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The impact of the revision of
the EPBD on energy savings from
the use of building automation
and control systems (BACS)
Paul Waide, Director, WSE
Leonardo Energy BACS Academy webinar
December 17th 2019
Structure of presentation
1. The revision of the EPBD and aims of the study
2. Characterising BACS technology and functions
 building automation control technology and related devices
 savings opportunities
3. Methodology applied in the study
 Characterisation of the European building stock & BACS
 Modelling, projections & scenarios
4. Findings from the analysis and savings potentials
 results from long range scenarios in terms of energy, economic
factors and CO2
2
Background to the presentation
• The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was
revised in 2018 and includes a number of additional aspects
which aims to further improve the energy efficiency of Europes
buildings
• It recognises that effective control of technical building systems
(space heating, space cooling, sanitary hot water, ventilation
and lighting) is an essential element of overall system efficiency
and holds a significant and cost-effective energy saving
potential
• Its predecessor (the 2010 version) only included rather indirect
or ambiguous encouragement to improve building energy
performance through better control of technical building
systems
• The revised Directive addresses this deficiency by adding a
number of policy measures that better target monitoring and
control of building energy systems
3
The EPBD impact assessment
• The impacts of the revisions to the EPBD were estimated in
the formal impact assessment
• This was conducted ahead of and in parallel with the
regulatory discussions (to inform them) and hence does not
perfectly reflect all the final provisions
• In particular the parts that concern the BACS provisions were
rather glossed over and hence its not possible to distinguish
the specific impacts that these are expected to bring
• For this reason the European BACS industry association
eu.bac commissioned WSE to do a specific analysis to
determine these impacts
4
Background to the study
• For this reason the European BACS industry association
eu.bac commissioned WSE to do a specific analysis to
determine these impacts
• The intention is to enable the contribution of the BACS
measures to be identified independently of the other
measures within the revised EPBD so their specific relevance
to the broader policy objectives can be more transparent
• Work got underway in 2018 and concluded with the issuing of
the report in summer 2019
5
Study reference:
The Impact of the revision of
the EPBD on energy savings
from the use of building
automation and controls
Available at:
https://www.eubac.org/cms/u
pload/downloads/position_pap
ers/EPBD_impacts_from_buildin
g_automation_controls.pdf
6
Major working assumptions
• The principal working assumption behind the analysis
presented in this study is that EU Member States will fully
respect the requirements
• This means in the spirit of their implementation as well as
the legally permissible interpretation – to this end eu.bac has
produced a set if guideline documents – the working
hypothesis in the study is that these guidelines are respected
• Full alignment to the formal impact assessment – so that a
priori it is assumed all changes in the building stock including
the energy systems and usage, are the same as set out in the
formal impact assessment – this allows isolation and
comparison of the effect of the BACs related measures
compared to those due to the other EPBD measures
7
Eu.bac guidelines on EPBD transposition
8
Available at:
https://www.eubac.
org/home/index.ht
ml
Summary of provisions in the revised
EPBD that concern BACS
 Mandatory requirements for installation and retrofit of Building Automation
and Control Systems (BACS) in non-residential buildings (existing and new)
with effective rated output of over 290 kW, by 2025 (within the amended
Articles 14 and 15)
 Incentives for installation of continuous electronic energy performance
monitoring and effective HVAC controls in existing and new multifamily
buildings (within the amended Articles 14 and 15)
 Requirements for the installation of individual room temperature controls
such as TRVs and IZC in new buildings and alongside the replacement of
heat generators in existing buildings (within the amended Article 8)
 Non-residential and residential buildings equipped with BACS and
electronic monitoring, respectively, are exempted from physical
inspections of Heating and Air-Conditioning Systems (within the amended
Articles 14 and 15)
9
Summary of provisions in the revised
EPBD that concern BACS
 Optimisation of performance under typical or average (real-life) part load
operating conditions including dynamic hydraulic balancing (mentioned in
the Recitation)
 Reinforced requirements on optimizing the performance of TBS i.a. with
controls (within the amended Article 8)
 Definition of BACS according to the European Standards in the Directive
(within the amended Article 2)
10
BACS help to manage…
• mechanical heating and hot water systems
• mechanical ventilation
• cooling and air conditioning
• natural ventilation systems, particularly motorised windows and
dampers, often combined with mechanical systems in ‘mixed mode’
design, and motorised shading
• lighting, including timing, occupancy detection, mood-setting,
dimming and daylight integration, together with exterior lighting
• electrical systems, including time control, demand management and
standby systems
• metering and monitoring systems, including heat and flow meters
where appropriate
• communications, safety and security systems
• services to special areas and equipment, e.g. server rooms
11
Systems hardware includes…
• Sensors, provide analogue signals for temperature, humidity,
pressure, etc. to controllers/outstations
• Thermostats, Humidistats, Pressure Switches either perform control
functions direct to plant or via valves, etc. or provide digital signals
to outstations/controllers for limit functions, etc.
• Actuators, modulate valves, dampers, etc. via analogue or reversible
motor signals. Actuators can also be two position for zone valves, etc.
• Controllers or outstations, receive signals from sensors and/or send
signals to plant and actuators. These may be single-purpose e.g. a
domestic heating programmer or a temperature controller for a fan-
coil unit, or multi-functional e.g. a typical BMS outstation, with a
number of digital and analogue inputs and outputs that can be
programmed to suit the specific installation
• Supervisors, link to the network and allow the status of plant and
outstations/controllers to be monitored/reset via graphics, trend
logs, etc.
12
Benefits of BACS
Correctly designed, installed and operated BACS will control building
services installations to:
• better regulate indoor conditions and services
• reduce energy consumption and running costs
• ensure equipment operates only when, where and to the extent it is
actually required
• reduce ventilation and cooling requirements that arise when heat-
producing equipment (e.g. lighting and motors) is used unnecessarily
• monitor systems and optimise their performance
• advise of problems, providing not just failure alarms but alerts to
wasteful and unintended operation
• reduce levels of wear and tear and the costs of maintenance, repairs
and replacement
13
European Standard EN15232 on the energy
performance of BACS
It includes:
• a detailed list of the control, building automation and technical
building management functions which have an impact on building
energy performance
• a methodology to enable the definition of minimum requirements
regarding the control, building automation and technical building
management functions to be implemented in buildings of different
complexities
• detailed methods to assess the impact of these functions on the
energy performance of a given building. These methods facilitate
accounting for the impact of these functions in the calculation of
whole building energy performance ratings
• a simplified method to get a first estimation of the impact of these
functions on the energy performance of typical buildings
14
Space heating services treated in EN15232
15
Section Type of control service Notes on the control scope and objectives
1.1 Emission control The control function is applied to the heat emitter (radiators,
underfloor heating, fan-coil unit, indoor unit) at room level; for
type 1 one function can control several rooms
1.2 Emission control for TABS
(heating mode)
1.3 Control of distribution network
hot water temperature (supply
or return)
Similar function can be applied to the control of direct electric
heating networks
1.4 Control of distribution pumps in
networks
The controlled pumps can be installed at different levels in the
network. Control is to reduce the auxiliary energy demand of the
pumps
1.5 Intermittent control of
emission and/or distribution
One controller can control different rooms/zones having same
occupancy patterns
1.6 Heat generator control for
combustion and district heating
The goal consists generally in minimizing the heat generator
operation temperature
1.7 Heat generator control (heat
pump)
The goal consists generally in minimizing the heat generator
operation temperature and by this in maximizing the heat
generator efficiency
1.8 Heat generator control
(outdoor unit)
The goal consists generally in maximizing the heat generator
efficiency
1.9 Sequencing of different heat
generators
This control function only applies to a system with a set of
different heat generator sizes or types including Renewable Energy
Sources
1.10 Control of Thermal Energy
Storage (TES) charging
The TES is part of the heating system
BACS Energy performance classes and
EN 15232
 The EU standard EN15232 defines BACS energy performance
classes that classify the energy impact of less to more
sophisticated BACS solutions from D to A per type of
technical building system (TBS)
 It then used the results of a great many detailed building
simulations to map these to average energy performance
factors (BACS factors) depending on the type of TBS the BACS
applies to, the TBS configuration, fuel and building type
 These BACS factors show how the relative energy
consumption of a given TBS/building-type combination will
vary as a function of the BACS energy performance class (D to
A) where class C is the reference
16
Establishment of comparatively
homogenous regions
Approach - establish a set of EU regions and allocate the building stock (by
type, area, and associated energy consumption) for each region. Establish a
distribution of baseline BACS efficiency classes according to the simplified
method in EN15232 ascribed per building type and region
Three regions – (based on development of BACs markets. climate and building
stock similarity):
• EU West
• EU South
• EU North
Note, within each region distribution of BACS (by class D to A) per building type will be
ascribed
17
Regional groupings used in the EPBD Impact
Assessment
18
Treatment by building types
The building types considered were chosen to include a mixture of residential
and commercial sector buildings distinguished according to the following
types:
• Single family homes
• Multi-family residences
• Offices
• Retail outlets
• Education establishments
• Healthcare sector buildings
• Hospitality sector buildings
• Other
19
Other BACS data sources include:
a) Building Automation: the Scope for Energy and CO2 Savings in the EU,
http://www.leonardo-energy.org/resources/249/building-automation-the-
scopeforenergy-and-co2-savings-in--57f7a23e8b452
b) Optimising the energy use of technical building systems – unleashing the
power of the EPBD’s Article 8, https://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-
2017-optimising-theenergyuse-of-tbs-final-report.pdf
c) Ecodesign preparatory scoping study for Building Automation and Control
Systems (BACS) implementing the Ecodesign Working Plan 2016 -2019
Ecodesign scoping study for BACS (http://www.ecodesignbacs.eu/)
d) Short Study Energy Savings Digital Heating (in German),
https://www.bdhkoeln.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Publikationen/energieei
nsparungen_dig itale_heizung_ 2017_01_12.pdf
20
Modelling the building stock and defining
the base case
Objective to segment EU building stock by region, building type and BACS
efficiency class (as per the simplified method of EN15232) to define the start
point for the scenarios wherein the impact of EPBD measures can be assessed
• WSE assembled and organized data on the existing EU building stock
• made use of available data sets that will allow sufficient granularity to
conduct the analysis e.g. the EU building stock observatory data
• these include previous detailed EU building stock estimation studies WSE
have been engaged in, as well as publicly available data and literature
review
• In addition, a survey conducted among of eu.bac members to derive best
estimates of the current distribution of EN15232 BACS classes by TBS and
building type across the EU
21
Rules of thumb help gauge likely market
maturities for BACS and future evolutions
22
Scenarios considered
Two scenarios were developed to consider the impact of the BACS
measures within the EPBD:
• EPBD compliant scenario (which is compliant with the recast EPBD
including with regard to the BACS-related policy measures)
• EPBD compliant without BACS scenario (same as the above except
that the BACS-related policy measures are not implemented)
• EPBD compliant with Frozen BACS scenario (as above but BACS do
not evolve)
The first scenario complies with all the provisions of the EPBD and this
can be considered to be EPBD compliant. It is directly equivalent to the
“Agreed Amendments” pathway reported in the EPBD Impact Assessment
The difference in impacts between the first two scenarios gives the
estimated impact of the BACS measures within the revised EPBD
23
Mapping the EPBD BACS measures to BACS
installation and replacement events
In an ordinary progression BACS may be installed whenever:
a) there is a new construction event (e.g. a new build or major
renovation project)
b) a technical building system (TBS) is renewed or replaced, or
c) as an add-on or improvement to existing control systems
• some form of BACS are almost always installed for case a) so such
events are effectively a trigger point for new BACS in ~100% of cases
• case b) will often result in renewal of BACS, at least the part of the
BACS which control the TBS in question
• case c) is the rarest case for BACS renewal
24
Mapping the EPBD BACS measures to BACS
installation and replacement events
The methodology simulates the expected response for BACS performance
at each trigger event under the scenarios
• For the EPBD compliant scenario it is assumed the EPBD BACS
measures are fully respected and implemented in line with the eu.bac
guidelines
• For the EPBD compliant with Frozen BACS scenario it is assumed
there are no changes in BACS performance with each trigger event
• For the EPBD compliant without BACS scenario it is assumed that the
BACS progress in line with a business as usual trend (consistent with
previous EU studies, such as the case assumed in the Smart Readiness
Indicator technical study)
Note, the EPBD measures also accelerate the trigger events for non-
residential buildings with >290kW of installed capacity
25
Evolution in space heating BACS class for space
heating in single family homes
Western region under the EPBD compliant with no BACS scenario
26
BACS class 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
A 0.5% 2.0% 3.5% 5.2% 7.0% 8.9% 10.9%
B 6.5% 9.8% 12.8% 15.4% 17.7% 19.7% 21.4%
C 78.4% 74.5% 70.7% 67.2% 63.8% 60.6% 57.5%
D 9.8% 9.2% 8.7% 8.1% 7.7% 7.2% 6.8%
No BACS 4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4%
Evolution in space heating BACS class for space
heating in single family homes
Western region under the EPBD compliant scenario (i.e. with BACS)
27
BACS class 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
A 1.9% 6.5% 11.2% 15.8% 20.2% 24.5% 28.6%
B 12.2% 26.7% 36.9% 43.9% 48.5% 51.2% 52.5%
C 72.4% 56.4% 44.0% 34.2% 26.7% 20.8% 16.2%
D 9.0% 6.9% 5.3% 4.0% 3.1% 2.4% 1.8%
No BACS 4.5% 3.4% 2.6% 2.0% 1.5% 1.2% 0.9%
Total final energy consumption by building
type under the EPBD compliant scenario
28
Total final energy consumption by building
type under the three scenarios
29
Savings in total final energy consumption
by building type due to the BACS measures
30
Savings from EPBD BACS measures
compared to the Frozen BACS scenario
31
Percentage savings in total primary energy
due to the BACS measures
32
Percentage savings in primary energy by fuel
and building type due to the BACS measures
33
Savings in CO2 emissions due to the revised
EPBD BACS measures
34
Additional investment in BACS due to the
revised EPBD measures
35
Avoided energy bills due to the revised EPBD
measures
36
Summary & conclusions
• The revised EPBD can be considered to be the first time the EU has
applied policy measures to promote energy savings from BACS in a
wholistic manner
• The aim of the study was to model the impact of the revised EPBD
provisions for BACS to aim to determine the impact that the BACS
measures would be expected to deliver assuming that they are fully
respected
• It is intended to complement the findings from the broader revised
EPBD impact assessment which did not explicitly address the energy
savings and other impacts related exclusively to the BACS-related
policy measures
37
Summary & conclusions
• it finds that if fully respected the BACS related policy measures would
be expected to produce very substantial energy savings in the EU
building stock, of the order of 14% of the building stock’s primary
energy consumption
• The value of the energy savings which would be attained are
approximately 9 times the cost of the investments required and hence
are highly cost-effective
• These are roughly consistent with an average evolution to BACS class
B capabilities so the savings could be roughly doubled again were
class A to be achieved
38
Task 1. Building stock data sources
39
Task 1. Building stock data sources
40
a) Data on the prevalence and energy consumption and performance of
equipment are available through the Ecodesign Impact Assessments and the
Ecodesign Impact Accounting Status Reports.
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/studies/ecodesign-impact-accounting-0
b) EU Building Stock Observatory https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/eubuildings
c) EU Build-up website
d) Ecofys (2016) Final Report ' Assessment of policy options for the review of
Directive 2010/31/EU', Prepared for the European Commission contract
ENER/C3/2012409/FV2015523, 2016
e) Fraunhofer EC (2016) Final Report, 'Mapping and analyses of the current and
future (2020 - 2030) heating/cooling fuel deployment (fossil/renewables)',
prepared European Commission under contract N°ENER/C2/2014-641, 2016
f) VHK EC (2014) Final report 'Average EU building heat load for HVAC
equipment', VHK, 2014
Data sources – EPCs, EEOs, general
41
a) Deutsches Institut für Bautechnik – DIB holds a central EPC register for
Germany https://www.dibt.de/de/wir-bieten/enev-registrierstelle
b) France – National database Diagnostic de Performance Energétique +
certificates blanches (Ademe)
c) Italy – SHAPE a multi-tier web portal that allows regions to access and
analyse their own raw data, and other users (citizens, trades, local
authorities) to retrieve aggregated data. These data will be analysed and
published by ENEA
d) Etc…
EPC class by building category – example of
UK non-res buildings
42
EPC class by building category – often
weakly correlated with actual energy use
Example of UK non-res buildings
43

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The impact of the revision of the EPBD on energy savings from the use of BACS

  • 1. The impact of the revision of the EPBD on energy savings from the use of building automation and control systems (BACS) Paul Waide, Director, WSE Leonardo Energy BACS Academy webinar December 17th 2019
  • 2. Structure of presentation 1. The revision of the EPBD and aims of the study 2. Characterising BACS technology and functions  building automation control technology and related devices  savings opportunities 3. Methodology applied in the study  Characterisation of the European building stock & BACS  Modelling, projections & scenarios 4. Findings from the analysis and savings potentials  results from long range scenarios in terms of energy, economic factors and CO2 2
  • 3. Background to the presentation • The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was revised in 2018 and includes a number of additional aspects which aims to further improve the energy efficiency of Europes buildings • It recognises that effective control of technical building systems (space heating, space cooling, sanitary hot water, ventilation and lighting) is an essential element of overall system efficiency and holds a significant and cost-effective energy saving potential • Its predecessor (the 2010 version) only included rather indirect or ambiguous encouragement to improve building energy performance through better control of technical building systems • The revised Directive addresses this deficiency by adding a number of policy measures that better target monitoring and control of building energy systems 3
  • 4. The EPBD impact assessment • The impacts of the revisions to the EPBD were estimated in the formal impact assessment • This was conducted ahead of and in parallel with the regulatory discussions (to inform them) and hence does not perfectly reflect all the final provisions • In particular the parts that concern the BACS provisions were rather glossed over and hence its not possible to distinguish the specific impacts that these are expected to bring • For this reason the European BACS industry association eu.bac commissioned WSE to do a specific analysis to determine these impacts 4
  • 5. Background to the study • For this reason the European BACS industry association eu.bac commissioned WSE to do a specific analysis to determine these impacts • The intention is to enable the contribution of the BACS measures to be identified independently of the other measures within the revised EPBD so their specific relevance to the broader policy objectives can be more transparent • Work got underway in 2018 and concluded with the issuing of the report in summer 2019 5
  • 6. Study reference: The Impact of the revision of the EPBD on energy savings from the use of building automation and controls Available at: https://www.eubac.org/cms/u pload/downloads/position_pap ers/EPBD_impacts_from_buildin g_automation_controls.pdf 6
  • 7. Major working assumptions • The principal working assumption behind the analysis presented in this study is that EU Member States will fully respect the requirements • This means in the spirit of their implementation as well as the legally permissible interpretation – to this end eu.bac has produced a set if guideline documents – the working hypothesis in the study is that these guidelines are respected • Full alignment to the formal impact assessment – so that a priori it is assumed all changes in the building stock including the energy systems and usage, are the same as set out in the formal impact assessment – this allows isolation and comparison of the effect of the BACs related measures compared to those due to the other EPBD measures 7
  • 8. Eu.bac guidelines on EPBD transposition 8 Available at: https://www.eubac. org/home/index.ht ml
  • 9. Summary of provisions in the revised EPBD that concern BACS  Mandatory requirements for installation and retrofit of Building Automation and Control Systems (BACS) in non-residential buildings (existing and new) with effective rated output of over 290 kW, by 2025 (within the amended Articles 14 and 15)  Incentives for installation of continuous electronic energy performance monitoring and effective HVAC controls in existing and new multifamily buildings (within the amended Articles 14 and 15)  Requirements for the installation of individual room temperature controls such as TRVs and IZC in new buildings and alongside the replacement of heat generators in existing buildings (within the amended Article 8)  Non-residential and residential buildings equipped with BACS and electronic monitoring, respectively, are exempted from physical inspections of Heating and Air-Conditioning Systems (within the amended Articles 14 and 15) 9
  • 10. Summary of provisions in the revised EPBD that concern BACS  Optimisation of performance under typical or average (real-life) part load operating conditions including dynamic hydraulic balancing (mentioned in the Recitation)  Reinforced requirements on optimizing the performance of TBS i.a. with controls (within the amended Article 8)  Definition of BACS according to the European Standards in the Directive (within the amended Article 2) 10
  • 11. BACS help to manage… • mechanical heating and hot water systems • mechanical ventilation • cooling and air conditioning • natural ventilation systems, particularly motorised windows and dampers, often combined with mechanical systems in ‘mixed mode’ design, and motorised shading • lighting, including timing, occupancy detection, mood-setting, dimming and daylight integration, together with exterior lighting • electrical systems, including time control, demand management and standby systems • metering and monitoring systems, including heat and flow meters where appropriate • communications, safety and security systems • services to special areas and equipment, e.g. server rooms 11
  • 12. Systems hardware includes… • Sensors, provide analogue signals for temperature, humidity, pressure, etc. to controllers/outstations • Thermostats, Humidistats, Pressure Switches either perform control functions direct to plant or via valves, etc. or provide digital signals to outstations/controllers for limit functions, etc. • Actuators, modulate valves, dampers, etc. via analogue or reversible motor signals. Actuators can also be two position for zone valves, etc. • Controllers or outstations, receive signals from sensors and/or send signals to plant and actuators. These may be single-purpose e.g. a domestic heating programmer or a temperature controller for a fan- coil unit, or multi-functional e.g. a typical BMS outstation, with a number of digital and analogue inputs and outputs that can be programmed to suit the specific installation • Supervisors, link to the network and allow the status of plant and outstations/controllers to be monitored/reset via graphics, trend logs, etc. 12
  • 13. Benefits of BACS Correctly designed, installed and operated BACS will control building services installations to: • better regulate indoor conditions and services • reduce energy consumption and running costs • ensure equipment operates only when, where and to the extent it is actually required • reduce ventilation and cooling requirements that arise when heat- producing equipment (e.g. lighting and motors) is used unnecessarily • monitor systems and optimise their performance • advise of problems, providing not just failure alarms but alerts to wasteful and unintended operation • reduce levels of wear and tear and the costs of maintenance, repairs and replacement 13
  • 14. European Standard EN15232 on the energy performance of BACS It includes: • a detailed list of the control, building automation and technical building management functions which have an impact on building energy performance • a methodology to enable the definition of minimum requirements regarding the control, building automation and technical building management functions to be implemented in buildings of different complexities • detailed methods to assess the impact of these functions on the energy performance of a given building. These methods facilitate accounting for the impact of these functions in the calculation of whole building energy performance ratings • a simplified method to get a first estimation of the impact of these functions on the energy performance of typical buildings 14
  • 15. Space heating services treated in EN15232 15 Section Type of control service Notes on the control scope and objectives 1.1 Emission control The control function is applied to the heat emitter (radiators, underfloor heating, fan-coil unit, indoor unit) at room level; for type 1 one function can control several rooms 1.2 Emission control for TABS (heating mode) 1.3 Control of distribution network hot water temperature (supply or return) Similar function can be applied to the control of direct electric heating networks 1.4 Control of distribution pumps in networks The controlled pumps can be installed at different levels in the network. Control is to reduce the auxiliary energy demand of the pumps 1.5 Intermittent control of emission and/or distribution One controller can control different rooms/zones having same occupancy patterns 1.6 Heat generator control for combustion and district heating The goal consists generally in minimizing the heat generator operation temperature 1.7 Heat generator control (heat pump) The goal consists generally in minimizing the heat generator operation temperature and by this in maximizing the heat generator efficiency 1.8 Heat generator control (outdoor unit) The goal consists generally in maximizing the heat generator efficiency 1.9 Sequencing of different heat generators This control function only applies to a system with a set of different heat generator sizes or types including Renewable Energy Sources 1.10 Control of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) charging The TES is part of the heating system
  • 16. BACS Energy performance classes and EN 15232  The EU standard EN15232 defines BACS energy performance classes that classify the energy impact of less to more sophisticated BACS solutions from D to A per type of technical building system (TBS)  It then used the results of a great many detailed building simulations to map these to average energy performance factors (BACS factors) depending on the type of TBS the BACS applies to, the TBS configuration, fuel and building type  These BACS factors show how the relative energy consumption of a given TBS/building-type combination will vary as a function of the BACS energy performance class (D to A) where class C is the reference 16
  • 17. Establishment of comparatively homogenous regions Approach - establish a set of EU regions and allocate the building stock (by type, area, and associated energy consumption) for each region. Establish a distribution of baseline BACS efficiency classes according to the simplified method in EN15232 ascribed per building type and region Three regions – (based on development of BACs markets. climate and building stock similarity): • EU West • EU South • EU North Note, within each region distribution of BACS (by class D to A) per building type will be ascribed 17
  • 18. Regional groupings used in the EPBD Impact Assessment 18
  • 19. Treatment by building types The building types considered were chosen to include a mixture of residential and commercial sector buildings distinguished according to the following types: • Single family homes • Multi-family residences • Offices • Retail outlets • Education establishments • Healthcare sector buildings • Hospitality sector buildings • Other 19
  • 20. Other BACS data sources include: a) Building Automation: the Scope for Energy and CO2 Savings in the EU, http://www.leonardo-energy.org/resources/249/building-automation-the- scopeforenergy-and-co2-savings-in--57f7a23e8b452 b) Optimising the energy use of technical building systems – unleashing the power of the EPBD’s Article 8, https://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys- 2017-optimising-theenergyuse-of-tbs-final-report.pdf c) Ecodesign preparatory scoping study for Building Automation and Control Systems (BACS) implementing the Ecodesign Working Plan 2016 -2019 Ecodesign scoping study for BACS (http://www.ecodesignbacs.eu/) d) Short Study Energy Savings Digital Heating (in German), https://www.bdhkoeln.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Publikationen/energieei nsparungen_dig itale_heizung_ 2017_01_12.pdf 20
  • 21. Modelling the building stock and defining the base case Objective to segment EU building stock by region, building type and BACS efficiency class (as per the simplified method of EN15232) to define the start point for the scenarios wherein the impact of EPBD measures can be assessed • WSE assembled and organized data on the existing EU building stock • made use of available data sets that will allow sufficient granularity to conduct the analysis e.g. the EU building stock observatory data • these include previous detailed EU building stock estimation studies WSE have been engaged in, as well as publicly available data and literature review • In addition, a survey conducted among of eu.bac members to derive best estimates of the current distribution of EN15232 BACS classes by TBS and building type across the EU 21
  • 22. Rules of thumb help gauge likely market maturities for BACS and future evolutions 22
  • 23. Scenarios considered Two scenarios were developed to consider the impact of the BACS measures within the EPBD: • EPBD compliant scenario (which is compliant with the recast EPBD including with regard to the BACS-related policy measures) • EPBD compliant without BACS scenario (same as the above except that the BACS-related policy measures are not implemented) • EPBD compliant with Frozen BACS scenario (as above but BACS do not evolve) The first scenario complies with all the provisions of the EPBD and this can be considered to be EPBD compliant. It is directly equivalent to the “Agreed Amendments” pathway reported in the EPBD Impact Assessment The difference in impacts between the first two scenarios gives the estimated impact of the BACS measures within the revised EPBD 23
  • 24. Mapping the EPBD BACS measures to BACS installation and replacement events In an ordinary progression BACS may be installed whenever: a) there is a new construction event (e.g. a new build or major renovation project) b) a technical building system (TBS) is renewed or replaced, or c) as an add-on or improvement to existing control systems • some form of BACS are almost always installed for case a) so such events are effectively a trigger point for new BACS in ~100% of cases • case b) will often result in renewal of BACS, at least the part of the BACS which control the TBS in question • case c) is the rarest case for BACS renewal 24
  • 25. Mapping the EPBD BACS measures to BACS installation and replacement events The methodology simulates the expected response for BACS performance at each trigger event under the scenarios • For the EPBD compliant scenario it is assumed the EPBD BACS measures are fully respected and implemented in line with the eu.bac guidelines • For the EPBD compliant with Frozen BACS scenario it is assumed there are no changes in BACS performance with each trigger event • For the EPBD compliant without BACS scenario it is assumed that the BACS progress in line with a business as usual trend (consistent with previous EU studies, such as the case assumed in the Smart Readiness Indicator technical study) Note, the EPBD measures also accelerate the trigger events for non- residential buildings with >290kW of installed capacity 25
  • 26. Evolution in space heating BACS class for space heating in single family homes Western region under the EPBD compliant with no BACS scenario 26 BACS class 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 A 0.5% 2.0% 3.5% 5.2% 7.0% 8.9% 10.9% B 6.5% 9.8% 12.8% 15.4% 17.7% 19.7% 21.4% C 78.4% 74.5% 70.7% 67.2% 63.8% 60.6% 57.5% D 9.8% 9.2% 8.7% 8.1% 7.7% 7.2% 6.8% No BACS 4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4%
  • 27. Evolution in space heating BACS class for space heating in single family homes Western region under the EPBD compliant scenario (i.e. with BACS) 27 BACS class 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 A 1.9% 6.5% 11.2% 15.8% 20.2% 24.5% 28.6% B 12.2% 26.7% 36.9% 43.9% 48.5% 51.2% 52.5% C 72.4% 56.4% 44.0% 34.2% 26.7% 20.8% 16.2% D 9.0% 6.9% 5.3% 4.0% 3.1% 2.4% 1.8% No BACS 4.5% 3.4% 2.6% 2.0% 1.5% 1.2% 0.9%
  • 28. Total final energy consumption by building type under the EPBD compliant scenario 28
  • 29. Total final energy consumption by building type under the three scenarios 29
  • 30. Savings in total final energy consumption by building type due to the BACS measures 30
  • 31. Savings from EPBD BACS measures compared to the Frozen BACS scenario 31
  • 32. Percentage savings in total primary energy due to the BACS measures 32
  • 33. Percentage savings in primary energy by fuel and building type due to the BACS measures 33
  • 34. Savings in CO2 emissions due to the revised EPBD BACS measures 34
  • 35. Additional investment in BACS due to the revised EPBD measures 35
  • 36. Avoided energy bills due to the revised EPBD measures 36
  • 37. Summary & conclusions • The revised EPBD can be considered to be the first time the EU has applied policy measures to promote energy savings from BACS in a wholistic manner • The aim of the study was to model the impact of the revised EPBD provisions for BACS to aim to determine the impact that the BACS measures would be expected to deliver assuming that they are fully respected • It is intended to complement the findings from the broader revised EPBD impact assessment which did not explicitly address the energy savings and other impacts related exclusively to the BACS-related policy measures 37
  • 38. Summary & conclusions • it finds that if fully respected the BACS related policy measures would be expected to produce very substantial energy savings in the EU building stock, of the order of 14% of the building stock’s primary energy consumption • The value of the energy savings which would be attained are approximately 9 times the cost of the investments required and hence are highly cost-effective • These are roughly consistent with an average evolution to BACS class B capabilities so the savings could be roughly doubled again were class A to be achieved 38
  • 39. Task 1. Building stock data sources 39
  • 40. Task 1. Building stock data sources 40 a) Data on the prevalence and energy consumption and performance of equipment are available through the Ecodesign Impact Assessments and the Ecodesign Impact Accounting Status Reports. https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/studies/ecodesign-impact-accounting-0 b) EU Building Stock Observatory https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/eubuildings c) EU Build-up website d) Ecofys (2016) Final Report ' Assessment of policy options for the review of Directive 2010/31/EU', Prepared for the European Commission contract ENER/C3/2012409/FV2015523, 2016 e) Fraunhofer EC (2016) Final Report, 'Mapping and analyses of the current and future (2020 - 2030) heating/cooling fuel deployment (fossil/renewables)', prepared European Commission under contract N°ENER/C2/2014-641, 2016 f) VHK EC (2014) Final report 'Average EU building heat load for HVAC equipment', VHK, 2014
  • 41. Data sources – EPCs, EEOs, general 41 a) Deutsches Institut für Bautechnik – DIB holds a central EPC register for Germany https://www.dibt.de/de/wir-bieten/enev-registrierstelle b) France – National database Diagnostic de Performance Energétique + certificates blanches (Ademe) c) Italy – SHAPE a multi-tier web portal that allows regions to access and analyse their own raw data, and other users (citizens, trades, local authorities) to retrieve aggregated data. These data will be analysed and published by ENEA d) Etc…
  • 42. EPC class by building category – example of UK non-res buildings 42
  • 43. EPC class by building category – often weakly correlated with actual energy use Example of UK non-res buildings 43