Snow blanketed Great Britain on January 7, 2010, as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite passed overhead and captured this image. Snow covers most of England, from the east to the west coast. (The large image shows snow cover over the entire island of Great Britain.) The cities of Manchester, Birmingham, and London form ghostly gray shapes against the white land surface. Immediately east of London, clouds swirl over the island, casting blue-gray shadows toward the north.
Talk down through why Mitigation is a global effort, but adaptation has to be local Causes of climate change interrelated, but no dependence on others re. Adaptation UNFCC mechanisms and Kyoto Treaties – no binding framework for adaptation, support for developing countries Central Government in control of major impacts, but doesn’t have responsibility for impacts at a local level, e.g. schools, older people etc.
Outline the process The coalition’s programme for Government hasn’t really changed here, or at local level – given nature of the agenda, it was happening at the local level anyway
Defra’s Current Thinking on North East Impacts. Some of these will be relevant to us, but others are not (e.g. increased flood damage: Agricultural Land). Will be reflected in the Devolved Administration reports which will be produced as part of the CCRA process This means there’ll be a need to link up to national on some, and take the lead on others. NI188 retained to drive this. So what do these mean for us?
Some examples of climate change impacts on services produced by UKCIP (explain who they are) Fairly old now (2003), but ideas still sound, and using as a starting point for our own risk assessment process
In terms of what’s going on at a Local Level, co-ordinating an effective local adaptation response requires us to try and address some really big questions: Who needs to be involved? Which partners do we need? How vulnerable are we to our current weather and climate? What will the future climate of Newcastle look like? How vulnerable to it will we be? What will the demand be on our services? What options are there to adapt? What will it cost? What level of risk are we prepared to accept? To give you an idea of how big some of these questions are, we’ll now delve into the work that’s going on locally
Workstream set out in Climate Change Strategy Underpins both partnership agenda and also council agenda Emphasise partnership co-operation Plans go some way to facilitating us to adapt
In order to encourage partnership working, and to help understand the landscape of those with a role to play in the Adaptation Agenda, the climate change partnership formed an adaptation subgroup to develop [CHECK TERMS OF REFERENCE] Draws on a wide range of partners Representative of those we think have a key role Started a number of pieces of work:
First, This diagram attempts to begin the mapping of all the relevant bodies involved in the Adaptation Agenda.
Second piece of work, the LCLIP Explain the concept Given us Key dates, some headline vulnerabilities, and specific weather patterns that can be linked to projected climate future work – Envirocall etc, along with future partners? Other pieces of work going on to understand and manage climate impacts
Emphasise that there is more work to do, and areas that we haven’t even started to look at Can work with others here building this understanding is only part of the picture, also need to understand the future environment
To answer the question, UKCIP, Defra and the Met Office produced UKCP09 Same as used at the Global level Designed to meet a range of needs, from broad climate to detailed weather Gives a range of economic, social and environmental development scenarios
Shows a bit more detail
Science as a best guess Others already planning on this – we are not alone Some variables not included – e.g. Urban Heat Island
Next step is a risk assessment Objectivity in risks is key Using The projections to understand potential future climates in Newcastle combined with the evidence of our base-lining in the LCLIP, will help us answer a number of the questions such as: What demands are we likely to face as a result of a change climate, and how vulnerable are we as organisations to that climate Evidence will always get better, but it’s now the right time to start getting services prepared for the need to adapt.
Mentioned earlier that UKCIP was guiding our initial thinking. Sample of this here – full version in briefing note
Outline the role of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. Discusses the effects of Global Warming on the Economy It proposes that one percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) per annum is required to be invested in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change, and that failure to do so could risk global GDP being up to twenty percent lower than it otherwise might be Since been built on, including report released last week by the Engineering the Future Group which suggests resilience of infrastructure will affect investment decisions Tools available to help us assess these costs once the risks identified – e.g. UKCIP Costing, but a long way to go yet.
Outline that climate adaptation examples exist already, but to our current climate Photos show Ouseburn – Allotment bridge replacement
Ask for questions
Climate Change Adaptation in Newcastle
Climate Adaptation Adrian Mcloughlin Policy and Research x25098 Adrian.Mcloughlin @newcastle.gov.uk Kit England Strategy, Planning and Performance x25098 [email_address]
<ul><li>Mitigation is global, adaptation is local </li></ul>
Central Government Agenda UKCP09 (projections) 2009 Report on economics of adaptation options: 2012 Climate Change Act 2008 requires Climate Change Risk Assessment by Jan 2012. Act requires that this is then the evidence base for a National Adaptation Programme.
North East Tier 2 Impacts Whilst some relevant to us, others not so much of a problem Therefore also need a local approach Statutory Driver of NI188 removed, but locally retained
Who needs to be involved? Which partners do we need? How vulnerable are we to our current weather and climate? What will the future Climate of Newcastle look like? How vulnerable will we be in future? What will the demand be on our services? What will it cost? What level of risk are we prepared to accept? What are the options to adapt? An effective local Adaptation response
Delivery Plans Ongoing Consider protecting and enhancing natural heat sinks including green areas (through Green Infrastructure Strategy) Develop design guidance to, promote soft landscaping and trees , promote appropriate overshadowing and shelter and promote use of green roofs Investigate potential implications of the ‘heat island effect’ October 2010 Ensure that adaptation is considered as an issue in service planning within Newcastle City Council Ongoing Produce resources on adaptation to help the authority become familiar with the issue and to begin to consider its impacts on day to day service provision Raise overall awareness of the adaptation agenda Ongoing Evaluate emerging tools and research on Climate Change adaptation for use in a Local Authority context to facilitate more effective use of resources; October 2010 Produce a roadmap for enabling the council to have a solid understanding of likely climatic impacts, and enabling the authority to plan to adapt accordingly. May 2011 Train officers in the use of the UK Climate Impact Profiles - will begin to help officers understand the particular issues Skills Development May 2011 Continue production of a local climate impacts profile (LCLIP). The LCLIP will highlight service impacts from weather events, and issues important to residents Evidence Base May 2011 Establish an internal group to co-ordinate the Council’s own adaptation programme – This will seek to identify gaps in knowledge and find efficiencies and overlaps in providing information Develop and implement a risk assessment of key services Internal Risk Based approach Ongoing Co-ordinate an adaptation sub-group of the Newcastle Partnership Partnership cooperation TARGET DATE CURRENT INITIATIVE / ACTIONS REQUIRED THEME / PROGRAMME
Newcastle City Council Local Resilience Forum Newcastle PCT <ul><li>Service and Business Continuity Plans </li></ul><ul><li>Housing Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Risk Register </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Flood Risk Assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Surface Water Management Plan </li></ul><ul><li>Local Climate Impacts Profile </li></ul><ul><li>Spatial Planning </li></ul>DeFRA Other Central Government Departments Community Risk Register Nexus (ITA) <ul><li>Adapting to Climate Change Programme </li></ul><ul><li>UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) </li></ul><ul><li>Departmental Adaptation Plan </li></ul>Committee on Climate Change Adaptation Sub-committee Nationa l Your Homes Newcastle Local Regional ClimateNE – Regional Climate Change Partnership Newcastle University Northumbria University Environment Agency Health Protection Agency <ul><li>Departmental Adaptation Plans </li></ul><ul><li>CCRA and supplementary reports </li></ul>Gateshead North East Ambulance Service <ul><li>Local Development Framework </li></ul>How does it all fit together? Newcastle Partnership <ul><li>Sustainable Community Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Local Statement of Priorities </li></ul><ul><li>Citywide Climate Change Strategy </li></ul>
How vulnerable are we to our current climate? <ul><li>A number of pieces of work undertaken to help us understand this: </li></ul><ul><li>Local Climate Impacts Profile </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Flood Risk Assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Surface Water Management Plan </li></ul>
Ariel Thermal Photography showing potential urban heat island effect Could be attributed to other causes e.g. heat leakage from Buildings Ties for working with London
What will the future climate of Newcastle look like? Nationally developed climate modelling tool Web-based Range of resources, including key findings, maps and graphs for the region, and weather generator Can also generate your own information to suit your needs Derived from IPCC modelled scenarios Constrained by historic weather data Provides 3 timescales (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) Also provides 3 scenarios (Low, Medium and High) For each, a range of modelled weather characteristics Worth being aware of dangers of modelling!
UKCP09 - Variables Temperature Precipitation Air Pressure, Clouds and Humidity Weather Generator 2020s Matrix of variables considered in UKCP09 2050s 2080s Low Medium High Probabilities 10% 50% 90% Timescales IPCC Modelled - Emissions scenarios
Some of the issues <ul><li>Projection and modelling inherently uncertain </li></ul><ul><li>However ‘best evidence we have at present’ </li></ul><ul><li>We know what we don’t know </li></ul>
How vulnerable will we be? <ul><li>Next steps to risk-assess our services </li></ul><ul><li>Allow comparable risks score across services - prioritisation </li></ul><ul><li>Aligned to National Risk Assessment Methodology, and Council’s Strategic Risk Approach </li></ul>
What will it cost? <ul><li>Not only economic, but social and environmental </li></ul><ul><li>Tools to cost this are there to support </li></ul>Stern Report (2008) Cost of acting now will be less than acting later Global Mean Temperature Costs of climate change Total cost of climate change, after adaptation Net benefit of adaptation Residual climate change damage Gross benefit of adaptation Cost of adaptation + residual climate change damage Cost of climate change without adaptation
Some of our own <ul><li>Retention Tanks in Schools </li></ul><ul><li>Permeable pavements pilot in Fawdon </li></ul><ul><li>Grills in Culverts to prevent blockages </li></ul>