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Rent Growth Cools Off
Jobs Outpace Nation
Property Values Hit Post-Bubble Best
Seattle’s Sturdy
Economy
Multifamily Report Winter 2018
2
SEATTLE MULTIFAMILY
Market Analysis
Winter 2018
Contacts
Paul Fiorilla
Associate Director of Research
Paul.Fiorilla@Yardi.com
(800) 866-1124 x5764
Jack Kern
Director of Research and Publications
Jack.Kern@Yardi.com
(800) 866-1124 x2444
Author
Adina Marcut
Associate Editor
Tech Scene Continues to Thrive
Recent Seattle Transactions
Fueled by the continued expansion of the technology sector and population
growth, Seattle’s multifamily market remains healthy. However, the metro is
showing signs of slowing, following the robust gains of the last several years.The
metro has fallen from the list of top U.S. metros in year-over-year rent growth, and
was negative in the most recent three-month period.That could be a short-term
blip, but the weight of new supply and declining affordability could signal more
moderate growth moving forward.
Job growth has been outpacing the national average since 2012. In the 12 months
ending in October, the metro added 38,200 jobs, a 2.5% increase. Gains were
led by the government sector, which added 8,100 positions.The tech industry
continues to prosper, with the information sector adding 4,100 jobs, a 3.9% year-
over-year change. As part of the metro’s tech industry growth, companies such as
Amazon, Google and Facebook are expanding in Puget Sound.
After reaching a cycle high in 2016, multifamily development has cooled off, with
roughly 8,500 units coming online in the 12 months through October.With nearly
71,800 units in different stages of development—of which more than a third are
under construction—rent growth is expected to temper. More than $2.4 billion in
multifamily assets changed hands as of October, mostly in suburban markets.Yardi
Matrix forecasts rents to appreciate by 3.7% by year’s end.
City: Bellevue, Wash.
Buyer: Equity Residential
Purchase Price: $177 MM
Price per Unit: $504,285
Venn at Main
City: Seattle
Buyer: Weidner Investment Services
Purchase Price: $225 MM
Price per Unit: $716,356
Tower 12 Shorewood Heights
Radius
City: Mercer Island, Wash.
Buyer: Greystar
Purchase Price: $210 MM
Price per Unit: $325,581
City: Seattle
Buyer: Kennedy Wilson
Purchase Price: $141 MM
Price per Unit: $500,000
On the cover: Photo by aiisha5/iStockphoto.com
To Subscribe
Hollie Zepke
Audience Development Specialist
Hollie.Zepke@Yardi.com
(800) 866-1124 x5389
Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 3
Seattle vs. National Rent Growth (Sequential 3 Month, Year-Over-Year)
Rent Trends
„„	 Rent growth in the metro fell to 3.7% in October 2017 from 6.5% in 2016, but remains above the 2.3%
national average. The monthly rent was $1,751 as of October, $393 above the national average. Healthy job
growth—which has been outpacing the nation’s average since 2012—coupled with a 1.9% population increase
is likely to keep demand for housing robust.
„„	 Rent growth in the region has decelerated, caused in large part by a heavy construction of luxury supply.
Deliveries will add nearly 4% to stock in 2017. Rents in the Lifestyle segment rose 3.0% year-over-year, up to an
average of $1,960, while rents in the working-class Renter by Necessity segment increased 4.9%, to $1,489.
„„	 Submarkets with the highest rent growth included Enumclaw (15.3%), Kent (8.9%), Mill Creek (8.1%) and
Belltown (7.6%), while submarkets with the highest rental rate included Bellevue ($2,473), Belltown ($2,440) and
Mercer Island ($2,232).
„„	 With Seattle’s occupancy rate at 96.0% for stabilized properties as of September, the metro’s lack of affordable
rental options and ongoing new deliveries are likely to put a damper on rent growth.Yardi Matrix forecasts rents
to appreciate by 3.7% by year-end.
Seattle Rent Growth by Asset Class (Sequential 3 Month, Year-Over-Year)
Source: YardiMatrix
Source: YardiMatrix
32,988 Units
16,644 Units
22,138 Units
Planned Prospective Under Construction
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume in Millions Number of Properties
Transactions: Total Volume (Seattle)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
National Seattle
Rent: YoY vs National (Seattle)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity
Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Seattle)
32,988 Units
16,644 Units
22,138 Units
Planned Prospective Under Construction
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume in Millions Number of Properties
Transactions: Total Volume (Seattle)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
National Seattle
Rent: YoY vs National (Seattle)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity
Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Seattle)
Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 4
Seattle vs. National Employment Growth (Year-Over-Year)
Economic Snapshot
„„ 	 The job market remains strong, as the metro added 38,200 jobs in the year ending in September, a 2.5%
increase, 70 basis points above the national average.The unemployment rate remains low, at 4.1% as of August.
„„ 	 Growth was led by the government sector, which added 8,100 jobs, followed closely by trade, transportation
and utilities (7,800), which was helped in part by the $54 billion SoundTransit 3 project, which will expand the
existing Link light rail system in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties.
„„ 	 The information sector remains a strong economic driver, with 4,100 jobs added, up 3.9% year-over-year. Many
Bay Area firms are increasing their footprint in the metro, as employees move to the Puget Sound for a lower
cost of living. Google’s new 600,000-square-foot campus, Amazon’sTilt49, a 306,000-square-foot campus and
Facebook’s double footing contributed to the 7 million square feet of office under construction across the
Seattle/Puget Sound region, of which 6.8 million square feet are located in Seattle and 750,000 square feet on
the Eastside and South King County.
„„ 	 The only sector that lost jobs was manufacturing, which contracted by 5,800 workers, representing a -3.4% year-
over-year change. Boeing’s move was the primary factor.
Seattle Employment Growth by Sector (Year-Over-Year)
Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics (not seasonally adjusted)
Current Employment Year Change
Code Employment Sector (000) % Share Employment %
90 Government 224 13.2% 8,100 3.8%
40 Trade,Transportation and Utilities 314 18.5% 7,800 2.5%
65 Education and Health Services 215 12.7% 6,900 3.3%
70 Leisure and Hospitality 172 10.1% 5,400 3.2%
60 Professional and Business Services 258 15.2% 5,400 2.1%
50 Information 109 6.4% 4,100 3.9%
80 Other Services 61 3.6% 2,800 4.8%
55 Financial Activities 87 5.1% 2,100 2.5%
15 Mining, Logging and Construction 98 5.8% 1,400 1.4%
30 Manufacturing 163 9.6% -5,800 -3.4%
Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
National Seattle
Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Seattle)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Seattle
Supply: Percentage of Stock (Seattle)
32,988 Units
16,644 Units
22,138 Units
Supply: Development Pipeline as of Oct 2017 (Seattle)
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Seattle
Transactions: Price Per Unit (Seattle)
Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 5
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Rent/Income Mort/Income
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Rent/Income Mort/Income
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Seattle Rent vs. Own Affordability as a Percentage of Income
Demographics
Affordability
„„	 The median home price reached a new cycle high of $427,033 in the first half of 2017, with the average
mortgage payment comprising 24% of the median income. With the average rental rate, at $1,751 as of
October, accounting for 25% of income, owning continues to be slightly more affordable than renting.
„„	 As rents continue to grow and new development is concentrated more on the luxury segment in core
submarkets, the city council approved the Mandatory Housing Affordability, which will require developers to
either include affordable housing units in each project or contribute to a fund dedicated to future housing
projects. The requirements target areas such as Downtown, University District, South Lake Union and Uptown.
Seattle Median Home Price
Sources: YardiMatrix, Moody’s Analytics
Source: Moody’s Analytics
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
National 313,998,379 316,204,908 318,563,456 320,896,618 323,127,513
Seattle Metro 3,552,815 3,609,617 3,667,042 3,727,097 3,798,902
Sources: U.S. Census, Moody’s Analytics
Population
„„	 Seattle has added 246,000
residents since 2012, a 6.9%
growth rate, well above the
2.9% U.S. average.The metro
is expected to attract more
residents, due in part to
growth in employment.
Seattle vs. National Population
Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 6
Seattle vs. National Completions as a Percentage of Total Stock (as of October 2017)
Supply
„„	 Multifamily development in Seattle is robust, with more than 8,500 units delivered year-to-date through
October. Completions are expected to reach 10,000 for the year, which would mark a 4.6% increase in stock,
slightly down from 2016’s cycle high of 11,000 units.
„„	 Development is likely to remain high, as more than 22,000 units were under construction as of October.
According to Yardi Matrix’latest survey, occupancy for stabilized properties was 96.0% as of September. The
increase in population, coupled with the expansion of major companies attracting young workers in the
area, demand is likely to remain robust, especially in the Puget Sound submarkets.
„„	 Deliveries are concentrated in the high-demand cores of Seattle and Belltown (6,879 units under
construction), as well as South Lake Union area, where Amazon and Google’s campuses are underway. Other
submarkets with high development activity include Redmond (2,058 units), First Hill (1,201) and North
Seattle (1,082).
„„	 Onni Group of Cos.’s 41-story twin-tower—the largest project underway—will add 1,179 units and more
than 28,000 square feet of retail space to the South Lake Union submarket.
Development Pipeline (as of October 2017)
Source: YardiMatrix
Source: YardiMatrix Source: YardiMatrix
Seattle Completions (as of October 2017)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
National Seattle
Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Seattle)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Seattle
Supply: Percentage of Stock (Seattle)
32,988 Units
16,644 Units
22,138 Units
Planned Prospective Under Construction
Supply: Development Pipeline as of Oct 2017 (Seattle)
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Seattle
Transactions: Price Per Unit (Seattle)
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
20
40
60
80
100
Transactions: Total Volume (Seattle)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
National Seattle
Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Seattle)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Seattle
Supply: Percentage of Stock (Seattle)
32,988 Units
16,644 Units
22,138 Units
Planned Prospective Under Construction
Supply: Development Pipeline as of Oct 2017 (Seattle)
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Seattle
$3,000
$4,000
60
80
100
Transactions: Total Volume (Seattle)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
3.0%
4.0%
Employment Grow
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
2009 2010
Transactions: Price Per U
Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 7
Seattle Sales Volume and Number of Properties Sold (as of October 2017)
Transactions
„„	 More than $2.4 billion in properties changed hands year-to-date through October. Although that is running
at a rate below 2016’s $3.9 billion sales volume, investor demand remains strong. Seattle has become more
attractive to institutional investors, as the market grows and increases its international flavor. Per-unit prices
hit a new cycle high of $269,606, well above the $135,622 national average. Acquisition yields for Class C
assets in King County traded in the 4% to 5% range, while in Pierce County, returns for similar assets were
roughly 120 basis points higher.
„„	 Investors’appetite was geographically diverse, mostly in secondary submarkets such as Belltown ($401
million), Kent ($331 million), Mercer Island ($306 million) and University ($257 million). The largest transaction
of the year was Weidner Investment Services’$225 million acquisition of Tower 12 from Continental Properties.
The sale amounted to $716,356 per unit.
Seattle vs. National Sales Price per UnitTop Submarkets for Transaction Volume1
Source: YardiMatrix
Source: YardiMatrix
Submarket Volume ($MM)
Belltown 401
Kent 331
Mercer Island 306
University 257
Redmond 249
Renton 229
Federal Way 205
Bellevue–West 204
Source: YardiMatrix
1
From November 2016 to October 2017
0.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Seattle
32,988 Units
16,644 Units
22,138 Units
Planned Prospective Under Construction
Supply: Development Pipeline as of Oct 2017 (Seattle)
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume in Millions Number of Properties
Transactions: Total Volume (Seattle)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
National Seattle
Rent: YoY vs National (Seattle)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Seattle)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Seattle)
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Seattle
Transactions: Price Per Unit (Seattle)
Read All About It!
Downtown Seattle
Office High-Rise
Changes Hands
Get the latest Seattle real estate
news at
Weidner Acquires Seattle
Community for $225M
Transwestern JV Buys
Seattle-Area Office Park
Why Grosvenor Likes
Seattle’s Condo Market
Photo by Art Wager/iStockphoto.com
Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 9
Seattle Submarkets
Area # Submarket
1 Central Everett
2 Paine Field
3 Silver Lake
4 Lynnwood
5 Mill Creek
6 Edmonds
7 Mountlake Terrace
8 Thrashers Corner
9 Marysville/Monroe
10 Shoreline
11 Bothell
12 Juanita
13 North Seattle
14 Ballard
15 Greenlake/Wallingford
Area # Submarket
16 University
17 Kirkland
18 Redmond
19 Woodinville/Totem Lake
20 Magnolia
21 Queen Anne
22 Capitol Hill/Eastlake
23 Madison/Leschi
24 Bellevue–West
25 Bellevue–East
26 Belltown
27 First Hill
28 Central
29 Mercer Island
30 Factoria
Area # Submarket
31 Issaquah
32 West Seattle
33 Beacon Hill
34 Rainier Valley
35 White Center
36 Riverton/Tukwila
37 Renton
38 Burien
39 Seatac
40 Des Moines
41 Kent
42 Federal Way
43 Auburn
44 Enumclaw
Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 10
Definitions
Lifestyle households (renters by choice) have wealth sufficient to own but have chosen to rent. Discretionary
households, most typically a retired couple or single professional, have chosen the flexibility associated with renting
over the obligations of ownership.
Renter-by-Necessity households span a range. In descending order, household types can be:
„„ 	 A young-professional, double-income-no-kids household with substantial income but without wealth needed to
acquire a home or condominium;
„„ 	 Students, who also may span a range of income capability, extending from affluent to barely getting by;
„„ 	 Lower-middle-income (“gray-collar”) households, composed of office workers, policemen, firemen, technical
workers, teachers, etc.;
„„ 	 Blue-collar households, which may barely meet rent demands each month and likely pay a disproportionate share
of their income toward rent;
„„ 	 Subsidized households, which pay a percentage of household income in rent, with the balance of rent paid
through a governmental agency subsidy. Subsidized households, while typically low income, may extend to
middle-income households in some high-cost markets, such as New York City;
„„ 	 Military households, subject to frequency of relocation.
These differences can weigh heavily in determining a property’s ability to attract specific renter market segments. The
five-star resort serves a very different market than the down-and-outer motel. Apartments are distinguished similarly,
but distinctions are often not clearly definitive without investigation. The Yardi® Matrix Context rating eliminates that
requirement, designating property market positions as:
Market Position Improvements Ratings
Discretionary A+ / A
High Mid-Range A- / B+
Low Mid-Range B / B-
Workforce C+ / C / C- / D
The value in application of the Yardi® Matrix Context rating is that standardized data provides consistency; information
is more meaningful because there is less uncertainty. The user can move faster and more efficiently, with more accurate
end results.
The Yardi® Matrix Context rating is not intended as a final word concerning a property’s status—either improvements or
location. Rather, the result provides reasonable consistency for comparing one property with another through reference
to a consistently applied standard.
To learn more about Yardi® Matrix and subscribing, please visit www.yardimatrix.com or call Ron Brock, Jr., at
480-663-1149 x2404.
What’s the best choice
for CRE news & views?
Visit our websites and sign up for our free emailed newsletters at
cpexecutive.com/subscribe and multi-housingnews.com/subscribe.
With so much information out there, selecting the best source
can be daunting. Keep it simple. Commercial Property Executive
and Multi-Housing News will keep you up-to-date on real estate
news, data, trends and analysis—daily, weekly or monthly. Trust
the leading integrated industry information resource to help you
make informed decisions and achieve your business goals.
cpexecutive.com multi-housingnews.com
Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 12
DISCLAIMER
ALTHOUGH EVERY EFFORT IS MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS AND COMPLETENESS OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THIS
PUBLICATION, THE INFORMATION IS PROVIDED“AS IS”AND YARDI MATRIX DOES NOT GUARANTEE, WARRANT, REPRESENT OR UNDERTAKE
THAT THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IS CORRECT, ACCURATE, CURRENT OR COMPLETE. YARDI MATRIX IS NOT LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS, CLAIM,
OR DEMAND ARISING DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY FROM ANY USE OR RELIANCE UPON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.
COPYRIGHT NOTICE
This document, publication and/or presentation (collectively,“document”) is protected by copyright, trademark and other intellectual
property laws. Use of this document is subject to the terms and conditions of Yardi Systems, Inc. dba Yardi Matrix’s Terms of Use (http://
www.yardimatrix.com/Terms) or other agreement including, but not limited to, restrictions on its use, copying, disclosure, distribution and
decompilation. No part of this document may be disclosed or reproduced in any form by any means without the prior written authorization
of Yardi Systems, Inc. This document may contain proprietary information about software and service processes, algorithms, and data
models which is confidential and constitutes trade secrets. This document is intended for utilization solely in connection with Yardi Matrix
publications and for no other purpose.
Yardi®, Yardi Systems, Inc., the Yardi Logo, Yardi Matrix, and the names of Yardi products and services are trademarks or registered trademarks of
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Seattle’s Sturdy Economy | Multifamily Report Winter 2018

  • 1. Rent Growth Cools Off Jobs Outpace Nation Property Values Hit Post-Bubble Best Seattle’s Sturdy Economy Multifamily Report Winter 2018
  • 2. 2 SEATTLE MULTIFAMILY Market Analysis Winter 2018 Contacts Paul Fiorilla Associate Director of Research Paul.Fiorilla@Yardi.com (800) 866-1124 x5764 Jack Kern Director of Research and Publications Jack.Kern@Yardi.com (800) 866-1124 x2444 Author Adina Marcut Associate Editor Tech Scene Continues to Thrive Recent Seattle Transactions Fueled by the continued expansion of the technology sector and population growth, Seattle’s multifamily market remains healthy. However, the metro is showing signs of slowing, following the robust gains of the last several years.The metro has fallen from the list of top U.S. metros in year-over-year rent growth, and was negative in the most recent three-month period.That could be a short-term blip, but the weight of new supply and declining affordability could signal more moderate growth moving forward. Job growth has been outpacing the national average since 2012. In the 12 months ending in October, the metro added 38,200 jobs, a 2.5% increase. Gains were led by the government sector, which added 8,100 positions.The tech industry continues to prosper, with the information sector adding 4,100 jobs, a 3.9% year- over-year change. As part of the metro’s tech industry growth, companies such as Amazon, Google and Facebook are expanding in Puget Sound. After reaching a cycle high in 2016, multifamily development has cooled off, with roughly 8,500 units coming online in the 12 months through October.With nearly 71,800 units in different stages of development—of which more than a third are under construction—rent growth is expected to temper. More than $2.4 billion in multifamily assets changed hands as of October, mostly in suburban markets.Yardi Matrix forecasts rents to appreciate by 3.7% by year’s end. City: Bellevue, Wash. Buyer: Equity Residential Purchase Price: $177 MM Price per Unit: $504,285 Venn at Main City: Seattle Buyer: Weidner Investment Services Purchase Price: $225 MM Price per Unit: $716,356 Tower 12 Shorewood Heights Radius City: Mercer Island, Wash. Buyer: Greystar Purchase Price: $210 MM Price per Unit: $325,581 City: Seattle Buyer: Kennedy Wilson Purchase Price: $141 MM Price per Unit: $500,000 On the cover: Photo by aiisha5/iStockphoto.com To Subscribe Hollie Zepke Audience Development Specialist Hollie.Zepke@Yardi.com (800) 866-1124 x5389
  • 3. Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 3 Seattle vs. National Rent Growth (Sequential 3 Month, Year-Over-Year) Rent Trends „„ Rent growth in the metro fell to 3.7% in October 2017 from 6.5% in 2016, but remains above the 2.3% national average. The monthly rent was $1,751 as of October, $393 above the national average. Healthy job growth—which has been outpacing the nation’s average since 2012—coupled with a 1.9% population increase is likely to keep demand for housing robust. „„ Rent growth in the region has decelerated, caused in large part by a heavy construction of luxury supply. Deliveries will add nearly 4% to stock in 2017. Rents in the Lifestyle segment rose 3.0% year-over-year, up to an average of $1,960, while rents in the working-class Renter by Necessity segment increased 4.9%, to $1,489. „„ Submarkets with the highest rent growth included Enumclaw (15.3%), Kent (8.9%), Mill Creek (8.1%) and Belltown (7.6%), while submarkets with the highest rental rate included Bellevue ($2,473), Belltown ($2,440) and Mercer Island ($2,232). „„ With Seattle’s occupancy rate at 96.0% for stabilized properties as of September, the metro’s lack of affordable rental options and ongoing new deliveries are likely to put a damper on rent growth.Yardi Matrix forecasts rents to appreciate by 3.7% by year-end. Seattle Rent Growth by Asset Class (Sequential 3 Month, Year-Over-Year) Source: YardiMatrix Source: YardiMatrix 32,988 Units 16,644 Units 22,138 Units Planned Prospective Under Construction $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 0 20 40 60 80 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Volume in Millions Number of Properties Transactions: Total Volume (Seattle) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% National Seattle Rent: YoY vs National (Seattle) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Seattle) 32,988 Units 16,644 Units 22,138 Units Planned Prospective Under Construction $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 0 20 40 60 80 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Volume in Millions Number of Properties Transactions: Total Volume (Seattle) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% National Seattle Rent: YoY vs National (Seattle) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Seattle)
  • 4. Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 4 Seattle vs. National Employment Growth (Year-Over-Year) Economic Snapshot „„ The job market remains strong, as the metro added 38,200 jobs in the year ending in September, a 2.5% increase, 70 basis points above the national average.The unemployment rate remains low, at 4.1% as of August. „„ Growth was led by the government sector, which added 8,100 jobs, followed closely by trade, transportation and utilities (7,800), which was helped in part by the $54 billion SoundTransit 3 project, which will expand the existing Link light rail system in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties. „„ The information sector remains a strong economic driver, with 4,100 jobs added, up 3.9% year-over-year. Many Bay Area firms are increasing their footprint in the metro, as employees move to the Puget Sound for a lower cost of living. Google’s new 600,000-square-foot campus, Amazon’sTilt49, a 306,000-square-foot campus and Facebook’s double footing contributed to the 7 million square feet of office under construction across the Seattle/Puget Sound region, of which 6.8 million square feet are located in Seattle and 750,000 square feet on the Eastside and South King County. „„ The only sector that lost jobs was manufacturing, which contracted by 5,800 workers, representing a -3.4% year- over-year change. Boeing’s move was the primary factor. Seattle Employment Growth by Sector (Year-Over-Year) Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics (not seasonally adjusted) Current Employment Year Change Code Employment Sector (000) % Share Employment % 90 Government 224 13.2% 8,100 3.8% 40 Trade,Transportation and Utilities 314 18.5% 7,800 2.5% 65 Education and Health Services 215 12.7% 6,900 3.3% 70 Leisure and Hospitality 172 10.1% 5,400 3.2% 60 Professional and Business Services 258 15.2% 5,400 2.1% 50 Information 109 6.4% 4,100 3.9% 80 Other Services 61 3.6% 2,800 4.8% 55 Financial Activities 87 5.1% 2,100 2.5% 15 Mining, Logging and Construction 98 5.8% 1,400 1.4% 30 Manufacturing 163 9.6% -5,800 -3.4% Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% National Seattle Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Seattle) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 National Seattle Supply: Percentage of Stock (Seattle) 32,988 Units 16,644 Units 22,138 Units Supply: Development Pipeline as of Oct 2017 (Seattle) $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 National Seattle Transactions: Price Per Unit (Seattle)
  • 5. Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 5 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Rent/Income Mort/Income $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Rent/Income Mort/Income $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Seattle Rent vs. Own Affordability as a Percentage of Income Demographics Affordability „„ The median home price reached a new cycle high of $427,033 in the first half of 2017, with the average mortgage payment comprising 24% of the median income. With the average rental rate, at $1,751 as of October, accounting for 25% of income, owning continues to be slightly more affordable than renting. „„ As rents continue to grow and new development is concentrated more on the luxury segment in core submarkets, the city council approved the Mandatory Housing Affordability, which will require developers to either include affordable housing units in each project or contribute to a fund dedicated to future housing projects. The requirements target areas such as Downtown, University District, South Lake Union and Uptown. Seattle Median Home Price Sources: YardiMatrix, Moody’s Analytics Source: Moody’s Analytics 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 National 313,998,379 316,204,908 318,563,456 320,896,618 323,127,513 Seattle Metro 3,552,815 3,609,617 3,667,042 3,727,097 3,798,902 Sources: U.S. Census, Moody’s Analytics Population „„ Seattle has added 246,000 residents since 2012, a 6.9% growth rate, well above the 2.9% U.S. average.The metro is expected to attract more residents, due in part to growth in employment. Seattle vs. National Population
  • 6. Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 6 Seattle vs. National Completions as a Percentage of Total Stock (as of October 2017) Supply „„ Multifamily development in Seattle is robust, with more than 8,500 units delivered year-to-date through October. Completions are expected to reach 10,000 for the year, which would mark a 4.6% increase in stock, slightly down from 2016’s cycle high of 11,000 units. „„ Development is likely to remain high, as more than 22,000 units were under construction as of October. According to Yardi Matrix’latest survey, occupancy for stabilized properties was 96.0% as of September. The increase in population, coupled with the expansion of major companies attracting young workers in the area, demand is likely to remain robust, especially in the Puget Sound submarkets. „„ Deliveries are concentrated in the high-demand cores of Seattle and Belltown (6,879 units under construction), as well as South Lake Union area, where Amazon and Google’s campuses are underway. Other submarkets with high development activity include Redmond (2,058 units), First Hill (1,201) and North Seattle (1,082). „„ Onni Group of Cos.’s 41-story twin-tower—the largest project underway—will add 1,179 units and more than 28,000 square feet of retail space to the South Lake Union submarket. Development Pipeline (as of October 2017) Source: YardiMatrix Source: YardiMatrix Source: YardiMatrix Seattle Completions (as of October 2017) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% National Seattle Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Seattle) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 National Seattle Supply: Percentage of Stock (Seattle) 32,988 Units 16,644 Units 22,138 Units Planned Prospective Under Construction Supply: Development Pipeline as of Oct 2017 (Seattle) $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 National Seattle Transactions: Price Per Unit (Seattle) $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 20 40 60 80 100 Transactions: Total Volume (Seattle) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% National Seattle Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Seattle) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 National Seattle Supply: Percentage of Stock (Seattle) 32,988 Units 16,644 Units 22,138 Units Planned Prospective Under Construction Supply: Development Pipeline as of Oct 2017 (Seattle) $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 National Seattle $3,000 $4,000 60 80 100 Transactions: Total Volume (Seattle) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3.0% 4.0% Employment Grow $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 2009 2010 Transactions: Price Per U
  • 7. Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 7 Seattle Sales Volume and Number of Properties Sold (as of October 2017) Transactions „„ More than $2.4 billion in properties changed hands year-to-date through October. Although that is running at a rate below 2016’s $3.9 billion sales volume, investor demand remains strong. Seattle has become more attractive to institutional investors, as the market grows and increases its international flavor. Per-unit prices hit a new cycle high of $269,606, well above the $135,622 national average. Acquisition yields for Class C assets in King County traded in the 4% to 5% range, while in Pierce County, returns for similar assets were roughly 120 basis points higher. „„ Investors’appetite was geographically diverse, mostly in secondary submarkets such as Belltown ($401 million), Kent ($331 million), Mercer Island ($306 million) and University ($257 million). The largest transaction of the year was Weidner Investment Services’$225 million acquisition of Tower 12 from Continental Properties. The sale amounted to $716,356 per unit. Seattle vs. National Sales Price per UnitTop Submarkets for Transaction Volume1 Source: YardiMatrix Source: YardiMatrix Submarket Volume ($MM) Belltown 401 Kent 331 Mercer Island 306 University 257 Redmond 249 Renton 229 Federal Way 205 Bellevue–West 204 Source: YardiMatrix 1 From November 2016 to October 2017 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 National Seattle 32,988 Units 16,644 Units 22,138 Units Planned Prospective Under Construction Supply: Development Pipeline as of Oct 2017 (Seattle) $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 0 20 40 60 80 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Volume in Millions Number of Properties Transactions: Total Volume (Seattle) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% National Seattle Rent: YoY vs National (Seattle) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Seattle) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Seattle) $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 National Seattle Transactions: Price Per Unit (Seattle)
  • 8. Read All About It! Downtown Seattle Office High-Rise Changes Hands Get the latest Seattle real estate news at Weidner Acquires Seattle Community for $225M Transwestern JV Buys Seattle-Area Office Park Why Grosvenor Likes Seattle’s Condo Market Photo by Art Wager/iStockphoto.com
  • 9. Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 9 Seattle Submarkets Area # Submarket 1 Central Everett 2 Paine Field 3 Silver Lake 4 Lynnwood 5 Mill Creek 6 Edmonds 7 Mountlake Terrace 8 Thrashers Corner 9 Marysville/Monroe 10 Shoreline 11 Bothell 12 Juanita 13 North Seattle 14 Ballard 15 Greenlake/Wallingford Area # Submarket 16 University 17 Kirkland 18 Redmond 19 Woodinville/Totem Lake 20 Magnolia 21 Queen Anne 22 Capitol Hill/Eastlake 23 Madison/Leschi 24 Bellevue–West 25 Bellevue–East 26 Belltown 27 First Hill 28 Central 29 Mercer Island 30 Factoria Area # Submarket 31 Issaquah 32 West Seattle 33 Beacon Hill 34 Rainier Valley 35 White Center 36 Riverton/Tukwila 37 Renton 38 Burien 39 Seatac 40 Des Moines 41 Kent 42 Federal Way 43 Auburn 44 Enumclaw
  • 10. Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 10 Definitions Lifestyle households (renters by choice) have wealth sufficient to own but have chosen to rent. Discretionary households, most typically a retired couple or single professional, have chosen the flexibility associated with renting over the obligations of ownership. Renter-by-Necessity households span a range. In descending order, household types can be: „„ A young-professional, double-income-no-kids household with substantial income but without wealth needed to acquire a home or condominium; „„ Students, who also may span a range of income capability, extending from affluent to barely getting by; „„ Lower-middle-income (“gray-collar”) households, composed of office workers, policemen, firemen, technical workers, teachers, etc.; „„ Blue-collar households, which may barely meet rent demands each month and likely pay a disproportionate share of their income toward rent; „„ Subsidized households, which pay a percentage of household income in rent, with the balance of rent paid through a governmental agency subsidy. Subsidized households, while typically low income, may extend to middle-income households in some high-cost markets, such as New York City; „„ Military households, subject to frequency of relocation. These differences can weigh heavily in determining a property’s ability to attract specific renter market segments. The five-star resort serves a very different market than the down-and-outer motel. Apartments are distinguished similarly, but distinctions are often not clearly definitive without investigation. The Yardi® Matrix Context rating eliminates that requirement, designating property market positions as: Market Position Improvements Ratings Discretionary A+ / A High Mid-Range A- / B+ Low Mid-Range B / B- Workforce C+ / C / C- / D The value in application of the Yardi® Matrix Context rating is that standardized data provides consistency; information is more meaningful because there is less uncertainty. The user can move faster and more efficiently, with more accurate end results. The Yardi® Matrix Context rating is not intended as a final word concerning a property’s status—either improvements or location. Rather, the result provides reasonable consistency for comparing one property with another through reference to a consistently applied standard. To learn more about Yardi® Matrix and subscribing, please visit www.yardimatrix.com or call Ron Brock, Jr., at 480-663-1149 x2404.
  • 11. What’s the best choice for CRE news & views? Visit our websites and sign up for our free emailed newsletters at cpexecutive.com/subscribe and multi-housingnews.com/subscribe. With so much information out there, selecting the best source can be daunting. Keep it simple. Commercial Property Executive and Multi-Housing News will keep you up-to-date on real estate news, data, trends and analysis—daily, weekly or monthly. Trust the leading integrated industry information resource to help you make informed decisions and achieve your business goals. cpexecutive.com multi-housingnews.com
  • 12. Seattle Multifamily | Winter 2018 12 DISCLAIMER ALTHOUGH EVERY EFFORT IS MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS AND COMPLETENESS OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THIS PUBLICATION, THE INFORMATION IS PROVIDED“AS IS”AND YARDI MATRIX DOES NOT GUARANTEE, WARRANT, REPRESENT OR UNDERTAKE THAT THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IS CORRECT, ACCURATE, CURRENT OR COMPLETE. YARDI MATRIX IS NOT LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS, CLAIM, OR DEMAND ARISING DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY FROM ANY USE OR RELIANCE UPON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. COPYRIGHT NOTICE This document, publication and/or presentation (collectively,“document”) is protected by copyright, trademark and other intellectual property laws. Use of this document is subject to the terms and conditions of Yardi Systems, Inc. dba Yardi Matrix’s Terms of Use (http:// www.yardimatrix.com/Terms) or other agreement including, but not limited to, restrictions on its use, copying, disclosure, distribution and decompilation. No part of this document may be disclosed or reproduced in any form by any means without the prior written authorization of Yardi Systems, Inc. This document may contain proprietary information about software and service processes, algorithms, and data models which is confidential and constitutes trade secrets. This document is intended for utilization solely in connection with Yardi Matrix publications and for no other purpose. Yardi®, Yardi Systems, Inc., the Yardi Logo, Yardi Matrix, and the names of Yardi products and services are trademarks or registered trademarks of Yardi Systems, Inc. in the United States and may be protected as trademarks in other countries. All other product, service, or company names mentioned in this document are claimed as trademarks and trade names by their respective companies. © 2018 Yardi Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved.