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TAIWAN’S ECONOMIC SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
                   June 2012



      Council for Economic Planning and Development
                      Executive Yuan
CONTENTS

I.     CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
           Economic Growth
           Foreign Trade
           Domestic Consumption
           Domestic Investment
           Industrial Production
           Employment
           Prices
           Money Supply and Interest Rates
           Stock Price
           Business Indicators
II.    PROSPECTS FOR 2012
III.   CONCLUSION
STATISTICAL ANNEX TABLES



                                               2
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
   Economic Growth
   In Q1 2012, Taiwan's exports contracted, with real exports of goods and services falling
    by 3.29%. Combined with a sharp drop in imports, net exports contributed 1.59
    percentage points to the change in real GDP. Since domestic demand shrank by 1.42%,
    Taiwan’s real GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 0.39%, and at a seasonally adjusted
    annualized rate (saar) of 2.82%
   During the remainder of this year, the global economy is expected to maintain a moderate
    level of growth, though worries about the eurozone debt crisis and a hard landing in
    mainland China have raised the level of uncertainty. If the global economy does continue
    to grow as expected, Taiwan’s exports should still grow, albeit rather weakly. But muted
    export growth and weak domestic demand expansion are projected to dampen Taiwan’s
    real GDP growth to 3.03% in 2012.                                       YoY (%)   SAAR (%)
% 30
                                                                                                    forecast
  20                                                 Real GDP Growth
       12.90      12.96
                             11.24                                                                        10.38
                                                   10.39                                                          9.11
  10                                   6.50                                                      5.40
                             3.67                           4.52       3.45                              4.00
        9.01       9.69                                                           1.85    2.82
                                                  6.62                                           0.77             6.65
   0
                                                            2.11
                                        2.34                                              0.39
                                                                      -1.87       -2.10

 -10
          Q1        Q2        Q3         Q4        Q1         Q2        Q3        Q4      Q1      Q2       Q3     Q4

                    2010 (10.72%)                             2011 (4.03%)                        2012 (3.03%)



   Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics (DGBAS), May 2012.                                  3
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
                    Contributions to GDP Growth (in percentage points)

       ppt.                                                                                                     yoy, %
                                                                                               forecast
          15                                                                                                     15

          10                                                                                                     10

           5                                                                                                     5

           0                                                                                                     0

          -5                                                                                                     -5

         -10                    Net foreign demand                                                               -10
                                Inventories
                                Domestic demand (excl. inventories)
         -15                    GDP growth, yoy % (right scale)                                                  -15

         -20                                                                                                     -20
                 Q1-      Q2-      Q3-     Q4-      Q1-      Q2-      Q3-     Q4-      Q1-   Q2-   Q3-    Q4-
                 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012


Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics (DGBAS), May 2012.
                                                                                                                         4
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
Foreign Trade
   In April 2012, exports declined by 6.4% year on year, mainly due to decreased export
    of chemicals, electronic products, and plastics & rubber and articles thereof. Imports
    increased 2.1%, with most of the increase in mineral products.
   The month’s foreign trade yielded a balance of US$0.69 billion in Taiwan’s favor.


  60
         US$          Gross value of exports (left scale)
                                                                                                                  %
                                                                                                                          120
         billion      Gross value of imports (left scale)
  50                  Export growth (right scale)
                      Import growth (right scale)                                                                         80

  40
                                                                                                                          40
  30
                                                                                                                  2.1
                                                                                                                          0
  20                                                                                                                  -6.4
                                                                                                                          -40
  10                                                                                                     25.54
                                                                                                         24.86
   0                                                                                                                      -80
        1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5
                           11                    11                    11                    11

                   2008                     2009                    2010                      2011              2012

  Note: Trade data are adjusted according to the United Nations IMTS Compilers Manual (2004). Total exports include “exports”
  and “re-exports,” and total imports include “imports” and “re-imports.”
  Source: Ministry of Finance, May 2012                                                                                         5
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
 Major trade partners
 China (including Hong Kong) and ASEAN have become increasingly important trade partners to
  Taiwan since 2000.
 Japan has remained Taiwan's largest supplier of imports, despite a narrowing share.
                Changes in Two-Way Trade with Major Trading Partners (yoy %)
                                          Exports                                                  Imports
                                             China (incl.                    Middle China (incl.
                    USA Japan Europe                      ASEAN 6* USA Japan                     ASEAN 6*
                                             Hong Kong)                       East Hong Kong)
  2002                -2.7   -5.0     -5.9            29.4           7.4     -0.8     5.5       9.8             24.2          3.7
  2002 Share        20.2     9.1     13.9            32.1         11.9     16.1 24.2           6.4              8.7         14.7
  2003                -3.0    0.5     10.4            23.6         10.5      -6.9    19.6     43.7              30.9          5.2
  2004                 8.3 11.1       14.7            28.8         33.0     28.2     33.6     34.6              47.7        16.2
  2005                 1.3    9.4     -0.8            12.2         13.8      -2.8     5.3     36.5              16.2          3.8
  2006               11.2     7.9     10.5            14.8         13.8       7.1     0.5     30.1              20.1        10.4
  2007                -0.9 -2.2        9.7            12.6         16.7     17.0     -0.8     11.7              11.9          1.7
  2008                -4.0 10.2        4.6            -0.8          7.3     -0.7      1.2     39.9              10.2          8.0
  2009              -23.5 -17.4      -24.6           -15.9        -21.5     -31.0 -22.1      -42.2             -22.3        -22.8
  2010               33.6 24.3        30.1            37.1         37.2     39.8     43.3     39.4              47.1        45.6
  2011               15.6 1.3          6.3             8.1         22.7      1.5      0.6     14.7              20.5        13.5
  2011 Share        12.2     6.8     10.2            40.7         14.8     10.2 21.7         12.8              15.3         11.8
  2012 Jan-Apr        -9.7    -7.8     -4.2            -10.2           6.8     -12.7 -13.0    -3.80              -5.1         1.0
*ASEAN 6 refers to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.    Source: Ministry of Finance.           6
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
  Domestic consumption
       With the improving employment situation, private consumption grew by 1.72% from a
        year earlier in Q1 2012, while government consumption increased by 2.72%. But
        domestic consumption momentum was offset by a lull in stock market activity and a
        sell-off of financial assets.
       Sales of trade and food services posted an annual decrease of 2.37% for April 2012,
        contributed largely by a 4.37% decrease in wholesale trade. Retail trade and food &
        beverage services increased 2.69% and 3.51%, respectively.
yoy, %
30                                                                                                                   30

20                                                                                                                   20

10                                                                                                                   10
                                                                                                                    3.51
                                                                                                                    2.69
 0                                                                                                                   0
                                                                                                                 -4.37
-10                                                                  Wholesale Trade                                 -10

-20                                                                  Retail Trade                                    -20
                                                                     Food Services
-30                                                                                                                  -30
      1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4

      2008                         2009                 2010                    2011                      2012
      Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs, May 2012.
                                                                                                                           7
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
  Domestic Investment
         In Q1 2012, private fixed investment and gross fixed capital formation fell 9.40% and
          10.54%, respectively. Gross fixed capital formation for Q4 2011 was revised to minus
          12.76% from minus 12.41%.
         This big drop in private fixed investment was caused by investment plans being put on
          hold due to the weak economy, with imports of capital equipment continuing to decline.

yoy, %
   45                                                                                                                               45


                                                                                                            forecast
   25                                                                                                                               25



   5                                                                                                                                5



  -15                                                                                                                               -15



  -35                Private fixed investment                                Public enterprise fixed investment                     -35


                     Government fixed investment                             Gross fixed capital formation
  -55                                                                                                                               -55
           Q1-2010    Q2-2010   Q3-2010   Q4-2010   Q1-2011   Q2-2011   Q3-2011   Q4-2011   Q1-2012   Q2-2012   Q3-2012   Q4-2012


        Source: DGBAS, May 2012.                                                                                                          8
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
Industrial Production
The industrial production index showed a year-on-year decrease of 2.33% in April 2012.
 Manufacturing output decreased 2.58%, and water supply 0.43%, but building
 construction grew 8.52%, mining & quarrying 1.50%, and electricity & gas supply 0.97%.
The industrial production index showed a fall in growth for the second consecutive
 month, mainly due to decreasing production of computers, electronic parts, optical
 products, and machinery & equipment, impacted by the continuing political instability in
 the eurozone and the increase of downside risks in the global economy.
                 Growth of Industrial Production Index                         yoy %
  80                                                                                               80
               Machinery & equipment

               Computer, electronic & optical products
  60                                                                                               60
               Electronic parts & components

               Basic metals
  40                                                                                               40
               Chemical materials

               Industry
  20                                                                                               20


   0                                                                                               0


 -20                                                                                               -20


 -40                                                                                               -40
        1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4
       2009                                    2010          2011                       2012
Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs, May 2012.
                                                                                                         9
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
                            Unemployment Rate and Labor Force Participation Rate
                                   In April 2012, the unemployment rate stood at 4.10%, down 0.07 of a percentage point
                                    from the previous month, and 0.19 of a percentage point lower than a year earlier. The
                                    seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.19%.
                                   The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.02 of a percentage point from the
                                    previous month to 58.15%, up 0.24 of a percentage point from a year earlier.

                                     59.0                                                                                                         12
                                                              Labor force participation rate (left scale)                                  58.15 11
                                     58.5
Labor force participation rate %




                                                              Unemployment rate (right scale)
                                     58.0                                                                                                         10
                                     57.5                                                                                                         9




                                                                                                                                                       Unemployment rate %
                                     57.0                                                                                                         8
                                     56.5                                                                                                         7
                                     56.0                                                                                                         6
                                     55.5                                                                                                         5
                                     55.0                                                                                                         4
                                                                                                                                           4.10
                                     54.5                                                                                                         3
                                     54.0                                                                                                         2
                                            2000   2001   2002    2003      2004     2005      2006     2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012
                                   Source: DGBAS, May 2012.
                                                                                                                                                                             10
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
Prices
      In May 2012,Taiwan’s CPI increased by 1.74% from the same month last year. The
       most significant changes in CPI components were increases in the prices of food,
       tobacco and clothing. These price rises were partially offset by declining prices of
       transportation and communication. Core prices (excluding fresh food and energy
       prices) increased 0.89%.
      The WPI in May fell by 0.64% year on year, due mainly to the decreasing prices of
       basic metals, chemical material and fabricated metal products. These price declines
       were partially offset by rising prices of petroleum and coal products, crude
       petroleum and natural gas.
                                                                                    yoy %
15                                                                                           15
                CPI
10                                                                                           10
                WPI
                                                                                      1.74
 5                                                                                           5

 0                                                                                           0
                                                                                     -0.64
 -5                                                                                          -5

-10                                                                                          -10

-15                                                                                          -15

-20                                                                                          -20
      2001   2002     2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012
Source: DGBAS, Jun. 2012.
                                                                                                   11
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
Money Supply
   In April 2012, the annual growth rate of M1B rose to 3.77%, mainly because
     the daily averages of enterprises’ passbook deposits grew substantially. The
     annual growth rate of M2 declined to 4.72%, mainly due to a net foreign
     capital outflow.
   In April 2012, the monthly growth rates of M1B and M2, measured on a daily
    average basis, were -0.02% and 0.05% respectively.




 Note: The definition of M2 was changed in January 2012 to exclude structured products issued by banks.
       This historical data revision was retrospective to January 2001.
 Source: Central Bank of China (Taiwan).
                                                                                                          12
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
    Short-term Interest Rates
       In an environment of ample excess savings, foreign capital inflows and
        relatively stable domestic inflation, the benchmark interest rates remain at low
        levels. In April 2012, the commercial paper rate stood at 0.79%, unchanged
        from the previous month, and the interbank rate rose to 0.476%.
       To help Taiwan’s economy maintain stable growth amid global economic
        uncertainties, and with the need to closely monitor price movements in 2012,
%       the CBC decided to keep interest rates unchanged in March 2012.




Source: Central Bank of China (Taiwan).
                                                                                           13
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
Stock Price
Volatility in Taiwan’s stock market has continued for a while, due to the
 government’s plan to impose a stock capital gains tax as well as increases in
 gasoline and electricity prices. Under the impact of these factors, Taiwan’s stock
 exchange index fluctuated between 7,600 and 8,020 in the first four months of this
 year.
In April 2012, due to lingering uncertainties over the stock capital gains tax, the
 average closing level of Taiwan’s stock exchange index decreased by 4.98% to
 7,621 from March.




   Source: Taiwan Stock Exchange.
                                                                                       14
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
Taiwan Business Indicators
  In April 2012, although the Taiwan Business Indicators still pointed to many
   downside risks for the economy, the pace of decline in some components
   moderated. The annualized six-month rate of change of the leading index was
   6.6%, up by 0.7 percentage points from March 2012, but the trend-adjusted
   coincident index decreased by 0.1% to 95.9.




     Note: The shaded areas represent recessions.
     Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD).
                                                                                  15
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION
Monitoring Indicators
  Reflecting the downturn of Taiwan’s economy, the monitoring indicators posted a
   total score of 14 in April 2012, and the overall monitoring indicator flashed the
   "blue" signal for the sixth consecutive month.




Source: CEPD.
                                                                                       16
I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION

          Monitoring Indicators and Economic Growth




Note: The shaded areas represent recessions.
Source: CEPD.
                                                      17
II. PROSPECTS FOR 2012
Taiwan's economic growth to gradually rally
- In the first half of 2011, Taiwan’s real GDP grew 5.54% yoy, mainly on the
  back of substantial growth in exports. Since the second half of 2011,
  Taiwan’s export performance has been affected by the slowdown in western
  economies and the weakening of external demand. In the whole of
  2011,Taiwan’s real GDP posted a moderate growth of 4.03% .

- According to the preliminary estimate released by the DGBAS, Taiwan
  posted a year-on-year real GDP growth rate of 0.39% in the first quarter of
  2012. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (saar) of real GDP growth is
  2.82%.

- Mainly due to the still highly uncertain outlook for the global economy, the
  2012 GDP growth forecast has been revised to 3.03% in the DGBAS’s latest
  estimation, down 0.82 of a percentage point from February’s forecast of
  3.85%. However, Taiwan’s real GDP growth is expected to improve quarter
  by quarter this year (from 0.39% in Q1 to 6.65% in Q4).

- Per capita GNP is projected to rise to US$21,189 in 2012.
                                                                                 18
II. PROSPECTS FOR 2012
Export growth expected to be limited
- The weaker than last year’s growth of world trade, together with the gradual
  localization of supply chains in mainland China and the greater competitive stress
  on high-tech companies from large foreign enterprises, may limit Taiwan’s export
  growth this year. However, with the launch of innovative ICT products, the US
  government’s incentive measures to encourage domestic investment, and the
  replacement of machinery and equipment damaged by flooding in Thailand,
  which will induce demand for exports from Taiwan, goods and services exports
  are projected to increase by 3.13% in 2012.
- Over the whole of 2012, goods and services imports are projected to grow by
  0.18% based on rising demand induced by export and investment.




                                                                                   19
II. PROSPECTS FOR 2012
Private consumption set for moderate growth
-Limited wage growth and rising prices have hurt consumers’ purchasing power,
  while the reduced wealth effect due to stock market volatility has also weighed
  on consumer confidence. However, with the improving employment situation and
  the easing of unpaid leave in some enterprises, private consumption is projected
  to rise by 2.03% in 2012.




                                                                                     20
II. PROSPECTS FOR 2012
Domestic investment likely to expand slightly
- Although private fixed investment decreased by 9.4% in the first quarter in 2012,
  and investment in the DRAM and opto-electronic industries is still running slow,
  there are some favorable factors for domestic investment, such as plans by
  semiconductor manufacturers with technical advantages to increase investment
  in advanced technologies, plans by Japanese firms to set up plants in Taiwan to
  disperse their operating risk after being hit by natural disasters at home and in
  Thailand, the growth of foreign visitors inducing tourism industry investment, and
  the government’s “Invest in Taiwan” initiative yielding increasing effects. Over the
  whole of 2012, private fixed investment is projected to slightly increase by 0.52%.
- Government fixed investment in 2012 is expected to reach NT$427.2 billion, but still
  show a decline of 11.38% year on year.




                                                                                         21
II. PROSPECTS FOR 2012
Inflation rising moderately
- Though oil and raw material prices have fallen back recently due to the resurgence
    of the European debt crisis and the slowdown of economic growth in mainland
    China, the supply risks for crude oil in the Middle East are still high. The WPI is
    forecast to rise 1.49% in 2012.
- The government’s decision to raise petrol prices on April 2 and to hike electricity
  prices in one fell swoop on May 15 initially put upward pressure on domestic
  prices. However, CPC has lowered petrol prices nine times since early April, and
  the electricity rate rise has been adjusted to a 3-stage increase1, which, together
  with the effect of active government price stabilization measures and stable
  housing rents, should help ease inflationary pressure. The CPI is forecast to rise
  by 1.84% in the whole of 2012, slightly higher than last year’s 1.42%.




Note: 1.The first stage will begin June 10, with 40 percent of the previously announced price hike
       instituted. Another 40 percent of the planned increase will follow six months later, on December
       10. Whether the remaining 20 percent of the proposed increase is implemented will depend on
       Taiwan Power Company’s cost-saving reform measures and their results.
                                                                                                          22
Forecasts for Taiwan’s Economy
                                                    Real GDP                     Consumer Prices
                                                    (yoy, %)                        (yoy, %)
                                           2011r                      2012f      2011       2012f
DGBAS (2012.5)                              4.03                  3.03 [3.38]    1.42     1.84 [1.94]
TIER (2012.4)                                                     3.48 [3.96]             1.98 [1.46]
CIER (2012.4)                                                     3.55 [4.07]             1.93 [1.48]
Polaris (2012.3)                                                  3.88 [3.93]             1.57 [1.30]
IEAS (2011.12)                                                         3.81                  1.16
Global Insight
(2012.5)                                                            3.5 [3.8]              1.6 [1.4]

EIU (2012.5)                                                        2.8 [2.8]              2.0 [1.5]
IMF (2012.4)                                                        3.6 [5.0]                  -
ADB (2012.4)                                                        3.4 [4.1]                  -
CIER: Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research, Taipei.
TIER: Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, Taipei.
IEAS: Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica
DGBAS: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, ROC (Taiwan).
Polaris: Polaris Research Institute.
[ ] indicates the value of previous forecasts.
                                                                                                        23
III. Conclusion
• Global economic growth is expected to improve in the second half of this year, though
  the downside risks to growth are still substantial. The worsening crisis in Europe due to
  political instability and decelerating economic expansion in mainland China will be a drag
  on Taiwan’s export performance. At the same time, the gasoline and electricity price
  adjustments have increased consumers’ inflation expectation, exerting a negative impact
  on private consumption. In 2012, Taiwan’s real GDP is forecast to rise by 3.03%, with
  the quarterly growth rate improving gradually from 0.39% in Q1 to 6.65% in Q4.
• The government will continue to implement the “Economic Climate Response Program”
  featuring seven sets of strategies for stabilizing finance, holding down prices, increasing
  employment, promoting investment, helping industries, pepping up consumption, and
  boosting exports. At the same time, the government will monitor prices closely and take
  active price stabilization measures to avoid price fluctuation influenced by gasoline and
  electricity price adjustments.
• Furthermore, the government will carry out the next wave of measures for reshaping
  Taiwan’s economic structure, including strengthening technological innovation, bolstering
  cultural & creative enterprise, enhancing R&D and innovation, promoting the
  revitalization of traditional industries, and emphasizing the development of service
  industries, especially those that export services. At the same time, the government will
  promote the expansion of exports to emerging markets and diversification of export
  products. These initiatives should ensure that sound progress is kept up toward
  endowing Taiwan with a vigorous and sustainable new economy.

                                                                                                24
STATISTICAL ANNEX TABLES
I. Real GDP Growth (Change from a year ago)
                                                     Domestic demand                                          Net foreign demand
         Economic                  Consumption             Gross fixed capital formation                             Exports    Less:
          growth                                                                                  Increase
                                                                                                                        of    Imports of
                        Total                                   Private     Public                   in      Total
                                Private    Gov't     Subtotal                           Gov't                        goods & goods &
                                                                sector    enterprises            inventory
                                                                                                                     services services

 2004        6.19       7.36     5.17       0.57      13.96     25.62      -20.60       -9.59       --        --      15.40        17.50
 2005        4.70       1.83     2.90       0.19      2.66       1.53       14.77       2.82        --        --      7.78         3.16
 2006        5.44       0.97     1.49      -0.71      0.07       3.31       -8.61       -11.21      --        --      11.41        4.57
 2007        5.98       1.42     2.08       2.09      0.55       1.36        1.57       -4.46       --        --      9.55         2.98
 2008        0.73       -2.35    -0.93      0.83     -12.36     -15.58      -1.98       1.18        --        --      0.87         -3.71
 2009       -1.81       -3.71    0.76       4.01     -11.25     -18.15       2.14       15.94       --        --      -8.68        -13.10
 2010       10.72       9.78     3.67       0.58      23.99     33.84        8.00       -3.10       --        --      25.56        28.23
2011r        4.03       0.31     2.97       1.86      -3.89     -2.47      -14.32       -5.40       --        --      4.53         -0.68
 Q1          6.62       3.47     4.61       0.62      7.74      10.55      -15.97       0.69        --        --      11.20        7.55
 Q2          4.52       2.18     3.04       0.85      1.41       4.76      -15.01       -5.38       --        --      4.94         1.78
 Q3          3.45       -0.35    3.24       2.43      -9.13     -9.94       -3.47       -7.11       --        --      2.10         -3.72
 Q4r         1.85       -3.70    1.06       3.19     -12.76     -13.19     -18.92       -7.37       --        --      0.86         -7.40
2012f        3.03       0.97     2.03       0.05      -1.34      0.52        0.39       -11.38      --        --      3.13         0.18
 Q1p         0.39       -1.42    1.72       2.72     -10.54     -9.40      -14.96       -16.88      --        --      -3.29        -6.84
 Q2f         0.77       -0.41    1.67       0.75      -1.93      0.55       -0.68       -14.80      --        --      1.00         -0.59
 Q3f         4.00       1.78     2.09      -0.71      1.78       3.49        3.09       -7.68       --        --      5.98         3.33
 Q4f         6.65       3.89     2.64      -1.89      5.14       8.81        6.05       -8.25       --        --      8.42         5.02
P = preliminary; f = forecast; r = revised. Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics (DGBAS), May 2012.
                                                                                                                                            25
STATISTICAL ANNEX TABLES
II. Contributions to GDP Growth (in percentage points)
                                                     Domestic demand                                         Net foreign demand
         Economic                  Consumption             Gross fixed capital formation                            Exports    Less:
          growth                                                                                Increase
                                                                                                                       of    Imports of
                        Total                                  Private     Public                  in      Total
                                Private    Gov't    Subtotal                           Gov't                        goods & goods &
                                                               sector    enterprises           inventory
                                                                                                                    services services

2004         6.19       7.34     3.27       0.08      3.12      4.01        -0.46      -0.43      0.88     -1.15      8.86         10.01
2005         4.70       1.85     1.81       0.03      0.64      0.28        0.25       0.11      -0.63      2.86      4.86         2.00
2006         5.44       0.95     0.92      -0.09      0.02      0.59        -0.16      -0.42      0.10      4.49      7.34         2.85
2007         5.98       1.34     1.23       0.25      0.12      0.24        0.02       -0.14     -0.27      4.65      6.49         1.85
2008         0.73      -2.11    -0.53       0.10      -2.61     -2.62       -0.03      0.03       0.94      2.84      0.61         -2.23
2009        -1.81      -3.24     0.43       0.46      -2.07     -2.56       0.03       0.45      -2.05      1.42     -6.11         -7.53
2010        10.72       8.35     2.11       0.07      3.99      3.97        0.12       -0.10      2.17      2.37     16.73         14.36
2011r        4.03       0.26     1.60       0.21      -0.73     -0.35       -0.21      -0.16     -0.82      3.77      3.36         -0.40
 Q1          6.62       3.01     2.63       0.07      1.35      1.49        -0.16      0.02      -1.03      3.60      8.04         4.44
 Q2          4.52       1.83     1.62       0.09      0.26      0.66        -0.23      -0.17     -0.14      2.69      3.76         1.07
 Q3          3.45      -0.30     1.73       0.27      -1.79     -1.54       -0.04      -0.21     -0.51      3.75      1.55         -2.19
 Q4r         1.85      -3.07     0.55       0.38      -2.42     -1.75       -0.41      -0.26     -1.58      4.92      0.64         -4.28
2012f        3.03       0.79     1.08       0.01      -0.23     0.07        0.00       -0.30     -0.07      2.24      2.33         0.10
 Q1p         0.39      -1.20     0.97       0.27      -1.85     -1.38       -0.12      -0.35     -0.59      1.59     -2.47         -4.06
 Q2f         0.77      -0.34     0.88       0.08      -0.34     0.08        -0.01      -0.41     -0.95      1.11      0.77         -0.34
 Q3f         4.00       1.45     1.11      -0.08      0.31      0.47        0.03       -0.20      0.11      2.54      4.37         1.83
 Q4f         6.65       3.05     1.36      -0.23      0.84      1.00        0.10       -0.27      1.08      3.59      6.23         2.64
P = preliminary; f = forecast; r = revised. Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics (DGBAS), May 2012.
                                                                                                                                           26
Thank you

This summary is prepared by the Department of Economic Research of the Council for Economic
Planning and Development (CEPD). Quarterly updates can be found on the CEPD’s website at
http://www.cepd.gov.tw/encontent. For inquiries send an e-mail to bci@cepd.gov.tw.
APPENDIX




 Economic Climate Response Program



       Council for Economic Planning and
         Development, Executive Yuan
Contents
I. Introduction
II. Seven Strategies, Ten Focuses
III. Concrete Measures




                                    29
I. Introduction
To address the changing situation of the European debt crisis in the external realm and issues arising from
transition and adjustment of the industrial structure in the internal realm, the Executive Yuan at its 3,271st
meeting on November 3, 2011 approved the establishment of a Task Force on Economic Climate Response
Strategy. Meeting under the convenership of Deputy Premier Sean Chen, the task force was charged with
bringing together all related Cabinet agencies for proposal and discussion of response strategies, to be compiled
by the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) into the Economic Climate Response Program.

Since the second half of 2011, Taiwan’s export performance has been affected by the slowdown in Western
economies and the weakening of external demand. Hence, it is necessary to devise export-boosting strategies. At
the same time, although domestic demand played a major role in the economy in 2011, there is still a need for
instituting action to pep it up further, to ensure that domestic demand and exports continue to serve as twin
engines for the propulsion of economic growth.

Taiwan’s economy rests on very sound foundations, and the seven strategies and ten focuses mapped out in this
program will enable the government to actively address and respond to crises arising from changes in the
international environment.




                                                                                                                    30
II. Seven Strategies, Ten Focuses

                 Seven strategies

    1. Stabilizing finance
    2. Holding down prices
    3. Increasing employment
    4. Promoting investment
    5. Helping industries
    6. Pepping up consumption
    7. Boosting exports


                                     31
   Ten Focuses

1. LED road lighting islandwide (MOEA) .
2. Energy-saving home appliance rewards (MOED) .
3. Everyone joining together for urban renewal (MOI) .
4. Rewards to promote green building (MOI).
5. Excellent Tourism in Taiwan (MOTC).
6. All-out implementation of benchmark public works (PCC).
7. Establishing the TJ Park (Taiwan-Japan Park) in the Southern Taiwan Science Park (NSC).
8. The “umbrella for rainy days” initiative to maintain an unbroken supply of business funding
(FSC).
9. The Plan to Train Local Manpower for Emerging Industries (CEPD) and the Recharge and
Restart Training Project (CLA).
10. Action plan to help businesses vie for orders in export markets around the world (MOEA).



                                                                                               32
III. Concrete Measures

 1.Stabilizing finance

1. Stabilize financial markets                        FSC

2. Implement appropriate monetary policy              CBC



 2. Holding down prices

1. Respond to special economic situation by
                                                      MOF
  dynamically reducing taxes to hold down prices
2. Combat cartels to protect consumer rights          FTC
3. Crack down on illegal hoarding and price gouging   MOJ

                                                            33
3. Increasing employment

1. Carry out the Plan to Train Local Manpower for Emerging
                                                             CEPD
Industries
2. Promote the Recharge and Restart Training Project

3. Vocational Training Plan for the Unemployed

4. Project to Develop Multiple Employment
                                                             CLA
5. Employment Subsidy Schemes for Temporary Work
6. Extend the implementation period of subsidies for
temporary work in post-Typhoon Morakot reconstruction
7. Carry out the Farm Trainee Project                        COA



                                                                    34
4. Promoting investment
1. Speed up the expansion of private participation in public works and urban
                                                                               MOI
   renewal.
2. Speed up the implementation of benchmark public works, such as the
   Demonstration Plan for the Comprehensive Management of Coastal Land         PCC
                                                                               MOI
   Subsidence Areas in Chiayi County’s Dongshi Township.
3. Carry out active review for loosening the scope of and restrictions on
                                                                               PCC
   mainland Chinese investment in public works in Taiwan.
4. Expand green buildings awards                                               MOI

5. Promote Taiwanese investment in strengthening Taiwan
                                                                               MOEA
6. Attract Japanese investment in Taiwan

7. Establish the TJ Park (Taiwan-Japan Park)                                   NSC

8. Activate public land                                                        MOF

9. Continue to carry out the “Invest in Taiwan” initiative
                                                                               CEPD
10. Keep implementing the “Homes for Industries, Industries for Homes” plan
                                                                                      35
4. Promoting investment (continued)
11. Speed up the construction of a national convention and exhibition center
   (expansion of the Nangang Exhibition Hall)
                                                                                      MOEA
12. Accelerate construction of the Kaohsiung World Trade Exhibition and
Conference Center
13. Conduct the award of contracts for building affordable housing at A7 Station on
                                                                                      MOI
    the Taoyuan Airport MRT Line




                                                                                             36
5. Helping industries

1. Form and operate the MOEA’s cross-cabinet joint task force for
                                                                                 MOEA
   consultation visits.

2. Extend measures to strengthen the Small and Medium Credit Guarantee           MOEA
   Fund of Taiwan                                                                FSC
3. The “umbrella for rainy days” initiative – helping enterprises obtain their
   needed operating funds, to maintain an unbroken supply of business funding.   FSC


4. Install LED road lighting islandwide.

5. Provide service points for assistance to SMEs.                                MOEA

6. Reduce barriers to merger and acquisition of enterprises.

7. Provide anti-dumping relief.
                                                                                 MOF
8. Encourage private participation in public works investment.

9. Institute taxi maintenance and renewal measures – subsidies for the
   replacement old taxis.                                                        MOTC

                                                                                        37
6. Pepping up consumption
1. Subsidize the public’s purchase (replacement) of energy-saving home
  appliances.

2. Expand business opportunities for the MICE industry.
                                                                         MOEA
3. Integrate tourism itineraries for local industries.

4. Promote consumption by the general public through the “Go” prize
draw.
5. Reduce the rate of commodity tax levied on hybrid LPG vehicles.
                                                                         MOF
6. Exempt electric vehicles from license plate tax.

7. Promote tourism and high-end products in the agricultural sector.     COA

8. Implement on-site small-amount tax rebates for purchases by foreign
                                                                         MOF
  visitors.




                                                                                38
7. Boosting exports
1. Continuous drive to secure export orders
- Develop new export channels month after month, win new buyers week
after week, create new business openings day after day, generate new
opportunities all the time, and form groups to go out in pursuit of export
orders.
2. Progressively expand marketing channels.
3. Promote Taiwanese brands and international image of Taiwan’s                    MOEA
industries.
4. Enhance the New Cheng Ho Plan.
5. Extend the invitation of heavy buyers to Taiwan.
6. Strengthen support for groups to participate in and vie for orders at
international fairs.
7. Actively promote bilateral investment and trade with countries that are
    achieving high growth and have had relatively little business dealing with     CEPD
    Taiwan in the past.
8. Expand service exports – increase the number of tourists coming to            MOTC, MOI
Taiwan.                                                                          MAC, MOEA
9. Preferential tax rates.
                                                                                   MOF
10. Raise overall customs clearance efficiency.

11. Carry out an international marketing plan for agricultural products.           COA
                                                                                             39

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Taiwan's economic situation and outlook , june 2012

  • 1. TAIWAN’S ECONOMIC SITUATION AND OUTLOOK June 2012 Council for Economic Planning and Development Executive Yuan
  • 2. CONTENTS I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION  Economic Growth  Foreign Trade  Domestic Consumption  Domestic Investment  Industrial Production  Employment  Prices  Money Supply and Interest Rates  Stock Price  Business Indicators II. PROSPECTS FOR 2012 III. CONCLUSION STATISTICAL ANNEX TABLES 2
  • 3. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Economic Growth In Q1 2012, Taiwan's exports contracted, with real exports of goods and services falling by 3.29%. Combined with a sharp drop in imports, net exports contributed 1.59 percentage points to the change in real GDP. Since domestic demand shrank by 1.42%, Taiwan’s real GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 0.39%, and at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (saar) of 2.82% During the remainder of this year, the global economy is expected to maintain a moderate level of growth, though worries about the eurozone debt crisis and a hard landing in mainland China have raised the level of uncertainty. If the global economy does continue to grow as expected, Taiwan’s exports should still grow, albeit rather weakly. But muted export growth and weak domestic demand expansion are projected to dampen Taiwan’s real GDP growth to 3.03% in 2012. YoY (%) SAAR (%) % 30 forecast 20 Real GDP Growth 12.90 12.96 11.24 10.38 10.39 9.11 10 6.50 5.40 3.67 4.52 3.45 4.00 9.01 9.69 1.85 2.82 6.62 0.77 6.65 0 2.11 2.34 0.39 -1.87 -2.10 -10 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 (10.72%) 2011 (4.03%) 2012 (3.03%) Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics (DGBAS), May 2012. 3
  • 4. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Contributions to GDP Growth (in percentage points) ppt. yoy, % forecast 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Net foreign demand -10 Inventories Domestic demand (excl. inventories) -15 GDP growth, yoy % (right scale) -15 -20 -20 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics (DGBAS), May 2012. 4
  • 5. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Foreign Trade  In April 2012, exports declined by 6.4% year on year, mainly due to decreased export of chemicals, electronic products, and plastics & rubber and articles thereof. Imports increased 2.1%, with most of the increase in mineral products.  The month’s foreign trade yielded a balance of US$0.69 billion in Taiwan’s favor. 60 US$ Gross value of exports (left scale) % 120 billion Gross value of imports (left scale) 50 Export growth (right scale) Import growth (right scale) 80 40 40 30 2.1 0 20 -6.4 -40 10 25.54 24.86 0 -80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 11 11 11 11 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: Trade data are adjusted according to the United Nations IMTS Compilers Manual (2004). Total exports include “exports” and “re-exports,” and total imports include “imports” and “re-imports.” Source: Ministry of Finance, May 2012 5
  • 6. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Major trade partners China (including Hong Kong) and ASEAN have become increasingly important trade partners to Taiwan since 2000. Japan has remained Taiwan's largest supplier of imports, despite a narrowing share. Changes in Two-Way Trade with Major Trading Partners (yoy %) Exports Imports China (incl. Middle China (incl. USA Japan Europe ASEAN 6* USA Japan ASEAN 6* Hong Kong) East Hong Kong) 2002 -2.7 -5.0 -5.9 29.4 7.4 -0.8 5.5 9.8 24.2 3.7 2002 Share 20.2 9.1 13.9 32.1 11.9 16.1 24.2 6.4 8.7 14.7 2003 -3.0 0.5 10.4 23.6 10.5 -6.9 19.6 43.7 30.9 5.2 2004 8.3 11.1 14.7 28.8 33.0 28.2 33.6 34.6 47.7 16.2 2005 1.3 9.4 -0.8 12.2 13.8 -2.8 5.3 36.5 16.2 3.8 2006 11.2 7.9 10.5 14.8 13.8 7.1 0.5 30.1 20.1 10.4 2007 -0.9 -2.2 9.7 12.6 16.7 17.0 -0.8 11.7 11.9 1.7 2008 -4.0 10.2 4.6 -0.8 7.3 -0.7 1.2 39.9 10.2 8.0 2009 -23.5 -17.4 -24.6 -15.9 -21.5 -31.0 -22.1 -42.2 -22.3 -22.8 2010 33.6 24.3 30.1 37.1 37.2 39.8 43.3 39.4 47.1 45.6 2011 15.6 1.3 6.3 8.1 22.7 1.5 0.6 14.7 20.5 13.5 2011 Share 12.2 6.8 10.2 40.7 14.8 10.2 21.7 12.8 15.3 11.8 2012 Jan-Apr -9.7 -7.8 -4.2 -10.2 6.8 -12.7 -13.0 -3.80 -5.1 1.0 *ASEAN 6 refers to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Source: Ministry of Finance. 6
  • 7. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Domestic consumption  With the improving employment situation, private consumption grew by 1.72% from a year earlier in Q1 2012, while government consumption increased by 2.72%. But domestic consumption momentum was offset by a lull in stock market activity and a sell-off of financial assets.  Sales of trade and food services posted an annual decrease of 2.37% for April 2012, contributed largely by a 4.37% decrease in wholesale trade. Retail trade and food & beverage services increased 2.69% and 3.51%, respectively. yoy, % 30 30 20 20 10 10 3.51 2.69 0 0 -4.37 -10 Wholesale Trade -10 -20 Retail Trade -20 Food Services -30 -30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs, May 2012. 7
  • 8. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Domestic Investment  In Q1 2012, private fixed investment and gross fixed capital formation fell 9.40% and 10.54%, respectively. Gross fixed capital formation for Q4 2011 was revised to minus 12.76% from minus 12.41%.  This big drop in private fixed investment was caused by investment plans being put on hold due to the weak economy, with imports of capital equipment continuing to decline. yoy, % 45 45 forecast 25 25 5 5 -15 -15 -35 Private fixed investment Public enterprise fixed investment -35 Government fixed investment Gross fixed capital formation -55 -55 Q1-2010 Q2-2010 Q3-2010 Q4-2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012 Q3-2012 Q4-2012 Source: DGBAS, May 2012. 8
  • 9. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Industrial Production The industrial production index showed a year-on-year decrease of 2.33% in April 2012. Manufacturing output decreased 2.58%, and water supply 0.43%, but building construction grew 8.52%, mining & quarrying 1.50%, and electricity & gas supply 0.97%. The industrial production index showed a fall in growth for the second consecutive month, mainly due to decreasing production of computers, electronic parts, optical products, and machinery & equipment, impacted by the continuing political instability in the eurozone and the increase of downside risks in the global economy. Growth of Industrial Production Index yoy % 80 80 Machinery & equipment Computer, electronic & optical products 60 60 Electronic parts & components Basic metals 40 40 Chemical materials Industry 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs, May 2012. 9
  • 10. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Unemployment Rate and Labor Force Participation Rate In April 2012, the unemployment rate stood at 4.10%, down 0.07 of a percentage point from the previous month, and 0.19 of a percentage point lower than a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.19%. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.02 of a percentage point from the previous month to 58.15%, up 0.24 of a percentage point from a year earlier. 59.0 12 Labor force participation rate (left scale) 58.15 11 58.5 Labor force participation rate % Unemployment rate (right scale) 58.0 10 57.5 9 Unemployment rate % 57.0 8 56.5 7 56.0 6 55.5 5 55.0 4 4.10 54.5 3 54.0 2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: DGBAS, May 2012. 10
  • 11. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Prices In May 2012,Taiwan’s CPI increased by 1.74% from the same month last year. The most significant changes in CPI components were increases in the prices of food, tobacco and clothing. These price rises were partially offset by declining prices of transportation and communication. Core prices (excluding fresh food and energy prices) increased 0.89%. The WPI in May fell by 0.64% year on year, due mainly to the decreasing prices of basic metals, chemical material and fabricated metal products. These price declines were partially offset by rising prices of petroleum and coal products, crude petroleum and natural gas. yoy % 15 15 CPI 10 10 WPI 1.74 5 5 0 0 -0.64 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: DGBAS, Jun. 2012. 11
  • 12. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Money Supply  In April 2012, the annual growth rate of M1B rose to 3.77%, mainly because the daily averages of enterprises’ passbook deposits grew substantially. The annual growth rate of M2 declined to 4.72%, mainly due to a net foreign capital outflow.  In April 2012, the monthly growth rates of M1B and M2, measured on a daily average basis, were -0.02% and 0.05% respectively. Note: The definition of M2 was changed in January 2012 to exclude structured products issued by banks. This historical data revision was retrospective to January 2001. Source: Central Bank of China (Taiwan). 12
  • 13. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Short-term Interest Rates  In an environment of ample excess savings, foreign capital inflows and relatively stable domestic inflation, the benchmark interest rates remain at low levels. In April 2012, the commercial paper rate stood at 0.79%, unchanged from the previous month, and the interbank rate rose to 0.476%.  To help Taiwan’s economy maintain stable growth amid global economic uncertainties, and with the need to closely monitor price movements in 2012, % the CBC decided to keep interest rates unchanged in March 2012. Source: Central Bank of China (Taiwan). 13
  • 14. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Stock Price Volatility in Taiwan’s stock market has continued for a while, due to the government’s plan to impose a stock capital gains tax as well as increases in gasoline and electricity prices. Under the impact of these factors, Taiwan’s stock exchange index fluctuated between 7,600 and 8,020 in the first four months of this year. In April 2012, due to lingering uncertainties over the stock capital gains tax, the average closing level of Taiwan’s stock exchange index decreased by 4.98% to 7,621 from March. Source: Taiwan Stock Exchange. 14
  • 15. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Taiwan Business Indicators In April 2012, although the Taiwan Business Indicators still pointed to many downside risks for the economy, the pace of decline in some components moderated. The annualized six-month rate of change of the leading index was 6.6%, up by 0.7 percentage points from March 2012, but the trend-adjusted coincident index decreased by 0.1% to 95.9. Note: The shaded areas represent recessions. Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD). 15
  • 16. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Monitoring Indicators Reflecting the downturn of Taiwan’s economy, the monitoring indicators posted a total score of 14 in April 2012, and the overall monitoring indicator flashed the "blue" signal for the sixth consecutive month. Source: CEPD. 16
  • 17. I. CURRENT DOMESTIC SITUATION Monitoring Indicators and Economic Growth Note: The shaded areas represent recessions. Source: CEPD. 17
  • 18. II. PROSPECTS FOR 2012 Taiwan's economic growth to gradually rally - In the first half of 2011, Taiwan’s real GDP grew 5.54% yoy, mainly on the back of substantial growth in exports. Since the second half of 2011, Taiwan’s export performance has been affected by the slowdown in western economies and the weakening of external demand. In the whole of 2011,Taiwan’s real GDP posted a moderate growth of 4.03% . - According to the preliminary estimate released by the DGBAS, Taiwan posted a year-on-year real GDP growth rate of 0.39% in the first quarter of 2012. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (saar) of real GDP growth is 2.82%. - Mainly due to the still highly uncertain outlook for the global economy, the 2012 GDP growth forecast has been revised to 3.03% in the DGBAS’s latest estimation, down 0.82 of a percentage point from February’s forecast of 3.85%. However, Taiwan’s real GDP growth is expected to improve quarter by quarter this year (from 0.39% in Q1 to 6.65% in Q4). - Per capita GNP is projected to rise to US$21,189 in 2012. 18
  • 19. II. PROSPECTS FOR 2012 Export growth expected to be limited - The weaker than last year’s growth of world trade, together with the gradual localization of supply chains in mainland China and the greater competitive stress on high-tech companies from large foreign enterprises, may limit Taiwan’s export growth this year. However, with the launch of innovative ICT products, the US government’s incentive measures to encourage domestic investment, and the replacement of machinery and equipment damaged by flooding in Thailand, which will induce demand for exports from Taiwan, goods and services exports are projected to increase by 3.13% in 2012. - Over the whole of 2012, goods and services imports are projected to grow by 0.18% based on rising demand induced by export and investment. 19
  • 20. II. PROSPECTS FOR 2012 Private consumption set for moderate growth -Limited wage growth and rising prices have hurt consumers’ purchasing power, while the reduced wealth effect due to stock market volatility has also weighed on consumer confidence. However, with the improving employment situation and the easing of unpaid leave in some enterprises, private consumption is projected to rise by 2.03% in 2012. 20
  • 21. II. PROSPECTS FOR 2012 Domestic investment likely to expand slightly - Although private fixed investment decreased by 9.4% in the first quarter in 2012, and investment in the DRAM and opto-electronic industries is still running slow, there are some favorable factors for domestic investment, such as plans by semiconductor manufacturers with technical advantages to increase investment in advanced technologies, plans by Japanese firms to set up plants in Taiwan to disperse their operating risk after being hit by natural disasters at home and in Thailand, the growth of foreign visitors inducing tourism industry investment, and the government’s “Invest in Taiwan” initiative yielding increasing effects. Over the whole of 2012, private fixed investment is projected to slightly increase by 0.52%. - Government fixed investment in 2012 is expected to reach NT$427.2 billion, but still show a decline of 11.38% year on year. 21
  • 22. II. PROSPECTS FOR 2012 Inflation rising moderately - Though oil and raw material prices have fallen back recently due to the resurgence of the European debt crisis and the slowdown of economic growth in mainland China, the supply risks for crude oil in the Middle East are still high. The WPI is forecast to rise 1.49% in 2012. - The government’s decision to raise petrol prices on April 2 and to hike electricity prices in one fell swoop on May 15 initially put upward pressure on domestic prices. However, CPC has lowered petrol prices nine times since early April, and the electricity rate rise has been adjusted to a 3-stage increase1, which, together with the effect of active government price stabilization measures and stable housing rents, should help ease inflationary pressure. The CPI is forecast to rise by 1.84% in the whole of 2012, slightly higher than last year’s 1.42%. Note: 1.The first stage will begin June 10, with 40 percent of the previously announced price hike instituted. Another 40 percent of the planned increase will follow six months later, on December 10. Whether the remaining 20 percent of the proposed increase is implemented will depend on Taiwan Power Company’s cost-saving reform measures and their results. 22
  • 23. Forecasts for Taiwan’s Economy Real GDP Consumer Prices (yoy, %) (yoy, %) 2011r 2012f 2011 2012f DGBAS (2012.5) 4.03 3.03 [3.38] 1.42 1.84 [1.94] TIER (2012.4) 3.48 [3.96] 1.98 [1.46] CIER (2012.4) 3.55 [4.07] 1.93 [1.48] Polaris (2012.3) 3.88 [3.93] 1.57 [1.30] IEAS (2011.12) 3.81 1.16 Global Insight (2012.5) 3.5 [3.8] 1.6 [1.4] EIU (2012.5) 2.8 [2.8] 2.0 [1.5] IMF (2012.4) 3.6 [5.0] - ADB (2012.4) 3.4 [4.1] - CIER: Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research, Taipei. TIER: Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, Taipei. IEAS: Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica DGBAS: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, ROC (Taiwan). Polaris: Polaris Research Institute. [ ] indicates the value of previous forecasts. 23
  • 24. III. Conclusion • Global economic growth is expected to improve in the second half of this year, though the downside risks to growth are still substantial. The worsening crisis in Europe due to political instability and decelerating economic expansion in mainland China will be a drag on Taiwan’s export performance. At the same time, the gasoline and electricity price adjustments have increased consumers’ inflation expectation, exerting a negative impact on private consumption. In 2012, Taiwan’s real GDP is forecast to rise by 3.03%, with the quarterly growth rate improving gradually from 0.39% in Q1 to 6.65% in Q4. • The government will continue to implement the “Economic Climate Response Program” featuring seven sets of strategies for stabilizing finance, holding down prices, increasing employment, promoting investment, helping industries, pepping up consumption, and boosting exports. At the same time, the government will monitor prices closely and take active price stabilization measures to avoid price fluctuation influenced by gasoline and electricity price adjustments. • Furthermore, the government will carry out the next wave of measures for reshaping Taiwan’s economic structure, including strengthening technological innovation, bolstering cultural & creative enterprise, enhancing R&D and innovation, promoting the revitalization of traditional industries, and emphasizing the development of service industries, especially those that export services. At the same time, the government will promote the expansion of exports to emerging markets and diversification of export products. These initiatives should ensure that sound progress is kept up toward endowing Taiwan with a vigorous and sustainable new economy. 24
  • 25. STATISTICAL ANNEX TABLES I. Real GDP Growth (Change from a year ago) Domestic demand Net foreign demand Economic Consumption Gross fixed capital formation Exports Less: growth Increase of Imports of Total Private Public in Total Private Gov't Subtotal Gov't goods & goods & sector enterprises inventory services services 2004 6.19 7.36 5.17 0.57 13.96 25.62 -20.60 -9.59 -- -- 15.40 17.50 2005 4.70 1.83 2.90 0.19 2.66 1.53 14.77 2.82 -- -- 7.78 3.16 2006 5.44 0.97 1.49 -0.71 0.07 3.31 -8.61 -11.21 -- -- 11.41 4.57 2007 5.98 1.42 2.08 2.09 0.55 1.36 1.57 -4.46 -- -- 9.55 2.98 2008 0.73 -2.35 -0.93 0.83 -12.36 -15.58 -1.98 1.18 -- -- 0.87 -3.71 2009 -1.81 -3.71 0.76 4.01 -11.25 -18.15 2.14 15.94 -- -- -8.68 -13.10 2010 10.72 9.78 3.67 0.58 23.99 33.84 8.00 -3.10 -- -- 25.56 28.23 2011r 4.03 0.31 2.97 1.86 -3.89 -2.47 -14.32 -5.40 -- -- 4.53 -0.68 Q1 6.62 3.47 4.61 0.62 7.74 10.55 -15.97 0.69 -- -- 11.20 7.55 Q2 4.52 2.18 3.04 0.85 1.41 4.76 -15.01 -5.38 -- -- 4.94 1.78 Q3 3.45 -0.35 3.24 2.43 -9.13 -9.94 -3.47 -7.11 -- -- 2.10 -3.72 Q4r 1.85 -3.70 1.06 3.19 -12.76 -13.19 -18.92 -7.37 -- -- 0.86 -7.40 2012f 3.03 0.97 2.03 0.05 -1.34 0.52 0.39 -11.38 -- -- 3.13 0.18 Q1p 0.39 -1.42 1.72 2.72 -10.54 -9.40 -14.96 -16.88 -- -- -3.29 -6.84 Q2f 0.77 -0.41 1.67 0.75 -1.93 0.55 -0.68 -14.80 -- -- 1.00 -0.59 Q3f 4.00 1.78 2.09 -0.71 1.78 3.49 3.09 -7.68 -- -- 5.98 3.33 Q4f 6.65 3.89 2.64 -1.89 5.14 8.81 6.05 -8.25 -- -- 8.42 5.02 P = preliminary; f = forecast; r = revised. Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics (DGBAS), May 2012. 25
  • 26. STATISTICAL ANNEX TABLES II. Contributions to GDP Growth (in percentage points) Domestic demand Net foreign demand Economic Consumption Gross fixed capital formation Exports Less: growth Increase of Imports of Total Private Public in Total Private Gov't Subtotal Gov't goods & goods & sector enterprises inventory services services 2004 6.19 7.34 3.27 0.08 3.12 4.01 -0.46 -0.43 0.88 -1.15 8.86 10.01 2005 4.70 1.85 1.81 0.03 0.64 0.28 0.25 0.11 -0.63 2.86 4.86 2.00 2006 5.44 0.95 0.92 -0.09 0.02 0.59 -0.16 -0.42 0.10 4.49 7.34 2.85 2007 5.98 1.34 1.23 0.25 0.12 0.24 0.02 -0.14 -0.27 4.65 6.49 1.85 2008 0.73 -2.11 -0.53 0.10 -2.61 -2.62 -0.03 0.03 0.94 2.84 0.61 -2.23 2009 -1.81 -3.24 0.43 0.46 -2.07 -2.56 0.03 0.45 -2.05 1.42 -6.11 -7.53 2010 10.72 8.35 2.11 0.07 3.99 3.97 0.12 -0.10 2.17 2.37 16.73 14.36 2011r 4.03 0.26 1.60 0.21 -0.73 -0.35 -0.21 -0.16 -0.82 3.77 3.36 -0.40 Q1 6.62 3.01 2.63 0.07 1.35 1.49 -0.16 0.02 -1.03 3.60 8.04 4.44 Q2 4.52 1.83 1.62 0.09 0.26 0.66 -0.23 -0.17 -0.14 2.69 3.76 1.07 Q3 3.45 -0.30 1.73 0.27 -1.79 -1.54 -0.04 -0.21 -0.51 3.75 1.55 -2.19 Q4r 1.85 -3.07 0.55 0.38 -2.42 -1.75 -0.41 -0.26 -1.58 4.92 0.64 -4.28 2012f 3.03 0.79 1.08 0.01 -0.23 0.07 0.00 -0.30 -0.07 2.24 2.33 0.10 Q1p 0.39 -1.20 0.97 0.27 -1.85 -1.38 -0.12 -0.35 -0.59 1.59 -2.47 -4.06 Q2f 0.77 -0.34 0.88 0.08 -0.34 0.08 -0.01 -0.41 -0.95 1.11 0.77 -0.34 Q3f 4.00 1.45 1.11 -0.08 0.31 0.47 0.03 -0.20 0.11 2.54 4.37 1.83 Q4f 6.65 3.05 1.36 -0.23 0.84 1.00 0.10 -0.27 1.08 3.59 6.23 2.64 P = preliminary; f = forecast; r = revised. Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics (DGBAS), May 2012. 26
  • 27. Thank you This summary is prepared by the Department of Economic Research of the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD). Quarterly updates can be found on the CEPD’s website at http://www.cepd.gov.tw/encontent. For inquiries send an e-mail to bci@cepd.gov.tw.
  • 28. APPENDIX Economic Climate Response Program Council for Economic Planning and Development, Executive Yuan
  • 29. Contents I. Introduction II. Seven Strategies, Ten Focuses III. Concrete Measures 29
  • 30. I. Introduction To address the changing situation of the European debt crisis in the external realm and issues arising from transition and adjustment of the industrial structure in the internal realm, the Executive Yuan at its 3,271st meeting on November 3, 2011 approved the establishment of a Task Force on Economic Climate Response Strategy. Meeting under the convenership of Deputy Premier Sean Chen, the task force was charged with bringing together all related Cabinet agencies for proposal and discussion of response strategies, to be compiled by the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) into the Economic Climate Response Program. Since the second half of 2011, Taiwan’s export performance has been affected by the slowdown in Western economies and the weakening of external demand. Hence, it is necessary to devise export-boosting strategies. At the same time, although domestic demand played a major role in the economy in 2011, there is still a need for instituting action to pep it up further, to ensure that domestic demand and exports continue to serve as twin engines for the propulsion of economic growth. Taiwan’s economy rests on very sound foundations, and the seven strategies and ten focuses mapped out in this program will enable the government to actively address and respond to crises arising from changes in the international environment. 30
  • 31. II. Seven Strategies, Ten Focuses  Seven strategies 1. Stabilizing finance 2. Holding down prices 3. Increasing employment 4. Promoting investment 5. Helping industries 6. Pepping up consumption 7. Boosting exports 31
  • 32. Ten Focuses 1. LED road lighting islandwide (MOEA) . 2. Energy-saving home appliance rewards (MOED) . 3. Everyone joining together for urban renewal (MOI) . 4. Rewards to promote green building (MOI). 5. Excellent Tourism in Taiwan (MOTC). 6. All-out implementation of benchmark public works (PCC). 7. Establishing the TJ Park (Taiwan-Japan Park) in the Southern Taiwan Science Park (NSC). 8. The “umbrella for rainy days” initiative to maintain an unbroken supply of business funding (FSC). 9. The Plan to Train Local Manpower for Emerging Industries (CEPD) and the Recharge and Restart Training Project (CLA). 10. Action plan to help businesses vie for orders in export markets around the world (MOEA). 32
  • 33. III. Concrete Measures 1.Stabilizing finance 1. Stabilize financial markets FSC 2. Implement appropriate monetary policy CBC 2. Holding down prices 1. Respond to special economic situation by MOF dynamically reducing taxes to hold down prices 2. Combat cartels to protect consumer rights FTC 3. Crack down on illegal hoarding and price gouging MOJ 33
  • 34. 3. Increasing employment 1. Carry out the Plan to Train Local Manpower for Emerging CEPD Industries 2. Promote the Recharge and Restart Training Project 3. Vocational Training Plan for the Unemployed 4. Project to Develop Multiple Employment CLA 5. Employment Subsidy Schemes for Temporary Work 6. Extend the implementation period of subsidies for temporary work in post-Typhoon Morakot reconstruction 7. Carry out the Farm Trainee Project COA 34
  • 35. 4. Promoting investment 1. Speed up the expansion of private participation in public works and urban MOI renewal. 2. Speed up the implementation of benchmark public works, such as the Demonstration Plan for the Comprehensive Management of Coastal Land PCC MOI Subsidence Areas in Chiayi County’s Dongshi Township. 3. Carry out active review for loosening the scope of and restrictions on PCC mainland Chinese investment in public works in Taiwan. 4. Expand green buildings awards MOI 5. Promote Taiwanese investment in strengthening Taiwan MOEA 6. Attract Japanese investment in Taiwan 7. Establish the TJ Park (Taiwan-Japan Park) NSC 8. Activate public land MOF 9. Continue to carry out the “Invest in Taiwan” initiative CEPD 10. Keep implementing the “Homes for Industries, Industries for Homes” plan 35
  • 36. 4. Promoting investment (continued) 11. Speed up the construction of a national convention and exhibition center (expansion of the Nangang Exhibition Hall) MOEA 12. Accelerate construction of the Kaohsiung World Trade Exhibition and Conference Center 13. Conduct the award of contracts for building affordable housing at A7 Station on MOI the Taoyuan Airport MRT Line 36
  • 37. 5. Helping industries 1. Form and operate the MOEA’s cross-cabinet joint task force for MOEA consultation visits. 2. Extend measures to strengthen the Small and Medium Credit Guarantee MOEA Fund of Taiwan FSC 3. The “umbrella for rainy days” initiative – helping enterprises obtain their needed operating funds, to maintain an unbroken supply of business funding. FSC 4. Install LED road lighting islandwide. 5. Provide service points for assistance to SMEs. MOEA 6. Reduce barriers to merger and acquisition of enterprises. 7. Provide anti-dumping relief. MOF 8. Encourage private participation in public works investment. 9. Institute taxi maintenance and renewal measures – subsidies for the replacement old taxis. MOTC 37
  • 38. 6. Pepping up consumption 1. Subsidize the public’s purchase (replacement) of energy-saving home appliances. 2. Expand business opportunities for the MICE industry. MOEA 3. Integrate tourism itineraries for local industries. 4. Promote consumption by the general public through the “Go” prize draw. 5. Reduce the rate of commodity tax levied on hybrid LPG vehicles. MOF 6. Exempt electric vehicles from license plate tax. 7. Promote tourism and high-end products in the agricultural sector. COA 8. Implement on-site small-amount tax rebates for purchases by foreign MOF visitors. 38
  • 39. 7. Boosting exports 1. Continuous drive to secure export orders - Develop new export channels month after month, win new buyers week after week, create new business openings day after day, generate new opportunities all the time, and form groups to go out in pursuit of export orders. 2. Progressively expand marketing channels. 3. Promote Taiwanese brands and international image of Taiwan’s MOEA industries. 4. Enhance the New Cheng Ho Plan. 5. Extend the invitation of heavy buyers to Taiwan. 6. Strengthen support for groups to participate in and vie for orders at international fairs. 7. Actively promote bilateral investment and trade with countries that are achieving high growth and have had relatively little business dealing with CEPD Taiwan in the past. 8. Expand service exports – increase the number of tourists coming to MOTC, MOI Taiwan. MAC, MOEA 9. Preferential tax rates. MOF 10. Raise overall customs clearance efficiency. 11. Carry out an international marketing plan for agricultural products. COA 39