The Logic of Ibn Khaldun: in the light of his civilization and personality

1. An introduction to the
Introduction to the World
History Victor Vahidi Motti
Director
World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF)
ICESCO’s Strategic Foresight Center
23 December 2020, Rabat, Morocco

2. The Logic of Ibn Khaldun:
in the light of his civilization and personality
First published in Arabic in 1962, Baghdad, Iraq: Free Download Here
Ali Al-Wardi

3. IBN KHALDUN IN BRIEF IN CONTEXT (1)
 Lived in 14th century CE in North Africa: Al-Maghrib (the far West flank of
the Islamic Empire)
 Lived in highly turbulent times after the fall of the Abbasid Caliphate and
before the rise of Ottoman empire
 Suffered loss of parents due to the 14th century pandemic, the Black
Death, that hit the urban centers severely
 Coming from an influential family involved in both politics and scholarship
 Switched several times back and forth between practicing politics and
studying the art and science of governance
 Provided Some “Universal” (not only Arab or Muslim) Revolutionary and
Creative/Critical Thinking
 Made contribution to the emergence of the “empirical” social science

4. IBN KHALDUN IN BRIEF IN CONTEXT (2)
 His most well known work: Introduction (Al-Muqaddimah) to the analysis
of World History and large scale patterns of change. Wrote the
masterpiece in almost five months when isolated, it was supposed to be a
preface but under sudden inspirational creativity grew into a separate
volume of theory building
 The key binary opposite: desert versus city dwellers and the idea of social
solidarity (Asabiyyah), a basis for Social Cycle Theory of change, which
explains the rise and fall of states and civilizations, using the laws
governing the system dynamics of the governance and economy.
 A failed bad character politician and influential brilliant political science
and history scholar
 Experienced several switching political alliances during a highly volatile
period in the Muslim world and in particular dynasties of governors in
North Africa

5. AL WARDI CLAIM AND ANALYSIS
Few scholars have studied the role of logic in Ibn Khaldun’s methodology
Ibn Khaldun was a revolutionary against the dominant logic of his time
The logic rules and in particular Form versus Matter binary opposite were
established by Aristotle.
For example, Constitution is the Form or shape of governance of the state (Polis),
and people, citizens or the bodies, who govern and being governed are the
Matter
But the scholars in the Muslim world who learned and applied Aristotle’s logic
were drifted away and trapped into an over emphasis on the logical forms and
neglected the importance of matter.
But there should be an evolving reciprocal relationship between Form and
Matter.

6. ROLE OF GREEK PHILOSOPHY IN IDEALIZED VISIONING
(1)
 Greek philosophy’s key contribution: Use of Rational Discourse versus Use of
Superstitions and Mythology-Theology to make sense of the world and construct valid
conception of reality: This preceded the emergence of the natural scientific method
 But later excessive use of logical forms, deductive reasoning and highly general
abstract reflections by Muslim scholars occurred at the expense of losing contact with
concrete and tangible particulars of reality
 Downplaying the importance of Matter (as opposed to Form), experiment, senses,
data, facts, content and simply accurate reporting of reality

7. ROLE OF GREEK PHILOSOPHY IN IDEALIZED VISIONING
(2)
 Ibn Khaldun proposed to his contemporaries that this is wrong. We need to pay
attention to the facts, collect them, do analysis and subject data to critical thinking
and not imposing our favorite ideological narratives on the world history
 Some Arab and Muslim scholars even today consider Ibn Khaldun as an “overrated”
scholar and wonder why Ibn Khaldun is so popular and influential among the
Westerners because for many Muslim scholars and leaders “preaching about the form
of the idealized Islamic society” is of fundamental importance.
 Strategic monitoring and collecting data on the past and present events and
identifying trends in their societies and reporting the facts, like what Independent
Journalists do, and finding laws that explain their evolving change, like what Foresight
experts do, are not considered an Authorized Profession and Intellectually Respected
activity, respectively.

8. LAW OF THOUGHT
 The law of identity: Whatever is, is
 The law of non-contradiction: Nothing can both be and not be
 The law of excluded middle: Everything must either be or not be
 Al-Wardi claims that Ibn Khaldun challenged all the above in his
theory, his personal character, and practice of politics.

9. LAW OF THOUGHT, CHALLENGED?
 Casting doubt on: All good things and the ultimate/eternal truth is not
changing and hence is constant, fixed and certain.
 But the world is probable, uncertain, evolving, etc.
 Society is changing, it is becoming, the matter is evolving, the truth
and the form should be changing too.
 Evil and good character virtues occur simultaneously. For instance,
no judgment is passed on the moral code/behavior of desert/nomad
people as opposed to the urban/ sedentary people
 There exists a continuum or a spectrum with varying degrees from
the extreme desert/rural/nomad culture/lifestyle/mindset to the
extreme urban/civilized culture/lifestyle mindset

10. NEW LOGIC TO ENDORSE CHANGE VIA
OPPOSITES AND CONTRADICTIONS (1)
The old logic rejects the possibility of contradictions such as the simultaneous existence of
evil and good traits in things, entities, and persons:
For Ibn Khaldun:
The city dwellers, e.g. Persians/Egyptians, with sedentary lifestyle are sophisticated,
coward, deceitful, double-faced, physically weak and often sick, progressive in and
supportive of art, science, crafts, industry, cultured and civilized in favor of knowledge
accumulation, preservation, and distribution
The desert dwellers, i.e. Bedouin Arabs, with nomad lifestyle are simple-minded, savage,
pillager, brave, honest and frank, strong and often healthy, in favor of destructive
behavior, with great hospitality, delivering on promises, strong face-saving behavior
Urban people can become de-Urbanized, i.e. adopting desert lifestyle through decline of
cities, and Rural people can become Urbanized, i.e. adopting urban culture and lifestyle.

11. NEW LOGIC TO ENDORSE CHANGE VIA
OPPOSITES AND CONTRADICTIONS (2)
The binary opposite urban versus nomad cultures and the associated contradictions
are fundamental to Ibn Khaldun's idea of social solidarity (Asabiyyah), social cycle
theory of change, rise and fall of states and civilizations, Social Oscillation and the
laws governing the System Dynamics of the governance and economy.
Social Natural Oscillation: 1) Establishment (by the power of sword), 2) Rise to Top
(enforced by the economic growth dynamics, right tax system and the power of pen,
state propaganda), 3) Peak (characterized by luxury, moral laxity, extravagance &
corruption), 4) Decline to Bottom (due to wrong tax system and resisted/delayed by
the power of pen, state propaganda), 5) Collapse and New Establishment (by the
power of sword and the new Asabiyyah), and so on.
The law of social cycle, which implies always repeating rise and fall of states, is both
Natural and Inevitable, and quite deterministic, you cannot stop the fall of an empire,
you have to sense it and then Switch Your Alliance with the upcoming winning
empire or the new political group which benefits from much stronger Asabiyyah

12. IBN KHALDUN’S SOCIAL NATURAL OSCILLATION:
A NEW FORM AFTER STUDYING THE MATTER
New Asabiyyah
Luxury & Laxity
Decline Decline
Rise
Luxury & Laxity
New Asabiyyah
COMPARE WITH SOCIAL CYCLES OF PITIRIM SOROKIN & PRABHAT RANJAN SARKAR

13. URBAN VS. RURAL & IRANIAN REVOLUTION 1979
DATA SOURCE:
HTTPS://WWW.MACROTRENDS.NET/COUNTRIES/IRN/IRAN/RURAL-POPULATION
HTTPS://WWW.MACROTRENDS.NET/COUNTRIES/IRN/IRAN/URBAN-POPULATION
1979 Revolution
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Asabiyyah of Rural
Iran against
Pahlavi dynasty
% of

14. WHAT ARE MODERN EXAMPLES OF ASABIYYAH?
Marxism/Communism (e.g. Bolsheviks), German Nationalism (Nazi Third Reich),
Zionism, Pan-Arabism, Pan-Turkism, Neo-Ottomanism, Pan-Iranism, Pan-Islamism,
Shi'ism, Jihadism (ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Taliban), Pro-Europeanism, Pan-Africanism,
Trumpism, Chinese State Capitalism (Pandamic), Environmentalism, Gender Equality,
How about Transhumanism?
Note: Arabic is a highly rich language, you cannot simply translate Asabiyyah into
social solidarity (a modern term by Émile Durkheim),
It is from the root A-S-B and related to a cloud of interrelated meanings and has
Family Resemblance (Familienähnlichkeit) with:
Neuron, Nerves, Nervous & Excited, Bigotry, Prejudice, Uncompromising
Support/Advocacy, Mentally Locked, Collective/Shared Consciousness/Mind, Tribal
Pride, Violent Behavior, Intense Unconditional Defense, Strong Desire, Extreme
Group/Tribe/Relatives Sense of Connection/Membership, (Organized Crime) Gangs,
Gathering/Grouping of humans/animals, etc. (READ MORE)

15. PHILOSOPHY OF ASABIYYAH?
(My Interpretation of) The Definition:
Ibn Khaldun’s Asabiyyah is a strong, successfully sustained, initially
increasing but eventually decreasing coupling or reciprocity between
Idealism and Materialism in the sociopolitical systems

16. HIS NEW IDEA AND THEORY TO JUSTIFY
HIS OWN LIFE AND PRACTICE
Al-Wardi also explains that how Ibn Khaldun was unpopular among his
fellow citizens in Al Maghrib and had to leave for Egypt to become a judge,
a place no one knew his bad character well.
Ibn Khaldun was a brilliant and insightful theorist, analyst, and big thinker
and at the same time was a frank opportunist and hypocrite, demonstrating
some unscrupulous behavior from time to time, particularly while he was
involved in the politics and followed the controversial idea of “the ends
justifies the means” (in a sense becoming the spiritual father of Machiavelli).
He built his impressive sociopolitical theory to justify his own life and
practice of politics.
This can be said also about some philosophers, and scholars, such as Martin
Heidegger, the renowned German philosopher, who was an infamous Nazi
collaborator.

17.  Victor Vahidi Mott is Director of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), a
UNESCO consultative partner founded in 1973 in Paris. He is an international writer,
speaker, and foresight adviser who has a research interest in Civilizational Futures
Studies. His 2019 book titled Alternative Planetary Futures was featured in the UNESCO
Futures Literacy Summit 2020. He has been a guest speaker at international
conferences in Europe, North Africa and Asia, speaking on key transitions of Science
and Technology, Climate, Political-Economy, and Planetary Identity at world and
regional levels for the 2030, 2050 and 2060 horizons. Based in the Middle East, he reads
English, Arabic, Persian and Italian and is a beginner in German. He was the recipient
of the WFSF President’s Outstanding Young Futurist Award in 2013.
 Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are those of mine
and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Federation.