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FTTx DEPLOYMENT TRENDS AND TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION
2
100 MBPS COVERS HIGH-END USER DEMAND BY 2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VideoBandwidth(Mbps)
3DTV 2160p
HDTV 2160p
3DTV 1080p
HDTV 1080p
3DTV 720p
HDTV 720p
SDTV
15% CAGR
Source: Alcatel-Lucent
3
MARKETING BANDWIDTH IS STILL IMPORTANT
END-USER INTEREST IN
MEGAHERTZ
END-USER INTEREST IN
MEGAPIXELS
Source: Google Trends
END-USER INTEREST IN
MEGABIT
4
FACTORS INFLUENCING
FTTx STRATEGY SELECTION
Building owners know there
are government broadband
targets, and have started to
charge money to enter
buildings
Operator in APAC
30% of FTTH subscribers
change their mind when
the engineer asks where he
can drill holes in the wall
for the fiber
Operator in Europe
To connect 7,000 house-
holds, we needed 30,000
phone calls in 40
languages just to schedule
home visits
Operator in Western Europe
Engineers are not allowed
to enter the home if the
husband is not at home, and
need to reschedule the
appointment
Operator in the Middle East
5
SOLVING THE BITRATE EQUATION
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
ADSL/CO FTTN
250 subs
FTTCurb
48 subs
FTTB
32 subs
FTTPole
16 subs
FTTWall
1 sub
FTTH
Other Factors
Home Connection & Installation
Home Equipment
Civil Works & Cables
Cabinets or POPs
Splitters
Equipment
FTTx COST COMPARISON, CAPEX + INSTALLATION
INVESTMENT
• From FTTN (4x) to FTTH (15x)
• The closer to the subscriber, the
closer the cost to FTTH
1
TIME TO MARKET
• Deploying FTTH is time consuming
• Re-using existing copper can speed
up deployment
2
BANDWIDTH
• FTTH: 1G and more
• FTTx: 100M (VDSL2 Vectoring
today), G.fast evolution to 100s
3
OTHER FACTORS
• (-) Aerial fiber, existing ducts
• (+) difficulty to enter the home
4
6
SERVICE PROVIDERS MIX COPPER AND FIBER
TO REDUCE COST AND ACHIEVE FAST TTM
FTTB
FTTN
CO
FTTH
Strategy
Exploring

 Vectoring plans publicly announced

FTTdp
 
7
VECTORING
Removing the Copper Speedbump
EACH VDSL2 LINE
INTERFERES WITH OTHER
LINES IN CABLE BUNDLE
BUNDLE WITH COPPER PAIRS
(TELEPHONE LINES)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200
at 400m
with normal VDSL240Mbps
100Mbpsat 400m
with VDSL2 Vectoring
Downstreambitrate[Mbps]
Distance[m]
Optimal VDSL2 performance
8
100Mbps @ 400m
DOWNSTREAM
40Mbps @ 400m
UPSTREAM SAME PERFORMANCE
FOR ALL LINES=
VECTORING DELIVERS PREDICTABLE HIGH SPEED FOR ALL LINES
SINGLE LINE RATE
VECTORING RATE
VDSL2 RATE
9
FTTH FTTCurb
FTTN
1000s-
10000s
100s
10s
From ultra-
high capacity
FTTH …
FTTB
… over FTTN/B
solutions with
vectoring …
… to flexible
FTTCurb micronodes
with vectoring
FTTdp
The End to end Story
10
NEXT IN DSL: G.FAST
HIGH BITRATES
•Standard targets:
• 150Mbps @ 250m
• 200Mbps @ 200m
• 500Mbps @ 100m
• Up to 1Gbps <100m
3
SHORT DISTANCE
• To reduce attenuation at high
frequencies
2
BITS/s/Hz
106MHz 212MHz
VDSL2 VECTORED
FREQUENCY [MHz]17MHz
G.FAST VECTORED
0
1
3 2
MORE BANDWIDTH
• G.fast: up to 106 or 212 MHz
• Limitation on bits/s/Hz to
manage design complexity
1
11
TYPICAL APPLICATIONS FOR
G.FAST & G.FAST VECTORING
FTT… NODE CURB MANHOLE POLE WALL FRONTDOORBUILDING
>200 METER
> 100 SUBS
VDSL2 VECTORING
<200 METER
10s OF SUBS
VDSL2 VECTORING
EVOLUTION TO G.FAST VECTORING
10s OF METERS
1 SUB
VDSL2
EVOLUTION TO G.FAST
a.k.a. “FTTdp”
(Distribution Point)
12
FTT-DP – Fiber to the Drop Point
Fiber to The Drop Point : 1 to 1
 Allow to offer GPON connection to end users refusing
installation of an ONT: 30% of the subscribers
 SFU: single Family Unit.
No MDUs or multi subscribers interfaces
 Indoor device only as first step
Service delivery
o target performances at 100 meters: > 100Mbps
oVDSL2 profile: 17a with evolution to 30a (HW ready)
o No Coax cable
o Reverse Power feeding
o Customer self-install
oFall back scenario: ADSL2+ with By-pass
mechanism: loss of power, churn, installation
1 DPU per apartment
Active equipment
~FTTH
single-port DPU CPE
CPE
CPE
single-port DPU
Optical connection box
G-010V-P
BRING VDSL2 NEAR/IN THE HOME
GPON uplink
G-010V-P
VDSL2
Reverse
Power
• GPON ONT with VDSL2 port as user interface
• Allows to bring GPON to the home, without having to touch in-house CAT3 wiring.
• First product: SFU
- Single family unit (single VDSL2 port)
• Indoor installation only at the start
• VDSL2 17a & 30a support
• Target service delivery: > 100 Mbps DN / 50 Mbps UP
• G.INP (physical retransmission) and SRA
• Reverse power feeding
• Customer self-install
• Fall back using by path relay in case ONTs is out of service
15
• Dimension Targets (indoor, now inclusive cable protection) :
- 200 * 98 * 45 mm INCLUSIVE PROTECTOR
VDSL2 Indoor ONT G–010V-P
• Copper pairs: 2 connectors
- Line to_CO and line to_CPE: RJ-45 connectors
• 1 optical connector
• 2 connectors :
- CRAFT : RJ45 : (Serial Link)
- Connector for external alarms collection
- 1 barrel connector for External power
FIBER TO THE DISTRIBUTION POINT (FTTdp)
VDSL2 (17a, 30a) NOW, G.FAST IN 2015
• Gradual deeper fiber deployment: FTTdp / FTTB
• To boost bit rates beyond what is possible from cab
• To optimise Cost of fiber deployments
• Multi-port DPU (distribution point unit)
• Typically requires vectoring (or anti-crosstalk)
• Typically reverse powered (shared)
• Open for outdoor deployment. Vectoring not in scope for indoor
• Facilitate FTTH
• Stay out of house / apartment with fiber
 reduce cost of FTTH
• Single-port DPU
• No vectoring needed
• Reverse powered (independent per user)
single-port DPU CPE
1 DPU per apartment
CPE
CPE
CPE
CPE
CPE
multi-port DPU
FTTB ~FTTH
FTTcurb
manhole,
mini-cabinet,
pole-mount, …. single-port DPU
multi-port DPU
Remote Power Feeding
Local Power Feeding
Reverse Power Feeding
CO DPU
CPEs
CO DPU
CO DPU
CPEs
CPEs
CPEs
CPEs
CPEs
Reverse Power Feeding of DPU
Deployment Example outdoor :
Save on DROP Fiber cost and Home rewiring
ONTpc
ONTpc
Splitter
Fiber
VDSL Modem
+ PoE Injector
ONT
FTTdp
FTTH
Splitter
IP Network
Existing copper cable
Client
Optical fiber
GPON
ONT
V2CO
Bridge
Distance <200mOLT
StrategyFAST BROADBAND
Solving the bandwidth - cost - time equation:
Combining fiber, VDSL2, Vectoring, and Bonding to deliver 100Mbps & beyond
VDSL2
~40 Mbps
CO
ADSL2+
~10-20 Mbps
VDSL2 Bonding
~80 Mbps VDSL2
~40 Mbps
VDSL2 Vectoring
~100 Mbps
VDSL2 vectoring at DP
~100-200 Mbps
FTTN
PON/P2P
500+ Mbps
CO
FTTB
VDSL2 Vectoring
~100 Mbps
FTTDP
FTTDoor
OLT
Switch/
Router
ISAM FD/FX
5520
AMS
Just Plug It In
• Use Existing off-the-
shelf routers and
switches
• Plugs into WAN or uplink
SFP cage
• VLAN Tagging/ Retagging
/Priority Setting, MPLS etc. to
ensure service SLAs
• GPON for Cell Back
Haul
• GPON to feed DSLAMs
ACCELERATE CONNECTIVITY WITH GPON SFP ONT
ENTERPRISE, CELL/WIFI BACK HAUL AND DSLAMS
Base Station
DSLAM
ALCATEL-LUCENT GPON SFP ONT
SFP ONT Features
• Fits in standard MSA cage
• GPON G.984.1,2,3
• B+ optics (28db optical budget)
• Ethernet Packet Forwarding @ GE
Wireline speed
• Tagging/Retagging/Priority Bit setting
• Full video support with Multicast,
IGMP v2 & 3 snooping, expedited
leave, IGMP rate limiting
• Operating Case Temp -30 C to
+75 C
• Dimensions (LxWxH) 7.5 cm x1.39
CM x 1.245 cm
SFP ONT Use Cases
Alcatel-Lucent
lightRadio™
9964 LTE
OLT
GPON
SFP
Alcatel-Lucent 7210 SAS-D
3rd party
Alcatel-Lucent SFP-ONT
O-010S-P -40 C +80 C
I-010S-P -5 C +70 C
•ALU recommends to perform pre-validation as the SFP’s power
consumption is higher than typical SFP (2W typ / 2.6W max)
•Yield on I-temp is low. Offer C-temp wherever possible.
Just plug GPON in
into any appliance equipped
with a standard SFP cage
Any subscriber
Address residential, business and
backhaul with one ONT type
Upgrade point-to-point sites
Enjoy the OPEX reduction of PON
without replacing CPE
Redefine the Residential GW
Introduce new gateways without
qualifying new ONTs
Alcatel-Lucent
7356-SA (REM)
Fiber to the Most Economical Point
FTTx = FTTH + FTTC + FTTdp
An Economical Analysis
€768
€ 0
€ 200
€ 400
€ 600
€ 800
€ 1,000
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6
Euros(Million)
Capex - HHP Capex - HHC Opex TCO (PV)
Option 1 TCO: Deploy FTTH from Day 1 at Full Speed
TCO PV (6 years)
4 % 13 % 24 % 35 % 42 % 44 %
1 Million
HHP
Take-rate
€285
€733
€ 0
€ 100
€ 200
€ 300
€ 400
€ 500
€ 600
€ 700
€ 800
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7
Euros(Million) Capex - HHP Capex - HHC Opex TCO (PV)
Option 2 TCO: Deploy VDSL2 First and Upgrade to FTTH in future (> 4 years)
Ramp up subscriber take-rate to 44%
on VDSL2-BR
Upgrade to FTTHTCO PV (4 years)
TCO PV (7 years)
11 % 22 % 33 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 %Take-rate
1 Million
HHP
€(307)
€24
€(5)€(5)€(5)€(5)
€(16)€(36)€(55)
€(197)
€(329)
€238 €238€238
€71
€131
€190
€226 €238 €238
€231
€141
€43
€(66)
€(185)
€(471)
€(520)
€(258)
€(428)
€(310)
-€ 600
-€ 500
-€ 400
-€ 300
-€ 200
-€ 100
€ 0
€ 100
€ 200
€ 300
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Euros(Million) Yearly TCO Yearly Revenues CDCF
Option 1 (FTTH Only): 10 year Business Case including Revenue*
Long Pay Back Year (7-8) – Difficult Business Case
* ARPU (VDSL2) = 40 euros/month; ARPU (FTTH) = 45 euros/month
4 %Take-rate 13 % 24 % 35 % 42 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 %
€(202)
€53
€(2)€(2)€(2)€(38) €(45)
€(53)
€(318) €(306)
€(151)
€238 €238€238€238€232€222€211
€158
€106 €114
€167
€54
€267
€358
€(136)
€6
€(79)
€12
€57
-€ 400
-€ 300
-€ 200
-€ 100
€ 0
€ 100
€ 200
€ 300
€ 400
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
Euros(Million) Yearly TCO Yearly Revenues CDCF
Option 2 (VDSL2 with FTTH Upgrade): 10 Year Business Case incl. Revenue*
* ARPU (VDSL2) = 40 euros/month; ARPU (FTTH) = 45 euros/month
11 %Take-rate 22 % 33 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 %
3 Year Payback + CDCF is 55% higher than Option 1

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Ft tx presentation to telkom 25092013

  • 1. FTTx DEPLOYMENT TRENDS AND TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION
  • 2. 2 100 MBPS COVERS HIGH-END USER DEMAND BY 2020 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 VideoBandwidth(Mbps) 3DTV 2160p HDTV 2160p 3DTV 1080p HDTV 1080p 3DTV 720p HDTV 720p SDTV 15% CAGR Source: Alcatel-Lucent
  • 3. 3 MARKETING BANDWIDTH IS STILL IMPORTANT END-USER INTEREST IN MEGAHERTZ END-USER INTEREST IN MEGAPIXELS Source: Google Trends END-USER INTEREST IN MEGABIT
  • 4. 4 FACTORS INFLUENCING FTTx STRATEGY SELECTION Building owners know there are government broadband targets, and have started to charge money to enter buildings Operator in APAC 30% of FTTH subscribers change their mind when the engineer asks where he can drill holes in the wall for the fiber Operator in Europe To connect 7,000 house- holds, we needed 30,000 phone calls in 40 languages just to schedule home visits Operator in Western Europe Engineers are not allowed to enter the home if the husband is not at home, and need to reschedule the appointment Operator in the Middle East
  • 5. 5 SOLVING THE BITRATE EQUATION 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 ADSL/CO FTTN 250 subs FTTCurb 48 subs FTTB 32 subs FTTPole 16 subs FTTWall 1 sub FTTH Other Factors Home Connection & Installation Home Equipment Civil Works & Cables Cabinets or POPs Splitters Equipment FTTx COST COMPARISON, CAPEX + INSTALLATION INVESTMENT • From FTTN (4x) to FTTH (15x) • The closer to the subscriber, the closer the cost to FTTH 1 TIME TO MARKET • Deploying FTTH is time consuming • Re-using existing copper can speed up deployment 2 BANDWIDTH • FTTH: 1G and more • FTTx: 100M (VDSL2 Vectoring today), G.fast evolution to 100s 3 OTHER FACTORS • (-) Aerial fiber, existing ducts • (+) difficulty to enter the home 4
  • 6. 6 SERVICE PROVIDERS MIX COPPER AND FIBER TO REDUCE COST AND ACHIEVE FAST TTM FTTB FTTN CO FTTH Strategy Exploring   Vectoring plans publicly announced  FTTdp  
  • 7. 7 VECTORING Removing the Copper Speedbump EACH VDSL2 LINE INTERFERES WITH OTHER LINES IN CABLE BUNDLE BUNDLE WITH COPPER PAIRS (TELEPHONE LINES) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 at 400m with normal VDSL240Mbps 100Mbpsat 400m with VDSL2 Vectoring Downstreambitrate[Mbps] Distance[m] Optimal VDSL2 performance
  • 8. 8 100Mbps @ 400m DOWNSTREAM 40Mbps @ 400m UPSTREAM SAME PERFORMANCE FOR ALL LINES= VECTORING DELIVERS PREDICTABLE HIGH SPEED FOR ALL LINES SINGLE LINE RATE VECTORING RATE VDSL2 RATE
  • 9. 9 FTTH FTTCurb FTTN 1000s- 10000s 100s 10s From ultra- high capacity FTTH … FTTB … over FTTN/B solutions with vectoring … … to flexible FTTCurb micronodes with vectoring FTTdp The End to end Story
  • 10. 10 NEXT IN DSL: G.FAST HIGH BITRATES •Standard targets: • 150Mbps @ 250m • 200Mbps @ 200m • 500Mbps @ 100m • Up to 1Gbps <100m 3 SHORT DISTANCE • To reduce attenuation at high frequencies 2 BITS/s/Hz 106MHz 212MHz VDSL2 VECTORED FREQUENCY [MHz]17MHz G.FAST VECTORED 0 1 3 2 MORE BANDWIDTH • G.fast: up to 106 or 212 MHz • Limitation on bits/s/Hz to manage design complexity 1
  • 11. 11 TYPICAL APPLICATIONS FOR G.FAST & G.FAST VECTORING FTT… NODE CURB MANHOLE POLE WALL FRONTDOORBUILDING >200 METER > 100 SUBS VDSL2 VECTORING <200 METER 10s OF SUBS VDSL2 VECTORING EVOLUTION TO G.FAST VECTORING 10s OF METERS 1 SUB VDSL2 EVOLUTION TO G.FAST a.k.a. “FTTdp” (Distribution Point)
  • 12. 12 FTT-DP – Fiber to the Drop Point
  • 13. Fiber to The Drop Point : 1 to 1  Allow to offer GPON connection to end users refusing installation of an ONT: 30% of the subscribers  SFU: single Family Unit. No MDUs or multi subscribers interfaces  Indoor device only as first step Service delivery o target performances at 100 meters: > 100Mbps oVDSL2 profile: 17a with evolution to 30a (HW ready) o No Coax cable o Reverse Power feeding o Customer self-install oFall back scenario: ADSL2+ with By-pass mechanism: loss of power, churn, installation 1 DPU per apartment Active equipment ~FTTH single-port DPU CPE CPE CPE single-port DPU Optical connection box
  • 14. G-010V-P BRING VDSL2 NEAR/IN THE HOME GPON uplink G-010V-P VDSL2 Reverse Power • GPON ONT with VDSL2 port as user interface • Allows to bring GPON to the home, without having to touch in-house CAT3 wiring. • First product: SFU - Single family unit (single VDSL2 port) • Indoor installation only at the start • VDSL2 17a & 30a support • Target service delivery: > 100 Mbps DN / 50 Mbps UP • G.INP (physical retransmission) and SRA • Reverse power feeding • Customer self-install • Fall back using by path relay in case ONTs is out of service
  • 15. 15 • Dimension Targets (indoor, now inclusive cable protection) : - 200 * 98 * 45 mm INCLUSIVE PROTECTOR VDSL2 Indoor ONT G–010V-P • Copper pairs: 2 connectors - Line to_CO and line to_CPE: RJ-45 connectors • 1 optical connector • 2 connectors : - CRAFT : RJ45 : (Serial Link) - Connector for external alarms collection - 1 barrel connector for External power
  • 16. FIBER TO THE DISTRIBUTION POINT (FTTdp) VDSL2 (17a, 30a) NOW, G.FAST IN 2015 • Gradual deeper fiber deployment: FTTdp / FTTB • To boost bit rates beyond what is possible from cab • To optimise Cost of fiber deployments • Multi-port DPU (distribution point unit) • Typically requires vectoring (or anti-crosstalk) • Typically reverse powered (shared) • Open for outdoor deployment. Vectoring not in scope for indoor • Facilitate FTTH • Stay out of house / apartment with fiber  reduce cost of FTTH • Single-port DPU • No vectoring needed • Reverse powered (independent per user) single-port DPU CPE 1 DPU per apartment CPE CPE CPE CPE CPE multi-port DPU FTTB ~FTTH FTTcurb manhole, mini-cabinet, pole-mount, …. single-port DPU multi-port DPU
  • 17. Remote Power Feeding Local Power Feeding Reverse Power Feeding CO DPU CPEs CO DPU CO DPU CPEs CPEs CPEs CPEs CPEs Reverse Power Feeding of DPU
  • 18. Deployment Example outdoor : Save on DROP Fiber cost and Home rewiring ONTpc ONTpc Splitter Fiber VDSL Modem + PoE Injector ONT FTTdp FTTH Splitter IP Network Existing copper cable Client Optical fiber GPON ONT V2CO Bridge Distance <200mOLT
  • 19. StrategyFAST BROADBAND Solving the bandwidth - cost - time equation: Combining fiber, VDSL2, Vectoring, and Bonding to deliver 100Mbps & beyond VDSL2 ~40 Mbps CO ADSL2+ ~10-20 Mbps VDSL2 Bonding ~80 Mbps VDSL2 ~40 Mbps VDSL2 Vectoring ~100 Mbps VDSL2 vectoring at DP ~100-200 Mbps FTTN PON/P2P 500+ Mbps CO FTTB VDSL2 Vectoring ~100 Mbps FTTDP FTTDoor
  • 20. OLT Switch/ Router ISAM FD/FX 5520 AMS Just Plug It In • Use Existing off-the- shelf routers and switches • Plugs into WAN or uplink SFP cage • VLAN Tagging/ Retagging /Priority Setting, MPLS etc. to ensure service SLAs • GPON for Cell Back Haul • GPON to feed DSLAMs ACCELERATE CONNECTIVITY WITH GPON SFP ONT ENTERPRISE, CELL/WIFI BACK HAUL AND DSLAMS Base Station DSLAM
  • 21. ALCATEL-LUCENT GPON SFP ONT SFP ONT Features • Fits in standard MSA cage • GPON G.984.1,2,3 • B+ optics (28db optical budget) • Ethernet Packet Forwarding @ GE Wireline speed • Tagging/Retagging/Priority Bit setting • Full video support with Multicast, IGMP v2 & 3 snooping, expedited leave, IGMP rate limiting • Operating Case Temp -30 C to +75 C • Dimensions (LxWxH) 7.5 cm x1.39 CM x 1.245 cm SFP ONT Use Cases Alcatel-Lucent lightRadio™ 9964 LTE OLT GPON SFP Alcatel-Lucent 7210 SAS-D 3rd party Alcatel-Lucent SFP-ONT O-010S-P -40 C +80 C I-010S-P -5 C +70 C •ALU recommends to perform pre-validation as the SFP’s power consumption is higher than typical SFP (2W typ / 2.6W max) •Yield on I-temp is low. Offer C-temp wherever possible. Just plug GPON in into any appliance equipped with a standard SFP cage Any subscriber Address residential, business and backhaul with one ONT type Upgrade point-to-point sites Enjoy the OPEX reduction of PON without replacing CPE Redefine the Residential GW Introduce new gateways without qualifying new ONTs Alcatel-Lucent 7356-SA (REM)
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. Fiber to the Most Economical Point FTTx = FTTH + FTTC + FTTdp An Economical Analysis
  • 25. €768 € 0 € 200 € 400 € 600 € 800 € 1,000 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Euros(Million) Capex - HHP Capex - HHC Opex TCO (PV) Option 1 TCO: Deploy FTTH from Day 1 at Full Speed TCO PV (6 years) 4 % 13 % 24 % 35 % 42 % 44 % 1 Million HHP Take-rate
  • 26. €285 €733 € 0 € 100 € 200 € 300 € 400 € 500 € 600 € 700 € 800 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Euros(Million) Capex - HHP Capex - HHC Opex TCO (PV) Option 2 TCO: Deploy VDSL2 First and Upgrade to FTTH in future (> 4 years) Ramp up subscriber take-rate to 44% on VDSL2-BR Upgrade to FTTHTCO PV (4 years) TCO PV (7 years) 11 % 22 % 33 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 %Take-rate 1 Million HHP
  • 27. €(307) €24 €(5)€(5)€(5)€(5) €(16)€(36)€(55) €(197) €(329) €238 €238€238 €71 €131 €190 €226 €238 €238 €231 €141 €43 €(66) €(185) €(471) €(520) €(258) €(428) €(310) -€ 600 -€ 500 -€ 400 -€ 300 -€ 200 -€ 100 € 0 € 100 € 200 € 300 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Euros(Million) Yearly TCO Yearly Revenues CDCF Option 1 (FTTH Only): 10 year Business Case including Revenue* Long Pay Back Year (7-8) – Difficult Business Case * ARPU (VDSL2) = 40 euros/month; ARPU (FTTH) = 45 euros/month 4 %Take-rate 13 % 24 % 35 % 42 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 %
  • 28. €(202) €53 €(2)€(2)€(2)€(38) €(45) €(53) €(318) €(306) €(151) €238 €238€238€238€232€222€211 €158 €106 €114 €167 €54 €267 €358 €(136) €6 €(79) €12 €57 -€ 400 -€ 300 -€ 200 -€ 100 € 0 € 100 € 200 € 300 € 400 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Euros(Million) Yearly TCO Yearly Revenues CDCF Option 2 (VDSL2 with FTTH Upgrade): 10 Year Business Case incl. Revenue* * ARPU (VDSL2) = 40 euros/month; ARPU (FTTH) = 45 euros/month 11 %Take-rate 22 % 33 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 44 % 3 Year Payback + CDCF is 55% higher than Option 1