Bayarmaa A., Carbon Finance Specialist, Clean Energy LLC, Newcom Group

1. CASEOF SALKHITWIND FARMCDM PROJECT
Capacity 49.6 MW wind
project
Net annual electricity generation 168.5 GWh
Expected annual emission
reduction
178,778 tCO2e
Crediting period 21 years
Total project investment US$ 120 mln
12/11/2012
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[1] “Understanding the link between macroeconomic environment and the EU carbon
price”, The Monthly Bulletin on European Carbon Market.
[2] "CER price forecasts to 2020: green and shades of grey"
CER sales
price
examples
CDM
annual
return
Total CDM
Return
(gross)
€20 fixed €3.5 mln/y €75 mln
€2 fixed €357, 556 €7.5 mln
~ 90 % floating price of sCER market
price
Figure 1. sCER OTC price assessment (as of Sep 2012). Source:
Point Carbon CER price forecasts Source
€8.20 - €9.70
through to
2020
CDC Climate
Research, Feb
2012 [1]
€3.3 - € 4.4
through to 2020
Point Carbon, June
2012 [2]
Grey CERs: €2.7
on average,
€3.0/t in 2015 to
€1.4/t in 2020
[2]
Oct/Nov 2012 Price: € 0.89 - € 1.21
(Bluenext spot price).

2. CERPRICEFORECAST
tagline
12/11/2012
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