Yara International ASA reported strong results for the second quarter of 2014. Key points include:
- Higher earnings per share compared to the same period last year.
- Improved European commodity margins due to lower natural gas prices.
- Continued growth in deliveries of value-added NPK fertilizers and industrial products.
- EBITDA increased compared to the second quarter of 2013, driven by higher volumes, improved prices and margins, and lower natural gas costs in Europe.
2. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
1
๏ฌ Strong result
๏ฌ Lower nitrate deliveries amid early end to season in Europe
๏ฌ Continued strong NPK deliveries and value-added premiums
๏ฌ Improved European commodity margins due to lower gas price
๏ฌ Continued Industrial segment growth
Summary second quarter
4. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
3
๏ฌ Continued robust fertilizer demand
๏ฌ Stable urea prices, production curtailed in China and Ukraine
๏ฌ Western Europe nitrogen fertilizer industry deliveries 8% lower, season to
date 2% higher
๏ฌ Tight phosphate markets, following a short-lived correction in April and May
๏ฌ Strong demand for value-added fertilizer products
Fertilizer market development
6. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
5
Lower US nitrogen deliveries, stable in Europe
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
Domestic Imports
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
Production Net imports
West EuropeUSA
+2%
Million tons N Million tons N
-8%
Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries.
Total nitrogen deliveries based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson and Yara estimates
7. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
13/14
Source: BOABC, CFMW
12/13
Chinese urea: strong export volume increase,
limited production increase
11/12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Black Sea
USD/t
Chinese exports
(kilotons)
Chinese production
(kilotons)
Season-to-date 65.7 mt
(64.6 mt season-to-date last year)
Year-to-date 29.7 mt
(29.6 mt year-to-date last year)
Season-to-date 10.8 mt
(7.9 mt season-to-date last year)
Year-to-date 3.8 mt
(1.3 mt year-to-date last year)
14. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14
USD/t
Nitrogen upgrading margins1
(monthly publication prices)
Urea CFR CAN (46% N) NH3 CFR (46% N)
Value above gas
Value above
ammonia
Nitrate premium
above urea
Yara EU gas cost *20
Strong nitrate premium at season close
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14
European nitrate premium2
(quarterly Yara realized)
2) Yara European realized nitrate prices compared with urea
publication prices with one month time lag. All numbers in USD
per ton of CAN equivalents.1) All prices in urea equivalents
15. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
14
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14
USD/t
Phosphate upgrading margins
DAP, fob USG
Rock, fob NA *1.4
Value above
raw material
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
USD/t
NPK premium over blend1
NH3, fob Black Sea *0.22
DAP, fob Morocco
MOP, cfr NWE
Urea, fob Black sea
Improved NPK premiums
Weighted average global
premium above blend cost
1) Export NPK plants, average grade 19-10-13, net of
transport and handling cost.
Nitrate premium
16. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
15
Lower natural gas cost in Europe
Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts
*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 10 July 2014
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
USD/
MMBtu
Zeebrugge (1-month lag) Yara Europe
Yara European gas & oil cost
1
(51) (36)
(660)
(950)
(700)
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
200
3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
NOK
millions
Actual for quarter
July 2014 estimate**
** Based on forward prices as of 10 July 2014
Change in European energy cost
19. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
18
Net interest-bearing debt development
3,347
860
2,606
2,591
Net debt
Jun 14*
OtherFX gain/(loss)
124
Yara DividendInvestments net
1,580
Net operating
capital change
1,382
Dividends
received
from equity-
accounted
investees
26
Cash
earnings**
2,758
Net debt
Mar 14*
* Included in net interest-bearing debt are external bank time deposits (4-12 months), this is part of other current assets in balance sheet
** Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges
NOK millions
21. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
20
๏ฌ Farm economics strong overall, despite grain price decline
๏ฌ Break-even urea export price from China; domestic coal price and export
tax regime are key for global commodity nitrogen pricing going forward
๏ฌ Capacity outside China: limited greenfield additions next 2 years, and
curtailments currently in Ukraine
๏ฌ Yara European 3Q deliveries in line so far, and improved commodity-N
margins with lower gas cost
Prospects
22. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
21
250 kt NPK expansion in Uusikaupunki, Finland
250
1,250
1,000
Current Expansion End 2015
๏ฌ Strong NPK demand growth
outside Europe presents solid
business case
๏ฌ Project to install new
granulator adds ~250 kt
annual capacity
๏ฌ Competitive capex at ~200
EUR/t capacity addition
๏ฌ Completion end 2015
Annual NPK production capacity (kt)
24. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
23
NOK millions
Total Yara contribution
Value-added upgrading and distribution make
up larger part of Yaraโs contribution
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Commodity overseas
Commodity Europe
Fertilizer upgrade & distribution
Trade
4Q13 2Q142Q134Q122Q122Q10 4Q112Q114Q10
26. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
25
4.0
4.4 4.2 4.4
4.1
3.3
2.5 2.3
2.9
3.4 3.5
4.0
3.6 3.9
5.2
4.6
4.1 4.2
4.8
5.7
7.6
8.3
8.3 8.6
7.9
7.7
8.1
8.3 8.3 8.5
7.5
7.8
8.1
6.9
5.9
6.4
4.7
6.6
9.0
9.5
9.2 9.0 9.3 9.1
9.1
10.3 11.1
10.3 10.1 10.7 9.7
7.8
6.2
8.6
6.6
7.6
10.1
11.1
10.9 10.8 11.0 11.0 10.8
11.4 11.5
11.9
10.8
11.2 11.3
9.2
7.3
8.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global Zeebrugge day ahead Yara Europe
Gas & oil cost
USD per MMBtu
Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts
Yearly averages 2009 โ 2010, quarterly averages for 2011-14 with forward prices* for 3Q14 and 4Q14
*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 10 July 2014
27. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
26
Currency exposure affecting P&L
At the beginning of the third quarter 2014
1. The US dollar debt generating p&l exposure was USD 950 million
โข Kept as hedge of future earnings and to finance inventories in emerging markets
โข Around 80% towards EUR and BRL, the rest towards NOK and emerging market
currencies
โข The debt level in emerging markets will fluctuate with fertilizer seasons
2. Additional p&l exposure from internal currency positions vs. NOK
โข Payables mainly CAD (200 million)
โข Receivables mainly EUR (165 million), GBP (25 million) and AUD (45 million)
33. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
32
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1/2004 1/2005 1/2006 1/2007 1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014
Index
FAO price index
Cereals Price Index Cereals 5 year avg. Food Price Index Food 5 year avg.
Farm economics support fertilizer demand
Source: FAO
34. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
33
Source: USDA July 2014
For 2014/15, global grain production and
consumption close to balanced
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E 15F
Million tons
Consumption Production
Grain consumption and production Days of consumption in stocks
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E 15F
Days
36. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
35
Source: CRU urea update July 2014 . Consumption data source is IFA.
Year Driving regions
Urea capacity growth relative
to nitrogen capacity
Excluding China Excluding China
2013
Qatar 23%
Algeria 16%
1.6%
2014
Algeria 16%
UAE 15%
1.5%
2015
Saudi Arabia 22%
USA 20%
1.9%
2016
USA 48%
Malaysia 12%
2.0%
2017
Nigeria 34%
USA 26%
2.1%
Gross annual addition 2013-2017 ~1.8%
Assumed annual closures ~0.5%
Net annual addition 2011-2015 ~1.3%
Trend consumption growth from 2002 2.1%
Projected nitrogen capacity additions outside
China
37. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
36
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Index
June 2007=1
13/14 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
Source: Fertilizers Europe, Yara estimate for June
European producer nitrate stocks ending the
season close to average
38. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
37
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14
Thousand contracts
Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Non-commercialsโ net long position in corn
39. IR-Date: 2014-07-18
38
Key value drivers โ quarterly averages
342
308 314
338
299
379
336 354
414
358
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)/Urea
granular fob Egypt (USD/t)
322
294 291
345 354
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
CAN cif Germany (USD/t)
4.0
3.6 3.8
5.2
4.6
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)
10.3 10.1
10.7
9.7
7.6
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Zeebrugge day ahead (USD/MMBtu)
5.8
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.0
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
NOK/USD exchange rate
500
430 417 438
485
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t)
Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank