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Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
Friday fink demography presentation
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Friday fink demography presentation

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  • 1. ‘within the region a sophisticated view of future demographic trends on the region economic development strategy and other strategies is required. This understanding does not appear to exist at the moment, and is needed. ….. it is possible that the population declines in absolute numbers and that it grows older at the same time. If that were the case, then this would have repercussions for the labour market, the housing market, the social and physical infrastructure of the region, and the current knowledge based growth strategy. A population which is shrinking and ageing has implications for private, public and voluntary sector actors, and needs to be anticipated in time so as to meet the challenges and grasp the opportunities’ OECD (2006) Territorial Review of Newcastle in the North East
  • 2. Basics • Births / Deaths • People who leave to go to other parts of the UK • People who come here from other parts of the UK • People who leave to go to other parts of the world • People who come here from other parts of the world
  • 3. Why Bother? • Council Tax / Planning provision of public services • Duty to promote ‘good relations’ • Spatial planning; making most effective use of natural resources & public infrastructures • Labour Supply / Customers • Marginal investment decisions (private and public) • Building size/diversity and agglomeration • Our competitors are growing – no matter what we do
  • 4. Which Population? • District boundary or wider? Or more local? • Day time / night time (workers, shoppers) • Permanent / Temporary / Seasonal (winter / summer e.g tourists) • Students? • How to define a migrant? • Can we count people?
  • 5. Problems of Counting • No specific administrative system outside (inherently inaccurate) Census • Role of UK (especially London) in international economy and travel routes • Membership of EU – ‘freedom of movement’ • Estimates of international migration are just that – based on small International Passenger Survey • How to count internal migration? • How to count illegal migrants?
  • 6. Population 19 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 20 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 ONS Estimates of Population 20 05 20 06 20 07 08 Gateshead New castle upon Tyne
  • 7. Population Change in Newcastle since 1996 285,000 280,000 275,000 270,000 265,000 260,000 255,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  • 8. NI Registrations to non UK Nationals 02/03 - 08/09 5 5 4 4 3 T h ou san ds Gateshead 3 Newcastle upon Tyne 2 2 1 1 0 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
  • 9. Thousand 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Mar 99-Feb 00 Mar 00-Feb 01 Mar 01-Feb 02 Mar 02-Feb 03 Mar 03-Feb 04 Jan 04-Dec 04 Apr 04-Mar 05 Oct 04-Sep 05 Jan 05-Dec 05 Apr 05-Mar 06 Jul 05-Jun 06 Oct 05-Sep 06 Jan 06-Dec 06 Apr 06-Mar 07 Jul 06-Jun 07 Oct 06-Sep 07 Jan 07-Dec 07 Apr 07-Mar 08 Jul 07-Jun 08 Oct 07-Sep 08 Jan 08-Dec 08 Number of People Economically Active Apr 08-Mar 09 New castle Gateshead
  • 10. Flag 4 Registrations 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Number Gateshead Newcastle upon Tyne 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08
  • 11. Thousand Ne G 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 at wc es as he tl e ad Ne up wc on as Ty tl e ne Ga t es No he ad r th Ty ne So sid u th e Ty ne s id Su e n de rla Ha nd r tl ep M oo id lU dle Re sb A dc ar ro ug an d h 2002/03 - 2008/09 Cl UA St ev o ck el an t on d -o UA n- Te es Da UA r li Co ng to un n ty UA Du Total Number of NI Registrations to non UK Nationals No rh r th am um UA be rl a nd UA
  • 12. Total Number of Jobs 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 Newcastle upon Tyne Gateshead 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
  • 13. Numbers Claiming Unemployment Benefit 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Newcastle upon Tyne 8,000 Gateshead 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
  • 14. Num ber of Children 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 19 2.5 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 Total Fertility Rates 04 20 06 20 08 Gateshead New castle upon Tyne
  • 15. Babies Born in NewcastleGateshead 2001-2008 6,000 5,000 4,000 New castle 3,000 Gateshead 2,000 1,000 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  • 16. Increases in Numbers of Births in UK Core Cities 2001-2008 20000 18000 16000 14000 2001 12000 2008 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 ol d s le ad ol r am m d el te ed o st ea ist a rp he es fi gh gh a Le ef Br h ve wc ch es es n in Sh Li tti at an rm Ne at No G G M Bi le st a wc Ne
  • 17. Percentage Increase N 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 ew ca st le G N at ew es he ca ad st le G at es h ea d Sh ef fi el d M an ch es te r Br is to l Le ed UK Core Cities 2001-2008 s Li ve rp oo Percentage Increase in Numbers of Births l N ot ti ng ha m Bi rm in g ha m
  • 18. Total Students in Higher Education (HESA) 60000 50000 40000 Northumbria Uinversity 30000 Newcastle University 20000 10000 0 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008
  • 19. Percentage of Empty Properties (Newcastle) 7.0 6.0 5.0 Percentage 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
  • 20. Number of Empty Places in Primary & First Schools in Newcastle 3500 3000 2500 T h o u san d 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jan '02 Jan '04 Jan '06 Jan '08 Jan '09
  • 21. C -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Ea s t as t G le os fo Pa rth W r e s k lan tG d os s fo rth N D or en N th e or He th at o So J es n ut m h o Je n d sm on Bl ak d el a Fa w w do n Ke n W ton in gr ov e By O ke us r So eb ut ur h n H ea to n W W al a l ke r ke rg at e D en Le ton m in gt N o ew n W b Be e s urn te nw rh ell Wo o an ol pe si d ng Sc to ot n sw oo Numnber of Emptry School Places by Ward 02-09 El d sw ic Fe k nh W am es tg at e Jan '02 Jan '04 Jan '06 Jan '08 Jan '09
  • 22. Average Size of 'one teacher' classes in Newcastle 30 27.6 25.8 25 21.5 20.3 20 Num ber of P upils Primary 15 Secondary 10 5 0 1997 2007 Year
  • 23. Domestic Gas Consumption Gwh 4500 4000 3500 3000 Giga Watt Hours 2500 Gateshead 2000 Newcastle 1500 1000 500 0 2005 2006 2007
  • 24. Numbers of Residents in Employment 250,000 200,000 150,000 Newcastle Gateshead 100,000 50,000 0 Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 2004- 2004- 2004- 2005- 2005- 2005- 2005- 2006- 2006- 2006- 2006- 2007- 2007- 2007- 2007- 2008- 2008- Dec Mar Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar 2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009
  • 25. Economic Activity 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 Gateshead 50.0 Newcastle UK 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 2004- 2004- 2004- 2005- 2005- 2005- 2005- 2006- 2006- 2006- 2006- 2007- 2007- 2007- 2007- 2008- 2008- Dec Mar Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar 2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009
  • 26. T h o u sa n d s 20 0 100 200 300 400 500 06 600 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 20 24 20 ONS Population Projections 25 20 26 20 27 20 28 20 29 20 30 20 31 New castle Gateshead
  • 27. ONS Projections Aged 20-64 350 300 250 200 T ho u san d Gateshead Newcastle 150 100 50 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
  • 28. ONS Projections Numbers of Deaths 6.0 5.0 4.0 Thousand Gateshead 3.0 New castle 2.0 1.0 0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026
  • 29. Thousands 20 0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 20 6 0 20 7 0 20 8 0 20 9 1 20 0 1 20 1 1 20 2 1 20 3 2014 1 20 5 1 20 6 1 20 7 1 20 8 1 20 9 2 20 0 2 20 1 2 20 2 2023 2 20 4 2025 2 20 6 2 20 7 2 ONS Projections Poeple Over 65 20 8 2 20 9 3 20 0 31 New castle Gateshead
  • 30. Thousands 20 0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 20 6 0 20 7 0 20 8 0 20 9 1 20 0 1 20 1 1 20 2 1 20 3 1 20 4 1 20 5 1 20 6 1 20 7 1 20 8 1 20 9 2 20 0 2 20 1 2 20 2 2 20 3 2 20 4 2 20 5 2 20 6 2 20 7 2 20 8 2 ONS Projections People Aged 85+ 20 9 3 20 0 31 New castle Gateshead
  • 31. ONS Projections of Number of Births 7 6 5 T h o o u san d 4 Gateshead New castle 3 2 1 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026
  • 32. Internal Migration (Net) 1.0 0.5 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 -0.5 Thousand Newcastle -1.0 Gateshead -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0
  • 33. Newcastle: Net Internal Migration Annual Averages 05-08 by 5 Year Age Band 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Thousand 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ -1.0 -1.5
  • 34. Net Internal Migration to(+)/from(-) Newcastle: Average Annual over 5 Years to 2008 Tees Valley South Tyneside Sunderland 400 Durham 200 0 -200 Number -400 Northum berland -600 Gateshead -800 -1000 North Tyneside -1200 Rest of UK -1400
  • 35. International Migration (Net) 3.0 2.5 2.0 Thousands 1.5 New castle Gateshead 1.0 0.5 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 -0.5
  • 36. New NI Numbers Issued in 2008 to non UK Nationals in Newcastle N=4190 France Sri Lanka Pakistan Malaysia Slovak Rep Poland Romania India Nigeria PRC
  • 37. Citizenship Ceremonies in Newcastle by Country of Origin May '04 - Aug '08 N=2296 Iran India Pakistan Philippines Iraq Bangladesh Children born in UK Afghanistan
  • 38. Babies Born In NewcastleGateshead to Mothers Born in UK 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 New castle 2,500 Gateshead 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  • 39. Babies Born in NewcastleGateshead to Mothers Not Born in UK 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 New castle 2,500 Gateshead 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  • 40. Country of Birth of Mother: Babies Born in Newcastle 2008 N=960 (exluding England & Wales N=2333) Bangladesh China Scotland Poland India Pakistan Nigeria
  • 41. Percentage of Babies Born in NewcastleGateshead to Mothers not born in UK 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 Gateshead New castle 10.0 5.0 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  • 42. The Proportion of Pupils in Newcastle Schools in 2008 with English as an Additional Language 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Nursery (1) Nursery (2) Reception 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 School Year
  • 43. Be nw Births e ll an d Sc 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 ot sw Bl oo ak d e la w By ke Ca r st le De n Ea De e st n G to n os fo E l rt h sw F a ic k wd Fe on nh a Ke m L e n to m n in g N to No ew n r bu N o th H r n r th e a Ward Je to n sm O on us d e Pa bur S o rkl n u an S o th H d s ut h e ato Je sm n o W nd W a lk al k er W e rg es at Births By Ward Newcastle upon Tyne 2004-2007 te e rh W o pe W e e s stg t G a te os W fo rt i h W ng r o o ov ls i e ng to n 2007 2006 2005 2004
  • 44. Thousand M an 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 ch es te r Le ed s Li ve rp oo l Sh ef N fi el ot d ti ng h am Br is UA to l, C it y of U Bi A N rm ew in ca g ha st le m G at es h ea d G N at ew es ca he st ad le up o n Ty n e New NI Registrations to non UK Nationals 2002/03 - 2008/09 Lo nd on

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