Recommended
Recommended
More Related Content
Viewers also liked
Viewers also liked (13)
Similar to ECAI 2014 Tutorial on a behavioral analysis tool for agent-based simulations (PET)
Similar to ECAI 2014 Tutorial on a behavioral analysis tool for agent-based simulations (PET) (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
ECAI 2014 Tutorial on a behavioral analysis tool for agent-based simulations (PET)
- 1. When Experimental and Computational Research Meet: The Participatory Extension Module v2.0 Richard O. Legendi, Tamás Máhr, László Gulyás, Rajmund Bocsi, Vilmos Kozma, Peter Rieger {rlegendi, tmahr, lgulyas, rbocsi, vkozma, prieger}@aitia.ai AITIA International, Inc. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union, Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. CRISIS-ICT-2011-288501.
- 2. Outline Background The CRISIS project Demo Usage GUI editor Future works 2
- 3. Background Traditional modeling approaches challenged (in economics and elsewhere) The concept of rationality in question The „wilderness of irrationality” Behavioral Economics attemps to collect empirical data on human (economic) behavior Recognized by Vernon Smith's Nobel prize Early / traditional behavioral experiments are carried out in small groups and with simple economies 3
- 4. Background, cont. Experiments with a large number of participants is hard to handle Programming complex market behavior (experimental scenarios) With complex agents With complex market interactions The technique of agent-based simulations lends itself naturally Some agents of an ABM are controlled by human subjects 4
- 5. Background, cont. 2 Agent-based models may also benefit from participatory experiments Sensitivity of system behavior can be tested Especially in case of learning / evolving agents (prone to co-evolve, converge too early) E.g., human agents in the SFI Artificial Stock Market Empirical data about individiual behavior Data collection, calibration, etc. 5
- 6. Background: The CRISIS Project “The CRISIS project addresses building a next generation macroeconomic and financial system policymaking model: a bottom-up agent-based simulation that fully accounts for the heterogeneity of households, firms, and government actors. The model will incorporate the latest evidence from behavioral economics in portraying agent behavior, and the CRISIS team will also collect new data on agent decision making using experimental economics techniques. While any model must make simplifying assumptions about human behavior, the CRISIS model will be significantly more realistic in its portrayal of relevant agent behavior than the current generation of policymaking models.” Crisis project description: https://www.crisis-economics.eu/ 6
- 7. 7 Web-based Game (Participatory Experiments) Economic Simulator (Cloud-Based Parameter Sweep Execution) Modelling Framework Models
- 8. PET v2.0 AITIA's PET Software since 2004 Participatory Extension Generalized components behind the CRISIS Game Modern, scalable infrastructure Previous version is 5+ years old Components may run on (several) different machines Software already available for any experiment 8
- 9. PET v2.0 Can be used: Locally Laboratory experiments Policy makers (scenario analysis with a proper model) On any webserver to run constantly Gather data (scores from model and all user actions replay) Dissemination Questionnaire module E.g., Verify if subjects understood the rules, etc. 9
- 10. Demo 10
- 11. The El Farol Bar Problem Agents are researchers (N=100) They visit a popular but small bar in Santa Fé If attendance > 60 (overcrowded) Who hasn’t come If attendance <= 60 Who hasn’t come Each day agents decide individually and in the same time W. Brian Arthur, “Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality”, American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), 84,406–411, 1994. 11
- 12. The El Farol Bar Problem MASON implementation of a NetLogo variant Artifical agents: ARMA-based prediction with history (Autoregressive moving-average model) Players have two actions: No go / go If +1 Score! Goal: get max score Rand, W. and Wilensky, U. (2007). NetLogo El Farol model. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. 12
- 15. Admin Page (Admins are subjects too) 15 Subject list (joined) Admin tools
- 16. In-experiment Admin Page 2013.06.10. 41st IIC World Congress, Social Interaction track 16 Player status (moved/waiting)
- 17. In-experiment Subject Page 17 Status messages
- 19. Usage 21
- 20. What is required to use? An ABM model PET is a generic framework Currently Java and MASON models are supported 22
- 21. What is required to use? An ABM model PET is a generic framework Currently Java and MASON models are supported Development of the web interface No restriction on tools (HTML5, GWT, ...) Communication to server by standardized tools (AJAX) Config files to map incoming messages to model actions 23
- 22. Architecture 24
- 23. Communication Messages translated to method calls (to the model or the controlled agent) can have arguments can have return values Triggered messages activated by the GUI send from the simulation to the GUI when triggered new turn player joined player acted exception ... 25
- 24. Simulation control discreet event-based simulation turns are defined by actions Action an agent message mapped to an agent method that is scheduled (possibly indirectly) has no return value takes no arguments Action alternative a method with the same name as an action has arguments 26
- 25. Architecture 27
- 26. GUI editor
- 27. Creating a GUI Pet2 Eclipse plugin based on GWT co-develop the mason model (Java project) and the GUI (Pet2 project) GWT designer extended/simplified charts data tables labels data source is configurable in property editors 29
- 29. Pet project wizard cont'd 31
- 30. Adding charts 32
- 31. Adding chart data sources 33
- 32. Tables and dynamic labels 34
- 33. Adding chart data sources 35
- 34. Pet GWT module Pet class facilitates communication between GUI and simulation register user (with agent type) send message activate triggered message responses are handled in callbacks 36
- 35. Future works
- 36. Future Works Tools to support front-end creation finish / improve eclipse plugin questionnaire Tutorials, docs to be developed Additional platforms +Your ideas? 38
- 37. Interested? „A New Set of Tools Supporting Agent-Based Economic Modeling”, EPIA 2013 Statistical and Behavioral Model Analysis Tools. Hands-on workshop @ ESSA 2013 Hands-on workshop @ ECAI 2014 Hands-on workshop @ ESSA 2014 39
- 38. THANK YOU! Questions? Will be available soon from http://iaws.aitia.ai/ Download the software: http://mass.aitia.ai/documentation/tutorials Try the CRISIS Game http://game.crisis-economics.eu Take a look on the El Farol model: http://github.com/rlegendi/mason-examples 40 The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union, Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. CRISIS-ICT-2011-288501.
Editor's Notes
- Harmonized library, Game, policymaking model