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Activating MENA's Private Sector
- 1. Activating MENA’s Private Sector Caroline Freund ERF Annual Conference Cairo, March 20, 2016
- 2. MENA’s Growth Challenge: The China Mirror 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 GDPgrowth2000s Unemployment,total Percent MENA China Source: World Bank, WDI
- 3. Too Few Large Firms Sources: World Bank and Van Ark et. al. 2010. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 China India Morocco Tunisia Jordan Egypt Percent of Employment (Firms with 100+ workers)
- 4. Misallocation of Resources Industrial productivity growth happens as resources move to the most productive sectors. And to the most productive firms. Labor productivity and the firm’s lifecycle Share of employment in medium and large firms (percent change) Source: World Bank 2014.
- 5. Branding Development: US at the turn of last century and the BRICS this century 5 Brazil Tunisia Jordan China Morocco India Source: GDP per capita from Maddison Project 2013. Yemen Russia Egypt
- 6. Where are the Arab Founders 16.7% 50% 33.3% 5.5% 41.7%52.8% 2001 2014 founder non-finance other self-made (finance and resources) inherited share of billionaires Lots of entrepreneurs From MENA working outside the region.
- 7. Which Entrepreneurs Get Rich? Chile v. Tunisia 7 • 1985 same level of development, 2014 Chile is three times richer • Chile has 12 billionaires in 2014, Tunisia 0 Horst Paulman Founder: Censocud First hypermarket in 1976 645 stores in Latin America Marouen Mabrouk Owner: French chain Casino (and Orange) Married to former President Ben Ali’s daughter • Business environment encouraged large outward looking firms in Chile. • Ben Ali clan bought state companies and lured foreign investors in Tunisia.
- 8. Too Few Large Firms Brazil China Egypt India Japan Lebanon Morocco Russia United States Vietnam .1.2.3 Share of billionaires .1 .2 .3 Share of Global 2000 billshare firmshare
- 9. Exporter Data • Individual firms matter • MENA countries lack a strong group of large exporters • Exporters relatively stagnant • Too little FDI in manufacturing
- 10. Growth Challenge • Creative destruction is limited in MENA. • Destructive creation: government intervention, SOEs, and SME promotion. • Missing high productivity, large firms to transform the private sector. Solution: Deregulation, privatization, and global integration.