information & Computer Science,
Osaka University.
E-mail: a_khanzehady@yahoo.com

2. +
Introduction
 Intelligent people in any field should be aware of their
objectives.
 Success strategy depends on picking your statistics(variables
that has effect on your success).
 There are some statistics that are important and some are not.
This is very important to remember.
 Most people fail to choose the correct statistics.
 Most people have some common bias.

3. +
Common Biases
 Overconfidence
 Availability
 Status Quo

4. +
1. Overconfidence
 Deep confidence in judgments and abilities is often inconsistent
with reality.
 Most people, for example, regard themselves as better-than-
average drivers.

5. +
2. Availability
 Cause or probability of an event on the basis of how readily
similar examples come to mind—that is, how “available” they
are to us.
 Overestimating the importance of information that we’ve
encountered recently.

6. +
Not only Skill but luck
 Performance almost always depends on both skill and luck.
 A given strategy will succeed only part of the time.
 Good Strategies or Practices: Leadership, people, a fact-based
approach, focus, discipline, and the use of technology
 Some using the strategy will succeed; others will fail.

7. +
Wrong Cause for an Effect
 Say two companies pursue the same strategy
 One succeeds because of luck while the other fails.
 Wrongly assume that the favorable outcome was the result of skill and
overlook the influence of luck.
 We connect cause and effect where there is no connection.
 Lesson:
 When luck plays a part
 don’t study success to identify good strategy.
 but study strategy to see whether it consistently led to success.

8. +
3. Status Quo
 Urge to stay the same.
 Resist to face the risk that may bring change.
 Derives from our tendency to avoid a loss even if we could achieve
a big gain.

9. +
Persistent Statistics
 Statistics that are persistent and predictive reliably link cause
and effect.
 Statistics that assess activities requiring skill are persistent.
 Example: The performance of a trained sprinter running 100 meters
on two consecutive days are expected to be the same.
 Persistent statistics reflect performance
 Can reliably be controlled through the application of skill.
 Statistics must predict the result you’re seeking.

10. +Example

11. +Example

12. +
Picking Statistics
 Define your governing objective.
 A clear objective is essential to success because it guides the
allocation of your effort.
 Develop a theory of cause and effect to assess presumed
drivers of the objective.
 Three financial drivers of value creation: sales, costs, and
investments.
 Identify the specific activities that will help achieve the
governing objective.
 Evaluate and reevaluate statistics regularly.
 The drivers of value change over time, and so must your statistics.

13. +
Reference
 Michael J. Mauboussin Harvard Business Review, October
2012.
 Chief investment strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management and
an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School. He is
the author of The Success Equation (Harvard Business Review
Press, forthcoming), from which this article was developed.
 http://alfredopassos.tumblr.com/post/32462147955/the-true-
measures-of-success-by-michael-j-mauboussin

14. +
The End