Impact of Syrian refugees on Jordan 2013

1. Did the Arab Spring Benefit
Economic Freedom in Jordan?
Dr. Yusuf Mansur
Economic Freedom of the Arab World Conference
October 20-21 2011

2. Table of Contents
1. Rankings
– Global Competitiveness Report
– Doing Business Report
– World Competitiveness Yearbook
– Economic Freedom Index, Heritage Foundation
– Economic Freedom of the World Index, Fraser Institute
2. Economic Developments
– Remittances
– Foreign Direct Investment
– Foreign Aid
– External and Domestic Debt
– Budget Deficit
– Trade Deficit
– Stock Market
– Unemployment
– Tourism
3. Events and Government Actions
4. Recommendations and Conclusions

3. Jordan in International Reports & Rankings
• Global Competitiveness Report, 2011/2012
Ranked 71 out of 142 countries, dropping 6 places from 65th place in 2010/2011
• Doing Business Report, 2011
Ranked 111 out of 183 countries, dropping 4 places from 107th place in 2010
• World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2011
Ranked 53 out of 59 countries, falling 3 places in 2010
• Economic Freedom Index, Heritage Foundation, 2011
Achieved a freedom score of 68.9, or 2.8 points better than last year, making its
economy the 38th freest out of 179 countries in the 2011 Index.
• Economic Freedom of the World Index, Fraser Institute, 2011
In 2009, Jordan ranked 62nd out of 141 countries with a score of 6.9 compared to 43
(score of 7.2) in 2008.

4. Global Competitiveness Indicators, 2011/2012
Major Indicators
Rank
Performance
Difference
2009-
2010
2010-2011 2011-2012
133 (
)Countries ( )139 Countries )142 Countries(
Basic Requirement 46 57 61 4
Institutions 25 41 45 4
Infrastructure 42 61 59 2
Macroeconomic Environment 105 103 97 6
Health and Basic Education 57 65 72 7
Efficiency Enhancers 66 73 78 5
Higher Education and Training 42 57 59 2
Market Efficiency 43 46 54 8
Labor Market Efficiency 106 112 107 5
Financial Market Development 52 54 65 11
Technological Readiness 61 62 59 3
Market Size 82 84 88 4
Innovation & Sophistication Factors 51 65 70 5
Business Environment
Development
49 66 68 2
Source: GIlonbanl Coovmapettiitoivneness Report, 2011/2012, World Economic Fo5ru9m 68 77 9

5. Global Competitiveness Index, Ranking per Nation,
2009/2010 to 2011/2012
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Qatar Saudi
Arabia
UAE Tunisia Oman Kuwait Bahrain Jordan Iran Egypt Algeria Lebanon Libya
Ranking
2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
Source: Global Competitiveness Report, 2011/2012, World Economic Forum
• Jordan, Egypt, Algeria and Libya have each recorded significant drops in their rankings, over the
previous year, while Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Oman and Kuwait have shown improvements in their
performances.
• Most of the nations that have shown improvements in their performances are oil producing nations,
while the non-oil producing Arab nations have shown weaker competitiveness levels.

6. Doing Business Rankings, per Indicator, 2005-2011
• The Doing Business Report, 2010/2011 measures the impediments and facilitators of businesses, in a
nation. This produces a time series of such factors as the guarantee of property rights, and the
intrusiveness of business regulations, over a time series.
• The ten factors analyzed in the Doing Business Report are detailed in the table below.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Ease of Doing Business 73 74 78 80 101 100 111
Starting a Business 127 133 133 133 119 125 127
Dealing with
Construction Permits 68 71 70 71 116 92 92
Employing Workers 30 45 30 45 48 51 N/A
Registering Property 110 106 110 109 105 106 106
Getting Credit 76 80 83 84 125 127 128
Protecting Investors 114 105 118 107 114 119 120
Paying Taxes 16 19 18 19 22 26 29
Trading Across Borders 85 51 78 59 77 71 77
Enforcing Contracts 72 128 75 128 129 124 129
Closing a Business 79 84 84 87 96 96 98
Participating Countries 135 155 175 178 181 183 183
Source: Doing Business Report, 2011, World Bank Group

7. Doing Business Ranking, per Nation, 2011
• As shown in the table below, Jordan is in the middle range of in terms of, Doing Business vis the Arab
region. However, when all the oil-producing countries are excluded, Jordan is considered advanced.
Doing Business Ranks, 2011
Jordan 111
Oman 57
Qatar 50
UAE 40
Bahrain 28
Saudi Arabia 11
Kuwait 74
Egypt 94
Yemen 105
Syria 144
Lebanon 113
Iran 129
Algeria 136
Iraq 166
Source: Doing Business Report, 2011, World Bank Group

8. World Competitiveness Yearbook, Rankings per
Primary Indicators, Jordan, 2011
• The World Competitiveness Yearbook assesses the capacity of nations in terms of
developing and upholding an environment that is conducive to free enterprise, in 59
nations.
• The Yearbook measures economic growth, infrastructure levels, enterprise efficiency,
and public sector performance, over 331 sub-issues. Jordan’s rank has dropped from
37th place in 2007, to 53rd place in 2011.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Overall Competitiveness 37 34 41 50 53
Economic Performance 44 51 53 45 55
Government Efficiency 32 25 32 39 31
Business Efficiency 31 21 44 46 52
Infrastructure 36 34 40 52 52
Source: World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2011, IMD Foundation

9. World Competitiveness Yearbook, Rankings per
Sub-Indicator, Jordan, 2011
• Jordan’s ranking has dropped, in most indicators relating to the
World Competitiveness Yearbook.
2009 Ranking 2011 Ranking
Domestic Economy 39 55
International Trade 6 31
International Investment 35 52
Employment 56 48
Prices 44 40
Public Finance 41 38
Fiscal Policy 21 15
Institutional Framework 32 37
Business Legislation 24 35
Societal Framework 38 43
Productivity and Efficiency 46 59
Labor Market 56 49
Finance 28 41
Management Practices 44 52
Attitudes and Values 39 39
Basic Infrastructure 51 59
Technological Infrastructure 39 49
Scientific Infrastructure 26 49
Health and Environment 46 46
Education 35 46
Source: World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2011, IMD Foundation

10. Economic Freedom Index, Heritage Foundation,
Jordan Rankings per Indicator, 2011
• The Heritage Foundation offers scores of 0 to 100, on a wide variety of issues affecting economic
freedom, where a score of 100 implies maximum freedom. In addition, the Heritage Foundation
provides rankings for 141 countries where Jordan placed 38th freest.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Rank 27 36 29 42 51 52 38
Overall Score 66.7 63.7 64.5 64.1 65.4 66.1 68.9
Business Freedom 70 56 54.9 56.3 68.9 65.6 65.8
Trade Freedom 62.4 62.2 74.2 74.8 78.8 78.8 78.8
Fiscal Freedom 79.2 78.2 83.2 83.7 83 83 92.7
Government Spending 63.5 58.3 57.4 53.2 56.9 55.1 60.9
Monetary Freedom 81.8 84.4 83.5 80.4 80.2 73.2 81.4
Investment Freedom 70 50 50 50 50 65 70
Financial Freedom 70 70 60 60 60 60 60
Property Rights 50 50 50 55 55 55 55
Freedom From Corruption 46 53 57 53 47 51 50
Labor Freedom 73.9 74.8 74.6 74.6 74.1 74.2 74.2
Participating Countries 127 130 141 157 179 179 179
Source: Economic Freedom Index, 2011, Heritage Foundation

11. Economic Freedom of the World Index, 1980-2009
• The Economic Freedom of the World Index of 2011 relies on 2009 data. Jordan achieved a score of
6.84 in 2009 (where a score of 10 indicates perfect freedom), and a rank of 55 (a drop of twenty nine
places from 2005). Overall, Jordan has most freedom: access to sound money; freedom to trade
Rating &
Rank
Gov Size
Legal
Structure &
Security of
Property
Rights
Access to Sound
Money
Source: Economic Freedom of the World Index (Fraser), Jordan, 2011
Freedom to
Trade
Regulation of
Credit, Labor &
Business
1980
Rating 5.5 5.33 2.54 6.82 6.52 6.08
Rank 54 44 76 32 33 30
1985
Rating 5.84 5.14 3.86 7.74 6.32 6.01
Rank 40 54 79 30 36 35
1990
Rating 6.05 7.27 4.37 6.2 6.56 5.98
Rank 42 14 74 69 37 40
1995
Rating 6.42 6.38 5.95 7.15 6.47 6.24
Rank 48 48 45 53 70 39
2000
Rating 7.24 6.08 7.22 9.67 7.02 6.22
Rank 30 67 27 7 63 53
2005
Rating 7.38 6.27 6.31 9.21 7.74 7.35
Rank 26 76 50 37 20 29
2008
Rating 7.14 5.64 6.56 8.35 7.67 7.45
Rank 40 87 35 58 22 24
2009
Rating 6.84 4.37 6.31 9.27 7.18 7.04
Rank 55 109 45 35 34 39

12. Population, Corruption and Freedom Indicators
Country Population
(Million)
Population
under 25
GDP per capita,
000 at PPP
Democracy Corruption Freedom Index of 100
= most
unstable
Algeria 35.9 47.5% 8.2 125 105 141 49.7
Bahrain 1.2 43.9% 24 122 48 153 36.5
Djibouti 0.9 57.2% 2.3 126 91 159 NA
Egypt 84.6 52.3% 5.9 138 98 130 65.7
Iraq 31.4 60.6% 4 111 175 144 65.7
Jordan 6.4 54.3% 5.2 117 50 140 48.7
Kuwait 3.5 37.7% 40.6 114 54 115 21.7
Lebanon 4.3 42.7% 13.4 86 127 115 30.7
Libya 6.5 47.4% 18.7 158 146 192 71
Mauritania 3.4 59.3% 1.9 115 143 118 57.4
Morocco 32.4 47.7% 4.7 116 85 146 46.8
Oman 3.3 51.5% 23.3 143 41 153 58.4
Palestine 4.1 64.4% 2.9 93 NA 181 NA
Qatar 1.7 33.8% 66.9 137 19 146 20.7
KSA 27.1 50.8% 22.9 160 50 178 52.5
Somalia 10.1 63.5% 0.6 NA 178 181 NA
Sudan 43.2 59% 2.3 151 172 165 NA
Syria 22.5 55.3% 4.7 152 127 178 67.3
Tunisia 10.4 42.1% 8.6 144 59 186 49.4
UAE 6.7 31% 27.2 148 28 153 24.3
Yemen 24.3 65.4% 2.9 146 146 173 86.6
Note: Ranking of democracy (out of 167 countries) ; ranking of corruption (out of 178 countries) ; ranking of press
freedoms (out of 196 countries)
Source: The Economist

13. Economic Developments – Remittances
Total workers’ remittances receipts decreased in the first seven months of 2011 by
4.8% compared to the same period in 2010 to reach JD 1,425.4 million.
620
600
580
560
540
520
500
480
Remittances, Q1 2010-Q2 2011
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011
JD Million
Source: “Recent Monetary and Economic Developments in Jordan” Central Bank of Jordan, August 2011.
Research Department “Monthly Statistical Bulletin” Central Bank of Jordan, April 2011

14. Economic Developments – Foreign Direct
Investment
Year FDI (JD Million)
2006 2,512.7
2007 1,859.1
2008 2,005.7
2009 1,722.9
2010 1,208
2011 (Q1) 249.7
2011 (Q2) 311.2
Source: Research Department “Monthly Statistical Bulletin”
Central Bank of Jordan, April 2011
Foreign Direct investment
decreased in the first two
quarters of 2011 by 15% from
JD 655 million of the same
period in 2010 to JD 561
million.

15. Economic Developments – Foreign Aid
• Comparing Jan-July 2010 to Jan-July
2011, it is clear that the value of
foreign grants in Jordan has nearly
quadrupled (or 392%), amounting to
JD 1.028 billion at the end of the
period.
• Saudi Arabia granted Jordan some
$1.45 bn to help reduce its budget
deficit.
• In addition, Jordan and the US signed
five grant agreements worth $359.3
million. Note that the table to the left
excludes this aid. Making the grants
total US$1.81 bn.
Source: “Jordan, U.S. sign $359 Grant Deals”, Ministry of
Planning and International Cooperation, October 2011
http://www.mop.gov.jo/pages.php?menu_id=115&local_type=1&local
_id=551&local_details=1&local_details1=
Foreign Grants, Jan 2010 – Jul 2011
Year Month
Foreign Grants
(JD Million)
2010 Jan 35.500
2010 Feb 17.900
2010 Mar 14.800
2010 Apr 35.400
2010 May 25.400
2010 Jun 28.800
2010 Jul 50.000
2010 Aug 40.800
2010 Sep 30.000
2010 Oct 10.000
2010 Nov -
2010 Dec 113.100
2011 Jan 17.800
2011 Feb -
2011 Mar -
2011 Apr -
2011 May 297.200
2011 Jun -
2011 Jul 709.000
Source:"Jordan Receives $1 Billion Grant From Saudi Arabia" Ammon
News, 2011 <http://en.ammonnews.net/article.aspx?articleNO=13030>

16. Economic Developments – External Debt and
Domestic Debt
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
Jul…
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan…
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
JD Million
External Debt
Domestic Debt
Source: Research Department “Monthly Statistical
Bulletin” Central Bank of Jordan, April 2011
• Domestic debt increased by 5%
or 349 million between July
2010 to July 2011
• External Debt increased by
557.2 million or 13.6% across
the same period
• Public Debt now stands at
57.4% of GDP compared to
61.4% of GDP at the end of
2010.

17. Economic Developments – Budget Deficit
Deficit/Surplus
Monthly
JD Millions
Dec-10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Total
Including
Grants
-243.4 9 -195.2 -53.6 91.2 106.8 -218.3 590.6 87.1
Excluding
Grants
-356.5 -8.8 -195.2 -53.6 91.2 -190.4 -218.3 -118.4 -1050
Source: Research Department “Monthly Statistical Bulletin” Central Bank of Jordan, April 2011
The impact of the Saudi grant can be clearly seen in the table above. The deficit,
excluding grants, stood at JD1050 million at the end of July 2011, while that
including grants reached a surplus of JD 87.1 million for the same period.
Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit now stands at JD -1151.4
million for the first two quarters of 2011. This is an increase of 52.3% or JD 602.1
million over that of the same period of last year.

18. Economic Developments – Trade Deficit
Source: Research Department “Monthly Statistical Bulletin” Central Bank of Jordan, April 2011
• Compared to July 2010, Jordan’s trade deficit rose 15.4% to reach nearly JD 562.6
million in July 2011.
• The value of imports amounted to JD 1.030 m compared to JD 897.1 m or an increase
of 13% for the same period.
• Meanwhile, the value of exports reached JD 467.8 m compared to JD 409.8 m, an
increase of 12.4%.

19. Economic Developments – Stock Market
Value Traded JD 2011 2010 Change (%)
Jan-Sep 2,348,359,930 5,662,850,599 -59%
Start of
Arab
Spring
Source: Amman Stock Exchange, Monthly Statistical Bulletin, Awraq Investments H1 results,
October 2011
Value of shares traded for the first 9 months of 2011 was 59%
lower than that of the same period of 2010.

20. Economic Developments – Unemployment
12.4
12.2
Unemployment
13.5
11.8
13.1
13.2
13.1
14
13.5
13
12.5
12
11.5
11
10.5
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011
Source: “Quarterly Unemployment Rates for 2009 and the Third Quarter of 2011” Department of Statistics,
Jordan, 2011
• Between Q4 2010 and Q3 2011, the unemployment rate rose by 1.3%
• Unemployment in Jordan fluctuated between the first quarter of 2010 and
the third quarter of 2011, recording a low of 11.8% in the Q4 2010 and a
high of 13.5% in Q3 2010.

21. Economic Developments – Tourism
• The number of visitors to the Kingdom dropped by 13% in the first nine months of the year
compared to the same period in 2010, according to official statistics from the Ministry of
Tourism & Antiquities.
• According to the Ministry of Tourism’s monthly report, 5,097,368 tourists visited the
country between January and September 2011, while the figure stood at 5,878,373 in the
same period last year.
• The report also showed a 31% drop in the number of Jordanian expatriates who visited the
country in the same period. Approximately 662,625 Jordanian expatriates visited the
Kingdom in the first nine months of the year, compared to 965,227 in the same period of
2010.
• The report attributed the drop in the total number of visitors and the number of Jordanian
expatriates to the current unrest in the region.
• The number of tourists from the Gulf states, however, rose by 28% in the period to
958,635 tourists, compared to 751,385 in the first nine months of 2010, according to the
report.

22. Timeline of Protests and Government Actions
14/01/2011
Protests led by trade
unionist and leftist
parties took place
calling for the removal
of Samir Rifai
government due to their
inability to rein in prices
and poverty.
Government Action Event
21/1/2011
Despite Rifai’s efforts to
alleviate Jordan’s
economic misery, 5,000
people protested in
Amman and other cities.
25/02/2011
The protests reached a
peak of around 10
thousand people at Al-
Husaini mosque
demanding political and
economical reform.
Local police separated
anti-government
protesters and pro-regime
25/03/2011
Clashes occurred between
pro-government supporters
and more than 2,000
protesters at Gamal Abdel
Nasser Circle.
On the same day, 35
thousand gathered in Al-
Hussein Gardens west of
Amman to express loyalty
and allegiance to the King.
15/04/2011
2,000 protesters
demanded greater
political
representation, with
half of them
demonstrating in
Amman. Also, a crowd
of a few hundred
Islamists clashed with
the gendarmerie in
Zarqa.
07/10/2011
After a lull in
August and
September, former
prime minister
Ahmed Obeidat led
over 2,000 people
in a march in
Amman to push
their demand for
the downfall of Al-
Bakhit’s
government saying
it had failed to deal
with corruption and
adopt political
reform.
Jan Oct
18/01/2011
Samir Rifai
government
reversed a rise
in fuel price.
26/01/2011
King speech promises
political and economic
reform and
Constitution
amendments.
01/02/2011
King Abdullah II
dismissed Rifai’s
government and
ordered Marouf Al-
Bakhit to form the new
cabinet, pledging
enhanced freedoms,
economic reform and
political reforms. Also,
a $500m package of
price cuts in fuel and
essential goods, was
announced, along with
salary increases for
civil servants and the
military.
supporters.
15/03/2011
The King appointed a
53-member committee
with government
officials and opposition
leaders to draft new
laws for parliamentary
elections and political
parties, setting a
three-month deadline.
However, the Muslim
Brotherhood refused
to participate until the
dissolution of
parliament with a new
prime minister elected
from a parliamentary
majority.
28/03/2011
Following the clashes,
King Abdullah II called
for national unity,
stating that economic
and political reforms
were on their way.
The Parliament
rejected calls to
reduce the king's
power. And the
government decided to
ban its supporters
from demonstrating in
the capital, while the
opposition was allowed
to demonstrate in
specially designated
areas in Amman.
Government appoints
a new committee to
engage in national
dialogue.
12/06/2011
Commemorating 12
years on the throne,
the King said he will
relinquish his right to
appoint prime
ministers and
cabinets, instead
leaving it to the
elected parliamentary
majority to form future
cabinets.
He also said that more
reforms would be
announced in the
future, including new
election and political
party laws.

23. Current Government Status Quo
When was it approved???
The table below illustrates the distribution of the Budget Annex:
Budget Annex Purpose
66% To maintain subsidies on bread,
barley and gas
16% Outstanding government
procurement and construction
payments
14% The Royal Decree granted JD 100
to all retired and active security,
government military personnel
4% Regional Development Fund for
Governorates
In addition, the government issued international Euro bonds last year, which
have declined 10% in value, making it difficult for the government to issue
new bonds

24. Conclusions
Economic Indicator Effect
Remittances 13.5% July 2011 – July 2010
Foreign Direct
Investment
15% first two quarters of 2010 vs. first two
quarters of 2011
Foreign Aid 329% comparing Jan-July 2010 to Jan-July
2011, amounting to JD 1.024 b.
External and Domestic
Debt
Domestic debt increased by 5% or 349 m
between July 2010 to July 2011; External debt
increased by 557.2 m or 13.6%
Budget Deficit Current account deficit stands at JD -1151.4 m
for the first two quarters of 2011, which is a
52.3% or JD 602.1 m increase on the same period
of last year
Trade Deficit Rose by 15.4% between July 2010–July 2011
Stock Market Value traded at Amman Stock Exchange [ASE]
declined by 50.3% since December of 2010.
The ASE general index decreased by 17.1% for
the same period.
Unemployment Between Q4 2010 and Q3 2011, the
unemployment rate rose by 11.1%
Tourism Number of visitors dropped by 13% from Jan-
Sept in 2011 compared to the same period in 2010

25. So, Did the Arab Spring Enhance
Economic Freedom?
Thank You!