In my presentation I have worked on how to detect the stage of a product in its life cycle. The ppt provides a brief description of the methodologies I have used and the importance of knowing the stage of a product in its life cycle. Any person who finds my analysis interesting and has any suggestions, please feel free to mail me.

1. UDAY THARAR i2 Technologies, Bangalore [email_address] Stage Detection of a Product in its Life Cycle

5. Introduction

8. Example-1

9. Example-2

10. Numerical Analysis

12. Numerical Analysis Phase Range (%) Introduction -10 to 10 Growth above 10 Maturity -10 to 10 Decline below -10

13. Example-3 Time Sales 4 week Moving Average 12 week Moving Average Difference b/w 4week & 12week Moving Average Difference as % of 12 week 4/1/2006 696 4/8/2006 251 4/15/2006 562 4/22/2006 612 530.25 4/29/2006 685 527.5 5/6/2006 1072 732.75 5/13/2006 1131 875 5/20/2006 1102 997.5 5/27/2006 1174 1119.75 6/3/2006 1410 1204.25 6/10/2006 1010 1174 6/17/2006 1117 1177.75 901.8333333 275.9166667 30.59508409 6/24/2006 840 1094.25 913.8333333 180.4166667 19.74284151 7/1/2006 753 930 955.6666667 -25.66666667 -2.685734217 7/8/2006 1007 929.25 992.75 -63.5 -6.396373709 7/15/2006 620 805 993.4166667 -188.4166667 -18.96652965 7/22/2006 859 809.75 1007.916667 -198.1666667 -19.66101695 7/29/2006 778 816 983.4166667 -167.4166667 -17.02398102 8/5/2006 739 749 950.75 -201.75 -21.2200894 8/12/2006 762 784.5 922.4166667 -137.9166667 -14.95166682 8/19/2006 809 772 892 -120 -13.4529148 8/26/2006 1241 887.75 877.9166667 9.833333333 1.120075937 9/2/2006 1661 1118.25 932.1666667 186.0833333 19.96245307 9/9/2006 1612 1330.75 973.4166667 357.3333333 36.70918586 9/16/2006 1773 1571.75 1051.166667 520.5833333 49.52433804 9/23/2006 1249 1573.75 1092.5 481.25 44.05034325 9/30/2006 1189 1455.75 1107.666667 348.0833333 31.42491724 10/7/2006 1170 1345.25 1153.5 191.75 16.62332033 10/14/2006 1302 1227.5 1190.416667 37.08333333 3.115155758 10/21/2006 1018 1169.75 1210.416667 -40.66666667 -3.359724613 10/28/2006 1282 1193 1255.666667 -62.66666667 -4.990708787 11/4/2006 1146 1187 1287.666667 -100.6666667 -7.817758219 11/11/2006 1936 1345.5 1381.583333 -36.08333333 -2.611737741

14. Example-3 11/18/2006 2152 1629 1457.5 171.5 11.76672384 11/25/2006 2171 1851.25 1500 351.25 23.41666667 12/2/2006 1793 2013 1515.083333 497.9166667 32.86397888 12/9/2006 1458 1893.5 1488.833333 404.6666667 27.18011866 12/16/2006 1298 1680 1492.916667 187.0833333 12.53139827 12/23/2006 2441 1747.5 1597.25 150.25 9.406792925 12/30/2006 1665 1715.5 1638.5 77 4.699420201 1/6/2007 1929 1833.25 1690.75 142.5 8.428212332 1/13/2007 1451 1871.5 1726.833333 144.6666667 8.377569733 1/20/2007 1795 1710 1769.583333 -59.58333333 -3.367082647 1/27/2007 2403 1894.5 1874.333333 20.16666667 1.075938111 2/3/2007 1392 1760.25 1829 -68.75 -3.758884636 2/10/2007 935 1631.25 1727.583333 -96.33333333 -5.576190246 2/17/2007 1057 1446.75 1634.75 -188 -11.50022939 2/24/2007 979 1090.75 1566.916667 -476.1666667 -30.38876775 3/3/2007 1001 993 1528.833333 -535.8333333 -35.04851194 3/10/2007 789 956.5 1486.416667 -529.9166667 -35.65061389 3/17/2007 1528 1074.25 1410.333333 -336.0833333 -23.83006381 3/24/2007 884 1050.5 1345.25 -294.75 -21.91042557 3/31/2007 404 901.25 1218.166667 -316.9166667 -26.01587084

15. The difference of the two moving averages is expressed as a percentage of the 12 week moving average. The average of this percentage for each phase is calculated. The following table is obtained— Numerical Analysis Stage Average Introduction -6.402038097 Growth 17.43608426 Maturity 5.878892704 Decline -21.5199509

21. Example-4