The document summarizes Dr. Anthony Horton's presentation on the potential implications of Australia's commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030 for the Paris 2015 climate agreement. The commitment has received criticism for being one of the weaker ones among developed countries and for not doing enough to limit global warming to 2°C. This could negatively impact Australian trade and investment by international businesses increasingly choosing to work with countries that have stronger climate policies and lower emissions.

1. What are the potential implications of
Australia’s Paris 2015 commitment?
Dr Anthony Horton The Climate Change Guy
Wednesday 19 August 2015
A presentation to The Rotary Club of Cambridge

2. Outline
• What is Paris 2015?
• What is the Australian Government’s commitment for Paris
2015?
• How does it compare to that of other Governments?
• What feedback has been received on the Government’s
commitment?
• What are the potential investment/trade implications?
http://www.theclimatechangeguy.com.au

3. What is Paris 2015?
• The Paris conference is the 21st session of the Conference of
Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (COP21) to date
• It will be held from November 30 to December 11
• The aim is to reach a binding international agreement (for the
first time) on measures to keep global warming below 2°C and
boost the transition towards resilient low carbon
societies/economies.
http://www.theclimatechangeguy.com.au

4. What is Australia’s commitment?
• Australia submitted its Intended Nationally Determined
Contribution (INDC) on 11 August 2015. In total 54 nations have
submitted INDCs
• Australia’s commitment was a reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030
• This builds on the commitment of a 5% reduction below 2000
levels by 2020 and Australia will have the largest reduction in
emissions intensity (emissions per $ GDP) and emissions per
capita (per head of population) in the world.
http://www.theclimatechangeguy.com.au

5. What is Australia’s commitment?
The Australian Government says their commitment is fair for the
following reasons:
• It represents significant progress beyond its 2020 target
(equivalent to a 13% reduction on 2005 levels)
• It doubles the rate of Australia’s emissions reduction and
reduces emissions per capita and per unit of GDP significantly
• It is comparable to other advanced economies across a number
of metrics.
http://www.theclimatechangeguy.com.au

6. How does it compare to the commitments of
other Governments?
• According to an analysis by the Climate Change Authority,
Australia’s commitment puts it towards the back of the pack
among developed countries (ahead of only Japan which has
been dealing with the Fukushima disaster)
• The Climate Change Authority recommended a 40-60%
reduction from 2000 levels.
http://www.theclimatechangeguy.com.au

7. How does it compare to the commitments of
other Governments?
Government Reduction on 2005 levels (%)
UK 61
Switzerland 51
Germany 45
Norway 44.5
US 35-39
EU 34
Canada 30
New Zealand 30
Australia 26-28
Japan 25

8. How does it compare to the commitments of
other Governments?
2030 Per Capita emissions for Governments that have submitted INDCs based on emission reduction targets.

9. Feedback on Australia’s commitment
Tony de Brum Foreign Minister of The Marshall Islands:
• a blow to Australia’s international reputation
• another example of Australian exceptionalism when it comes to
tackling the biggest economic, environmental and security
challenges of the 21st century
• if the rest of the world followed Australia’s lead, the Great
Barrier Reef would disappear, so would my country and the
other vulnerable atoll nations on Australia’s doorstep.
http://www.theclimatechangeguy.com.au

10. Feedback on Australia’s commitment
David Waskow International Climate Change Director at the
World Resources Institute:
• it would leave other countries (including developing countries)
having to pick up the slack
• the discouraging 2030 climate target is at odds with the severe
risks the country faces from climate impacts such as droughts
and wildfires
• the proposal stands in contrast with the more credible
commitments made by the European Union, the United States
and others thus far.
http://www.theclimatechangeguy.com.au

11. Feedback on Australia’s commitment
The Sydney Morning Herald, The Australian Financial Review
and Business Spectator have also given Australia’s commitment
less than favourable receptions.
http://www.theclimatechangeguy.com.au

12. What are the potential investment/trade
consequences?
• Many well known international businesses/brands are reviewing
their procurement and investment policies
• This review is part of a decarbonisation movement that is
gaining significant traction in the international business
community (except perhaps in Australia)
• As part of this review, businesses/brands are increasingly
choosing to procure goods/services from suppliers who
internally price carbon, measure and track greenhouse gas
emissions, implement and maintain reduction policies and
invest in renewable energy projects.
http://www.theclimatechangeguy.com.au

13. What are the potential investment/trade
consequences?
• Such businesses/brands can make such decisions as their
Governments have legislated and mandated robust policies and
incentivised such decisions/actions
• As a result of their decisions and emerging market forces, these
businesses/brands are not only decarbonising their operations,
they are also increasing their market share given their
enhanced/greener corporate image
• Given that the Australian Government hasn’t
legislated/mandated or incentivised such decisions/actions,
Australian companies are therefore at risk from their
international competitors.
http://www.theclimatechangeguy.com.au

14. References/links to further information
What is COP21/CMP11?
http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/cop21-cmp11/what-cop21-cmp11
Climate change
http://dfat.gov.au/international-relations/themes/climate-
change/pages/climate-change.aspx
UNFCCC submissions-Australia’s Intended Nationally Determined
Contribution to a new Climate Change Agreement August 2015
http://dfat.gov.au/international-relations/themes/climate-
change/submissions/Pages/australias-intended-nationally-determined-
contribution-to-a-new-climate-change-agreement-august-2015.aspx
http://www.theclimatechangeguy.com.au

15. References/links to further information
Australia disappoints with weak UN climate pledge
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/08/australia-disappoints-
with-weak-un-climate-pledge/
http://www.theclimatechangeguy.com.au

16. Thanks for your attention and I welcome questions.
http://www.theclimatechangeguy.com.au