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Vale of White Horse District Council
LCLIP report
February 2009
Prepared by Mark Kowal
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CONTENTS:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
ABBREVIATIONS 5
1. INTRODUCTION AND OUTLINE 6
1.1 REPORT PURPOSE 6
1.2 STRUCTURE OUTLINE 6
2. CONTEXT 8
2.1 HOW DO CLIMATE AND WEATHER DIFFER? 8
2.2 CLIMATE CHANGE 8
2.3 VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS, CONSEQUENCES AND ADAPTATION 10
2.4 NI188 AND THE COUNCIL’S CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY 12
2.5 FUTURE CLIMATE - UKCIP 2008 HEADLINES 14
3. LCLIP FINDINGS 15
3.1 LOCAL CLIMATE IMPACTS PROFILE TOOL 15
3.2 WEATHER EVENTS OBSERVED - 2003 TO 2008 15
3.3 AWARENESS OF TRENDS IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE 15
3.4 LIST OF PROPOSED PRIORITY ACTIONS WITH SUGGESTED PRIORITY LEVELS 15
4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 26
4.1 SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES AND VULNERABILITIES 26
4.2 CONCLUSIONS 27
4.3 RECOMMENDATIONS 29
APPENDICES 31
APPENDIX 1: OXFORDSHIRE’S CLIMATE WITHIN GLOBAL CHANGE 31
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Local Climate Impact Profile (LCLIP) tool was designed by the UK Climate Impacts Programme
as a tool for assessing risks and opportunities to services, plans and estates under current climate.
By gathering an evidence base from the last five years and identifying action priorities, the Profile
contributes to VOWH’s climate change planning, and so prepare for future weather and climate.
An overview of climate science contrasts the mitigation and adaptation agendas. This explains that
the robust consensus within the science community about the gravity of climate threats, clearly
justifies the increasing obligation of organisations to increase preparedness for altered weather.
The distinction between weather and climate is made and the types of weather events listed. Data
from various sources set out recent Oxfordshire climate trends and local headlines, set within Central
England climate data. Recent changes in the length and intensity of all our season is an emerging
issue not usually picked up by LCLIPs, which usually focus on extreme weather reports.
The LCLIP data is appended with the title VOWH Weather Incidents Records Table. This is an easy-
print Word database holding significant media reports of local weather events over the last 5 years. A
definition is provided of the weather incidents, simply typed as Gales / Storms; Rain / Flood; Heat /
Sun; Snow / Ice. Media stories covering wider responses and policy issues are also included.
Local climate profile results are set out. River flooding is the highest weather risk for the Vale, while
other types of extreme weather had a clearly marginal impact on VOWH services. Due to river
watershed topography, VOWH as a geographical district is significantly less well-buffered against
flood weather impacts than sister authority SODC. Altering seasonality may raise costs slightly for
VOWH, as the summer season extends under occasionally very wet summers.
Vale of White Horse is a well-buffered region with some adaptation actions already underway, both
autonomously and planned under VOWH’s Climate Change Strategy. Flooding is the major high-risk
type of weather currently affecting the District. Even so, UK and local trends show that, we must
anticipate weather surprises as extreme events, shifting seasons and year-on-year warming.
Adaptation action should follow certain principles and take advantage of partnerships with
organisational allies.
Overall, there are no cases of weather events overwhelming VOWH services and the direct costs of
weather events are very limited. Autonomous adaptation by services is already occurring as part of
good management and risk assessment. Staff have a good initial awareness of climate change
issues, though this could be further built up through targeted actions.
Even though coping with wilder weather is not yet raising costs or causing great difficulties, extreme
events are trending upwards and will become an ever more serious concern. Even if we have yet to
see large and consistent changes to the UK’s climate and weather, global temperatures will continue
to rise, as will levels of atmospheric humidity and rainfall intensity. Biodiversity zones, species and
habitats will move. In the medium-term, it is very likely that the impacts and consequences of more
chaotic weather patterns and events will become more diverse and serious.
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National Indicator 188 sets out a clear adaptation planning route for LAs to follow and was adopted
as a priority indicator in Oxfordshire’s LAA. This profiling exercise should become the basis for an
internally-managed appraisal of vulnerabilities that could be tackled within an overall Adaptation
Action Plan.
Once LCLIP findings are incorporated into a wider evidence base during 2009 and 2010, VOWH
services would then develop and implement a comprehensive VOWH climate adaptation programme,
as set out for Level 3 of NI 188.
To approach Level 2 of NI188 by the end FY 2010, a small number of breakthrough projects should
be implemented to help VOWH develop experience about how ‘to do adaptation’. Projects should be
of two kinds, internally for VOWH services; and secondly managed with LSP partners and chosen to
build local resilience and broader adaptive capacity. An option would be to focus on heatwaves as a
social risk issue with LSP partners alongside the PCT. Ten action priorities are selected using best
judgement as the most relevant and useful candidates for initial action in the next two years.
LCLIP data should be located in the context of future climate information by examining scenario data
soon available through UKCIP. This can help identify key thresholds, based on Council risk appetite.
By examining likely weather impacts expected for each service under UKCIP scenarios, the
thresholds for particular weather variables can then be decided. These, once overtopped, would
allow specific service reactions to kick-in, such as enhanced emergency responses or longer term
Council, LSP or other local actions. Establishing thresholds and exceedance probabilities can help
decide which specific adaptive capacities should be built-up, how to work with partners.
It is recommended that county-wide OCC, VOWH, other Districts and other LSP members should
design a relevant monitoring system for weather variables and impacts. This should cover the
implications of gradual seasonal changes on biodiversity and for business planning.
Benefits are emphasised of VOWH taking part in the evolving communities of practice, such as
cross-council work already underway on sharing best practice in building Control and development
Planning. This demonstrates that VOWH is already working at a high response level.
VOWH is on track to reach and exceed Level 1 in 2008/9, Level 2 in 2008/10 and Level 3 in 2010/11,
as planned.
Going further, the guidance supplied suggests that VOWH’s action on climate change adaptation
must not become a process for process's sake. This may be a risk if Council work is narrowly driven
just by efforts to reach government and LAA performance targets.
As the work evolves, a clearer idea will be generated as to the positive outcomes stemming from
tackling adaptation, in terms of success for VOWH as an organisation, and as the LSP gets involved,
for Vale of White Horse citizens and other stakeholders. VOWH champions, teams and managers
should broaden the drivers of VOWH council action by engaging in LSP and county-wide actions.
In the end, to be successful on the ground, climate change adaptation needs to become a lens
through which local sustainable development is viewed. In this way, the adaptation approach will
progressively become integrated within decision-making across the LSP, and by wider community
stakeholders.
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ABBREVIATIONS
BACLIAT
BAP
Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool
Biodiversity Action Plan
CC
CET
CO2
CDC
CTAs
Climate Change
Central England Temperature
Carbon dioxide
Cherwell District Council
Conservation Target Areas
Defra Dept. for Rural Affairs and Agriculture
EA Environment Agency
ESCC Cherwell’s Environmental Strategy for a Changing Climate
GOSE Government Office for the South East
HPA Health Protection Authority
IdeA
IPCC
Improvement and Development Agency for Local Government
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LAA Local Area Agreement
LAA2 Oxfordshire Local Area Agreement running 2008 - 2011
LCLIP Local Climate Impacts Profile
LSP Local Strategic Partnership
NI National Indicator
NDAP Nottingham Declaration Action Pack
OM & OT
OCC
Oxford Mail, Oxford Times
Oxfordshire County Council
PPS
ppm
PCT
Planning Policy Statement
parts per million
Primary Care Trust
SODC South Oxfordshire District Council
SEEDA
SPS
SUDS
South East Development Agency
Supplementary Planning Document
Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems
UKCIP UK Climate Impacts Programme
VOWH Vale of White Horse
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1. INTRODUCTION AND OUTLINE
1.1 REPORT PURPOSE
This report should assist VOWH to assess the risks and opportunities arising from a changing climate
across the District, to determine priority needs, and further develop adaptation action plans. The
purpose is two-fold:
(i) To present an evidence base and resource for building awareness, that examines how the last
five years’ of extreme weather events has affected VOWH services. This is a response to the
question - how does current weather under today’s climate poses risks for VOWH?
(ii) Contribute to VOWH’s approach to climate change adaptation planning, by underscoring the
steadily growing importance of integrating Council adaptation actions, alongside mitigation.
At this stage, the report only presents an initial scoping of VOWH’s risks and vulnerabilities, using
UKCIP’s Local Climate Impacts Profile tool (LCLIP). The VOWH Service Development Management
will use the findings to develop VOWH’s strategy, jointly with Service Heads and team leaders.
The LCLIP assessment covers current impacts of recent weather events, identifies the relationships
of weather to service delivery, and establishes the prevalence of damaging impacts from weather on
service delivery, staff resources, finances and reputation. The profile helps the local authority identify
vulnerabilities and plan how to tackle them. As it makes use of media reports, the LCIP approach
offers a simple entry point into what seems like complex data.
A limitation of this report is that, if we only restricted ourselves to looking backwards, it would not be
possible to explore fully the implications of climate change. LCLIP data needs to be examined
alongside future climate change scenarios. This involves Council teams and managers making use of
UKCIP information.
This study will have achieved its purpose, once its findings are incorporated into a wider evidence
base. That will happen once VOWH services consider actions based on both the historical weather
record and taking into account future probabilities.
Implementing this study’s recommendations will move VOWH, with LSP partners, through the
performance levels of National Indicator 188. As part of that wider effort, the report has some
implications for VOWH’s Local Strategic Partnership through the Sustainable Community Strategy.
1.2 STRUCTURE OUTLINE
The sections of this report are:
Section two that sets out the context by defining how climate and weather differ, and provides an
overview of climate science impacts studies and adaptation. A more in-depth review of the physical
basis of climate change is set out in Appendix 1.
Section 2.3 explains how mitigation differs from adaptation and explains the terms vulnerability,
impacts and consequences, and that adaptation usually is carried out in two stages.
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Some comment is then provided on National Indicator 188 as a guide for the wider process that local
authorities are expected to follow, as they scale the four performance levels. Mention is made of how
VOWH’s current work fits within work with OCC and other Districts, as the Oxfordshire Strategic
Partnership delivers NI 188. The UKCIP-developed Local Climate Impacts Profile Tool is presented
as the scoping tool used for this report.
The last part of Section 2 provides a summary of UKCIP headline messages about how the climate
will likely alter in coming decades.
Section 3 starts with an explanation of the LCLIP method, presents findings and analyzes these. Part
3.1 gives some information about frequencies of observed weather events.
The data collected in the media trawl is set into a summary table with hyper-links to the events that
happened as detailed in Appendix 2. This appendix is a Word table titled ‘VOWH Weather Incidents
Table’, which holds the database of media reports - the evidence core of this study. Totals are given
for the major kinds of weather events experienced over the last 5 years.
Part 3.2 reports on in-depth findings from each service team interviewed. This makes up the bulk of
this report. Each section concludes with some suggested action priorities. These have been carefully
compared with Actions set out in VOWH’s Environmental Strategy for a Changing Climate.
Further validated, these would become the subjects of risk analysis and prioritisation to check for
suitability as ‘projects’ under an ‘VOWH adaptation programme’. Action priorities would be designed
to plug significant vulnerabilities related to poorly-addressed weather / climate risks. Undertaking
these is essential for Level 3 achievement of NI 188 titled – ‘Comprehensive action plan with
prioritised action in priority areas’.
Section 4 provides Conclusions and Recommendations. The chief suggestion is to use the findings
from this LCLIP as the basis for a comprehensive adaptation action plan drawn up and implemented
by in due course to deliver concrete benefits.
The final section suggests some candidate key action priorities from the larger set supplied in Section
3, supplies some guidance and .
Significant vulnerabilities are listed and further decision options for VOWH are established.
Appendices supply the Interview Format used and the full table of weather incidents derived from the
LCLIP media trawl.
Appendix 3 sets out in a table what the typical impacts of extreme weather are for communities,
businesses & environment, as well as consequences for services, plans and estates of a typical
central England District Council.
Appendix 1 provides a profile of Oxfordshire’s climate under UK and global change. This covers data
from various sources, including the Met Office Oxford station and a detailed analysis taken from the
Radcliffe Observatory. Data from these sources explains trends, which are set into the context of
Central England analyses. Internet references are supplied.
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2. CONTEXT
2.1 HOW DO CLIMATE AND WEATHER DIFFER?
Adaptation responses address the impacts of weather events under ‘the climate’. The main difference
between long-term climate and everyday weather, is summarised in the phrase "....climate is what
you expect, weather is what you get....."
Weather is the way the atmosphere is behaving and its effects upon life and human activities, in
terms of local temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, brightness, visibility, windiness and
atmospheric pressure. It consists of short-term (minutes to months) changes is the day-to-day state
of the lower atmosphere and upper ocean. Weather variables are values of air temperature,
precipitation, sunshine, days of frost and snow cover and air/vapour pressure.
Climate is the description of the long-term patterns, averages and variations of the weather in a
region over a long period. It is defined as long-term statistical information about the weather,
describing the variation at a given place for a specified interval.
The variables that decide our local climate zone include a location’s latitude, altitude, proportion of
land to water, and distance to oceans and from mountains. Formally for the UK ‘it is the weather of a
locality averaged over thirty years, plus statistics of weather extremes’, chosen as a period long
enough to provide a reliable average that included the usual peaks and troughs of natural variability.
The overall definition covers atmospheric and physical components - ocean circulation, the Earth’s
surface reflectivity, atmospheric chemistry, terrestrial/marine biospheres, ice-cover and vegetation
patterns. External influences on the climate system come from the effects of the Sun, volcanic
emissions, and from human additions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and alterations of land surfaces.
Oxfordshire’s climate, within Central England and global climate, is described in detail in Appendix 1.
2.2 CLIMATE CHANGE
A solid scientific consensus holds that human emissions of GHGs have disrupted the Earth’s energy
balance. There are unequivocal signs of warming over land, oceans and the atmosphere. The
resulting climate change is altering the values of meteorological variables, trends and cycles of
variability, over time scales of years or decades. These might be changes in wind patterns, monthly
temperatures and precipitation. Trends and shorter-term cycles in these variables must be set within
the bigger picture of longer-term, more permanent climate changes, looking back historically, or by
using forecasts of future climates.
Global average temperature has risen by about 0.8 °C over the past 100 years, with 1998 and 2005
tying as the warmest years in the climate record. The period 2001 - 2007 is 0.21°C warmer than the
1991-2000 decade. Even while 2008 felt like a ‘cool year’, it was in fact 0.1°C warmer than the
decade of the 1990s as a whole, and warmer than any year of the 20th
century, besides 1998.
Points about Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation were made in 2007 by the IPCC working group
that released the Adaptation Report and Summary:
Evidence from many parts of the world show that people, plants and animals are being affected
by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.
Warming caused by human activities is likely discernible influencing plants and animals.
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Impacts on water resources, ecosystems, agriculture and forestry, health and coastlines will likely
be negative across most regions, with short-term positive benefits.
It is very likely that all regions will experience rapid declines in any benefits, and great increases
in costs, if global average temperatures warm much more than 2 degrees C.
Risks of altering weather patterns can be reduced and the worst effects avoided, through a mix of
adaptation (better preparing for and responding to climate change impacts) and mitigation (e.g.
reducing greenhouse gas emissions).
Figure 1: Plot of global
annual temperatures
anomalies. This
compares years in the
historical record to
1961 – 1990 averages.
The dominance of red
bars shows that the ten
warmest years on
record have occurred
since 1997. 2008,
despite ‘cool’
conditions, was far
warmer than most of
the years, even
compared to the very
warm decade of the
1990’s. Source: Met
Office.
The decade 2001 – 2009 will almost certainly be the hottest decade in at least 2000 years, consistent
with the observed warming trend of 0.2 °C per decade. Under-developed countries exposed to
weather hazards are not the only ones that will be affected - climate scientists tell us that a
progressively-altering climate will become a key factor affecting UK economy and society, with
severe effects are predicted for southern Europe. Disruptive weather will become more common for
us in the UK, not just in the vulnerable developing world.
Impacts and consequences will be both direct and indirect, and may operate at local, national,
regional and international scales. In the longer-term, we can expect synergies between climate
change and other major stressors. Direct effects will arise from the weather events themselves. The
economy, society, markets and migration may become transmitters of indirect effects.
Trends and events might include a worsening financial depression, world/UK food scarcity, global
insecurity, movements of environmental refugees, in combination with global commodity exhaustion,
particularly energy scarcity and ‘peak oil’. Looking perhaps 10 to 20 years ahead, these effects may
interact to disrupt local livelihoods, even in affluent and well-buffered regions, such as Oxfordshire.
An altering climate not only deals out more frequent and more extreme weather events, it is shown
through modified seasonality. Local weather observers often notice that the ‘time of year’ is now
different. What used to be a series of reliable seasons, running through the year, have changed their
start and end dates, overall length and intensity. Alongside the physical changes to these averages,
our social understandings are evolving as individuals already adapt psychologically to altered
patterns of weather.
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2.3 VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS, CONSEQUENCES AND ADAPTATION
The 2003 heatwave calls to mind a great season of outdoor dining and waterside frolics. For many
residents though, those benefits paled beside the stress of being practically boiled alive, on roads
almost melting, perhaps stuck in a traffic jam. Worse, attending the heat-related illness of an elderly
friend or relative. Alongside the 2003 weather event, we maybe can recall the 2006 heatwave, the
2004 - 2006 drought and the floods of summer 2007.
The statement that we must tackle climate change has become familiar. We can act in two broad
areas – cutting carbon emissions through mitigation, and being prepared for increasing change to our
weather and climate though adaptation.
Adaptation starts from accepting that climate change is happening, so measures to help people adapt
are essential. The ‘adaptation agenda’ assumes that the changing climate will lead to impacts from
extreme weather events, and is based on the need to anticipate and cope with them.
The less mitigation humanity does now, the more difficult it will be to continually adapt in the future.
Given current negligible global control over human modification of our atmosphere, we will provoke
significant climate change in almost all regions of the world within one or two decades. The
‘adaptation agenda’ argues that we should build up our resilience and coping abilities, so we respond
much better to more severe and frequent extreme weather events.
As climate change alters UK weather patterns, climate scientists are confident severe weather events
will become more frequent. The graphic below uses a red line to show a heating trend stretching
forwards at the rate of 0.2 O
C per decade, with a blue curve of annual temperature ups and downs.
The yellow stars show major weather events when normal variability was exceeded, as with the
heatwave of 1976 and the cold winter of 1962.
The figure
shows weather
anomalies
taking the
warming trend
as their axis.
This is why hot
summers like
2003 or 2006
are increasingly
likely to repeat
in the mid-term.
2050s
2041 – 2070
2080s
2071– 2100
The2020s
2011 – 2040
Current Climate
Period 1991 – 2020
Long TermAverage
(1961 – 1990)
Today
+
- 1
9
9
0
B
as
e
lin
e
Increasing magnitude
of extreme events
1962
1976
Increasing frequency of extreme events
2003
Figure 2: Slide developed from Ian Bateman’s presentation
at UKCIP LCLIP seminar, London January 2008
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The green shaded range represents current coping capacity. Without adaptation future events, if
extreme and frequent, may cause impacts with consequences beyond our capabilities to respond.
Over-topping our coping capacity becomes more probable if Business as Usual greenhouse
emissions, lead to heating rates that take us above the current figure of 0.2 O
C per decade.
Therefore, while there is a lot of uncertainty about future climate changes, we do know enough to act.
Some important terms, to understand what adaptation involves, are:
Vulnerability depends on our locality and how we are exposed in different ways to weather hazards.
It relates to local landscapes, settlements, transport links and socio-economic characteristics of
exposed social groups and habitats. It is closely linked with the distribution of assets and access to all
kinds of capital – financial, human, social, physical and natural. Depending on the mix of assets
available across social groups, vulnerability is expressed in the varying levels of readiness of
communities to respond, short-term and long-term, to weather events under an altering climate.
The term ‘impacts’ describe the effects of different weather and climate events. Storm damage to
trees, and failed harvests during a drought, are examples of impacts caused by weather events.
Each major type of weather event may cause many kinds of specific incidents at differing locations
affecting socio-economic groups according to local patterns of vulnerability. In a heatwave, typical
incidents would involve evacuation of elderly care-home residents from overheated buildings and
fires in rural fields.
Consequences are key longer-term issues that overlap with our adaptation efforts. These occur
because of an event and due to our response to it, for example flooded-out families made homeless
for long periods due to poor insurance cover, official reviews of a weather event and plans made to
mitigate future risk. These could also be opportunities that we try to exploit, such as developing a
new tourism niche market or planting new crops.
Adaptation to climate trends and to weather events involves building capacities, generating
resilience and active risk management to minimise the adverse effects of climate change and take
advantage of any benefits. Two key facets of adaptation are building adaptive capacity and practical
adaptation actions.
Building adaptive capacity covers many of the initial local adaptation responses that a local council
needs to carry out first. Information on current vulnerabilities of services, communities and
businesses needs to be assembled and shared, research examined on future climate, and staff
capacities enhanced.
Practical adaptation actions, are both tangible and non-physical actions that reduce exposure to
hazards and cut the risks. These could involve:
• re-negotiated green spaces maintenance contracts to account for altering vegetation growth;
• the setting-up of local groups of residents and businesses to clear weeds out of rivers to reduce
flood risk; political lobbying for physical measures like flood defence bunds, as well as installing
early warning systems on local flooding;
• to cope with heatwaves, installing external shading and a green infrastructure of shade trees
around offices and schools, altering building specifications to ensure buildings keep cool, as well
as changing the school calendar to reduce the exposure of children.
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2.4 NI188 AND THE COUNCIL’S CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY
In December 2007 the Council adopted a Climate Change Strategy, which outlined that VOWH would
account for predicted changes in climate on service delivery and Council operations. The strategy
stated the Council would use local authority powers to influence others to adapt to climate change.
Specific actions included implementing a sustainable procurement protocol, agreeing to implement a
district wide climate change plan through the Vale Partnership / Oxfordshire Partnership, and active
promotion of adaptation measures by local communities.
Many local authorities have signed the Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change (see First and
Second Declarations). Advice to help services adapt to climate change is available. In 2008 National
Indicator 188 'Adapting to Climate Change' became part of the performance framework. The indicator
was a developed through joint work between Defra and the UK Climate Impacts Programme.
NI 188 sets the stages though which authorities should progress. Government advice states: …..this
indicator is designed to ensure local authority preparedness to manage risks to service delivery, the
public, local communities, local infrastructure, businesses and the natural environment from a
changing climate, and to make the most of new opportunities. The indicator measures progress on
assessing and managing climate risks and opportunities, and incorporating appropriate action into
local authority and partners’ strategic planning.
The end goal of these three instruments (NI 188, LAA, Nottingham Declaration) is to build-up
awareness of the issues, supply information to decision-makers and stimulate adaptation action,
ensuring risks are addressed and services respond well to weather impacts.
Defra has published NI 188 guidance, which establishes the aim ‘we are trying to ensure that
assessing the risks and opportunities from climate change is embedded across all decision making,
services and planning’. The stages are:
Level 1: Public commitment and prioritised risk-based assessment
Level 2: Comprehensive risk-based assessment and prioritised action in some areas
Level 3: Comprehensive action plans and prioritised action in all priority areas
Level 4: Implementation, monitoring and continuous review.
Adaptation is one of OCC’s four corporate priorities. With UKCIP support, in 2006 OCC identified
weather events costs of more than £16 m over 10 years (Oxfordshire Climate Impacts Profile).
NI 188 is part of Oxfordshire’s Local Area Agreement and the aim is to ensure an overall increase in
Oxfordshire’s performance from baseline to Level 3 by 2010 / 2011. The county-level outcomes:
Reduced risks to services and communities by controlling weather impacts
More robust areas of ecological habitats, able to absorb climate change
Organisations have integrated climate change into business and risk planning
Strategic plans for the building of resilience are developed that contribute to Sustainable
Community Strategies.
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According to the Target Proposal Form, actions agreed for implementing this indicator are:
• Service areas have considered impacts / risks and are implementing plans to address them
• Adaptation process targets: Oxfordshire Local Authorities agree to complete Levels 1 up to at
least 3 (even up to Level 4) within the 2008 - 2011 period
• Ensure new developments and infrastructure incorporate high adaptation levels
• Focus on conservation target areas for biodiversity and on incorporation of high-quality,
accessible and wildlife-rich green space into built development.
The main activity for a local authority to achieve Level 1, is to carry out an assessment of current
vulnerability to weather events. A tool for this is the Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP).
Further guidance on adaptation is set out below:
• Differently to the global argument about carbon reductions mitigating future change, adaptation
should be a specific process of stakeholder decision-making, in a context of specific threats and
opportunities. This makes adaptation into a local issue best carried out in partnership with
organisations on the ground, for example with strategic partners and with technical support for
example, from UKCIP to aid capacity-building.
• Looking backwards and at today’s vulnerabilities helps understand recent impacts. But the past
record is no longer the only guide to the future. Given that the climatic goalposts are moving, we
must examine the risks under future climate by analysing scenarios. Adaptation strategies and
actions should be robust against a wide variety of future conditions. We cannot predict future
impacts and provide certain ‘climate-proofing’ measures. Climate change involves a range of
futures for which current climate scenarios are an estimate.
• Effective adaptation equips people and institutions alike to cope with a wide range of
contingencies. Given that the climate will change continuously over coming decades (though
perhaps gradually), learning is achieved through periodic re-assessments that account for
changing conditions. Within the Council, proactive teamwork across exposed teams can decide
how often these reviews should happen to ensure service continuity under changing weather
conditions.
• This means that adaptation becomes a process of social and institutional learning that recognises
stakeholder processes and uses information at various levels. Action to promote adaptation is
best based on the so-called “3 A’s” - our awareness of the issue and what it means for us; our
grasp of what we can do as active agents; and our association with others to work together on the
issues.
• Appropriate communication tools to encourage consensus among stakeholders on adaptation
options rely on shared information and participatory techniques focused on exploring links,
conflicts and awareness-raising around potential adaptation pathways.
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2.5 FUTURE CLIMATE - UKCIP 2008 HEADLINES
The IPCC 4th
Assessment Report concluded that, depending on future emissions, by the end of the
21st century, global temperatures will increase to between 1.1 and 6.4°C above 1980 – ‘99 average.
UKCIP has prepared the following headline messages describing UK’s future climate. Some changes
have been assigned a confidence level, from high to low. Future changes are relative to 1961 - 1990.
The UK will continue to get warmer…
• By 2040, average annual temperature for the UK will rise by between 0.5 and 1 °C, depending on
region. By 2100, average annual temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 1 and 5
°C, depending on region and emissions scenario (high confidence).
• Warming will be greater in summer/autumn than in winter/spring (medium confidence).
• The thermal growing season will lengthen, but soil moisture levels in the summer and autumn are
expected to decrease (high confidence).
• For coastal UK, sea level will continue to rise.
Summers will continue to get hotter and drier…
• By 2040, average summer temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 0.5 and 2 °C,
depending on region. By 2100, average summer temperature for the UK will rise by between 1
and 6 °C, depending on region and emissions scenario (high confidence).
• By 2100, there will be up to 50% less precipitation in the summer months, depending on region
and emissions scenario (medium confidence).
• The number of days when buildings require cooling will increase (high confidence).
Winters will continue to get milder and wetter…
• By 2040, average winter temperature for the UK will rise by between 0.5 and 1 °C, depending on
region. By 2100, average winter temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 1 and 4 °C
depending on region and emissions scenario (high confidence).
• By 2100, there is expected to be up to 30% more precipitation in the winter months, depending on
region and emissions scenario (high confidence).
• Snowfall amounts will decrease across the UK (high confidence), and large parts of the country
will have long runs of winters without snow (medium confidence).
• The number of days when buildings require heating will decrease (high confidence).
Some weather extremes will become more common, others less common…
• The number of very hot summer days will increase. High temperatures similar to those
experienced in August 2003 or July 2006 (>3 °C above average) will become common by the end
of this century, even under the Low Emissions scenario (medium confidence).
• The number of very cold winter days is expected to decrease, and low temperatures like those
experienced in 1963 (>3 °C below av) will become highly uncommon by the end of this century.
• Heavier winter precipitation is expected to become more frequent (high confidence).
• Winter storms and mild, wet and windy winter weather will become more frequent (low
confidence).
15. 15
3. LCLIP FINDINGS
3.1 LOCAL CLIMATE IMPACTS PROFILE TOOL
The LCLIP approach should help local authorities to better understand the impacts that the weather
has on its operations by uncovering relationships between service areas and various types of
weather. For information about LCLIPs as a tool, see links – here & here.
Significant events are reviewed and the variables that affect services are examined, as well as
adaptation plans and responses.
In July 2008 UKCIP hosted an event on recent LCLIPs. Presentations here. County Councils that
have undertaken LCLIPs are Kent, Worcestershire, Derbyshire, Warwickshire, Lancashire, Dorset,
Devon and Hertfordshire. Fewer UK District Councils have carried these out – an example is
Aylesbury Vale DC - initial results.
An LCLIP study focuses on issues facing the local authority. Wider work, perhaps through Local
Strategic Partnerships, will be needed to support residential communities and businesses when
building their own adaptation programme. Ecosystems and biodiversity need attention, as nature
cannot adapt proactively, and this LCLIP supplies some relevant comment.
The first step in an LCLIP is to look at local media reports across the area and weather records for
the last 5 years. These are compiled into a database of the type, location and severity of weather
events affecting the District. They include ‘extreme’ events like gales, heat-waves, droughts, and of
course flooding. As well, climate trends are important, such as longer growing seasons, the altering
seasons and changing ‘typical weather’ each season.
The second step is to interview key Council informants asking service managers about impacts and
responses. Emails were sent out just before a request to interview. Issues were explored through
semi-structured interviews, investigating recent events using the format appended. This format was
distinct to that used in other LCLIPs, allowing discussions to strongly focus on weather relationships,
trends and variables. 20 interviews were carried out, each about one hour long.
Thirdly the researcher pulls together a report covering the findings and main issues to be addressed
and feeds back findings to support follow-on actions.
3.2 WEATHER EVENTS OBSERVED - 2003 TO 2008
The full data set of weather-related news is compiled in the annex as a Word table supplies
summarised media stories over the 5+ year record. The most frequent type of extreme weather is
gales and storms with 14 events over this period, with 2006 – early 2007 particularly active, at the
height of some of the warmest months in the UK long-term record.
Over this 14-month period, the UK experienced the hottest July, the hottest April, hottest autumn and
the hottest spring - and by a wide margin, the hottest single 12-month period. There were a high
number of storms in this period, often associated with localized flash flooding in late-summer period
often linked with breaking heat waves.
16. 16
Flooding is by far the most significant weather event in terms of damage to public and private assets,
civil concern and service delivery implications, with four widespread events on record, two of these
serious (2003 and 2007).
Serious events of snow and ice are marginal in the 5-year record. No significant events were
recorded by the media, and for Services, coping with severe winter weather has largely dropped off
the agenda.
Heat waves are infrequent in this short record, but if they recur on the scale of the 2003 event, would
greatly impact human health, particularly for the elderly, children and other vulnerable groups.
Impacts to infrastructure will include damage to buildings by tree and drought-related subsidence,
roads, leisure facilities, drainage systems and business closures. Health effects will include large
numbers of people suffering sunstroke, dehydration and (later) skin cancer.
Two significant droughts have occurred in 2003, that then ran on into the 2004 – 2006 event. Multiple
impacts resulted - and it is the case that if the 2004-2006 drought had run on into 2007 (beyond April
2007 – the hottest April since records began) then southern UK would have entered an
unprecedented crisis.
1. Rain and flood
Flooding has been the most frequent cause of incidents affecting council services. The OCC LCLIP
reported more than 40 incidents have been reported in Oxfordshire due to flooding over past 15
years, from 14 heavy flood periods, summer and winter. There have been more than 12 incidents of
summer flash flooding 1999- 2006 over the last six years.
In Vale of White Horse since early 2003, significant flooding has occurred 6 times in the 5-year
record. With flash flooding runoff rapidly occurs often within a couple of hours, making these
unpredictable.
Two major events occurred, with substantial river flooding (fluvial), in winter 2003, and very severe
and widespread floods in late July1
2007. Catchments filled in the west, while rainfall intensities
decreased towards the east of the District. Flooding problems were due to watercourses breaking out
of their banks and excess surface flows from the land and in smaller watercourses. This mix of river
and flash floods affected many towns and villages.
As well, the record includes many smaller cases of flash flooding (pluvial), sometimes associated with
**gales. In late-summer periods, flash floods are often linked with breaking heat waves. This was the
case after both the 2006 and 2003 heat waves.
While the summer 2007 floods cannot be attributed directly to climate change, it does provide an
indication of the scale and nature of the extreme weather events we may experience as a result.
1
A study from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology of Britain’s wet summer in 2007 confirms that the floods were a
singular event. The report, The summer 2007 floods in England and Wales − a hydrological appraisal, brings together
flood and meteorological data and breaks down the events leading to the flooding, for which no modern UK parallel
exists. As the event is inconsistent with models predicting drier summers, it does not support the notion that this
exceptional flooding was causally linked to climate change. Document here
17. 17
Table 2 – Categories used for Stories. Dates of major events & totals of each kind of event
Abbre-
viation
Category &
shading
Definition and explanation Dates + duration
Hyperlink to each story
Number
events
G / S Gale / Storm
/ lightning / +
flash floods
Strong, sometimes localised, winds (at least 50 up to 88
kph – Beaufort scale 7 to 9) that damage trees and
buildings. This severe weather may be accompanied by
lightning, and by rain or other precipitation capable of
causing flash flooding.
In the Beaufort scale, a storm is defined as a
disturbance with wind speeds greater than those of a
gale (from 89 up to 117 kph), so that in fact real ‘storms’
are very rare. Common use is not so restrictive and
associates ‘storms’ with gusty, heavy rain and thunder.
Gales and storms are usually significant once they lead
to significant travel disruption.
September 2003
March 2004
July 2004
August 2004
June 2005
July 2006
July 2006 – event two
October 2006
October 2006 – event two
December 2006
January 2007
January 2007 – event two
November 2007
March 2008
14
R / F Excess
sustained
Rainfall +
river / flash
Flooding
Heavy rainfall (often widespread, intense and
prolonged) that covers substantial areas, capable of
causing both river and flash flooding.
January 2003
November 2006 (minor event)
July 2007 are profiled here with a
hydrological analysis here.
June 2008
4
H / S Heatwave /
Excess Sun
A period of abnormally, uncomfortably hot, and usually
humid weather, during which high day and night-time
temperatures develop, almost always associated with
intense sunshine. Defined in the Oxfordshire PCT
2008 Heatwave Plan and Met Office in terms of
threshold temperatures - 16ºC overnight and 31ºC
daytime - for at least two consecutive days with one
intervening night, having significant effects on health.
“2003 Heatwave” – June to July
2003 has been profiled here.
“2006 Heatwave” – June to July
2006 has been profiled here.
2
I / S Ice / Snow /
Fog
Significant coverage over fog, ice and/or snow,
combined or singly, sufficient to cause travel delays.
February 2007
April 2008
October 2008
2
DT Drought Long periods of water deficit resulting in water scarcity.
These are usually a combination of meteorological
droughts due to direct rainfall deficiency; hydrological
droughts where accumulated shortfalls in runoff or
aquifer recharge are key; and agricultural droughts
where availability of soil water through the growing
season is critical. Usually associated with high pressure
or 'blocking highs' dominating the weather.
2003 Drought – ran from April to
October 2003 and profiled here.
2004 – 2006 Drought Relevant
profiles by CEH Wallingford can
be found here and here (for both
2003 and 2004-06)
2
AS Altered
seasons
Issues related to alterations to the typical dates of onset of the seasons, their length and
intensity. This may affect plant growing season, plant phenology, species behaviour, and the
ecological condition of habitats in the longer-term, particularly of species that are human
pests. These kinds of shifts are certainly ‘climatic’, as they are departures from long-term
averages, can be related to increased Central England Temperature and can very likely be
attributed to human influence on the climate system.
n/a
RRP Response,
recovery and
policy
Items relating to resilience and broader event-related issues, not the event as it is
happening. These maybe to do with pre-event prevention / preparedness; and with post-
event issues, related to quality if the emergency response, longer-term recovery after an
event. These stories are particularly important when they cover adaptation to these events
and the state of planning for mitigating disasters, and preventing the weather from having
so many negative impacts.
n/a
18. 18
2. Sun and heatwaves
Heat-waves have not occurred often over the last 5 years, but when they do the consequences are
many, human and health costs arising from heat stress are high. Heat-waves in July/August 2003
and in July 2006 caused diverse impacts across the District illustrated in media accounts. These
events are also firmly linked with a significant drought that occurred from 2003 and deepened in
intensity over 2005 and 2006, only concluding in late spring 2007.
The two heat waves were also associated with altered seasonality and changed growing seasons,
over the winter of 2003/05 and as well and very significantly, in the winter of 2006/07. For that period,
many records were broken.
It is projected that heat waves as experienced in the summers of 2003 and 2006 could become a
normal summer within 20-30 years. Impacts to infrastructure will include damage to buildings by tree
and drought-related subsidence, roads, leisure facilities, drainage systems and business closures.
Health effects on the community will include larger numbers of people suffering sunstroke,
dehydration and skin cancer. Anti-social behaviour, burglaries and assaults are likely to increase in
summer months. Bio-diversity impacts may include dried-up riverbeds, outbreaks of botulism and
algae, and bird and insect losses.
3. Drought
Two long dry spells affected the region between 2003 – 2005. The first began in October 2003. It is
unclear if in meteorological terms this drought ‘broke’ in 2004. A spate of media mentions were made
of increasing drought biting into District life in late 2004, with very significant concerns expressed in
late 2005.
The water restriction timeline began in April 2006 when Thames Water introduced a domestic
hosepipe and sprinkler ban, the first in 15 years. In mid-April 2006, Thames Water applied to the
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs for an order to ban non-essential water use.
In June 2006 a very wet May eased pressure on water supplies. Again, in August 2006, the county
received twice the normal average rainfall amount for July, staving off suggestions that an emergency
drought order should be imposed. By 18th
January 2007, by the time the ban was lifted, hundreds of
people across the county had been issued warnings.
The combination of drought with flooding on clay soils in Oxfordshire has caused incidences of
subsidence, which can have serious and costly consequences. This was poorly covered by the
media, except for some mention of the costs to OCC of road repairs. This issue only came to light
following publication of the OCC LCLIP.
Fires that were clearly related to dry weather or lightning have been rare and minor in scale.
4. Gales and storms
A few storm events pepper the record, with for example heavy winds in Sept 2003, May 2005, July
2006 and January 2007. These have caused some damage and loss of life, but would rate lower on
the scale of concern than flooding.
4. Ice and snow
Serious events of snow and ice are highly marginal in the 5 year record. No significant events were
recorded by the media.
19. 19
3.3 AWARENESS OF TRENDS IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Good local knowledge about the role of weather was evident with staff involved in team management
and operational work. The Vale Climate Change Strategy shows that service managers have begun
to consider the weather as a factor related to service planning.
However, confounding factors often may make it hard to ‘blame the impacts’ under discussion
directly to the weather. This report tries to unravel some of those links.
Weather awareness is not the same as climate concern. Some Council staff stated they had noticed
climate change, personally and professionally. Despite interest in the direction of climate change, the
overall observation is that staff attitudes don’t yet demonstrate deep concern about climate
adaptation – it is just another issue amongst many competing for busy people’s attention.
In carrying out the LCLIP research, a difficulty was the fading of informant’s memories of how a
specific event unfolded, and recalling just what were the impacts and responses. Many of the known
events that were picked up in the media trawl were not seen as 'extreme' by interviewees. The risk of
climate change is still abstract (it might get hotter and drier, we might have more extreme events).
This is consistent with sociology research on how people react to climate risks, that concludes that
people's response to risk has very little to do with the probability of something negative happening.
People may be worried by unlikely events (dying in an airline crash, victim of terrorism), and demand
major efforts to protect them from these, yet worry little about likely risks, such as being in a car
crash. Being informed about the probability of something happening often impacts little on behaviour.
Concern about meeting performance targets and potential reputation damage helps drive local
authority action for carbon mitigation. On the adaptation side, for the moment, accountability only
applies to how adequate were Council responses during weather emergencies.
Public understandings await development as the climate issue evolves, and has effects on local lives
in the future. Many community groups are unaware of flood and other weather related risks. As
climate change impacts worsen, adaptation may become a potential concern of citizens, and Council
teams may be held to account for the quality of VOWH ’s adaptation responses. If future responses
are inadequate, this could damage the council’s reputation.
As well, fading of memories makes the risk seem limited and an issue in the long-term. Climate
problems appear to develop slowly, like the remote effects of rising sea level. People do not process
hazards associated with slow, long-term processes, or with infrequent events at all well.
Perception of risk is tied to the immediacy or vividness of events, and whether those events are
personalized. On average, how likely they are to happen may not be that relevant. People's
willingness to respond to potential hazards depends more on whether or not they think other people
are responding, than on what the chance of the hazard affecting them is.
This is why NI 188 argues for local authorities to work within enduring partnerships, between experts
and practitioners, multiple stakeholders and across scales. This is essential for building adaptive
capacity over the time scales required by climate change.
26. 26
4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This LCLIP report should now provide enough evidence to approach senior management to decide
on adaptation activities.
4.1 SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES AND VULNERABILITIES
The following are the ten highest priority issues, selected using the consultant’s best judgement:
i) Propose to the LSP Board that it takes on a role in monitoring the cross-organisational actions
that the Flood Groups might require, to tackle problems that crop up during implementation.
ii) Share adaptation information with Vale LSP Board, including this LCLIP report.
iii) VOWH should engage private sector partners and businesses in a joint review of the
implications of climate scenarios for future business development. This will promote
involvement of local businesses in adaptation planning via those members of local Chambers
of Commerce that are keen to become more involved.
iv) Increased targets for green infrastructure across the council’s land portfolio could lead to new
plantings of larger numbers of urban shade trees using appropriate species and provenances.
v) Carry out a wider review of climate adaptation strategies used by community nature
conservation projects supported by the Council, as well as Council owned/controlled local
sites and their management. Information should be collected about preparedness of
biodiversity partner organisations for oncoming weather / climate impacts on biodiversity.
vi) Analysis of relationships between weather, seasonality and nuisance behaviour is
recommended. If relationships and risks are significant, management plans should be put in
place.
vii) Opportunities for local action during heatwaves should be explored, under the lead of
Oxfordshire PST. This would require VOWH approaching the PCT to assess whether a
support role can be created that matches VOWH ’s competencies.
viii) Deploy greater planning resources and social science expertise to enable comprehensive FAG
strategic and action planning. Develop the Flood Action Group programme so that the
lessons learnt can be shared with other Authorities facing similar problems.
ix) Move beyond current building practice and codes within VOWH planning and building control
to actively identify and help incorporate innovative home engineering solutions by individuals
and developers seeking approval of proposed projects.
x) Involve VOWH and LSP partners in wider climate change actions through Oxfordshire Climate
Change Partnership and the Climate South East Partnership. Collaborate county-wide
constructing a monitoring system to record events, log impacts and hold data on the weather
that caused them.
27. 27
4.2 CONCLUSIONS
1 Service coping. This LCLIP has not found evidence of weather events overwhelming VOWH
services. Except for the 2007 summer floods, highly damaging emergency events have not occurred
in the 5-year record. There were almost no cases were Council responses were overwhelmed,
VOWH reputation damaged or a great deal of extra man-power was needed. Few gaps and un-
addressed vulnerabilities were found during the LCLIP research. Vale of White Horse is a well-
buffered district, where we have been lucky that the kinds of weather events we have seen in recent
times have not been catastrophic, and were responded to within management abilities and current
resources. Much adaptation by services has already occurred, as part of good management and risk
assessment. Despite the robust coping systems in place, the risk of ‘extreme weather’ causing
overwhelming impacts to VOWH is apparent.
1 Costs. This study has not been able to demonstrate large costs to the Council from extreme
weather events. Reporting mechanisms do not cover weather as a costed variable, so some impacts
may stay hidden. It is likely that direct costs reported of weather events are limited – as shown for
example by minimal insurance claims for subsidence. Identified costs are not significant in
comparison with the overall VOWH budgets. It is appropriate that the costs of the impacts of weather
on services continue to be treated within operating budgets.
2 Reputation. It is often noted that concern about potential Council reputation damage is now a
driver of local authority action for carbon mitigation. On the adaptation side, for the moment,
accountability only applies to the adequacy of Council responses to weather emergencies. Public
understandings will mature as weather impacts are felt and climate change evolve, and affects local
livelihoods in the future. Some sectors of the community are not aware of flood and other weather
related risks.
As climate change impacts worsen, adaptation may become a potential concern of citizens, and
Council teams may be held to account for the quality of VOWH’s adaptation responses. Any lack of
guidance and advice to the public and District businesses, which contribute to future inadequate
responses, could damage the council’s reputation.
3 Staff understandings. Good local weather knowledge was evident with staff involved in
operational work, however most service managers have not usually considered the weather as a
factor that relates to service planning and delivery. Confounding factors often may make it hard to
‘blame the impacts’ under discussion directly to the weather. In carrying out the LCLIP research, a
real difficulty was the fading of informant’s memories of how a specific event unfolded, and recalling
just what were the impacts and responses.
Many of the known events that were picked up in the media trawl were not seen as 'extreme' by
interviewees. Some Council staff stated they had personally and professionally ‘noticed’ climate
change. Despite some interest in the effects and direction of climate change, the overall observation
is that staff attitudes do not yet demonstrate of deep concern about climate issues. Almost all
interviewees are just witnessing changed weather patterns, rather than understanding causes and
anticipating climate change impacts.
4 Flooding issue. The 2007 flood led to a comprehensive assessment of VOWH DC’s responses
within those of the team of agencies that had to attend to the emergency. Given the scale of the
event, responses were very good, according to the internal review and this assessment. VOWH’s
Flood Management Strategy is well-developed, for example clearly laying out the sliding scale of
actions that should be enforced when dealing with recalcitrant riparian landowners who won’t
maintain their watercourses.
28. 28
5 Flood Action Groups. The public is aware that resources are limited for VOWH to solve all
drainage problems. This is a good reason for VOWH to invest resources to develop a robust network
of Flood Action Groups across the District. Considerable effort has been ongoing by VOWH to build
local resilience to flooding through exemplary work to foster and support Flood Action Groups. Flood
Action Groups have a role when no large structured engineering options are available to reduce
flood risk, and local flood risk can improve through channel maintenance and small-scale measures.
This correctly makes groups at Parish-level responsible for key tasks like detecting poorly
maintained waterways, developing plans, seeking funding and assistance from other agencies and
engaging communities. This work appears to be generating examples of good practice, making
VOWH compare very well with other District Councils in Oxfordshire in its advanced engagement
with the issue.
6 Engineering Services Capacity. The scale of the work needed to manage the Vale’s secondary
drainage is beyond VOWH’s resources. Under Commercial Services, VOWH’s drainage inspection
and engineering team has an excessive work load, given staff and resources, to meet its
responsibilities, for example mapping the trouble spots that have been identified in successive flood
incidents across the District. Under current resource limitations, this is unlikely to be rectified.
7 Risk management. The risk of repeated extreme weather events is gradually growing. Return
periods for extreme events are shortening as the CET heating trend implies that average conditions
are changing. Likelihood and magnitudes of future events have been projected by UKCIP and
others. A robust statement is that events of all kinds, except cold-related ones, are likely to become
progressively much more serious than today. We must anticipate growing impacts on the community
and other stakeholders, regardless of the limited financial implications of extreme weather to date for
VOWH.
8 Attention to flooding. Compared with other weather events, flooding takes up the lion’s share of
Council attention and resources. While the summer 2007 floods cannot be attributed directly to
climate change, it does indicate the scale and nature of the extreme weather events we may
experience. While this focus on flooding is not misapplied, it may require some review. Other types
of events could require effort on a similar scale, particularly heat waves and droughts.
9 Two droughts in the record were associated with altered seasonality (very pronounced over the
winters of 2003/04 and 2006/07) and heatwaves (2003 + 2006). Drought is something of a forgotten
issue – in spite of recent events and the consistency with which droughts appear in models of
southern England’s future climate. However, compared with flooding, local authorities have few
statutory obligations for coping with these effects.
10 Grass-cutting service operation is becoming over-stretched. Altering seasonality is causing a
direct impact on the Council, with Landscape Services in late 2008 emerging from what was ‘an
impossible workload’, due to copious grass growth, that could not be cut during the very wet summer
of 2008. This had knock-on effects for the Council’s contractor, unable to carry out other landscape
maintenance obligations.
The active grass-growing season is now at least 6 weeks longer than it was 20 years ago. This is
due to the extending season of grass growth due to recent wetter summer months, and milder
temperatures during the winter period associated with climate change. The wetter summer periods
over 2007 and 2008 have impacted on the grass cutting timetables of the Council.
29. 29
11 The tree stock suffers routine levels of damage from storms, while subsidence due to floods or
droughts is uncommon and not considered to be an issue resulting in claims. For example the 2-3
storms per year that have little affected the District, beyond causing travel disruption, so they carry
few implications for VOWH DC. Even when Storm Kyrill struck the area in January 2007, almost no
impacts were reported in the media.
12 Except for flood warnings, almost no monitoring of weather variables occurs. Little in the way of
quantitative data is available to deepen understandings of the degree of the impacts. Weather-
related staff time and financial costs are not separately identified and monitored. No logging
mechanism is planned nor in place that would enable the monitoring of event variables.
13 The effects of weather events and of climate trends on the Council’s strategic goals have begun
to be assessed. On a time scale of one to two decades, Council services are vulnerable to more and
larger-scale weather events. Business continuity plans do not yet cover weather risks, may be
incomplete. While VOWH service areas exposed to weather impacts have started to adapt, given the
unknown future evolution of weather impacts, we argue for a proactive approach to strategically
manage the impacts of future weather.
4.3 RECOMMENDATIONS
1 There is a growing risk of repeated extreme weather events. Return periods for extreme events
and average conditions are changing. Likelihood and magnitudes of future events can only be
projected, but further into the future, are likely to be much more serious than today. We must
anticipate growing impacts on the community and other stakeholders, regardless of the limited
financial implications of extreme weather to date.
2 Recommend that follow-up sessions be carried out with operational managers, using this report
to confirm findings and extend understandings of weather impacts, using risk management as a
suitable vehicle. Risk management sessions should develop action plans for LCLIP-style reporting,
that monitors weather and considers the changing climate.
3 Climate change adaptation in VOWH should go beyond a managerial approach, and encompass
climate change education of the staff base. With some staff awareness-raising, attitudes could build-
up to become a driver for delivering adaptation. Extreme weather should be included as a corporate
risk. Service-level adjustments to the authority’s risk register should explain how services are
currently affected - and will be affected in the future - and identify adaptation options that plug
particular vulnerabilities.
4 Oxfordshire Climate Change Partnership and the Climate South East Partnership can play a
useful role in building capacity. As VOWH’s climate strategy suggests, VOWH should participate
itself, and as well encourage LSP partners to become involved, by themselves participating in
meetings and actions. Joint acting on significant issues would encourage more distributed
involvement. This will aid VOWH sustain a diversity of partner interests in countywide community
actions that integrate mitigation and adaptation.
5 Collaborate county-wide constructing a monitoring system to record events, log impacts and hold
data on the weather that caused them. This would help in decision-making in two ways:
•••• As thresholds of a given variable are crossed at the onset of extreme weather, responses would
come into play to mitigate impacts through early warning, as for river flooding;
•••• More widely, monitoring the impacts of weather as a factor in service delivery causing extra
costs and increased demands.
30. 30
However, beyond flooding, exactly how the system would work, what variables and impacts should
be tracked, by whom and why, needs joint research.
6 The approaches used by VOWH with other agencies to stimulate local efforts by Flood Action
Groups should be shared with neighbouring authorities, where similar efforts are at earlier stages
(such as SODC). However, first of all the need is to identify the lessons of the work underway – what
exactly are the best practices that support partnership working, increase awareness and enable
working together? This requires some social science research.
7 Taking the opportunity to share good practice will also boost horizontal contacts between Groups
in various stages of development and promote their regional integration, providing benefits for the
groups in the Vale. Taking on leadership in this area could also provide reputation gains for VOWH.
8 Assess the budgetary requirements of increased manpower across long wet grass growing
period (from early April through to November under current climate change). There is a need to
revise leaf-clearing and grass maintenance schedules and resources in line with the changing length
of the seasons. A bid to increase the Landscape Services budget by approx. £ 40 - 60,000 per year
may be required.
9 The new LEADER programme based at SODC could provide opportunities to work on joint
adaptation projects with local stakeholders, members of the LSP or of Chambers of Commerce.
10 Further police analysis of the relationships that exist between heat waves and nuisance
behaviour is recommended.
14 Opportunities for collaborating with Oxfordshire PCT’s heat wave Plan could be explored as a
breakthrough project for joint work with the LSP. With partners, VOWH could approach the PCT to
assess whether a support role can be created that matches LSP partners and VOWH ’s
competencies, to jointly cope in the aftermath of a heatwave.
15 Learn from other local authorities’ good practice, such as the high levels of business engagement
in climate adaptation activities achieved by Kent County Council. Alongside Oxfordshire County
Council and neighbouring District Councils, VOWH could engage private sector partners and
businesses in a joint review of the implications of climate scenarios for future business development.
31. 31
APPENDICES
APPENDIX 1: OXFORDSHIRE’S CLIMATE WITHIN GLOBAL CHANGE
This section draws on a variety of sources for findings and figures about Oxfordshire’s climate,
setting climate information in the UK spatial context, then within the global setting
1.1 GLOBAL CHANGE
Despite some outlier contrarian opinion, the consensus (see here / here) around climate change
science is robust, expressed as “unequivocal” in the 2007 assessment report by the UN
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC2
). The Working Group examining the
Physical Science in the Summary for Policy Makers stated:
• Changes in abundance of greenhouse gases3
(GHGs), aerosols, solar radiation and land
properties, have significantly altered the climate system’s energy balance.
• GHG concentrations far exceed pre-industrial values, with current concentrations of CO2
much higher than the natural range over the last 650,000 years, and probably higher than at
any time in the last 20 million years. Carbon emissions (3% per year) and atmospheric
concentrations (2.2 ppm / year) are growing faster than ever recorded.
• Global land and ocean temperatures have already increased by 0.8 O
C causing sea levels to
rise and worldwide ice melting - warming is "unequivocal.
• It is at least 90% certain that human emissions of greenhouse gases, rather than natural
variations, are responsible for global warming over the past 50 years.
• Improved computer modelling has increased confidence in climate projections that
temperature rises, sea level increases and ice melting will continue.
There is no significant dispute within the expert community as to the reality or causes of
manmade global warming. Oreskes stated ‘scientists publishing in the peer-reviewed literature
agree with IPCC…. and public statements of their professional societies. Politicians,
economists, journalists, and others may have the impression of confusion, disagreement, or
discord among climate scientists, but that impression is incorrect’.
We have reached the end of the wide science debate when it had been uncertain that
significant climate change is occurring, is largely caused by humanity and that natural variations
are complementary, not primary, causes. The human enterprise is clearly performing a massive
shift in the distribution of carbon that has been stored over hundreds of millions of years in the
crust of the earth, moving part of that material - in just a century or so - back into the
atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane.
The ‘mitigation agenda’ addresses the causes of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas
emissions into the atmosphere. A target has been set by the EU to limit global warming to 2˚
Celsius, a level that is believed does not lead to dangerous climate change, and was thought to
correspond to a CO2 level of 450 ppmv (parts per million by volume).
2
180 governments, that make up the IPCC, approved IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The IPCC is formally a group of
governments (not one of scientists) which commissions assessments every 6 years. These are prepared through the efforts of
hundreds of scientists, actively involved in state-of-the-art research, to provide a comprehensive view of the current
understanding of climate science and change.
3
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is at its highest concentration probably in the last twenty million years, at 387 parts per
million (ppm). Rising at an increasing rate over 2 ppm/yr, compared to 1970-2000 at 1.5 ppm. CO2 levels have increased by 30
ppm in the last 20 years. Over the last million years, an increase of 30 ppm has never taken less than 1000 years. Human
activity is pushing the climate system at rates unprecedented in history.
32. 32
However, carbon emissions growth rate has increased to 3% per year over 2000 - 2007, due to
trends involving both accelerating and more carbon-intensive global economic growth; and the
weakening of some of the Earth’s carbon sinks. CO2 emissions are above the worst-case IPCC
scenarios. A peer-reviewed Royal Society paper from the Tyndall Centre states:
It is increasingly unlikely that an early and explicit global climate change agreement, or
collective ad hoc national mitigation policies, will deliver the urgent and dramatic reversal in
emission trends necessary for stabilization at 450 ppmv CO2-e. Similarly, the
mainstream...agenda is far removed from the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550
ppmv CO2-e. Given the reluctance, at virtually all levels, to openly engage with the
unprecedented scale of both current emissions and their associated growth rates, even an
optimistic interpretation of the current framing of climate change implies that stabilization much
below 650 ppmv CO2-e is improbable.
...the latest scientific understanding of climate change, allied with current emission trends and a
commitment to ‘limiting average global temperature increases to below 4C above pre-industrial
levels, demands a radical reframing of both the climate change agenda, and the economic
characterization of contemporary society. Only massive emission reductions, if carried out
globally to an unprecedented extent, will stave off future irreversible, chaotic and harmful
climate change.
The Tyndall Centre estimates that global emissions need to peak by 2015, then fall by 6 - 8% a
year between 2020 and 2040, leading to full decarbonisation soon after 2050. This is hugely
ambitious. Effective mitigation will continue to be very difficult.
As well, there is a considerable time lag in the Earth’s response to CO2 already added into the
atmosphere, meaning we are committed to much more warming than that has occurred so far.
Current GHG concentrations commit the Earth to a further 0.6 degrees warming, that will
certainly take place whatever humanity does.
The lag in warming response means it would take at least 30 years before concerted global
mitigation action, if successful, could result in a more stable global climate. Even if deep cuts in
emissions were achieved through strenuous mitigation, Earth systems will progressively
overcome inertia in their response, particularly as oceans warm further, and feedbacks generate
further warming or more GHG emissions. This means that generations of humanity will be under
the ongoing obligation to adapt to progressively changing climates.
However, this is not the full picture. Observers now note that the IPCC consensus may
underestimate the problem. Various updates (see WWF) of climate impacts studies have found
accelerating negative trends in global carbon balances, carbon sinks, ecosystem integrity and
ice cover4
.
Of particular alarm are recent trends in summer Arctic Ocean sea ice that were greatly
underestimated in IPCC projections. An increasingly accepted view is that the Earth’s systems
are more sensitive to current and future climate forcing from greenhouse agents than was
assumed, even as late as 2007.
The 2007 IPCC consensus did not take into account ‘tipping elements’ in Earth systems
involving complex feedbacks, especially carbon-cycle forcing through GHG releases from
Siberian thawing, northern forest dieback due to fire and pests and Amazon drying.
4
Climate Code Red Report - The case for a sustainability emergency (Spratt, Sutton, FoE) responds to the pressure to soft-
pedal on climate change, takes proper stock of the science and gives "the politics of the possible" its due. They argue that
consensus science under-estimates our situation’s seriousness and a 'planetary emergency' declared. Download.
33. 33
A particular worry is that rapid dynamic changes of Greenland ice sheets are not yet
understood, creating great uncertainty in estimates of likely sea level rises. The effects of smoke
and aerosols released by humans, creating ‘global dimming’, causes uncertainty. The
implication of policies to reduce air pollution is that these may cause unmasking of aerosol
cooling effects, and this could release significant committed warming.
These updated insights highlight the risks involved in accepting even 2°C of global warming, as
many of the impacts are happening earlier, and at lower temperature increases, than predicted.
A serious shortcoming in the IPCC’s work is the absence of a risk management approach that
addresses these low-probability events with catastrophic consequences.
Impacts and feedbacks that accelerate climate change are likely to be triggered within the 2
degree range. This is confirmed by studies of past climate showing safe carbon limits would
require humanity to bring down CO2 concentrations to below 350 ppm, particularly to restore
Arctic ice cover. The Government’s Committee on Climate Change only partly considered these
issues when setting the target to reduce UK carbon emissions by 80% by 2050.
1.2 OXFORDSHIRE’S CLIMATE
The following table sets out selected Met Office/UKCIP climate variables and indices used to
assess climate trends, mostly derived from the daily or monthly temperature/precipitation data.
Climate variable Definition
Heating Degree Days ∑(15.5 – daily mean temperature) with T mean < 15.5 °C.
Cooling Degree Days ∑(daily mean temperature - 22) for Tmean > 22 °C.
Extreme temperature range Annual maximum temperature minus annual minimum temperature
Growing season length
Period bounded by daily mean temperature > 5 °C for > 5 consecutive
days - and - daily mean temperature < 5 °C for > 5 consecutive days
(after 1 July)
Summer 'heatwave'
duration
Sum of days with daily max. T > 3 °C above 1961-90 daily for ≥5
consecutive days
Consecutive dry days Longest spell of consecutive days with precipitation <= 0.2 mm during
the year
Greatest 5-day
precipitation
Greatest total precipitation amount (mm) for 5 consecutive days during
the year
Rainfall Intensity Total precipitation on days with ≥1 mm divided by count of days with
≥1mm
According to the UK Meteorological Office’s climatology reporting system, Vale of White Horse
falls within the England South-East and Central South standard area. Oxfordshire has a
Maritime Temperate climate ("Cfb" in the Köppen classification).
Precipitation, mostly from Atlantic weather systems is fairly uniform through the year. The lowest
temperature recorded in Oxford was -16.6 °C in January 1982; the highest recorded in Oxford
was 35.6 °C during the 2003 European heat wave.
34. 34
Met Office data for Oxford is presented in the following table:
Max temp Min temp
Days of
air frost
Sunshine Rainfall
Rainfall days
> = 1mm
Month °C °C days hours mm days
Jan 7.2 1.9 8.8 58.0 57.5 11.5
Feb 7.6 1.7 8.5 72.0 42.6 9.2
Mar 10.3 3.4 4.0 107.9 50.0 10.5
Apr 12.8 4.7 2.1 150.0 46.2 8.7
May 16.5 7.5 0.2 191.9 53.9 9.1
Jun 19.5 10.5 0.0 187.8 54.5 8.7
Jul 22.3 12.8 0.0 205.5 38.2 6.7
Aug 21.9 12.6 0.0 193.8 54.4 7.8
Sep 18.6 10.5 0.0 138.6 58.9 9.1
Oct 14.4 7.4 0.7 108.2 61.8 10.6
Nov 10.1 4.3 4.5 72.0 59.4 10.1
Dec 8.0 2.8 7.3 51.8 64.7 10.9
1971 - 2000 mean 14.1 6.7 36.1 1537.4 642.0 112.9
1961- 1990 mean 13.8 6.4 40.7 1508.6 632.1 112.8
Figure 1: Climate variables at the Oxford meteorological station 1971-2000. Means for 1961-1990 also shown.
Oxford’s weather is reported by the Radcliffe Weather Station, which supplies meteorological data
for twelve-month periods with yearly totals and means. Radcliffe analysis of the recent climate of
England SE and Central South region (inc. Oxfordshire) contains these average:
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
Average high °C 6.8 7.4 10.1 13.0 16.7 19.8 21.7 21.2 18.5 14.2 9.8 7.4 13.9
Average low °C
1.4 1.4 2.5 4.3 7.2 10.2 12.2 11.9 9.8 6.8 3.8 2.1 6.1
Precipitation mm
52.6 41.0 41.1 43.9 50.6 53.3 59.5 58.3 60.3 65.3 61.8 55.8 643.5
Figure 2: Mean Oxford weather for 1881 - 2004. Source: Radcliffe Meteorological Station 2008
Available Radcliffe Station reports:
Weather at Oxford - Annual Report 2006; Weather at Oxford - Annual Report 2005
Weather at Oxford - Annual Report 2004; Weather at Oxford - Annual Report 2003.
35. 35
Headlines from the Radcliffe temperature time series are:
• 20th-century temperatures were generally higher than those of the 19th, partly because of
‘heat island’ effect due to urban development over open spaces.
• The Radcliffe temperature time series confirms the post-1996 decade as the warmest on
record by a considerable margin.
• Increased temperatures lead to concerns that greater evaporation may affect water
availability.
Figure 3: Mean annual air
temperature - 1815 to 2006 at
Radcliffe Meteorological Station
Setting Oxfordshire within the Central England Temperature record
A key UK climate reference is Central England Temperature (CET). Running from 1772 this is
the world’s longest temperature record and is perhaps the most representative measure of the
surface climate of the UK. It is well correlated with land temperatures over the entire Northern
Hemisphere. Recorded monthly temperatures, adjusted for urban warming, represent a
triangular area enclosed by Lancashire, London and Bristol.
Figure 4 shows annual anomalies relative to the 1961-1990 average The red line is equivalent
to a 10-year running mean. After some 20th century warming between the 1920 - 40s, and a
cooling during the 1970 - 80s, CET has been exceptionally warm in the period from 1990. To
date CET has increased by about one degree Celsius.
Figure 4: Mean Central England Temperature anomalies, 1772-2008. Source: Hadley Centre
36. 36
Trends in temperatures since the mid-17th century show that temperatures were lower than the
long-term average during the period roughly 1650-1700 and then rose sharply in the early
1700s. During the 18th
/19th centuries, a cool period coincided with snowy winters and generally
cool summers. From 1910, temperatures increased slightly until about 1950, when they
flattened before a sharp rising trend began in 1975.
Figure 5 shows the warmest years in the UK, calculated from CET (from UKCIP). This dataset
gives the 12 warmest years since 1659, up to 2007, as:
Rank Years Difference (ºC) in mean temp. 1961 to 1990
1st
2006 +1.30
2nd
/ 3rd
1990 / 1999 +1.16
4th
1949 +1.15
5th
2002 +1.13
6th
1997 +1.06
7th
1995 / +1.05
8 / 9th
2003 / 1989 +1.03
10 / 11 / 12th
1959 / 2004 / 2007 +1.01
9 of the 12 warmest CET years since 1659 have occurred since 1990, and the 1990s were
exceptionally warm in central England historically, 0.6°C warmer than 1961 – ’90.
2006 was a year that broke many records. The annual mean CET of 10.8 °C in 2006 was
1.35°C above the 1961-90 average, the warmest temperature for 348 years. 12-month rolling
averages show that very warm individual months made April 2006 through April 2007 the
warmest 12-month period on record. May to September 2006 was warmer than any equivalent
period. July 2006 was the warmest month ever with a temperature of 19.7 °C.
Appraisal of this trend show it to be statistically significant, concluding that the warming in annual-
mean CET of 1.0°C since 1950 cannot be explained by natural climate variations, and is
consistent with forcing due to increasing GHGs and aerosols.
How warm was 2008?
It is important to mention that climate is under the influence of natural variability as well as the
greenhouse effect. Policy makers should understand that even a short-term cooling over a few
years or seasons does not mean the consensus about human-driven warming is flawed (see).
The weather will be warmer or cooler than average in particular places and times without
affecting the over-all warming trend. In January 2008 the Met Office predicted that 2008 would
be a little cooler than earlier years in the 21st
C, but would still be one of the 10 warmest years.
This prediction proved correct.
2008 would have been considered warm as recently as the 1970s, and ‘a scorcher’ for our
Victorian ancestors. Today we have come to consider warmer weather usual, so while January
2008 did seem particularly cold, that was compared to January 2007, the warmest January on
record (due to the warming from El Niño). Data shows that, though 2008 UK weather was
influenced by La Niña (the cold phase of the El Niño oscillation), 2008 was still an exceptional
year, which would be 50 times less likely to be as warm without human influence. 2008 shows
how weather varies year-to-year under ongoing climate change.
37. 37
Setting Oxfordshire within recent UK temperature trends
Analysis by the Met Office examined spatial trends in UK climate since 1914 (Met Office). This
noted increases in mean monthly temperature over the whole of the UK. This occurred in two
main periods of warming (1914-1950 and 1970 onwards), with the most rapid warming
occurring since 1985. Mean temperatures increased, both in summer and winter, when the
1991-2004 average is compared with the 1961-1990 average (UKCIP02 baseline) .
Figure 6. Mean temperature
change °C from the 1961-
1990 average compared to
the summer and winter
1991-2004 averages
Daily maximum temperatures increased by more in the winter, while daily minimum
temperatures have increased by more in the summer and annually. The strongest increases in
mean monthly temperature have been in SE England, Midlands and East Anglia.
Oxfordshire within recent UK precipitation trends
The Radcliffe weather record identifies these local precipitation headlines:
• Recent Oxford rainfall patterns show large deviations from long-term averages. Dry spells
were registered in the summer of 1995, 1996-97 2003 and 2004 to 2006. Droughts of the
1780s and early 1800s were more extreme than those of today. From 1980 to 1995 the
winter rainfall totals were 20% above the summer rainfall.
• Rainfall deficits and exceptional temperatures have created periods of high evaporative
demand. Over the past decade, potential evaporation losses have been persistently above
average representing water losses from drainage basins.
Figure 7: mean annual precipitation (mm) from 1767 to date - Radcliffe Meteorological Station
38. 38
Met Office analysis shows that UK’s winters are getting wetter, with more precipitation
concentrated in days of heavy rainfall. Despite a high degree of variability, there has been a
decrease in summer precipitation across the UK by between 10 and 40% since 1961. There has
been a marked increase in winter precipitation in all regions.
Figure 8. Mean precipitation
change (%) from the 1961-1990
average to the 1991-2004
average for Summer (JJA) and
Winter (DJF).
Figure 9 shows the trend of increasing contribution of heavy rainfall events in winter. Maraun et
al noted that rainfall days with more than 10mm of rain (“heavy rain days”) increased greatly in
winters.
