Future of agriculture Tasmania

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  • Food security is a complex topic. It includes people (social), money, governments, and the environment. Ensuring food security may include changing behaviour – not just behaviour of an individual, but of an entire nation or the whole world. It crosses political lines, it crosses personal values. It can start wars. It could result in compulsory acquisition of land It has the potential to directly affect everyone of us.
  • “ What happens when the food runs out” Currently 6 – 7 billion Declining resources – Julian Cribb (will be talking at the TFGA Future of Ag Policy Forum 2 June) - concepts of “peak water”, peak land, peak oil, peak potassium, peak fish - peak land – related to degraded or very degraded soil Peak phosphorus – world rock phosphate production declining “ The maximum wild capture fishery potential from the world’s oceans has probably been reached” FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation of WHO). If current fishing trends continue, all of the commercial fisheries will have collapsed by 2050. Predictions of 4x more drought
  • Recycle it, get into compost, eat more vegetables and support Tasmanian farmers in their pleas for a fair price.
  • Future of agriculture Tasmania

    1. 1. The future of agriculture in Tasmania Jane Lovell TQA Australia AUSTRALIA
    2. 2. The future <ul><li>When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened. </li></ul><ul><li>The future belongs to those who prepare for it today. </li></ul><ul><li>A fixed image of the future is in the worst sense a historical. </li></ul><ul><li>Morning comes whether you set the alarm or not. </li></ul><ul><li>And in today already walks tomorrow. </li></ul><ul><li>Learn the past, watch the present, and create the future. </li></ul>
    3. 4. Session overview <ul><li>Talking </li></ul><ul><li>Thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Watching </li></ul><ul><li>Action? </li></ul>
    4. 5. Potential futures <ul><li>Impacted by: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Politics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Demographics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Finances </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Climate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DECISIONS </li></ul></ul>
    5. 6. Food security <ul><li>Access at all times to an available and reliable supply of adequate, safe and nutritious food. </li></ul>
    6. 7. Social Enabling Environment Economic Enabling Environment Environment and Natural Resources Base Policy Enabling Environment Food security for all Crises and pandemic crisis management Market Intelligence Investment capital Infrastructure and logistics WA Dept Ag “Plan to Support Food Industry Development 2009 - 2012
    7. 8. Some global scenarios <ul><li>What happens when the food runs out? </li></ul><ul><li>Population 9 billion by 2050 and eating like the equivalent of 14 billion in today’s terms </li></ul><ul><li>Declining resources </li></ul><ul><li>By 2050 we will need 2 Planet Earths to sustain us! </li></ul>
    8. 9. Global challenge <ul><li>Double food production with: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Half present fresh water </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Far less land </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No fossil fuels (eventually) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scarce and costlier fertilisers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More drought and climatic variability </li></ul></ul>
    9. 10. Consequences <ul><li>What do people think about when they are hungry? </li></ul><ul><li>What do people do when they are hungry? </li></ul>
    10. 11. Julian Cribb, 2010
    11. 12. Some Tasmanian scenarios <ul><li>Climate change expected to have less impact than on mainland </li></ul><ul><li> temp by 2.9 o C </li></ul><ul><li> frosts </li></ul><ul><li> chill hours in lower & warmer regions,  at higher elevations </li></ul><ul><li> in available heat – parts of Tassie like Coonawarra & Rutherglen </li></ul><ul><li>(Climate futures for Tasmania) </li></ul>
    12. 13. Some Tasmanian scenarios <ul><li>Water run-off  &  (  Derwent Valley and Midlands,  central highlands) </li></ul><ul><li>drought  in NW and  in E and SE </li></ul><ul><li>Seasonal run-off likely to differ </li></ul><ul><li>River flows  &  depending where you are </li></ul><ul><li>(Climate futures for Tasmania) </li></ul>
    13. 14. Some Tasmanian scenarios <ul><li> dryland pasture production (10 – 100%) </li></ul><ul><li> irrigated ryegrass yields ( 20 – 30%) to 2040, then decline as gets too hot </li></ul><ul><li> wheat yields (10 – 15%) </li></ul><ul><li> new weeds, pests and diseases </li></ul><ul><li>(Climate futures for Tasmania) </li></ul>
    14. 15. Some Tasmanian scenarios <ul><li>Demographics changing – more people over 65, less under 15 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Enid Blyton” land </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Distribution changes  King Island,  Brighton </li></ul>
    15. 16. <ul><li>Solutions? </li></ul>
    16. 17. Enough smart people to meet the challenge? <ul><li>Declining number of ag graduates from Australian Universities </li></ul>
    17. 18. Enough smart people to meet the challenge? <ul><li>Aus Uni’s producing ~ 800 graduates/yr in agriculture and agriculturally-related subjects </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture has only 7% graduates in workforce compared with 22% for national workforce </li></ul><ul><li>(Prof Roger Leigh, Australian Council of Deans of Agriculture) </li></ul>
    18. 19. Enough smart people to meet the challenge? <ul><li>Estimated there are 32,000 new jobs in ag each year </li></ul><ul><li>If only 7% were for Uni graduates demand would be >2000 </li></ul><ul><li>Other estimates are as high as 6000 graduates needed / yr </li></ul><ul><li>We only have 800, and declining..... </li></ul><ul><li>(Prof Roger Leigh, Australian Council of Deans of Agriculture) </li></ul>
    19. 20. Local solutions to global issue <ul><li>To feed the world we will need to produce more with less </li></ul><ul><li>Tassie is in a good position to “capitalise” </li></ul><ul><li>To produce more with less agriculture will not remain the same here </li></ul><ul><li>We need passionate, educated, versatile, resilient people </li></ul>
    20. 21. Local solutions to global issue <ul><li>Many options! </li></ul><ul><li>Awareness </li></ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><li>Personal decisions </li></ul>
    21. 22. Personal decisions <ul><li>So what does all this mean for </li></ul><ul><ul><li>you </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>us </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the Polytechnic? </li></ul></ul>
    22. 23. A new dawn for agriculture in Tasmania? I hope so! AUSTRALIA And in today already walks tomorrow .....

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